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John's World
Saturday, March 31, 2007
  For the love of God, Scotty - beam him up!!

Jeez - Shatner couldn't deliver a line coherently before Star Trek either.

 
 
Really bad timing...

I have been posting about the animal rights movement and its possible impact on livestock production in the US. We have also been reporting on the ongoing pet-food contamination uproar (see this week's USFR).

What if the two issues began to overlap?
If you think of dogs and cats as members of the family, you might figure you could collect damages for pain and suffering if they were to die because of wrongdoing.

The law in California and many other states sees things differently. Pets are treated as personal property, like cars and computers.

But that could be changing, as contaminated pet food is believed to be responsible for the deaths of dozens of dogs and cats nationwide.

"You'll see a lot of pressure on legislators to remove liability barriers, to not see these animals as property but as entities like humans," said Jon Katz, the author of several books on the changing relationship between dogs and people. [More]

Once companion animals achieve "family" status, it could conceivably raise all animals' legal position, just by comparison. Not necessarily to companion status, but some vague slightly less non-human category. I don't want to seem Cassandra-like, but if we see hundreds of thousands of lawsuits over the pet food, those attorneys won't have to look far for their next targets.

To date, we have somehow managed to differentiate between companion animals and food animals.
The twentieth century has most certainly borne witness to the exploitation of animal resources upon a scale far grander than ever before. The most striking development - as animal rights activists are keen to point out - is the way in which the cleft between ourselves and agricultural animals has grown as these animals have been increasingly accorded the status of `machines', through the development of the intensive farming methods deemed necessary to meet ever-growing human food demands. Yet whilst the divide between ourselves and food-producing animals has continued to expand, our identification with and dependence upon the smaller, more cuddly species that we keep as pets has also grown. We increasingly keep pets to satisfy our emotional, rather than material, needs and seem to gain tactile comfort and trust from them which might not be found elsewhere in our modern lives. This development has led the birth of small animal medicine and the pet food industry, both of which have done increasingly booming business since 1945. However, even the seemingly innocuous family pet that lurks in our homes, gardens and public parks can be potentially detrimental to our health. For example, pet animal excrement is not only an environmental nuisance, but can also harbour unpleasant infections, such as toxoplasmosis and toxocara, which can seriously threaten human health. Pets can also expose people to a variety of bacterial infections and cause severe allergies. Rigorous animal management and veterinary controls greatly minimise the risks that pet animals pose to human health. Yet again providing evidence of the efficacy of the modern veterinary regime in reducing the potential risks posed by our intimacy with and exploitation of other species. [More]
I'm not sure that separation can persist. And this further convinces me that petting zoos are a really, really, bad idea for animal agriculture.

It may also be useful to speculate where this greater attachment to animals arises. Is it because we have fewer children? More money? A new perspective on how religion applies? An all-living-things-together attitude? A response to the trauma of our lives? A lack of human contact?

My uneasy guess: All of the above.

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Thursday, March 29, 2007
 
Not America's first choice...

I stumbled across this throughly charming blog by chance, and before I'd noticed had read several months of entries. The narrative struck me as well voiced and written, certainly more than adequate to describe a way of life that would strike many as irresistible. (BTW, for another great rural writer of similar vein only funnier, check out Brent Olson) His farm is in a beautiful rural location, his family is adorable, and he has a mixture of cute animals to provide pictures and endless amounts of copy.

Another week has come and gone here on the farm. Madison has had me out digging flowers. Now that the truck is fixed and it’s warmer, we’ve been driving down to the creek a couple miles past the farm so the kids can skip rocks and that’s where Madison found her flowers. There are old home places along the banks of the creek and lots of them have flowers growing abundantly. The kids call it Lilly Valley. That means Dad gets the shovel those that we need at our house. Garett doesn’t get too into the flowers, so he browses around for other treasures or picks up trash. Kind of strange to pick up trash, but he does. He says people are littering and destroying the earth. Hard to argue with that. So usually we come home with flowers and trash. It’s good for the kids to get out in the woods.

It’s time for garden tilling to get busy. I tilled 3 on Friday afternoon. Don’t make a lot of money at it, but at least it helps buy fuel. At $2.60 a gallon I can use the help. I thought I would have some trouble starting the 6000 after running it out of fuel, but all I had to do was loosen the fuel prime pump and pump a few times and it took right off.


Notice two things:
  1. The unapologetic product plugs for his sponsor. This is how the web is going to deliver bucks, I think. It is also how much of what you will read will be infused with marketing.
  2. The pure attraction of the agrarian lifestyle, albeit attached to a full time job elsewhere. It is hard for even me not to envy this simpler, seemingly more rustic life.
I have written before that while I grew up on more nearly agrarian farm, by a series of choices we moved to become what I call industrial producers. I think it is not only appropriate for our farm, but essential to our national interest. America needs industrial agriculture to supply the enormous amounts of farm products it consumes, especially now we have decided to fuel the US from the farm. (I may not agree with this logic, but accept the reality).

But industrial producers need to keep in mind we are not America's first choice for farmers. This guy is. My guess is most folks feel I'm too individualistic, advantaged and obnoxious to deserve this great life. I don't blame others for this nearly instinctive reaction, but I also take seriously that I may have to defend my way of life from people who want to save farming from people like me.

We have peddled an agrarian image for so long, we have forgotten we don't match up. Still, the market will sort this choice out. In the end, image doesn't produce crops.

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Feels like the the tide going out...

Every now and then I think I detect a sea change in our business. Sometimes it pertains only to my farm, but sometimes it simply dawns on me agriculture is shifting course somewhat. This week's news gave me that same impression. Something different our way comes.

And it's not just ethanol.

The curious upper-end trends in food are being carried to the everyday consumer, not because they embrace them, but because the food industry is adopting them, and that is how nearly 50% of our food is delivered. The immediate example of this development is animal welfare concern by food retailers.
In what animal welfare advocates are describing as a “historic advance,” Burger King, the world’s second-largest hamburger chain, said yesterday that it would begin buying eggs and pork from suppliers that did not confine their animals in cages and crates. [More]
Obviously BK considers this to be a wise move to improve or protect their competitive position, but also consider that the executives making this decision are also more likely to be shopping at Whole Foods and ordering free-range chicken dishes when they eat out. Higher income consumers set food trends in more ways than simply by example.

Cheap food is no longer enough. In fact, "cheap" has taken on a definite downscale connotation. The now widespread practice of selective conspicuous consumption - Manolo shoes with Lee jeans - coupled with the considerable disposable income for many rearranges the shopping profile for America.

Food is becoming, I believe, a way to make a personal statement about your class and status, and it is this trend that food retailers are acting on. What you order when you are out with friends may be a subtext, just like the clothes you wear. Now add in the increasing concern with obesity and other surprising health alarms. Suddenly, you have a different answer to what eating is all about.

Significantly raising food prices to fund new ways of managing meat animals is not as unthinkable as it was a few decades ago. Consumer resistance to this could be much less than producers imagine. Still the supply-demand effect suggests that we will eat collectively less, but more expensive protein.

The implications are significant. The hog and poultry industries will likely be more frequently and harshly examined in the process, and the cattle industry will not go untouched. Meatpacking will be changed as well. Animal welfare is one part of the cause, but the cumulative effect of other simultaneous market choices will be considerable, I think.

There will continue to be an enormous demand for reasonably priced food. But the spectrum of market choices for that food could be vastly different.

I cannot help but think that all this turmoil and industry dislocation was partly triggered by the constant complaint emanating from farm country: "People don't know where their food comes from."

We got our wish. They found out.

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Wednesday, March 28, 2007
 
Forget the fat tax...

One response to the obesity problem in the US is the suggestion to tax unhealthy food, thus steering consumers to better choices.

Popularly known as the "fat tax" or the "Twinkie tax," the concept first gained widespread attention in 1994 when Yale University psychology professor Kelly D. Brownell outlined the idea in an op-ed piece in The New York Times.


Addressing what he called a "dire set of circumstances," Brownell proposed two food-tax options: A big tax, in the range of 7 percent to 10 percent, to discourage the purchase of unhealthy processed foods while subsidizing healthier choices; or a much smaller tax to fund long-term public health nutrition programs. [
More]


It sounds reasonable, but likely won't work as well as it might seem.
Americans have been getting fatter since at least the mid 1980s. To better understand this public health problem, much attention has been devoted to determining the underlying cause of increasing body weights in the U.S. We
examine the role of relative food prices in determining an individual's body
mass index, arguing that as healthful foods become more expensive relative to
unhealthful foods, individuals substitute to a less healthful diet. Using data
from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for the period 1982-1996, we
find that individual BMI measures, as well as the likelihood of being overweight
or obese, exhibit a statistically significant positive correlation with the
prices of healthful relative to unhealthful foods. These results are robust to
endogenizing the relative price measure. While the magnitudes of our estimates suggest that relative price changes can only explain about 1 percent of the
growth in BMI and the incidence of being overweight or obese over this period,
they do provide some measure of how effective fat taxes would be in controlling the obesity epidemic. Our estimates imply, for example, that a 100 percent tax
on unhealthful foods could reduce average BMI by about 1 percent, and the same tax could reduce the incidence of being overweight and the incidence of obesity
by 2 percent and 1 percent respectively.
[Full report]

It is the level of effect that matters in such economic speculation. Sure, higher prices have an effect, but at the level indicated above, not much.

I'm not sure how we can push people to better health habits. I think ending first dollar health plans is one way - and we seem to be moving toward that.

But the single best "pull" might be the heightened appreciation for good food. As a rule, home prepared meals offer better nutition and especially portion control.

Bring home cooking back!

[via Metafilter]

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Good news! No, wait...

The National Corn Growers have released a report showing corn prices don't have much effect on food prices.

According to the report, if current corn prices recede back to historical levels because of a significant increase in production this year, there would be little or no impact on consumer food prices. The paper concludes that if corn prices remain at the $3.50-4 per bushel range for several years, consumers might experience marginal food inflation for some grocery items.

Whew - at least consumers can't blame corn prices for food price inflation.

On the other hand, if corn prices have little effect on food prices, then what is the point of subsidies to corn farmers from the consumer point of view? Could "affordable" food be result of an efficient market and not goverment help?

Also note the report assumes prices drop back to "historic levels". That's not what farmers are hoping for, I don't think.

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Monday, March 26, 2007
 
Signs of the Apocalypse...


Thoughts always change when posted on a wall. Great signs.

For instance, how to tell you're in Georgia...

Or Texas...



Everything you need in one place.

[via Mentalfloss]

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Another reason to hate soybean aphids...

They are ruining our wine.
This type of ladybug has been spreading rapidly across the Midwest because some tasty new prey -- the invasive soybean aphid -- has also become widespread. Winemakers report greater concentrations of ladybugs in their vineyards and on harvested grapes. Apparently the bugs are being mixed into the fermenting grape juice by accident.

This is unacceptable.

I say: all corn, all the time. Do it for the grapes.

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Sunday, March 25, 2007
 
Nice work if you can get it...

I was goofing around looking through the career choices for geezers like me and I ran across this idea:

Religious celebrant.
Tending to others' spiritual needs certainly qualifies as a career with "meaning." In addition to traditional ministerial and religious education positions, you can also become a celebrant, someone who helps people mark important events in life with customized ceremonies that reflect their beliefs and backgrounds.

I'm getting a picture of some guy who simply shows up at parties and acts as MC or head druid. And then gets paid.

What am I missing here?

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So, honey, what's for supper?...


A work of staggering genius, The Gallery of Regrettable Foods will help you be truly grateful for your supper tonight.

My personal favorites:
[via Daily Dish]

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The fixed-payment funnel...

Like cattle down the loading chute, American farmers are cheerfully being herded to a WTO-compliant (Green Box) "fixed-payment" subsidy. This will prove to be the last gasp, I think, for ag subsidies here. At least, subsidies that affect how we do our job.

Why? Because fixed payments, however generous, will simply become "rent-stamps" for the real power brokers: landowners. Or they will become income streams that can be sold. And if you don't believe me, check out what the single payment system has done in Europe.
The EU pays £60 billion a year in farm subsidies, which were originally aimed at boosting production, but last year farmers were given — free — the automatic right to subsidies, known as the single farm payment entitlement, in return for reducing production. They were also given the right to trade the subsidy entitlements between themselves, but the legislation is so loose that in practice anyone can officially qualify as a farmer. [More]
My current thought is farmers will rejoice at the thought of Social-Security-like checks showing up annually per acre. Especially if told by Congress the total is above the baseline. Then when the viatical industry gets a whiff of this windfall, the results are pretty easy to predict.

That's the beginning of the end.

I can't wait.

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Saturday, March 24, 2007
 
The better mosquito...

Since the banning of DDT, malaria has gained ground as a major cause of death and despair in poor tropical countries. The DDT outcry was triggered by Rachel Carson's epic environmental tome, Silent Spring. It was as politically powerful as it was wrong.

To be fair, we didn't know then, but her assertion that pesticides are killing us has had a long, long half-life. Even now, writers blithely toss off statements that our water is fouled with pesticides and pesticides cause all sorts of health problems - all without much evidence.

You'd think in this setting, GM solutions - which greatly reduce the need for pesticides - would be hailed as wonderful solutions.

You'd be wrong.

Nonetheless, the march of GM progress continues to offer potent weapons to attack many of humankind's oldest scourges. One of these is the malaria-carrying mosquito.
After mosquitoes bite a host with malaria, the parasite that causes the disease proliferates in the insect, readying itself to infect the next human victim. It's no fun being infected, and one might think that mosquitoes would have developed a resistance to the malaria parasite over time. But several studies have suggested that mosquitoes engineered to build defenses against malaria are less fit than insects that chose to live with the parasites.

Now there's reason to take heart. Several years ago, a group of medical entomologists at Johns Hopkins University created a strain of Anopheles stephensi (a mosquito that bites rodents) equipped with a gene called SM1 that makes the mosquitoes resistant to infection with Plasmodium berghei, a rodent malaria parasite. In the new study, published online this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group carried out a series of experiments in which 250 of these insects were put in a cage together with 250 wild-type counterparts and allowed to feed on malaria-infected mice. The resistant insects lived longer and produced more eggs than did those not resistant to the parasite, and after nine generations, some 70% of the population was resistant. The researchers speculate that carrying SM1 is a less costly strategy than whatever defenses malaria-resistant mosquitoes develop in the wild. [More]

I didn't realize it was a parasite and not the mosquito who was the culprit. What I do know is conquering malaria would be close to a miracle for Sub-Saharan Africa.
GM mosquitoes that interfered with development of the malaria parasite would make it more difficult for the organism to become re-established after it had been eradicated from a target area, they said.

Malaria, spread by the single-celled parasite Plasmodium, is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, and central and south America.

The organism is passed to humans through the bite of the Anopheles mosquito. Each year it makes 300 million people ill and causes a million deaths worldwide.

Some 90% of cases are in sub-Saharan Africa, where a child dies of malaria every 30 seconds. [More]

My point is not to excoriate early environmentalists like Carson, who certainly acted in good faith, and had significant beneficial impact on how we use the tools of technology. But technology does not stand still, and if we cannot revise our decisions in the light of new knowledge, we shall not advance the cause of bettering the human condition.

This it the way, I believe, genetic modification will slowly become a technology we feel comfortable using. Just like steam engines terrified pre-industrialists with their power, GM technology will have a acclimatization period. We should take the time. Launching polemics or trading attacks will not advance this cause.

Good science will.

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Right up there with wolverine grooming...


Here is how Don Naumann makes a living:
Standing in the middle of a thunderstorm under a golfer's umbrella, camera at the ready, waiting for the next lighting strike is one of the keys to the creation of Don Naumann's eclectic electric Lightning & Water Photographs. [More]

Oookay - sounds like a business plan to me.

What could possibly go wrong?


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Only in America France

Those wacky French - guess what they are up to now? By some estimates they could be on the verge of electing a farmer President of France.



Well, Mr. Bayrou is the anti-excitement candidate, a sort of political Prozac after all the amphetamines of the Sarkozy-Royal conflict. He is fairly young at 55, and he has a relatively full head of hair, but so far he has left the paparazzi in a soporific daze. He wants to unite everyone — he’s a member of a centrist party but might well appoint a Socialist prime minister; he is a Catholic but a staunch defender of secularism in schools. The message is that if he can unite God and the atheists, surely he can unite France.

Most of all, he is something that even urban voters see as quintessentially French — a farmer. His official Web site shows him pitchforking hay on the family farm, and he was recently quoted in the weekly Le Point as saying: “My friends and I aren’t the jet set. We’re the tractor set.” [More]
While viewed as unlikely, a Bayrou victory would be an astonishing development even by French standards.
A Bayrou victory, which is unlikely but not impossible, would constitute a triple revolution. It would lead first to the end of the Socialist Party created by Francois Mitterrand. Following former prime minister Lionel Jospin's humiliating defeat in 2002, the Socialists simply would not survive a second consecutive failure to reach the second round. Moreover, a Bayrou victory could signify the end of the conservative party created by Chirac, as well as of Charles de Gaulle's Fifth Republic. But de Gaulle's legacy would most likely be snuffed out gently, with nostalgia for both Mitterrand and Chirac possibly proving very tempting for a people disaffected with the political system but desiring to be reassured. France wants the illusion of change, but is continuity what she truly desires? Finally, while this election was expected to usher in a new generation of politicians, few were prepared to anticipate the peaceful political tsunami that a Bayrou victory would bring. Yet that would be the outcome if the attraction towards the center proves to be as irresistible for significant segments of the Socialists and conservative parties as it now seems. [More]
Our two party system rules out the possibility of a none-of-the-above vote by the electorate - usually we just stay home on election day to signify discontent. As Republicans grovel to the extreme right and Democrats to the left to gain the nomination, the hope is candidates will wander back to the center after the primaries.

Parliamentary systems can actually have centrist candidates, although that seems to insure all the excitement the middle can feature. And Bayrou seems to fulfill those low expectations.
The 55-year-old Catholic, a father of six children and farmer from the southwestern French Béarn region, has figured out how to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate, hero of the common man and antidote to voters' dissatisfaction with the government and politics. Bayrou presents himself as a "peacemaker" who stands above the traditional trench warfare between the right and the left, a struggle that has so far consumed the full attention and energy of the frontrunners. [More]
He is playing the "farmer card" intensely, despite being in government for a considerable career. (Do I hear a Jimmy Carter drawl?)

The outcome in France will likely affect the current economic balance between the dollar and the euro. It will also impact how France deals with their own Islamic question. None of the candidates shows much inclination to adjust hard-line French policies toward farm issues, especially concessions to achieve a WTO success.

I'll be watching this campaign, which ends with the election April 22. What happens in France - despite our disinterest - does matter .



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Friday, March 23, 2007
 
Because they weren't there before...

My admiration for the early American civilizations increased markedly after reading "1491" and hence I was struck by this weird story.




While the world is generally familiar with Machu Pichu and the Nazca Lines, another mystery has come to light through the modern science of satellite photography. This phenomenon is one that was previously known but the extent of its size and effort required to make it is just being fully realized.

A series oh holes, usually about 24 inches across and in neat rows of from nine to twelve, stretched for almost a mile in Peru. It starts at the base of a mountain and then climbs up the side and meanders up and down, over some of the roughest terrain. [More]


We have a tendency to grossly underestimate both the capabilities and intelligence of ancient people. Still, discoveries such as this suggest we ourselves may one day be sadly misunderstood as well.

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Sounds like a pretty radical plan...

What if Congress actually read the bills it passes?

Ooooo, scary....

[via Metafilter]

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Thursday, March 22, 2007
 
Who doesn't love trees?...


Especially these fantastic specimens.

[via Presurfer]

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Maybe it's something about the chair...

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is deservedly famous for two things: cryptic pronouncements that somehow proved all things to all listeners, and easy money. For a while, it looked like his successor Ben Bernanke was going to be another breed of cat.


But the recent announcement by the FOMC (short for "Op Loan Interest Rate Czars") was notable in that, in the face of some inflation pressures, the Fed appears to be opting for growth.
One succinct summary was part of my advisory message from Roach Ag Marketing (I carefully ignore advice from several quality sources):
First, it is not what they did that was important but it is what they said that made all the difference. Fed chief Ben Bernanke basically said that he is more willing to consider the fall off in the housing market and the blow up in the sub prime lending market as a more important consideration short term then inflation. Translation: he is likely preparing the market for the potential for rate cuts in the weeks ahead.

The reason this has significance is because it is telling you the Federal Reserve is ready to put the foot on the liquidity pedal and let Japan decelerate its liquidity pump. This lit a fire underneath the equity markets globally yesterday and has a profound impact on the likely acceleration of global growth as we head into the back half of 2007 and especially into 2008. It does not mean that the transition will happen with out some further disruptions but it does mean the Fed is aware of the danger of the yen-carry trade distortion and is looking to minimize, the best that it can, the effects of its eventual unwinding. Have no illusions of grandeur here: Japan will continue to raise rates in the year ahead and the yen-carry trade will unwind from its current amebic state. So expect the yen to strengthen significantly against the dollar and expect the US dollar to stay under pressure against most other currencies as well.
These comments line up well with my own take - in itself a scary thought for the author Shawn Hackett. We are already seeing significant ag inflation: rents, fuel, fertilizer, etc. Now that could be matched with modest consumer inflation: food (of course, that's partly ethanol's fault), anything imported (dollar plummeting), and services.

I have opined before about fixed-rate penalties for ag loans. As you write loans for the machinery now flying out of dealer lots and land you can now almost pay for, make sure you don't lock in a very expensive unneeded interest rate guarantee.

I think Ben's a chip off the ol' block...

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Tuesday, March 20, 2007
 
Breeding super bugs. Or not...

The issue of antibiotic resistance is a constant wrangle in medical circles that spill over into the animal health arena. Recently, for example the FDA hinted it will approve at new class of antibiotics for use in cattle. Some medicos were not amused.
The government is on track to approve a new antibiotic to treat a pneumonia-like disease in cattle, despite warnings from health groups and a majority of the agency's own expert advisers that the decision will be dangerous for people.

The drug, called cefquinome, belongs to a class of highly potent antibiotics that are among medicine's last defenses against several serious human infections. No drug from that class has been approved in the United States for use in animals. [More]
The bone of contention is the FDA lamely defends the possible move as simply following a directive issued earlier. Regardless, this potential problem is receiving mucho scrutiny.

The irony is at the same time physicians are being warned about over-prescribing antibiotics for stuff like ear infections and now sinus infections. (I thought they were the same thing - at least in my aching head).
Evidence from national databases suggests that both acute and chronic sinus inflammation (sinusitis) is being overtreated with poorly chosen medications, researchers report.

Data from 1999 and 2002 collected by the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey suggests that there were roughly 14 million visits annually because of chronic sinusitis and 3 million because of acute sinusitis. [More]
It seems more likely to me overuse in humans is way more conducive to resistant bugs than the more torturous chain of events required to produce superbugs that will leap from cattle to humans.

That said, I'm not a big fan of prophylactic dosing of food animals. I know all the other kids are doing it, but I think it may be one reason alternative meats are slowing eating into the high end market share. While cattlemen get all worked up about defending current practice, nimble competitors listen to consumers.

Beef may be in for a wrenching decade or two. Ethanol will steal their feed and rising affluence will make consumers whiny malcontents. Meanwhile, rugged individualism often interferes with their ability to adapt and change, since kowtowing to market signals could be seen as weakness. This is just my read on the dynamic in cattle country, not fact.

BTW, If you aren't reading our newest columnist, Steve Cornett on the Beef Today Blog, you might want to start. He and I don't see eye to eye on every issue, which probably means he is a little sharper than me. His comments on livestock add a new dimension to AgWeb, and I look forward to linking to and agitating him.

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What's on the other side of your piece of the world?...

Hint: It's not China.

[via Random Good Stuff]

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Why not "delirium"?...




If you survived physics and the periodic table of elements, you may have wondered how some of the weirder ones got their names.

OK - well, I did.

In keeping with my growing belief, the answer really is out there. On the Internet.

For even more elementary information, including the elements of Star Trek, check here.

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And what if your brain can't wave?...

Driven by the hideous amounts of money sloshing around the computer gaming industry, brain researchers are developing controllers that read brain waves:
Controlling things by mere thought is a staple of science fiction. That fiction, though, is often based on a real technique known as electroencephalography (EEG). This works by deploying an array of electrodes over a person's scalp and recording surface manifestations of the electrical activity going on under his skull. [More]
The idea of replacing joysticks with a plastic helmet is one thing. Ponder what it might be like if we climb into our combines and slap a beanie on and take off.

What happens when you start daydreaming about playing golf? Or eating cheeseburgers? Or Betty Crocker in a cheerleader outfit?


What??

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Monday, March 19, 2007
 
Ya know, I thought it was just me...

Look at these headlines and tell me CNN.com hasn't jumped the shark journalism-wise.


Is there a lower common denominator?

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We don't get that many Jewish jokes In Edgar County...

The blogosphere is snorting about a hoax "news story".
Yaniv Ben-Zaken, a local gas station owner, will be selling Kosher for Passover gasoline during the holiday this year. The move, Ben-Zaken says, has become necessary due to the increased ethanol content in gasoline required by the government. The ethanol is typically derived from corn, which is a forbidden food for Jews on Passover. And, according to Ben-Zaken, underJewish law, it is also forbidden to derive any benefit from corn. [More]

Like most good hoaxes, there is just enough truth to make it stand up for a while. And more than a few cerebral blogs swallowed it whole.
The “article” does get the two points of Jewish law correct. First, we are forbidden on Passover from having any hametz in our possession or ownership and it is forbidden to obtain a benefit from hametz during the eight days of the holiday. Hametz is any of the five forbidden grains (wheat, barley, oats, spelt, rye) that has been in the presence of moisture for more than eighteen minutes.

In Northern European communities around the 15th Century, the prohibition on eating hametz was extended to a category of grains called kitniyot: rice, millet, corn, and legumes. Because ground up rice flour or corn meal closely resembles wheat flour, Ashkenazi Jews exclude kitniyot from their Pesach diet as well. However, as “Rabbi Shalom Silver” is quoted as saying in the article, one may possess kitniyot and obtain a benefit from it, use it in any form or fashion, so long as one does not eat it. Baby powder that contains cornstarch, for example, is perfectly acceptable on Pesach, so long as one is not tempted to make a snack of it. [More of the debunking]
"Kosher ethanol" - ya gotta love it!

Coincidentally, as I have mentioned before, I have been listening to lectures on "The Story of the Bible". We're in the middle of the Middle Ages, so to speak, and one question that has long puzzled me was just answered. Why aren't there many Jewish farmers?

The answer seemed simple: Jews were forbidden to own land for most of the Christian era, and hence never developed a modern agrarian heritage.

Turns out there was more to it than that. Those prohibitions occurred later in the Middle Ages as the Christian Church gained almost absolute power in some areas. The full story was more about education.
So—which Jews stuck with Judaism? Presumably those with a particularly strong attachment to their religion and/or a particularly strong attachment to education for education's sake. (The burden of acquiring an education is, after all, less of a burden for those who enjoy being educated.) The result: Over time, you're left with a population of people who enjoy education, are required by their religion to be educated, and are particularly attached to their religion. Naturally, these people tend to become educated. And once they're educated, they leave the farms. [More of a really interesting article]
Bottom line: the bright ones chose more lucrative careers, the farmers likely dropped out of Judaism.


I wonder if the trend for farming to fail to appeal to our brightest - if not the best - will continue? Or will the technological intensity present a more attractive (and competitive) career?

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Dairy Accessory of the Year...

If you're like me, there may be a tendency for bad things to happen at the dinner table when the butter is straight from the fridge. The effort to cut a chunk of butter has been known to propell dairy products hapahazardly about the dining room.

Looks like our probs are solved:


Behold - the One-Click butter Cutter.

Ingenious as it is, it only needs a few upgrades to be the perfect table-top accessory.

  • Battery power
  • Remote control
  • iPod connection
[via Neatorama]

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The trade deficit that wasn't there...

Nobody (including me) is worried about the US trade deficit. One reason is those of us who did worry about it for years have become bored and now worry about other stuff - like global worming. Maybe we don't have to start now, either.

The current account deficit - of which the trade balance is the most important part is bad but improving. One reason is people in poor countries send their money here to invest.

Because emerging economies' supply of financial instruments is so unreliable, people may hoard more of them as a precautionary measure. Firms and households fear they will not be able to borrow to tide themselves over bad times, therefore they choose to save for a rainy day instead. Because they cannot transfer purchasing power from the future to the present, they must store it from the past.

If global imbalances are the result of such frictions, they are unlikely to unwind quickly. Financial systems, after all, do not mature overnight. If Mr Caballero is right, America is also less vulnerable to a sudden run on its securities. Where, he asks, would the excess demand for global assets go? [More]

In short, poor countries don't have a whole range of mutual funds and money market accounts and we do. And outside some bad apples like Enron, you can get your money back someday pretty reliably.

Another reason our trade balance is improving is our dollar is getting cheaper versus other currencies. This is great for ag because it keeps exports humming and mitigates oil prices (imagine if oil was priced in euros!)

After a while, foreign investors may get fed up with getting back less than they invested because of currency fluctuations, but we've been saying that for decades, it seems.

The important thing is to make sure other countries don't get their acts together and establish strong property rights laws and credible investment markets to compete with ours.

What can go wrong?

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Sunday, March 18, 2007
  Now this was a Future!

I attended the 1965 New York World's Fair, and remember these scenes distinctly. I would have been one of the testosterone-fueled young men in the film.

OK - it's 26 minutes out of your life, but it does give a you a pretty clear picture of the future we thought we were headed toward.

[via paleofuture]

 
 
Cellulosic ethanol rapture...

Every now and then the Christian community gets all riled up about some sign indicating the Rapture (Second Coming) is immanent. This happened back in the 70's when various authors, notably Hal Lindsey extracted from Daniel and Revelations prophesies that seemed (to them) to pinpoint the hour of judgment for mankind.

God apparently had other plans, and here we are. But I have noticed all the hubbub about cellulosic ethanol has induced a similar apprehension in many true biofuel believers. "Cellulosic will usurp our hard-won ethanol mandates", they moan. Others worry that within a few years the advantages of cellulosic will make corn ethanol obsolete.

To be sure, cellulosic ethanol does have powerful efficiency advantages. And it can be made from whole bunches of cheap inputs - like garbage and trees.
But for ethanol made from trees, grasses and other types of biomass which contain a lot of cellulose, the energy balance can be as high as 16, at least in theory. In practice the problem is that producing such “cellulosic” ethanol is much more difficult and expensive than producing it from other crops. But the science, technology and economics of treethanol are changing fast. Researchers are racing to develop ways to chip, ferment, distil and refine wood quickly and cheaply. [More]

But I think it's important to read these predictions closely, just like the apocalyptic foretelling of the 70's. For example, notice the sizes of the c-ethanol plants been loudly announced.
The Southern California Biorefinery Project will turn green waste and wood residues at landfills into about 19 million gallons of fuel grade ethanol per year. Additional products that will also be sold include lignin, gypsum, and yeast. BlueFires's current production estimates for the project will be significantly lower that DOE's cellulosic ethanol goal of $1.07/gal in production costs by 2012, and DOE's current estimate of approximately $2.26/gal. [More]

Now contrast 19 million gallons with the 100-million gallon corn ethanol plants starting up about weekly. Next check the press releases for any mention of partnering with feedstock suppliers. Unlike corn ethanol plants which were pushed by corn growers, c-ethanol backers have not bothered to link strongly to sufficient suppliers to create very much of the stuff.

When they do get around to sourcing straw or stover or whatever, my guess is the value of these formerly low-cost feeds will skyrocket. Even corn growers would have to be compensated significantly to gather, handle, store and deliver bales of stover. And then add more fertilizer to compensate.

My view is c-ethanol is one of the great hustles of the energy bubble. If it happens in my lifetime I may live too long.

Besides, I don't find any mention of it in Daniel.

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Saturday, March 17, 2007
  For all you guys with excavators...

Don't need no stinkin' lowboy trailer.

Is it me, or is that tandem distinctly overloaded? What does an excavator weigh, anyway?

[via Neatorama]

 
 
CPR may soon be CR...

Years ago I taught Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation as a volunteer for the Red Cross. Since then I have noticed the methods have been changed almost annually. Fair enough - rescuers have undoubtedly learned more from actually using the technique.

Well, a BIG change may be coming. Forget the mouth-to-mouth stuff (at least for cardiac arrest).
Forget mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. When somebody collapses in cardiac arrest, experts now say, bystanders should not bother breathing into his or her mouth, once considered a key component of cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

"Rescue breathing is an oxymoron," says Gordon Ewy of the University of Arizona College of Medicine. "We've been doing it wrong for 40 years." [More]

One reason compressions-only has been more successful is the reluctance of bystanders to do full CPR, so no compressions at all were given. Updating the methods taught will also end a standard joke set-up that was worn out years ago. (Bunch of guys - one collapses - all argue about who does the "kiss of life" - etc.)

For a really good demonstration and some pretty straightforward information about how successful resuscitation may be, click here.

Important to remember for farmers: mouth-to-mouth is still imperative for drowning, suffocation, etc. when breathing has stopped first.

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Friday, March 16, 2007
 
Saving or not...

In the previous post, I linked to a report on the US savings rate and got a great question: If the savings rate doesn't include retirement accounts, doesn't that skew the results?

Here's one answer:
And another: Every year private pensions pay billions of dollars to retirees that aren't counted on the positive side in the official savings rate.

There is a rationale for this. The government books pensions as personal income when employers contribute it to a pension pool, not when it gets paid out years later, and retirees can actually spend it, said Oak Associates investment strategist Ed Yardeni, another analyst who holds higher-than-average faith in the U.S. consumer. (The idea is to measure income produced by current labor.)

But since the mid-1980s, as the population has aged, and traditional pensions for younger workers have dwindled, pension payouts have vastly exceeded pension inputs, and the gap has been getting wider. "A big discrepancy," Yardeni said.

Pension benefits surpass contributions these days by some $200 billion a year, said Franke. That's $200 billion in household income that doesn't get counted in the official savings accounts. If it were, it would add another 2 percentage points to the savings rate, I figure. [More]
I dunno - whether to include the excess of disbursements over contributions as savings is an accountant call. I'm going to go with the DOC on this one.

Regardless, if we use the same yardstick we can at least measure which way we are going and roughly how fast. My read is down and pretty.

Another point which probably has more effect is capital gains, especially house prices. My feeling is the home price boom became the savings vehicle for most of the US. This seemed like a good strategy until a few months ago.

Is our savings rate a problem? Some say no.

I think so, if only in comparison to our past and other countries. The point I was making below, is even if we are saving by means of "hidden savings" like our houses, we are certainly spending all the cash we bring home.

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When food markets collide...

Disposable income is wandering around looking for adventure, I think. Maybe it's because many are still hanging their investment hats on residential real estate to solve their retirement needs. One result is we are not saving money - we're spending it.

Even more interesting is what we are spending it on. To be sure, we've gobbling up luxury goods, but it also seems the high-end food business is doing very well.
What we've seen in the food sector recently is the reversal of the deflation occurring elsewhere, in clothing for example,” said Davies. “There is definitely scope for smaller businesses at the high end, catering for niche markets in wealthier areas - of which there are more and more in the UK.” [More]

This is a change for the entire food chain. We have built our business plan around the cost of food, namely, a constant effort to get more food to the consumer at ever lower prices. Suddenly price seems to be less of a consideration for all but the poorest Americans.

This market divergence has many food producers and processors caught looking both ways. The high-end market promises lucrative profits, but how big will it get? Moreover, this sector is notoriously fad-driven, unlike the old meat and potato business. Are big businesses nimble enough to serve it?

One indicator of this new food marketing arena could be stories like the this:
Richard Hebron, 41, was driving along an anonymous stretch of highway near Ann Arbor, Mich., last October when state cops pulled him over, ordered him to put his hands on the hood of his mud-splattered truck and seized its contents: 453 gal. of milk.

Yes, milk. Raw, unpasteurized milk. To supply a small but growing market among health-conscious city and suburban dwellers for milk taken straight from the udder, Hebron was dealing the stuff on behalf of a farming cooperative he runs in southwestern Michigan. An undercover agricultural investigator had infiltrated the co-op as part of a sting operation that resulted in the seizure of $7,000 worth of fresh-food items, including 35 lbs. of raw butter, 29 qt. of cream and all those gallons of the suspicious white liquid. Although Hebron's home office was searched and his computer seized, no charges have been filed. "When they tested the milk, they couldn't find any problems with it," says Hebron. "It seems like they're just looking for some way to shut us down." [More]

The milk business is far from free market. Not merely subsidized, it is strongly regulated, so efforts like this tiny raw-milk niche can may be more threatening to the milk system than the digestive system.

It will be fun to watch if the stream of food-conscious dollars can erode the food industry bulwarks by end-around schemes like this. Then too, there is also the (small) chance that farm policy might get involved in food instead of grain.

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Thursday, March 15, 2007
 
Yeah, right...

This is the kind of irresponsible science journalism that I despise. The headline:

Monster whirlpool off Sydney

And here is the picture



And here is the explanation of the picture


Explaining the image

Variations in sea levels above or below the normal are shown, with the two icy whirlpools in dark blue because the deep cold water has helped pull the ocean surface down by around 70cm.

The icy whirlpool closest to Sydney is 200kms across and plunging 1km towards the ocean floor. It's about 100km east of Sydney and moving clockwise.

Dude, a "MONSTER WHIRLPOOL" should not have to be explained.

It should be sucking oil tankers in.

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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
 
Important space discovery...

Make your own model Enterprise from office supplies.


Gee, I wonder why worker productivity is slowing down?

[via Neatorama]

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This could get uglier...

Although many on Wall Street are downplaying the sub-prime mortgage swoon, it seems to be growing nonetheless. The trouble is the slide can generate its own momentum. As foreclosures rise, more houses come on the already crowded market, and new groups of possible buyers dwindle.

Meanwhile, all those who took it as a solid assumption home prices would appreciate a tidy 4-7% annually are faced with a different business plan. Flipping properties, especially for highly leveraged speculators, could be along time regaining profitability.

Could this touch our wonderful little commodity party? I think so, because we have so much "outside" money in commodities tight now.

But as to which way - I have no idea. One thought is commodities will look more attractive by comparison, hence funds will keep buying.

A second choice is as the Dow declines in response the lost equity will suck up money available for commodity speculation. This seems like a reach given the numbers involved, but the slow-motion meltdown in mortgages is not shrinking.

One thing that could be helpful is more pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates to help keep some mortgages going through another wave of refi's similar to a few years ago.

We seem to have a pattern in the US now of slow-motion disasters: Iraq, Libby, Britney, the Chief, and now this.

I guess we love pulling the bandaids off really slow.

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Now I see...

We're having a blast up here at Miller Electric in Appleton, WI. The three winners of the Farm Journal "Welding University" contest are getting chance to try out some state-of-the-art equipment and have experts help them improve their skills.

To show you what a quantum leap this has been for us, none of us had ever used an auto-darkening hood. Boy howdy - what a difference to these far-sighted eyes! That's $250 I'm definitely going to invest in my welding tool inventory ASAP.



Stan Smith is using the X-treme 375 Plasma Torch. This rascal weighs all of 18 pounds and can cut 1/2 metal easily. None of us had ever used a plasma torch either, like many farmers and hobby metalworkers, and this was eye-opening. Throw in the new trend to small, light tools with inverter technology, and some of us might be able to leverage meager skills up to passable competence.

It is astonishing how technology can ramp up seldom used-skills to acceptable levels. This can be irritating for welders who have taken the time and effort to master the craft, I know. But it also means that amateur metal workers have a wider range of projects they can undertake and repair abilities to save time and hassle.

We'll be showing our experiences on US Farm Report this weekend, and you can read all about it in detail in Farm Journal soon.

The winners are taking home some pretty dang cool tools.

Not that I'm jealous, mind you...

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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
 
Wandering trends aren't news to me...

It hard enough in the news business to follow current trends. Extrapolating them to the future can drive you nuts. For example, just when we have all decided Americans will be flooding on-line to get their news, evidence pops up that the trend may be slowing.


When it comes to online news in particular, however, there are clearer signs that the size of the audience has leveled off. That was true both for occasional news consumption and for the percentage of those going online for news more frequently.

As of December 2005, 68% of Americans report ever going online for news, down slightly from the last time this question had been asked by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans going online for news frequently may not be growing either. In last year’s annual report, we discussed that while the overall online news audience wasn’t growing much, every-day use had increased. [More - same source for following quotes as well.]

Before the industry yells, "It's a trick - retreat!!" we need to notice what else is happening to the news biz. Namely, newspapers aren't exactly pulling out of their nosedive.
In 2006, the traditional indicators were all negative:

*Circulation fell even faster than in 2005 — down 2.8% daily and 3.4% Sunday for the six months ending in September compared to that period a year earlier.3

*Industry revenues were flat, a poor showing in a non-recession year. On the print side, retail, national and automotive classified all showed weakness. Online growth left most companies roughly even in revenues for the year.

*Earnings fell. Wall Street responded by marking shares of publicly traded companies down by about 14%, after a tumble of 20% in 2005.4

*At big metro papers, such as the Dallas Morning News and the Philadelphia Inquirer, there were deep newsroom cuts. Together with some closings of national and international bureaus, the trend was to smaller, local papers with diminished ambitions.

Network TV ended up in a draw, and magazines looked to cross boundaries.
Time, the giant of the news weeklies, took the lead in promising change. It announced a new publication date and a new way of measuring audience that it hoped might soon combine print and online. It redesigned its Web site to de-emphasize the print magazine. It also hinted, more cryptically, at a new editorial approach, one that is more interpretive. Then it slashed more of its staff.

My guess on all this is the first ones to tie them all together will be the winners. One interesting note is since online research is so much easier and reliable, online readership gets much more scrutiny.

It is also critical to deliver news to the right people in the right way. The final product - what I think of as "merged media" - will look like all these traditional sources from some angle, perhaps.
Our sense remains, too, that traditional journalism is not, as some suggest, becoming irrelevant. There is more evidence now that new technology companies have had either limited success in news gathering (Yahoo, AOL), or have avoided it altogether (Google). Whoever owns them, old newsrooms now seem more likely than a few years ago to be the foundations for the newsrooms of the future.

But practicing journalism has become far more difficult and demands new vision. Journalism is becoming a smaller part of people’s information mix. The press is no longer gatekeeper over what the public knows.

Journalists have reacted relatively slowly. They are only now beginning to re-imagine their role. Their companies failed to see “search” as a kind of journalism. Their industry has spent comparatively little on R&D. They have been tentative about pressing for new economic models, and that has left them fearful and defensive. Some of the most interesting experiments in new journalism continue to come from outside the profession — sites such as Global Voices, which mixes approved volunteer “reporters” from around the world with professional editors.

Regardless, we will be inventing the new "news" as we go along. Those of you reading this will help build ag journalism's future format.

Thanks.



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Monday, March 12, 2007
 
Old dog vs. new tricks...

I'm off to "Welding University" for US Farm Report. Along with the three winners of our contest in Farm Journal, I'll be learning from the pro's at Miller Electric in Appleton, WI. We're taking a videographer so you can all watch how it's supposed to be done.

Posting could be thin however - lots of quality road time.

Don't start farming without me!

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Sunday, March 11, 2007
 
Just for Monday...


It's all in the art of perspective.

[More great camera work]

[via Daily Dish]

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Why don't we do it in our sleeves?...

I made through the winter only to catch a cold in March. So I've been doing my homework.

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Just in time for wedding-gift season...

What new bride wouldn't choose this pattern?


[via Neatorama]

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New book review...



1491
by Charles Mann.


If you grow corn, or love someone who does, you need to read this book.

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Saturday, March 10, 2007
 
A very quiet, very big step...

Economist Hernando de Soto captured it best (if over-emphatically) in his brilliant book, The Mystery of Capital: the biggest impediment for poor people around the globe in the lack of a system of property rights. Even as I wade through a legal morass of deeds, abstracts, and title insurance to rationalize my mother's estate, I recognize the power of this system whereby I can say with considerable assurance, "This is mine".
According to de Soto, the poor of Third-World countries are not victims of rapacious capitalism, but rather are wronged by the lack of property rights and with outright bureaucratic barriers that prevent the poor from gaining access to capital. Thus, they languish in the vast "informal sectors," or underground markets, that so characterize much of the Third World.
The elite of Third-World nations, he writes, have been able to use the Western systems of laws and property rights to participate in ownership of capital, which is why they are prosperous. Using Braudel’s (1992) analogy of the "bell jar," de Soto writes that the elite are inside this "jar" and take advantage of the blessings of capitalism, while the poor, who are "outside the jar," are left out. [More]
Such a fundamental and overlooked capacity here in the US. Yet this mundane paperwork jungle has unleashed the power of American innovation and hidden capital with astonishing results.

Now China is poised on the brink of unleashing this power in their communist country. Not all at once, of course, but it appears the first step has been taken. (For a semi-humorous, state-approved account of this development, check here.)
This latest law, likewise, will not bring the full property-rights revolution China's development demands. Indeed, it will not meet the most crying need: to give peasants marketable ownership rights to the land they farm. If they could sell their land, tens of millions of underemployed farmers might find productive work. Those who stay on the farm could acquire bigger land holdings and use them more efficiently. Nor will the new law let peasants use their land as security on which they could borrow and invest to boost productivity. Nor, even now, will they be free from the threat of expropriation, another disincentive to investment. Much good land has already been grabbed, and the new law will merely protect the grabbers' gains.

This law cannot in itself resolve the murkiest question: who owns what? This is especially true in the countryside, where the mass collectivisation during Mao's Great Leap Forward of half a century ago left farmland “collectively” owned. Peasants have since been granted short (30-year) leases. But even outside agriculture it is often unclear whether a “private” enterprise is really owned by individuals or by a local government or party unit. Conversely, some “collective” or “state” enterprises operate in ways indistinguishable from the private interests of their bosses. Moreover, should an underdog try to use the new law to enforce his rights, the corrupt and pliant judiciary would usually ensure he was wasting his time. Since the Cultural Revolution, when the NPC passed just one law between 1967 and 1976, the legislature has been legislating quite prolifically. But the passage of laws is not the rule of law.

Which leads to a final obstacle: without an accountable executive branch, the necessary reform of the legal system is not going to happen. As the passage of the property law itself demonstrates, the party is showing itself somewhat more responsive to public opinion than it was in the past. But it still runs a government that does its best to silence most dissenting voices, strictly controls the press, and lavishes resources on the best cyber-censorship money can buy. Property rights are a start; but only contested politics and relatively open media can ensure that they are enforceable. [More of a must -read article]
The implications are hard to overestimate. While making other steps toward free markets, The government action could be pivotal for millions of peasants. The industriousness of the Chinese is awe-inspiring. By coupling that with an ability control wealth and build on it, China may be on the verge of a long-needed transition to greater possibilities for all their citizens.

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Darth Mail...

To celebrate the 30th Anniversary of Star Wars, the US Postal Service is rolling out (heh-heh) these mailboxes.


These would be mailboxes suitable for handling "princess holograms", presumably.

[via BoingBoing]

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Friday, March 09, 2007
 
Everyone knows it's windy...

Ah, yes, reality sinks in for alternative energy fans. Literally. It seems wind and solar energy enthusiasts are encountering some resistance to their plan for saving the planet:

"This bill creates a set of winners and losers," said Ray Clifton, executive director of the Colorado Rural Electric Association, representing the state's 22 rural electric co-ops. He said under the legislation, payments to renewable owners would be more expensive than the wholesale electricity that co-ops buy for the bulk of their power.

Stan Lewandowski, general manager of Intermountain Rural Electric Association, said the legislation would reward owners of solar systems that generate power during daytime nonpeak-demand periods, leaving co-ops responsible for acquiring more expensive power during morning and evening peak periods. [more

Wind energy to be sure, but also solar has a the same problem as comedians:

















Timing.

Delivering lots of free power when nobody needs it is no help. Asking to be paid for it is another stretch. And then when the load is heavy...

This leads to bizarre ideas about how to match supply with demand.

The production of wind energy is quite variable, relatively unpredictable and not necessarily occurring at peak demand, thus as its use becomes more widespread it becomes more problematic to integrate it into the grid than conventional sources of power as it is not easily accommodated by switching on and off conventional energy suppliers, like coal fired power plants. The "Night Wind" project in the Netherlands uses an energy management methodology in which existing refrigerated warehouses are used to store wind energy produced during periods of low demand (at night) and then recover this energy during high demand periods (primarily during the day) thus relieving the grid of some of its demand during peak periods. An article in Nature described the process as follows:

The idea seems simple. Say you lowered the temperature of all large coldstores in Europe by just 1°C during the night when electricity demand is low, then let it rise 1°C by switching them off during the day when demand is at peak. The net effect would be that the warehouses would act as batteries -- potentially storing 50,000 megawatt-hours of energy -- i.e. store over twice the projected 2010 EU average hourly wind power production. [More]

Oooookay. Let all take deep breath and get real. We will be building turbines and solar collectors like crazy for the next few years, but don't expect them to put your kids through college or lower your electric bill without getting other taxpayers to foot the bill.

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What's that about?...

News reports all seem to have obligatory coverage of the "ethanol pact" or biofuels agreement" or "ethanol accord" between Brazil and the US. All of them dutifully report what it doesn't include:

Raising a point of contention with the U.S., tariffs, Brazilian ethanol producers wanted Lula to press Bush to end the 54-cent-a-gallon levy on fuel shipped to the U.S.

``It's not going to happen,'' Bush said at a joint press conference with Lula today. The U.S. president said the law governing the tariffs ends in 2009 and that ``we'll look at it when the law ends.''

So what exactly did Bush and da Silva agree to, you know, actually do?

As near as I can tell, they agreed to sign an agreement.

Now we're getting somewhere!


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Thursday, March 08, 2007
 
New book review...




Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan

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"Green" hot tub...

And not just the water this time! Check out this low hassle hot tub:


You'd think the Dutch of all folks would know you don't advertise hot-tubs with some dork in green trunks. I mean the country is teeming with hot blondes, fer cryin' out loud.

[via Presurfer]

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Thank goodness Julia Child isn't here...

She'd be heartbroken and/or outraged. As the transfat police gather momentum, egged on by soybean farmers, we're about to do injury to our dairy farmers, and even more sadly - our taste buds.

But, in a twist of science, the law and what some call trans-fat hysteria, Mr. Reich and other wholesale bakers are being forced to substitute processed fats like palm oil and margarine for good old-fashioned butter because of the small amounts of natural trans fat butter contains.

Some researchers believe that the trans fat that occurs naturally in butter, meat, milk and cheese might actually be healthy. But to satisfy companies that want to call their foods completely free of trans fats, bakers like Mr. Reich are altering serving sizes, cutting back on butter and in some cases using ingredients like trans fat-free margarine. [More]


Transfats sound like something distilled in lab from industrial waste. I blame the name. Plus normally responsible information sources have done a poor or even slanted job of explaining that transfats are naturally occurring and present in familiar healthful foods.

It's also important to remember how we got here - by following the advice of people who now are hysterical about transfats:
In the mid-1980s, Jacobson launched a campaign against saturated fats—then CSPI's "panic du jour." In turn, CSPI demanded that restaurants stop using beef tallow to cook French fries and other foods. By the early 1990s, most restaurants had acquiesced to Jacobson's demands.

At the time, partially hydrogenated oils were the only viable alternative to beef tallow and other oils high in saturated fat. Jacobson and CSPI, driven by their myopic dislike of saturated fats, dismissed a number of studies connecting partially hydrogenated oil—and the trans fats it contains—with increasing levels of cholesterol.

In 1988, Elaine Blume wrote in the Center's Nutrition Action Healthletter: "[H]ydrogenated oils aren't guilty as charged... All told, the charges against trans fat just don't stand up. And by extension, hydrogenated oils seem relatively innocent." Two years later, CSPI nutrition director Bonnie Liebman put it more succinctly: "The Bottom Line... Trans, shmans."

So, after years of pressuring restaurants to stop using beef tallow and other oils, and at the same time exonerating partially hydrogenated oils, CSPI bears much of the responsibility for restaurants using oils high in trans fats. [More]

Just a few of us can remember what McDonald's fries used to taste like. Look, transfats can be managed, but taking butter out of croissants is not the right way. I suggest eating just one and walking to the bakery to get it.

And the worse thing producers could do is encourage food-fundamentalists to push ingredient bans through legislative bodies. There is something about this business that triggers bad consequences when choice and market action is overridden by edict. I think the ethanol mandate has become the business model for commodity producers.

Besides since when did following New York City fashion turn out to be winning strategy for the Midwest?

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Wednesday, March 07, 2007
 
A time to re-invest?...

The indications from the housing sector are not encouraging. Some even compare the problems to the technology bubble bursting in 2000 (mere days after I invested in a tech fund):

The other reason it's so hard to call a bottom has to with how bubbles burst. After investors and corporations overreact on the upside, they overreact on the downside. As a result, it generally takes more than a few quarters for equilibrium to return to turbulent markets. For example, lenders are just now starting to tighten standards on the loans they make to subprime borrowers—a measure that is sure to weigh further on an important sector of the housing market.

All of which means that the housing industry in 2007 may be where technology was in early 2001—engaged in the first serious hard times the industry had seen in more than a decade, finally aware of the problem, but still a long way from the bottom. [More]

I do not dismiss lightly the pain being felt in the home-building sector, but there may be an opportunity for farmers hidden here as well. As development slows to work through a large inventory of unsold new homes and the sub-prime lending problem, 1031 money slows as well. It may take some time for it to restart as well.

That sources of funds for land ownership competition may be diminishing therefore, just when farmers will be enjoying significantly higher returns. I still think land prices will jump this year and especially in 2008, but producers may have a window of lessened competition.

Not everyone agrees, of course, with my devotion to owning (nearby) ground. Maximizing returns could point to another asset or investment choice. While this is valid, no other asset will protect your career, which I feel is more fragile than ever.

We don't need many farmers, and the line to join up is very long. Land ownership brings the absolute power to decide who farms those acres - a right of great value. I'll be writing about this in Top Producer later this year, but of all the threats facing grain producers, a sharply lower need for people is Number One in my book.

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At least I'm not the only one...

First it was reviewers,
Windows Vista: more than five years in the making, more than 50 million lines of code. The result? A vista slightly more inspiring than the one over the town dump. The new slogan is: "The 'Wow' Starts Now," and Microsoft touts new features, many filched shamelessly from Apple's Macintosh. But as with every previous version, there's no wow here, not even in ironic quotes. Vista is at best mildly annoying and at worst makes you want to rush to Redmond, Wash. and rip somebody's liver out. [More]
Now it's users who are incensed by the poor performance of MS Vista. Including one really important user - the US Government.
Citing concerns over cost and compatibility, the top technology official at the federal Department of Transportation has placed a moratorium on all in-house computer upgrades to Microsoft's new Windows Vista operating system, as well as Internet Explorer 7 and Office 2007, according to a memo obtained Friday by InformationWeek. [More]
My own travails are documented here and here.

I may yet wind up with a Mac...

Update: One reason Vista may perform so poorly is the extraordinary encryption built in to prevent copying movies. In satisfying the entertainment industry, usability was the first oxen gored.

They were surprising: it seemed Vista was riddled with security precautions that had little to do with enhancing the customer's experience or making a PC perform better, or even making it more secure from external attack. Instead, they were all about preventing movies and music being copied and distributed on home computers.

In an apparent capitulation to the demands of Hollywood studios and music moguls obsessed by piracy, Vista was packed with "digital rights management" (DRM) "features" that could cripple a PC's performance as a media player at the merest whiff of copyright infringement, reducing screen resolution and sound quality or stopping playback altogether. And these hyper-sensitive features seemed to have the potential to over-react, blocking movies or music that had been legitimately purchased or created by the computer owner. [more]

I don't think this story is over yet.


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Another mystery solved...

How do Waffle House cooks keep multiple orders separate?


- Da Condiment Code

[via BoingBoing]

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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
  Water to Snow 2

Those wacky meteorologists at Mt. Washington, NH have a demonstration of what really cold means.

[via Metafilter]

 
 
Been to church lately?...
It's not too late.

But maybe almost.

[via Neatorama]

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No wonder we like cheeseburgers...

Deep down inside we're all dairy farmers.

The study adds to evidence that modern central and northern Europeans are mostly the descendents of a small group of dairy farmers found in the 5th millennium BC, he said.

"The ability to drink milk is the most advantageous trait that's evolved in Europeans in the recent past. Without the enzyme lactase, drinking milk in adulthood causes bloating and diarrhoea," said co-author Mark Thomas.

"The benefits of milk tolerance … include: the continuous supply of milk compared to the boom and bust of seasonal crops, its nourishing qualities and the fact that it's uncontaminated by parasites - unlike stream water - making it a safer drink. All in all, the ability to drink milk gave some early Europeans a big survival advantage," said Thomas [More]

The idea of milk being safer because it had been "filtered" through a cow never struck me. It's like how Chinese laborers fared better during the building of the Transcontinental Railroad because they drank tea which had been effectively sterilized by boiling instead of raw water .

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The evolution of birth risk...

Having babies used to be an enormous risk for women. Medical efforts have drastically reduced the chance of bad outcomes - largely in the last century. But the risks are not zero - and modern parents find no comfort in tiny numbers.

But the key question centers on both the number needed to treat to avoid one adverse neonatal outcome and the level of risk that is currently considered acceptable. As practicing obstetricians, we find that the risk that women are now willing to assume in exchange for a measure of potential benefit, especially for the neonate, has changed: for many, the level of risk of an adverse outcome that was tolerated in the past to avoid cesarean delivery is no longer acceptable, and the threshold number needed to treat has thus been reset.

In the face of the resulting continued increase in cesarean deliveries, our obligation as providers is to educate patients about the trade-offs entailed in choosing a particular course or intervention and to ensure that their choices are congruent with their own philosophy, plans, and tolerance of risk. In areas in which there is still uncertainty, we must organize clinical trials that will produce the data we require for counseling patients. For the moment, however, few of the relevant factors seem likely to change, and the cesarean rate can be predicted to continue its climb. [More]

The growing assumption that every physiological problem is "fixable" seems well-grounded in daily medical advances. For example, I expect to see an effective end to most cancer before I die. But this brave new world of body repair offers some moral pitfalls.

Suppose, as I do, homosexuality is biologically determined via genetics. Now further suppose it can be easily and safely tested for in utero. This offers an interesting quandary for many committed pro-life supporters. Some evangelicals are trying to get out ahead of this issue, suggesting they too read and believe genetic research.
If a biological basis is found, and if a prenatal test is then developed, and if a successful treatment to reverse the sexual orientation to heterosexual is ever developed, we would support its use as we should unapologetically support the use of any appropriate means to avoid sexual temptation and the inevitable effects of sin. [More]
Consider this position carefully. The insistence on perfect children is not just moderately creepy, it demonstrates how many ideals we will sacrifice to insure their arrival. The same voices who find IVF abhorrent would rush to embrace it to allay their homophobia.

Medical science is handing us moral issues that make nuclear power look like Sunday School. It seems to be speeding up. To date in the West, we have found no effective answer to the struggle to match wisdom with knowledge. Perhaps that is simply how it must be. Discovery is random, and only by discourse and yes, error will we come to grips with new choices.

Of course, we could just opt for fundamentalism to avoid the work, such as our bitter detractors in the Muslim world do.

Most curious is how many of these issues seem to arrive first in our livestock.

(BTW, it's been 10 years since Dolly.)

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I smell a winner!...

The AP ran a story about miniature cattle that was picked up by papers all around the world. I love this idea! As we create more successful small farms, miniature- but familiar - livestock strikes me as an idea whose time has come. It looks to me like all the pieces are in place:

  • A growing number of small acreage farms with limited pasture sizes
  • A "native" species that looks familiar and is docile.
  • An enormous cuteness factor [Note - this link to the NY Times requires registration. It's free, they don't spam me, and nothing bad has happened in three years since I registered, so judge for yourself]- this is a real and important market quality, folks.
  • An infrastructure already in place to feed, house, treat, and research these livestock

[That's a 4-year old bull above]

In fact, I going to go out on limb and predict this idea will be a huge success for breeders of tiny cows. Ditto local processors who can slaughter and package them. Also, stop and think how much easier 4-H projects would be for 8 year-old cowpersons. Laugh if you want, then look at the numbers for miniature dog breeds.

[Re-post from 2006]

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A little action on the side...

Gaming the crop insurance system has been going on since it was invented, of course, but the practice has spread to even my area - not a big area normally for FCI - as producers bet on a seasonal price drop via GRP policies.

It going to be more expensive to place such bets, and it looks like the house is adjusting the slam-dunk odds that favored this practice in 2005 especially. Run your numbers on this excellent analysis tool.

Looks to me like we're turning the safety net into a fishing net.

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Is Iowa still Iowa?...

I have speculated that by moving up their primary, California could have a huge detrimental impact on the importance and coverage of the Iowa caucuses. This is one of my Four Pillars of Farm Policy.

Some however, think that the case is exactly the opposite:
Because Republicans are concerned about losing both control of the legislative branch (2006) and the executive (2008?), the base has decided to be pragmatic. Find me a winner and we'll back him. Because Democrats need to retain control of the legislative branch and believe that they have their best shot since 1992 at picking up the executive, the Netroots are being as pragmatic as the GOP base. So the "aura" if inevitability and electability keeps everyone in their places. Lose that aura and you're done. The front-runners (all of them) can lose that aura completely in Iowa and New Hampshire. And if they do, there's nothing to fall back on, the base will cut them loose in a heartbeat. [More]

One thing is certain, this wide open race - unlike anything we have seen for decades - is going to be very long, very harsh, and very expensive. You think the price of farmland is accelerating - look at the price for the White House!

Regardless, with good chances for higher prices in the foreseeable future, farmers have less to risk in any given candidate. We might surprise people and choose on the basis of gay marriage, or fiscal restraint - or most likely - the Iraq War.

Farmers have never block-voted anyway. But the sense of inevitability of farm program changes and the diminishing economic effect of subsides for many of us certainly can let the attention wander.

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Sunday, March 04, 2007
 
It's not just an erratic stock market...


China - in gorgeous pictures.

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I got 49 in 6 minutes...

And still had 49 after 10 minutes.

[via Presurfer]

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One more reason why we're getting new neighbors in the country...


In a hauntingly beautiful article in Orion magazine, Richard Louv absolutely nails a great idea: No Child Left Inside.

In January 2005, I attended a meeting of the Quivira Coalition, a New Mexico organization that brings together ranchers and environmentalists to find common ground. The coalition is now working on a plan to promote ranches as the new schoolyards. When my turn came to speak, I told the audience how, when I was a boy, I pulled out all those survey stakes in an attempt to keep the earthmovers at bay. Afterward, a rancher stood up. He was wearing scuffed boots. His aged jeans had never seen acid wash, only dirt and rock. His face was sunburned and creased. His drooping moustache was white, and he wore thick eyeglasses with heavy plastic frames, stained with sweat. “You know that story you told about pulling up stakes?” he said. “I did that when I was a boy, too.”

The crowd laughed. I laughed.

And then the man began to cry. Despite his embarrassment, he continued to speak, describing the source of his sudden grief: that he might belong to one of the last generations of Americans to feel that sense of ownership of land and nature. The power of this movement lies in that sense, that special place in our hearts, those woods where the bulldozers cannot reach. Developers and environmentalists, corporate CEOs and college professors, rock stars and ranchers may agree on little else, but they agree on this: no one among us wants to be a member of the last generation to pass on to its children the joy of playing outside in nature.

Often unspoken for a number of reasons, part of the logic for living in the country at the cost of a long and despised commute is the hope of an idyllic "natural" childhood for our children.

Then we buy every version of Play Station when it comes out. Worst of all, we allow wildly off-base risk perceptions to override our logic.
Urban, suburban, and even rural parents cite a number of everyday reasons why their children spend less time in nature than they themselves did, including disappearing access to natural areas, competition from television and computers, dangerous traffic, more homework, and other pressures. Most of all, parents cite fear of stranger-danger. Conditioned by round-the-clock news coverage, they believe in an epidemic of abductions by strangers, despite evidence that the number of child-snatchings (about a hundred a year) has remained roughly the same for two decades, and that the rates of violent crimes against young people have fallen to well below 1975 levels.

I am hopeful nonetheless that alarm over childhood obesity, realization of the failure of force-fed self esteem, and new emphasis on "unstructured time" for children will make ideas like outdoor play areas a higher priority.

[Note: I don't know what it is about that photograph, but it triggered a rush of wonderful memory/emotions the minute I saw it. It was a blessing to grow up outside.]

[via BoingBoing]

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Truth endures...

It has been my conviction that many controversial public decisions eventually get made by elimination, not inspiration. Bad choices unravel over time as their illogic or faulty assumptions become their own undoing. In the same way evidence has piled on to buttress the case for anthropogenic climate change, data is also reducing fears and highlighting positive attributes of solutions that were rejected out of hand a few years ago: nuclear energy, biotech, industrial agriculture and population growth.
Stewart Brand has become a heretic to environmentalism, a movement he helped found, but he doesn’t plan to be isolated for long. He expects that environmentalists will soon share his affection for nuclear power. They’ll lose their fear of population growth and start appreciating sprawling megacities. They’ll stop worrying about “frankenfoods” and embrace genetic engineering. [More]

Brand is simply one example of a committed environmentalist coming to terms with pragmatic solutions. At the Commodity Classic last week (from which your blogger is slowly recovering) during the General Session, Greenspirit spokeman Tom Tevlin offered similar observations about how the environmental movement, as it gains adherents is evolving to a more mature, and realistic approach - at least away from the fringes.

Farmers can help this process, I believe, by avoiding the loaded language and assumptions before we hear from environmentalists. We don't improve communication by habitually referring to "tree-huggers" and "eco-nuts". Remember, our teeth are set on edge by labels like "factory farms" (although I find it OK) and "chemical farming".

To solve the environmental problems we are facing will require all of us to consider what we will allow In My Back Yard, as well as what we won't. It will also mean taking responsibility for our actions individually and as a profession and being willing to submit to objective standards even when the science does not favor our position.

Brand offers a cheerful example of how public figures can acknowledge previous positions and move on to new opinions even in the face of withering derision of "flip-flopping". (Of course, sometimes such heckling can be valid criticism.)
“It is one of the great revelatory bets,” he now says. “Any time that people are forced to acknowledge publicly that they’re wrong, it’s really good for the commonweal. I love to be busted for apocalyptic proclamations that turned out to be 180 degrees wrong. In 1973 I thought the energy crisis was so intolerable that we’d have police on the streets by Christmas. The times I’ve been wrong is when I assume there’s a brittleness in a complex system that turns out to be way more resilient than I thought.”

Agriculture could do worse than embracing similar flexibility and above avoiding any hint of gloating on these issues. Our environmental choices have been made based on real data and our best estimate of the truth. Time will mostly prove us right as opponents gradually discover. Simple patience and humility could enable us to add to our ally list and speed resolution of pending problems.

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Saturday, March 03, 2007
  Principles of economics, translated

We've been wading through some pretty heavy Econ here in JWorld, so I thought this might help.

[via Metafilter]

 
Thursday, March 01, 2007
 
Is this a good idea?...

Colorado is thinking of using inmates to fill in the labor shortage on farms.

A plan to enlist prison inmates to work on Colorado farms that are experiencing a labor shortage has the potential to solve a host of problems at once.

Last year farmers near Pueblo saw crops rot in the fields because, they say, the legislature's crackdown on illegal immigrants diminished the size of their traditional pool of migrant labor. [More]

I don't know about this. To begin with I find the equating of farm work to punishment unfortunate. I also have real doubts about the productivity of forced labor. To put it mildly, I think growers will have a big adjustment from migrant workers - who from all accounts were prodigious workers.

Something about people working in fields with guards around them is historically repugnant and diminishes our profession, in my opinion. A sane immigration policy would be a better answer.

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US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...

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Name: John Phipps
Location: Chrisman, Illinois, United States

Jan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting.

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