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John's World
Saturday, March 31, 2007
For the love of God, Scotty - beam him up!!
Jeez - Shatner couldn't deliver a line coherently before Star Trek either.
Really bad timing...
I have been posting about the animal rights movement and its possible impact on livestock production in the US. We have also been reporting on the ongoing pet-food contamination uproar (see this week's USFR). What if the two issues began to overlap? If you think of dogs and cats as members of the family, you might figure you could collect damages for pain and suffering if they were to die because of wrongdoing. Once companion animals achieve "family" status, it could conceivably raise all animals' legal position, just by comparison. Not necessarily to companion status, but some vague slightly less non-human category. I don't want to seem Cassandra-like, but if we see hundreds of thousands of lawsuits over the pet food, those attorneys won't have to look far for their next targets. To date, we have somehow managed to differentiate between companion animals and food animals. The twentieth century has most certainly borne witness to the exploitation of animal resources upon a scale far grander than ever before. The most striking development - as animal rights activists are keen to point out - is the way in which the cleft between ourselves and agricultural animals has grown as these animals have been increasingly accorded the status of `machines', through the development of the intensive farming methods deemed necessary to meet ever-growing human food demands. Yet whilst the divide between ourselves and food-producing animals has continued to expand, our identification with and dependence upon the smaller, more cuddly species that we keep as pets has also grown. We increasingly keep pets to satisfy our emotional, rather than material, needs and seem to gain tactile comfort and trust from them which might not be found elsewhere in our modern lives. This development has led the birth of small animal medicine and the pet food industry, both of which have done increasingly booming business since 1945. However, even the seemingly innocuous family pet that lurks in our homes, gardens and public parks can be potentially detrimental to our health. For example, pet animal excrement is not only an environmental nuisance, but can also harbour unpleasant infections, such as toxoplasmosis and toxocara, which can seriously threaten human health. Pets can also expose people to a variety of bacterial infections and cause severe allergies. Rigorous animal management and veterinary controls greatly minimise the risks that pet animals pose to human health. Yet again providing evidence of the efficacy of the modern veterinary regime in reducing the potential risks posed by our intimacy with and exploitation of other species. [More]I'm not sure that separation can persist. And this further convinces me that petting zoos are a really, really, bad idea for animal agriculture. It may also be useful to speculate where this greater attachment to animals arises. Is it because we have fewer children? More money? A new perspective on how religion applies? An all-living-things-together attitude? A response to the trauma of our lives? A lack of human contact? My uneasy guess: All of the above. Labels: culture, food, law, production Thursday, March 29, 2007
Not America's first choice...
I stumbled across this throughly charming blog by chance, and before I'd noticed had read several months of entries. The narrative struck me as well voiced and written, certainly more than adequate to describe a way of life that would strike many as irresistible. (BTW, for another great rural writer of similar vein only funnier, check out Brent Olson) His farm is in a beautiful rural location, his family is adorable, and he has a mixture of cute animals to provide pictures and endless amounts of copy.
Notice two things:
But industrial producers need to keep in mind we are not America's first choice for farmers. This guy is. My guess is most folks feel I'm too individualistic, advantaged and obnoxious to deserve this great life. I don't blame others for this nearly instinctive reaction, but I also take seriously that I may have to defend my way of life from people who want to save farming from people like me. We have peddled an agrarian image for so long, we have forgotten we don't match up. Still, the market will sort this choice out. In the end, image doesn't produce crops. Labels: culture, production
Feels like the the tide going out...
Every now and then I think I detect a sea change in our business. Sometimes it pertains only to my farm, but sometimes it simply dawns on me agriculture is shifting course somewhat. This week's news gave me that same impression. Something different our way comes. And it's not just ethanol. The curious upper-end trends in food are being carried to the everyday consumer, not because they embrace them, but because the food industry is adopting them, and that is how nearly 50% of our food is delivered. The immediate example of this development is animal welfare concern by food retailers. In what animal welfare advocates are describing as a “historic advance,” Burger King, the world’s second-largest hamburger chain, said yesterday that it would begin buying eggs and pork from suppliers that did not confine their animals in cages and crates. [More]Obviously BK considers this to be a wise move to improve or protect their competitive position, but also consider that the executives making this decision are also more likely to be shopping at Whole Foods and ordering free-range chicken dishes when they eat out. Higher income consumers set food trends in more ways than simply by example. Cheap food is no longer enough. In fact, "cheap" has taken on a definite downscale connotation. The now widespread practice of selective conspicuous consumption - Manolo shoes with Lee jeans - coupled with the considerable disposable income for many rearranges the shopping profile for America. Food is becoming, I believe, a way to make a personal statement about your class and status, and it is this trend that food retailers are acting on. What you order when you are out with friends may be a subtext, just like the clothes you wear. Now add in the increasing concern with obesity and other surprising health alarms. Suddenly, you have a different answer to what eating is all about. Significantly raising food prices to fund new ways of managing meat animals is not as unthinkable as it was a few decades ago. Consumer resistance to this could be much less than producers imagine. Still the supply-demand effect suggests that we will eat collectively less, but more expensive protein. The implications are significant. The hog and poultry industries will likely be more frequently and harshly examined in the process, and the cattle industry will not go untouched. Meatpacking will be changed as well. Animal welfare is one part of the cause, but the cumulative effect of other simultaneous market choices will be considerable, I think. There will continue to be an enormous demand for reasonably priced food. But the spectrum of market choices for that food could be vastly different. I cannot help but think that all this turmoil and industry dislocation was partly triggered by the constant complaint emanating from farm country: "People don't know where their food comes from." We got our wish. They found out. Labels: food, production Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Forget the fat tax...
One response to the obesity problem in the US is the suggestion to tax unhealthy food, thus steering consumers to better choices.
It sounds reasonable, but likely won't work as well as it might seem. Americans have been getting fatter since at least the mid 1980s. To better understand this public health problem, much attention has been devoted to determining the underlying cause of increasing body weights in the U.S. We It is the level of effect that matters in such economic speculation. Sure, higher prices have an effect, but at the level indicated above, not much. I'm not sure how we can push people to better health habits. I think ending first dollar health plans is one way - and we seem to be moving toward that. But the single best "pull" might be the heightened appreciation for good food. As a rule, home prepared meals offer better nutition and especially portion control. Bring home cooking back! [via Metafilter]
Good news! No, wait...
The National Corn Growers have released a report showing corn prices don't have much effect on food prices. According to the report, if current corn prices recede back to historical levels because of a significant increase in production this year, there would be little or no impact on consumer food prices. The paper concludes that if corn prices remain at the $3.50-4 per bushel range for several years, consumers might experience marginal food inflation for some grocery items. Whew - at least consumers can't blame corn prices for food price inflation. On the other hand, if corn prices have little effect on food prices, then what is the point of subsidies to corn farmers from the consumer point of view? Could "affordable" food be result of an efficient market and not goverment help? Also note the report assumes prices drop back to "historic levels". That's not what farmers are hoping for, I don't think. Labels: farm program, food Monday, March 26, 2007
Signs of the Apocalypse...
![]() Thoughts always change when posted on a wall. Great signs. For instance, how to tell you're in Georgia... Or Texas...![]() Everything you need in one place. [via Mentalfloss] Labels: fun
Another reason to hate soybean aphids...
They are ruining our wine. This type of ladybug has been spreading rapidly across the Midwest because some tasty new prey -- the invasive soybean aphid -- has also become widespread. Winemakers report greater concentrations of ladybugs in their vineyards and on harvested grapes. Apparently the bugs are being mixed into the fermenting grape juice by accident. This is unacceptable. I say: all corn, all the time. Do it for the grapes. Labels: food, production Sunday, March 25, 2007
Nice work if you can get it...
I was goofing around looking through the career choices for geezers like me and I ran across this idea: Religious celebrant. Tending to others' spiritual needs certainly qualifies as a career with "meaning." In addition to traditional ministerial and religious education positions, you can also become a celebrant, someone who helps people mark important events in life with customized ceremonies that reflect their beliefs and backgrounds. I'm getting a picture of some guy who simply shows up at parties and acts as MC or head druid. And then gets paid. What am I missing here?
So, honey, what's for supper?...
![]() A work of staggering genius, The Gallery of Regrettable Foods will help you be truly grateful for your supper tonight. My personal favorites: [via Daily Dish] Labels: fun
The fixed-payment funnel...
Like cattle down the loading chute, American farmers are cheerfully being herded to a WTO-compliant (Green Box) "fixed-payment" subsidy. This will prove to be the last gasp, I think, for ag subsidies here. At least, subsidies that affect how we do our job. Why? Because fixed payments, however generous, will simply become "rent-stamps" for the real power brokers: landowners. Or they will become income streams that can be sold. And if you don't believe me, check out what the single payment system has done in Europe. The EU pays £60 billion a year in farm subsidies, which were originally aimed at boosting production, but last year farmers were given — free — the automatic right to subsidies, known as the single farm payment entitlement, in return for reducing production. They were also given the right to trade the subsidy entitlements between themselves, but the legislation is so loose that in practice anyone can officially qualify as a farmer. [More]My current thought is farmers will rejoice at the thought of Social-Security-like checks showing up annually per acre. Especially if told by Congress the total is above the baseline. Then when the viatical industry gets a whiff of this windfall, the results are pretty easy to predict. That's the beginning of the end. I can't wait. Labels: farm program, trade Saturday, March 24, 2007
The better mosquito...
Since the banning of DDT, malaria has gained ground as a major cause of death and despair in poor tropical countries. The DDT outcry was triggered by Rachel Carson's epic environmental tome, Silent Spring. It was as politically powerful as it was wrong. To be fair, we didn't know then, but her assertion that pesticides are killing us has had a long, long half-life. Even now, writers blithely toss off statements that our water is fouled with pesticides and pesticides cause all sorts of health problems - all without much evidence. You'd think in this setting, GM solutions - which greatly reduce the need for pesticides - would be hailed as wonderful solutions. You'd be wrong. Nonetheless, the march of GM progress continues to offer potent weapons to attack many of humankind's oldest scourges. One of these is the malaria-carrying mosquito. After mosquitoes bite a host with malaria, the parasite that causes the disease proliferates in the insect, readying itself to infect the next human victim. It's no fun being infected, and one might think that mosquitoes would have developed a resistance to the malaria parasite over time. But several studies have suggested that mosquitoes engineered to build defenses against malaria are less fit than insects that chose to live with the parasites. I didn't realize it was a parasite and not the mosquito who was the culprit. What I do know is conquering malaria would be close to a miracle for Sub-Saharan Africa. GM mosquitoes that interfered with development of the malaria parasite would make it more difficult for the organism to become re-established after it had been eradicated from a target area, they said. My point is not to excoriate early environmentalists like Carson, who certainly acted in good faith, and had significant beneficial impact on how we use the tools of technology. But technology does not stand still, and if we cannot revise our decisions in the light of new knowledge, we shall not advance the cause of bettering the human condition. This it the way, I believe, genetic modification will slowly become a technology we feel comfortable using. Just like steam engines terrified pre-industrialists with their power, GM technology will have a acclimatization period. We should take the time. Launching polemics or trading attacks will not advance this cause. Good science will. Labels: GM, health, science, technology
Right up there with wolverine grooming...
![]() Here is how Don Naumann makes a living: Standing in the middle of a thunderstorm under a golfer's umbrella, camera at the ready, waiting for the next lighting strike is one of the keys to the creation of Don Naumann's eclectic electric Lightning & Water Photographs. [More] Oookay - sounds like a business plan to me. What could possibly go wrong? Labels: fun
Only in
Those wacky French - guess what they are up to now? By some estimates they could be on the verge of electing a farmer President of France. ![]() Well, Mr. Bayrou is the anti-excitement candidate, a sort of political Prozac after all the amphetamines of the Sarkozy-Royal conflict. He is fairly young at 55, and he has a relatively full head of hair, but so far he has left the paparazzi in a soporific daze. He wants to unite everyone — he’s a member of a centrist party but might well appoint a Socialist prime minister; he is a Catholic but a staunch defender of secularism in schools. The message is that if he can unite God and the atheists, surely he can unite France.While viewed as unlikely, a Bayrou victory would be an astonishing development even by French standards. A Bayrou victory, which is unlikely but not impossible, would constitute a triple revolution. It would lead first to the end of the Socialist Party created by Francois Mitterrand. Following former prime minister Lionel Jospin's humiliating defeat in 2002, the Socialists simply would not survive a second consecutive failure to reach the second round. Moreover, a Bayrou victory could signify the end of the conservative party created by Chirac, as well as of Charles de Gaulle's Fifth Republic. But de Gaulle's legacy would most likely be snuffed out gently, with nostalgia for both Mitterrand and Chirac possibly proving very tempting for a people disaffected with the political system but desiring to be reassured. France wants the illusion of change, but is continuity what she truly desires? Finally, while this election was expected to usher in a new generation of politicians, few were prepared to anticipate the peaceful political tsunami that a Bayrou victory would bring. Yet that would be the outcome if the attraction towards the center proves to be as irresistible for significant segments of the Socialists and conservative parties as it now seems. [More]Our two party system rules out the possibility of a none-of-the-above vote by the electorate - usually we just stay home on election day to signify discontent. As Republicans grovel to the extreme right and Democrats to the left to gain the nomination, the hope is candidates will wander back to the center after the primaries. Parliamentary systems can actually have centrist candidates, although that seems to insure all the excitement the middle can feature. And Bayrou seems to fulfill those low expectations. The 55-year-old Catholic, a father of six children and farmer from the southwestern French Béarn region, has figured out how to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate, hero of the common man and antidote to voters' dissatisfaction with the government and politics. Bayrou presents himself as a "peacemaker" who stands above the traditional trench warfare between the right and the left, a struggle that has so far consumed the full attention and energy of the frontrunners. [More]He is playing the "farmer card" intensely, despite being in government for a considerable career. (Do I hear a Jimmy Carter drawl?) The outcome in France will likely affect the current economic balance between the dollar and the euro. It will also impact how France deals with their own Islamic question. None of the candidates shows much inclination to adjust hard-line French policies toward farm issues, especially concessions to achieve a WTO success. I'll be watching this campaign, which ends with the election April 22. What happens in France - despite our disinterest - does matter . Friday, March 23, 2007
Because they weren't there before...
My admiration for the early American civilizations increased markedly after reading "1491" and hence I was struck by this weird story. ![]()
Sounds like a pretty radical plan...
What if Congress actually read the bills it passes? Ooooo, scary.... [via Metafilter] Labels: politics Thursday, March 22, 2007
Maybe it's something about the chair...
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is deservedly famous for two things: cryptic pronouncements that somehow proved all things to all listeners, and easy money. For a while, it looked like his successor Ben Bernanke was going to be another breed of cat. But the recent announcement by the FOMC (short for "Op Loan Interest Rate Czars") was notable in that, in the face of some inflation pressures, the Fed appears to be opting for growth. One succinct summary was part of my advisory message from Roach Ag Marketing (I carefully ignore advice from several quality sources): First, it is not what they did that was important but it is what they said that made all the difference. Fed chief Ben Bernanke basically said that he is more willing to consider the fall off in the housing market and the blow up in the sub prime lending market as a more important consideration short term then inflation. Translation: he is likely preparing the market for the potential for rate cuts in the weeks ahead.These comments line up well with my own take - in itself a scary thought for the author Shawn Hackett. We are already seeing significant ag inflation: rents, fuel, fertilizer, etc. Now that could be matched with modest consumer inflation: food (of course, that's partly ethanol's fault), anything imported (dollar plummeting), and services. I have opined before about fixed-rate penalties for ag loans. As you write loans for the machinery now flying out of dealer lots and land you can now almost pay for, make sure you don't lock in a very expensive unneeded interest rate guarantee. I think Ben's a chip off the ol' block... Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Breeding super bugs. Or not...
The issue of antibiotic resistance is a constant wrangle in medical circles that spill over into the animal health arena. Recently, for example the FDA hinted it will approve at new class of antibiotics for use in cattle. Some medicos were not amused. The government is on track to approve a new antibiotic to treat a pneumonia-like disease in cattle, despite warnings from health groups and a majority of the agency's own expert advisers that the decision will be dangerous for people.The bone of contention is the FDA lamely defends the possible move as simply following a directive issued earlier. Regardless, this potential problem is receiving mucho scrutiny. The irony is at the same time physicians are being warned about over-prescribing antibiotics for stuff like ear infections and now sinus infections. (I thought they were the same thing - at least in my aching head). Evidence from national databases suggests that both acute and chronic sinus inflammation (sinusitis) is being overtreated with poorly chosen medications, researchers report.It seems more likely to me overuse in humans is way more conducive to resistant bugs than the more torturous chain of events required to produce superbugs that will leap from cattle to humans. That said, I'm not a big fan of prophylactic dosing of food animals. I know all the other kids are doing it, but I think it may be one reason alternative meats are slowing eating into the high end market share. While cattlemen get all worked up about defending current practice, nimble competitors listen to consumers. Beef may be in for a wrenching decade or two. Ethanol will steal their feed and rising affluence will make consumers whiny malcontents. Meanwhile, rugged individualism often interferes with their ability to adapt and change, since kowtowing to market signals could be seen as weakness. This is just my read on the dynamic in cattle country, not fact. BTW, If you aren't reading our newest columnist, Steve Cornett on the Beef Today Blog, you might want to start. He and I don't see eye to eye on every issue, which probably means he is a little sharper than me. His comments on livestock add a new dimension to AgWeb, and I look forward to linking to and agitating him.
What's on the other side of your piece of the world?...
Hint: It's not China. [via Random Good Stuff] Labels: fun
Why not "delirium"?...
![]() If you survived physics and the periodic table of elements, you may have wondered how some of the weirder ones got their names. OK - well, I did. In keeping with my growing belief, the answer really is out there. On the Internet. For even more elementary information, including the elements of Star Trek, check here.
And what if your brain can't wave?...
Driven by the hideous amounts of money sloshing around the computer gaming industry, brain researchers are developing controllers that read brain waves: Controlling things by mere thought is a staple of science fiction. That fiction, though, is often based on a real technique known as electroencephalography (EEG). This works by deploying an array of electrodes over a person's scalp and recording surface manifestations of the electrical activity going on under his skull. [More]The idea of replacing joysticks with a plastic helmet is one thing. Ponder what it might be like if we climb into our combines and slap a beanie on and take off. What happens when you start daydreaming about playing golf? Or eating cheeseburgers? Or Betty Crocker in a cheerleader outfit? What?? Labels: fun, technology Monday, March 19, 2007
Ya know, I thought it was just me...
Look at these headlines and tell me CNN.com hasn't jumped the shark journalism-wise. ![]() Is there a lower common denominator? Labels: media
We don't get that many Jewish jokes In Edgar County...
The blogosphere is snorting about a hoax "news story". Yaniv Ben-Zaken, a local gas station owner, will be selling Kosher for Passover gasoline during the holiday this year. The move, Ben-Zaken says, has become necessary due to the increased ethanol content in gasoline required by the government. The ethanol is typically derived from corn, which is a forbidden food for Jews on Passover. And, according to Ben-Zaken, underJewish law, it is also forbidden to derive any benefit from corn. [More] Like most good hoaxes, there is just enough truth to make it stand up for a while. And more than a few cerebral blogs swallowed it whole. The “article” does get the two points of Jewish law correct. First, we are forbidden on Passover from having any hametz in our possession or ownership and it is forbidden to obtain a benefit from hametz during the eight days of the holiday. Hametz is any of the five forbidden grains (wheat, barley, oats, spelt, rye) that has been in the presence of moisture for more than eighteen minutes."Kosher ethanol" - ya gotta love it! Coincidentally, as I have mentioned before, I have been listening to lectures on "The Story of the Bible". We're in the middle of the Middle Ages, so to speak, and one question that has long puzzled me was just answered. Why aren't there many Jewish farmers? The answer seemed simple: Jews were forbidden to own land for most of the Christian era, and hence never developed a modern agrarian heritage. Turns out there was more to it than that. Those prohibitions occurred later in the Middle Ages as the Christian Church gained almost absolute power in some areas. The full story was more about education. So—which Jews stuck with Judaism? Presumably those with a particularly strong attachment to their religion and/or a particularly strong attachment to education for education's sake. (The burden of acquiring an education is, after all, less of a burden for those who enjoy being educated.) The result: Over time, you're left with a population of people who enjoy education, are required by their religion to be educated, and are particularly attached to their religion. Naturally, these people tend to become educated. And once they're educated, they leave the farms. [More of a really interesting article]Bottom line: the bright ones chose more lucrative careers, the farmers likely dropped out of Judaism. I wonder if the trend for farming to fail to appeal to our brightest - if not the best - will continue? Or will the technological intensity present a more attractive (and competitive) career?
Dairy Accessory of the Year...
If you're like me, there may be a tendency for bad things to happen at the dinner table when the butter is straight from the fridge. The effort to cut a chunk of butter has been known to propell dairy products hapahazardly about the dining room. Looks like our probs are solved: Behold - the One-Click butter Cutter.
Labels: fun
The trade deficit that wasn't there...
Nobody (including me) is worried about the US trade deficit. One reason is those of us who did worry about it for years have become bored and now worry about other stuff - like global worming. Maybe we don't have to start now, either. The current account deficit - of which the trade balance is the most important part is bad but improving. One reason is people in poor countries send their money here to invest. Because emerging economies' supply of financial instruments is so unreliable, people may hoard more of them as a precautionary measure. Firms and households fear they will not be able to borrow to tide themselves over bad times, therefore they choose to save for a rainy day instead. Because they cannot transfer purchasing power from the future to the present, they must store it from the past. In short, poor countries don't have a whole range of mutual funds and money market accounts and we do. And outside some bad apples like Enron, you can get your money back someday pretty reliably. Another reason our trade balance is improving is our dollar is getting cheaper versus other currencies. This is great for ag because it keeps exports humming and mitigates oil prices (imagine if oil was priced in euros!) After a while, foreign investors may get fed up with getting back less than they invested because of currency fluctuations, but we've been saying that for decades, it seems. The important thing is to make sure other countries don't get their acts together and establish strong property rights laws and credible investment markets to compete with ours. What can go wrong? Sunday, March 18, 2007
Now this was a Future!
I attended the 1965 New York World's Fair, and remember these scenes distinctly. I would have been one of the testosterone-fueled young men in the film.
Cellulosic ethanol rapture...
Every now and then the Christian community gets all riled up about some sign indicating the Rapture (Second Coming) is immanent. This happened back in the 70's when various authors, notably Hal Lindsey extracted from Daniel and Revelations prophesies that seemed (to them) to pinpoint the hour of judgment for mankind. God apparently had other plans, and here we are. But I have noticed all the hubbub about cellulosic ethanol has induced a similar apprehension in many true biofuel believers. "Cellulosic will usurp our hard-won ethanol mandates", they moan. Others worry that within a few years the advantages of cellulosic will make corn ethanol obsolete. To be sure, cellulosic ethanol does have powerful efficiency advantages. And it can be made from whole bunches of cheap inputs - like garbage and trees. But for ethanol made from trees, grasses and other types of biomass which contain a lot of cellulose, the energy balance can be as high as 16, at least in theory. In practice the problem is that producing such “cellulosic” ethanol is much more difficult and expensive than producing it from other crops. But the science, technology and economics of treethanol are changing fast. Researchers are racing to develop ways to chip, ferment, distil and refine wood quickly and cheaply. [More] But I think it's important to read these predictions closely, just like the apocalyptic foretelling of the 70's. For example, notice the sizes of the c-ethanol plants been loudly announced. The Southern California Biorefinery Project will turn green waste and wood residues at landfills into about 19 million gallons of fuel grade ethanol per year. Additional products that will also be sold include lignin, gypsum, and yeast. BlueFires's current production estimates for the project will be significantly lower that DOE's cellulosic ethanol goal of $1.07/gal in production costs by 2012, and DOE's current estimate of approximately $2.26/gal. [More] Now contrast 19 million gallons with the 100-million gallon corn ethanol plants starting up about weekly. Next check the press releases for any mention of partnering with feedstock suppliers. Unlike corn ethanol plants which were pushed by corn growers, c-ethanol backers have not bothered to link strongly to sufficient suppliers to create very much of the stuff. When they do get around to sourcing straw or stover or whatever, my guess is the value of these formerly low-cost feeds will skyrocket. Even corn growers would have to be compensated significantly to gather, handle, store and deliver bales of stover. And then add more fertilizer to compensate. My view is c-ethanol is one of the great hustles of the energy bubble. If it happens in my lifetime I may live too long. Besides, I don't find any mention of it in Daniel. Saturday, March 17, 2007
For all you guys with excavators...
Don't need no stinkin' lowboy trailer.
CPR may soon be CR...
Years ago I taught Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation as a volunteer for the Red Cross. Since then I have noticed the methods have been changed almost annually. Fair enough - rescuers have undoubtedly learned more from actually using the technique. Well, a BIG change may be coming. Forget the mouth-to-mouth stuff (at least for cardiac arrest). Forget mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. When somebody collapses in cardiac arrest, experts now say, bystanders should not bother breathing into his or her mouth, once considered a key component of cardiopulmonary resuscitation. One reason compressions-only has been more successful is the reluctance of bystanders to do full CPR, so no compressions at all were given. Updating the methods taught will also end a standard joke set-up that was worn out years ago. (Bunch of guys - one collapses - all argue about who does the "kiss of life" - etc.) For a really good demonstration and some pretty straightforward information about how successful resuscitation may be, click here. Important to remember for farmers: mouth-to-mouth is still imperative for drowning, suffocation, etc. when breathing has stopped first. Labels: health Friday, March 16, 2007
Saving or not...
In the previous post, I linked to a report on the US savings rate and got a great question: If the savings rate doesn't include retirement accounts, doesn't that skew the results? Here's one answer: And another: Every year private pensions pay billions of dollars to retirees that aren't counted on the positive side in the official savings rate.I dunno - whether to include the excess of disbursements over contributions as savings is an accountant call. I'm going to go with the DOC on this one. Regardless, if we use the same yardstick we can at least measure which way we are going and roughly how fast. My read is down and pretty. Another point which probably has more effect is capital gains, especially house prices. My feeling is the home price boom became the savings vehicle for most of the US. This seemed like a good strategy until a few months ago. Is our savings rate a problem? Some say no. I think so, if only in comparison to our past and other countries. The point I was making below, is even if we are saving by means of "hidden savings" like our houses, we are certainly spending all the cash we bring home. Labels: economics
When food markets collide...
Disposable income is wandering around looking for adventure, I think. Maybe it's because many are still hanging their investment hats on residential real estate to solve their retirement needs. One result is we are not saving money - we're spending it. Even more interesting is what we are spending it on. To be sure, we've gobbling up luxury goods, but it also seems the high-end food business is doing very well. What we've seen in the food sector recently is the reversal of the deflation occurring elsewhere, in clothing for example,” said Davies. “There is definitely scope for smaller businesses at the high end, catering for niche markets in wealthier areas - of which there are more and more in the UK.” [More] This is a change for the entire food chain. We have built our business plan around the cost of food, namely, a constant effort to get more food to the consumer at ever lower prices. Suddenly price seems to be less of a consideration for all but the poorest Americans. This market divergence has many food producers and processors caught looking both ways. The high-end market promises lucrative profits, but how big will it get? Moreover, this sector is notoriously fad-driven, unlike the old meat and potato business. Are big businesses nimble enough to serve it? One indicator of this new food marketing arena could be stories like the this: Richard Hebron, 41, was driving along an anonymous stretch of highway near Ann Arbor, Mich., last October when state cops pulled him over, ordered him to put his hands on the hood of his mud-splattered truck and seized its contents: 453 gal. of milk. The milk business is far from free market. Not merely subsidized, it is strongly regulated, so efforts like this tiny raw-milk niche can may be more threatening to the milk system than the digestive system. It will be fun to watch if the stream of food-conscious dollars can erode the food industry bulwarks by end-around schemes like this. Then too, there is also the (small) chance that farm policy might get involved in food instead of grain. Labels: food Thursday, March 15, 2007
Yeah, right...
This is the kind of irresponsible science journalism that I despise. The headline: Monster whirlpool off SydneyAnd here is the picture![]() And here is the explanation of the picture
Dude, a "MONSTER WHIRLPOOL" should not have to be explained. It should be sucking oil tankers in. Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Important space discovery...
Make your own model Enterprise from office supplies. ![]() Gee, I wonder why worker productivity is slowing down? [via Neatorama] Labels: fun
This could get uglier...
Although many on Wall Street are downplaying the sub-prime mortgage swoon, it seems to be growing nonetheless. The trouble is the slide can generate its own momentum. As foreclosures rise, more houses come on the already crowded market, and new groups of possible buyers dwindle. Meanwhile, all those who took it as a solid assumption home prices would appreciate a tidy 4-7% annually are faced with a different business plan. Flipping properties, especially for highly leveraged speculators, could be along time regaining profitability. Could this touch our wonderful little commodity party? I think so, because we have so much "outside" money in commodities tight now. But as to which way - I have no idea. One thought is commodities will look more attractive by comparison, hence funds will keep buying. A second choice is as the Dow declines in response the lost equity will suck up money available for commodity speculation. This seems like a reach given the numbers involved, but the slow-motion meltdown in mortgages is not shrinking. One thing that could be helpful is more pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates to help keep some mortgages going through another wave of refi's similar to a few years ago. We seem to have a pattern in the US now of slow-motion disasters: Iraq, Libby, Britney, the Chief, and now this. I guess we love pulling the bandaids off really slow. Labels: economy
Now I see...
We're having a blast up here at Miller Electric in Appleton, WI. The three winners of the Farm Journal "Welding University" contest are getting chance to try out some state-of-the-art equipment and have experts help them improve their skills. To show you what a quantum leap this has been for us, none of us had ever used an auto-darkening hood. Boy howdy - what a difference to these far-sighted eyes! That's $250 I'm definitely going to invest in my welding tool inventory ASAP. Stan Smith is using the X-treme 375 Plasma Torch. This rascal weighs all of 18 pounds and can cut 1/2 metal easily. None of us had ever used a plasma torch either, like many farmers and hobby metalworkers, and this was eye-opening. Throw in the new trend to small, light tools with inverter technology, and some of us might be able to leverage meager skills up to passable competence. It is astonishing how technology can ramp up seldom used-skills to acceptable levels. This can be irritating for welders who have taken the time and effort to master the craft, I know. But it also means that amateur metal workers have a wider range of projects they can undertake and repair abilities to save time and hassle. We'll be showing our experiences on US Farm Report this weekend, and you can read all about it in detail in Farm Journal soon. The winners are taking home some pretty dang cool tools. Not that I'm jealous, mind you... Labels: fun, production Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Wandering trends aren't news to me...
It hard enough in the news business to follow current trends. Extrapolating them to the future can drive you nuts. For example, just when we have all decided Americans will be flooding on-line to get their news, evidence pops up that the trend may be slowing. ![]() When it comes to online news in particular, however, there are clearer signs that the size of the audience has leveled off. That was true both for occasional news consumption and for the percentage of those going online for news more frequently. Before the industry yells, "It's a trick - retreat!!" we need to notice what else is happening to the news biz. Namely, newspapers aren't exactly pulling out of their nosedive. In 2006, the traditional indicators were all negative: Network TV ended up in a draw, and magazines looked to cross boundaries. Time, the giant of the news weeklies, took the lead in promising change. It announced a new publication date and a new way of measuring audience that it hoped might soon combine print and online. It redesigned its Web site to de-emphasize the print magazine. It also hinted, more cryptically, at a new editorial approach, one that is more interpretive. Then it slashed more of its staff. My guess on all this is the first ones to tie them all together will be the winners. One interesting note is since online research is so much easier and reliable, online readership gets much more scrutiny. It is also critical to deliver news to the right people in the right way. The final product - what I think of as "merged media" - will look like all these traditional sources from some angle, perhaps. Our sense remains, too, that traditional journalism is not, as some suggest, becoming irrelevant. There is more evidence now that new technology companies have had either limited success in news gathering (Yahoo, AOL), or have avoided it altogether (Google). Whoever owns them, old newsrooms now seem more likely than a few years ago to be the foundations for the newsrooms of the future. Regardless, we will be inventing the new "news" as we go along. Those of you reading this will help build ag journalism's future format. Thanks. Labels: media Monday, March 12, 2007
Old dog vs. new tricks...
I'm off to "Welding University" for US Farm Report. Along with the three winners of our contest in Farm Journal, I'll be learning from the pro's at Miller Electric in Appleton, WI. We're taking a videographer so you can all watch how it's supposed to be done. Posting could be thin however - lots of quality road time. Don't start farming without me! Labels: blog Sunday, March 11, 2007
Just for Monday...
![]() It's all in the art of perspective. [More great camera work] [via Daily Dish] Labels: fun
Why don't we do it in our sleeves?...
I made through the winter only to catch a cold in March. So I've been doing my homework.
Just in time for wedding-gift season...
What new bride wouldn't choose this pattern? ![]() [via Neatorama] Labels: fun
New book review...
![]() 1491 by Charles Mann. If you grow corn, or love someone who does, you need to read this book. Saturday, March 10, 2007
A very quiet, very big step...
Economist Hernando de Soto captured it best (if over-emphatically) in his brilliant book, The Mystery of Capital: the biggest impediment for poor people around the globe in the lack of a system of property rights. Even as I wade through a legal morass of deeds, abstracts, and title insurance to rationalize my mother's estate, I recognize the power of this system whereby I can say with considerable assurance, "This is mine". According to de Soto, the poor of Third-World countries are not victims of rapacious capitalism, but rather are wronged by the lack of property rights and with outright bureaucratic barriers that prevent the poor from gaining access to capital. Thus, they languish in the vast "informal sectors," or underground markets, that so characterize much of the Third World.Such a fundamental and overlooked capacity here in the US. Yet this mundane paperwork jungle has unleashed the power of American innovation and hidden capital with astonishing results. Now China is poised on the brink of unleashing this power in their communist country. Not all at once, of course, but it appears the first step has been taken. (For a semi-humorous, state-approved account of this development, check here.) This latest law, likewise, will not bring the full property-rights revolution China's development demands. Indeed, it will not meet the most crying need: to give peasants marketable ownership rights to the land they farm. If they could sell their land, tens of millions of underemployed farmers might find productive work. Those who stay on the farm could acquire bigger land holdings and use them more efficiently. Nor will the new law let peasants use their land as security on which they could borrow and invest to boost productivity. Nor, even now, will they be free from the threat of expropriation, another disincentive to investment. Much good land has already been grabbed, and the new law will merely protect the grabbers' gains.The implications are hard to overestimate. While making other steps toward free markets, The government action could be pivotal for millions of peasants. The industriousness of the Chinese is awe-inspiring. By coupling that with an ability control wealth and build on it, China may be on the verge of a long-needed transition to greater possibilities for all their citizens. Labels: economics, globalization
Darth Mail...
To celebrate the 30th Anniversary of Star Wars, the US Postal Service is rolling out (heh-heh) these mailboxes. ![]() These would be mailboxes suitable for handling "princess holograms", presumably. [via BoingBoing] Labels: fun Friday, March 09, 2007
Everyone knows it's windy...
Ah, yes, reality sinks in for alternative energy fans. Literally. It seems wind and solar energy enthusiasts are encountering some resistance to their plan for saving the planet: Wind energy to be sure, but also solar has a the same problem as comedians: Timing. Delivering lots of free power when nobody needs it is no help. Asking to be paid for it is another stretch. And then when the load is heavy... This leads to bizarre ideas about how to match supply with demand.
Labels: energy
What's that about?...
News reports all seem to have obligatory coverage of the "ethanol pact" or biofuels agreement" or "ethanol accord" between Brazil and the US. All of them dutifully report what it doesn't include:
So what exactly did Bush and da Silva agree to, you know, actually do? As near as I can tell, they agreed to sign an agreement. Now we're getting somewhere!Thursday, March 08, 2007
"Green" hot tub...
And not just the water this time! Check out this low hassle hot tub: ![]() You'd think the Dutch of all folks would know you don't advertise hot-tubs with some dork in green trunks. I mean the country is teeming with hot blondes, fer cryin' out loud. [via Presurfer] Labels: fun
Thank goodness Julia Child isn't here...
She'd be heartbroken and/or outraged. As the transfat police gather momentum, egged on by soybean farmers, we're about to do injury to our dairy farmers, and even more sadly - our taste buds.
Transfats sound like something distilled in lab from industrial waste. I blame the name. Plus normally responsible information sources have done a poor or even slanted job of explaining that transfats are naturally occurring and present in familiar healthful foods. It's also important to remember how we got here - by following the advice of people who now are hysterical about transfats: In the mid-1980s, Jacobson launched a campaign against saturated fats—then CSPI's "panic du jour." In turn, CSPI demanded that restaurants stop using beef tallow to cook French fries and other foods. By the early 1990s, most restaurants had acquiesced to Jacobson's demands. Just a few of us can remember what McDonald's fries used to taste like. Look, transfats can be managed, but taking butter out of croissants is not the right way. I suggest eating just one and walking to the bakery to get it. And the worse thing producers could do is encourage food-fundamentalists to push ingredient bans through legislative bodies. There is something about this business that triggers bad consequences when choice and market action is overridden by edict. I think the ethanol mandate has become the business model for commodity producers. Besides since when did following New York City fashion turn out to be winning strategy for the Midwest? Wednesday, March 07, 2007
A time to re-invest?...
The indications from the housing sector are not encouraging. Some even compare the problems to the technology bubble bursting in 2000 (mere days after I invested in a tech fund): I do not dismiss lightly the pain being felt in the home-building sector, but there may be an opportunity for farmers hidden here as well. As development slows to work through a large inventory of unsold new homes and the sub-prime lending problem, 1031 money slows as well. It may take some time for it to restart as well. That sources of funds for land ownership competition may be diminishing therefore, just when farmers will be enjoying significantly higher returns. I still think land prices will jump this year and especially in 2008, but producers may have a window of lessened competition. Not everyone agrees, of course, with my devotion to owning (nearby) ground. Maximizing returns could point to another asset or investment choice. While this is valid, no other asset will protect your career, which I feel is more fragile than ever. We don't need many farmers, and the line to join up is very long. Land ownership brings the absolute power to decide who farms those acres - a right of great value. I'll be writing about this in Top Producer later this year, but of all the threats facing grain producers, a sharply lower need for people is Number One in my book. Labels: farmland, production
At least I'm not the only one...
First it was reviewers, Windows Vista: more than five years in the making, more than 50 million lines of code. The result? A vista slightly more inspiring than the one over the town dump. The new slogan is: "The 'Wow' Starts Now," and Microsoft touts new features, many filched shamelessly from Apple's Macintosh. But as with every previous version, there's no wow here, not even in ironic quotes. Vista is at best mildly annoying and at worst makes you want to rush to Redmond, Wash. and rip somebody's liver out. [More]Now it's users who are incensed by the poor performance of MS Vista. Including one really important user - the US Government. Citing concerns over cost and compatibility, the top technology official at the federal Department of Transportation has placed a moratorium on all in-house computer upgrades to Microsoft's new Windows Vista operating system, as well as Internet Explorer 7 and Office 2007, according to a memo obtained Friday by InformationWeek. [More]My own travails are documented here and here. I may yet wind up with a Mac... Update: One reason Vista may perform so poorly is the extraordinary encryption built in to prevent copying movies. In satisfying the entertainment industry, usability was the first oxen gored.
I don't think this story is over yet. Labels: computer
Another mystery solved...
How do Waffle House cooks keep multiple orders separate? ![]() - Da Condiment Code [via BoingBoing] Labels: fun Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Water to Snow 2
Those wacky meteorologists at Mt. Washington, NH have a demonstration of what really cold means.
No wonder we like cheeseburgers...
Deep down inside we're all dairy farmers.
The idea of milk being safer because it had been "filtered" through a cow never struck me. It's like how Chinese laborers fared better during the building of the Transcontinental Railroad because they drank tea which had been effectively sterilized by boiling instead of raw water .
The evolution of birth risk...
Having babies used to be an enormous risk for women. Medical efforts have drastically reduced the chance of bad outcomes - largely in the last century. But the risks are not zero - and modern parents find no comfort in tiny numbers.
The growing assumption that every physiological problem is "fixable" seems well-grounded in daily medical advances. For example, I expect to see an effective end to most cancer before I die. But this brave new world of body repair offers some moral pitfalls. Suppose, as I do, homosexuality is biologically determined via genetics. Now further suppose it can be easily and safely tested for in utero. This offers an interesting quandary for many committed pro-life supporters. Some evangelicals are trying to get out ahead of this issue, suggesting they too read and believe genetic research. If a biological basis is found, and if a prenatal test is then developed, and if a successful treatment to reverse the sexual orientation to heterosexual is ever developed, we would support its use as we should unapologetically support the use of any appropriate means to avoid sexual temptation and the inevitable effects of sin. [More]Consider this position carefully. The insistence on perfect children is not just moderately creepy, it demonstrates how many ideals we will sacrifice to insure their arrival. The same voices who find IVF abhorrent would rush to embrace it to allay their homophobia. Medical science is handing us moral issues that make nuclear power look like Sunday School. It seems to be speeding up. To date in the West, we have found no effective answer to the struggle to match wisdom with knowledge. Perhaps that is simply how it must be. Discovery is random, and only by discourse and yes, error will we come to grips with new choices. Of course, we could just opt for fundamentalism to avoid the work, such as our bitter detractors in the Muslim world do. Most curious is how many of these issues seem to arrive first in our livestock. (BTW, it's been 10 years since Dolly.) Labels: culture
I smell a winner!...
The AP ran a story about miniature cattle that was picked up by papers all around the world. I love this idea! As we create more successful small farms, miniature- but familiar - livestock strikes me as an idea whose time has come. It looks to me like all the pieces are in place:
In fact, I going to go out on limb and predict this idea will be a huge success for breeders of tiny cows. Ditto local processors who can slaughter and package them. Also, stop and think how much easier 4-H projects would be for 8 year-old cowpersons. Laugh if you want, then look at the numbers for miniature dog breeds. [Re-post from 2006] Labels: fun, rural life
A little action on the side...
Gaming the crop insurance system has been going on since it was invented, of course, but the practice has spread to even my area - not a big area normally for FCI - as producers bet on a seasonal price drop via GRP policies. It going to be more expensive to place such bets, and it looks like the house is adjusting the slam-dunk odds that favored this practice in 2005 especially. Run your numbers on this excellent analysis tool. Looks to me like we're turning the safety net into a fishing net. Labels: production
Is Iowa still Iowa?...
I have speculated that by moving up their primary, California could have a huge detrimental impact on the importance and coverage of the Iowa caucuses. This is one of my Four Pillars of Farm Policy. Some however, think that the case is exactly the opposite: Because Republicans are concerned about losing both control of the legislative branch (2006) and the executive (2008?), the base has decided to be pragmatic. Find me a winner and we'll back him. Because Democrats need to retain control of the legislative branch and believe that they have their best shot since 1992 at picking up the executive, the Netroots are being as pragmatic as the GOP base. So the "aura" if inevitability and electability keeps everyone in their places. Lose that aura and you're done. The front-runners (all of them) can lose that aura completely in Iowa and New Hampshire. And if they do, there's nothing to fall back on, the base will cut them loose in a heartbeat. [More] One thing is certain, this wide open race - unlike anything we have seen for decades - is going to be very long, very harsh, and very expensive. You think the price of farmland is accelerating - look at the price for the White House! Regardless, with good chances for higher prices in the foreseeable future, farmers have less to risk in any given candidate. We might surprise people and choose on the basis of gay marriage, or fiscal restraint - or most likely - the Iraq War. Farmers have never block-voted anyway. But the sense of inevitability of farm program changes and the diminishing economic effect of subsides for many of us certainly can let the attention wander. Labels: politics Sunday, March 04, 2007
One more reason why we're getting new neighbors in the country...
![]() In a hauntingly beautiful article in Orion magazine, Richard Louv absolutely nails a great idea: No Child Left Inside.
Often unspoken for a number of reasons, part of the logic for living in the country at the cost of a long and despised commute is the hope of an idyllic "natural" childhood for our children. Then we buy every version of Play Station when it comes out. Worst of all, we allow wildly off-base risk perceptions to override our logic. Urban, suburban, and even rural parents cite a number of everyday reasons why their children spend less time in nature than they themselves did, including disappearing access to natural areas, competition from television and computers, dangerous traffic, more homework, and other pressures. Most of all, parents cite fear of stranger-danger. Conditioned by round-the-clock news coverage, they believe in an epidemic of abductions by strangers, despite evidence that the number of child-snatchings (about a hundred a year) has remained roughly the same for two decades, and that the rates of violent crimes against young people have fallen to well below 1975 levels. I am hopeful nonetheless that alarm over childhood obesity, realization of the failure of force-fed self esteem, and new emphasis on "unstructured time" for children will make ideas like outdoor play areas a higher priority. [Note: I don't know what it is about that photograph, but it triggered a rush of wonderful memory/emotions the minute I saw it. It was a blessing to grow up outside.] [via BoingBoing] Labels: culture
Truth endures...
It has been my conviction that many controversial public decisions eventually get made by elimination, not inspiration. Bad choices unravel over time as their illogic or faulty assumptions become their own undoing. In the same way evidence has piled on to buttress the case for anthropogenic climate change, data is also reducing fears and highlighting positive attributes of solutions that were rejected out of hand a few years ago: nuclear energy, biotech, industrial agriculture and population growth. Stewart Brand has become a heretic to environmentalism, a movement he helped found, but he doesn’t plan to be isolated for long. He expects that environmentalists will soon share his affection for nuclear power. They’ll lose their fear of population growth and start appreciating sprawling megacities. They’ll stop worrying about “frankenfoods” and embrace genetic engineering. [More] Brand is simply one example of a committed environmentalist coming to terms with pragmatic solutions. At the Commodity Classic last week (from which your blogger is slowly recovering) during the General Session, Greenspirit spokeman Tom Tevlin offered similar observations about how the environmental movement, as it gains adherents is evolving to a more mature, and realistic approach - at least away from the fringes. Farmers can help this process, I believe, by avoiding the loaded language and assumptions before we hear from environmentalists. We don't improve communication by habitually referring to "tree-huggers" and "eco-nuts". Remember, our teeth are set on edge by labels like "factory farms" (although I find it OK) and "chemical farming". To solve the environmental problems we are facing will require all of us to consider what we will allow In My Back Yard, as well as what we won't. It will also mean taking responsibility for our actions individually and as a profession and being willing to submit to objective standards even when the science does not favor our position. Brand offers a cheerful example of how public figures can acknowledge previous positions and move on to new opinions even in the face of withering derision of "flip-flopping". (Of course, sometimes such heckling can be valid criticism.) “It is one of the great revelatory bets,” he now says. “Any time that people are forced to acknowledge publicly that they’re wrong, it’s really good for the commonweal. I love to be busted for apocalyptic proclamations that turned out to be 180 degrees wrong. In 1973 I thought the energy crisis was so intolerable that we’d have police on the streets by Christmas. The times I’ve been wrong is when I assume there’s a brittleness in a complex system that turns out to be way more resilient than I thought.” Agriculture could do worse than embracing similar flexibility and above avoiding any hint of gloating on these issues. Our environmental choices have been made based on real data and our best estimate of the truth. Time will mostly prove us right as opponents gradually discover. Simple patience and humility could enable us to add to our ally list and speed resolution of pending problems. Labels: energy, environment, population, science Saturday, March 03, 2007
Principles of economics, translated
We've been wading through some pretty heavy Econ here in JWorld, so I thought this might help. Thursday, March 01, 2007
Is this a good idea?...
Colorado is thinking of using inmates to fill in the labor shortage on farms.
I don't know about this. To begin with I find the equating of farm work to punishment unfortunate. I also have real doubts about the productivity of forced labor. To put it mildly, I think growers will have a big adjustment from migrant workers - who from all accounts were prodigious workers. Something about people working in fields with guards around them is historically repugnant and diminishes our profession, in my opinion. A sane immigration policy would be a better answer. Labels: labor, production US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...
About MeJan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. ARCHIVES
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