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John's World
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Raising the intellectual level...
Perhaps like some of us, you never really understood Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Afraid to admit it, weren't you? Well, good news, citizen. Here's an explanation in words of four letters or less. Say you woke up one day and your bed was gone. Your room, too. Gone. It's all gone. You wake up in an inky void. Not even a star. Okay, yes, it's a dumb idea, but just go with it. Now say you want to know if you move or not. Are you held fast in one spot? Or do you, say, list off to the left some? What I want to ask you is: Can you find out? Hell no. You can see that, sure. You don't need me to tell you. To move, you have to move to or away from ... well, from what? You'd have to say that you don't even get to use a word like "move" when you are the only body in that void. Sure. Okay. Now, let's add the bed back. Your bed is with you in the void. But not for long -- it goes away from you. You don't have any way to get it back, so you just let it go. But so now we have a body in the void with you. So does the bed move, or do you move? Or both? Well, you can see as well as I that it can go any way you like. Flip a coin. Who's to say? It's best to just say that you move away from the bed, and that the bed goes away from you. No one can say who's held fast and who isn't. [More]I'm glad we had this little talk. Next week: how they get the cream filling in Twinkies.
Where autumn is...
I have used the Windows XP-supplied screen saver "Autumn" on my laptop for a couple of years. Like others I was struck by the beauty and composition of the shot. ![]() Somebody tried to find out where it was photographed. A great story followed. [Re-post for Arlen]
The further adventures of Contextor...
Born on a strange planet in rural Illinois - the very edge of known space - this mysterious stranger wages a never ending battle to place misleading statistics in context. Today's Episode: Wind Farms and Homes One day, Contextor noticed whenever wind farms are mentioned, the most prominent number used to describe their size is "how many homes their electricity would power": Power firm E.ON said the development five miles (8km) off the Humber estuary would be capable of providing electricity to almost 200,000 homes. [More]and Wind power plants, or wind farms as they are sometimes called, are clusters of wind machines used to produce electricity. A wind farm usually has dozens of wind machines scattered over a large area. The world's largest wind farm, the Horse Hollow Wind Energy Center in Texas, has 421 wind turbines that generate enough electricity to power 230,000 homes per year. [More] "Gosh!" Contextor thought, trying to imagine what 230,000 houses would look like. That's mucho electricity. Isn't it? In 2005, wind machines in the United States generated a total of 17.8 billion kWh per year of electricity, enough to serve more than 1.6 million households. This is enough electricity to power a city the size of Chicago, but it is only a small fraction of the nation's total electricity production, about 0.4 percent. The amount of electricity generated from wind has been growing fast in recent years, tripling since 1998.Contextor was puzzled why the overall impact of wind energy was not more clearly spelled out. Doesn't it imply we can just windmill the US to plentiful cheap energy like the good old days of hydroelectric development? Contextor brooded and decided one reason could be the economics are struggling with the virtue of the idea. Wind energy just seems so wonderful it just has to work. Reasonable people can disagree on the merits of putting turbines on Nantucket Sound, as proposed by a private company. Though costs have come down to 4.5 cents per kilowatt hour from 6.1 per KWH in 1999, the technology is still not balancing out as cost-effective for some areas. Last week, Long Island scratched its plans to build a wind energy center in the Atlantic when costs were running up toward $800 million. Projects in windy Texas have also been scrapped over cost considerations.Contextor looked hard at the glowing press releases and the total energy statistics. "Hmm, wind energy looks like a good thing, but a very high-cost, low-yield good thing to Contextor" Stay tuned for our next semi-exciting episode wherein Contextor muses: "Why does Contextor refer to Contextor in the third person? Could Contextor have a Pronoun Problem?" Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Hey - I owned 5 of these cars!...
![]() The World's Ten Ugliest Cars. The infamous AMC Pacer above. What a chick magnet! Labels: fun
Make mine RW scotch...
While opponents of genetic modification uniformly warn of health and environmental consequences that must inevitably follow, that's not how things seem to turning out. We now have years of real-world consumption of GM products to point to as reassurance of the safety and efficacy. In fact, one form of genetic manipulation - radiation breeding - isn't all that far removed from cartoons by anti-nuclear protestors. Though poorly known, radiation breeding has produced thousands of useful mutants and a sizable fraction of the world’s crops, Dr. Lagoda said, including varieties of rice, wheat, barley, pears, peas, cotton, peppermint, sunflowers, peanuts, grapefruit, sesame, bananas, cassava and sorghum. The mutant wheat is used for bread and pasta and the mutant barley for beer and fine whiskey.While obviously competing with other forms of genetic manipulation, it is hardly surprising that "mutant breeders" would try to open an imaginary space between themselves and GM. But who's fooling whom? Lagoda who irradiates plants to produce mutants is being somewhat disingenuous when he says, "I’m not doing anything different from what nature does." True, mutations occur in nature all of the time, but it seems somewhat doubtful that plants out in a field experience anywhere near the number of uncharacterized mutations produced in a lab by gamma rays.Breeders have the right to try to position themselves however they want to gain some market advantage, but it looks to me like any market advantage will be slim and temporary. GM works, and we're getting better and better at it. Tuesday, August 28, 2007
We're not the only ones with a bumper crop...
Say what you will against the ol' Taliban in Afghanistan, but at least it kept the poppies mowed. Yesterday the U.N. announced that opium production in Afghanistan hit a record level this year. You may feel as if you've read this news before: Opium production in Afghanistan also hit a record level last year. This year 193,000 hectares of poppies were cultivated, up 17 percent from last year's 165,000. Thanks to favorable weather that led to high yields, opium production rose even more, from about 6,700 tons in 2006 to about 9,000 tons this year, an increase of 34 percent. The U.N. says Afghanistan's opium now represents 93 percent of the world total, compared to 92 percent last year. [More] The explosion of opium trade indicates to me why the "war on drugs" is just about as as successful as some other conflicts we are stuck in. Unless you are willing to deal with the demand for illicit drugs, there is little evidence you can stop the production. Then again, legalizing, taxing, and regulating the drug trade could deflate the profits, crime and policing costs while arguably having little effect on consumption. Labels: drugs
China hasn't caught on yet, but ...
On a global level the economic miracle that is modern China is far more involved than immediately apparent. Like the NIMBY affluents they are, the developed world has been happy to let China become the nineteenth-century Pittsburgh of the world, hosting nasty, smelly polluting facilities and shipping the products out. China has become so good at being the forge of the world, the rate of pollution is literally breath-taking. But just as the speed and scale of China’s rise as an economic power have no clear parallel in history, so its pollution problem has shattered all precedents. Environmental degradation is now so severe, with such stark domestic and international repercussions, that pollution poses not only a major long-term burden on the Chinese public but also an acute political challenge to the ruling Communist Party. And it is not clear that China can rein in its own economic juggernaut.Free-trade foes should ponder how much we want those dirty jobs back. While employment for undereducated Americans was a godsend when our industrial age was dawning, pushing Americans to get more education and shift to non-manufacturing jobs isn't all bad either. Our economy demonstrates this positive aspect of globalization. But factories and power plants have to be somewhere, and I think China is awakening to the fact that what we have really outsourced to them is our environmental problems. It has implications for their ag sector as well. Perhaps an even more acute challenge is water. China has only one-fifth as much water per capita as the United States. But while southern China is relatively wet, the north, home to about half of China’s population, is an immense, parched region that now threatens to become the world’s biggest desert. The surge in US pork exports to China that experts attribute to Chinese swine disease problems and Beijing Olympic stage-dressing could be just the first indicator of an important trend. We saw something like this as the Soviet ag sector crumbled, but this time the customer is loaded with cash. Labels: environment, pork, trade Monday, August 27, 2007
Why we won't move to a "warm climate"...
My father's generation of farmers at least, placed great stock in being warm. The attraction of a winter home where the sun never failed and the temperature never made water a solid was irresistible to them. So off they embarked to places made habitable only by air-conditioning. When I visited my folks in Florida, I came away with a feeling of escaping from a future too ghastly for contemplation. It persists today. Perhaps its because I have had the advantages of fleece winter coats, four-wheel drive SUV's and reliable central heating, but I have never been tempted to yank up roots to simply experience more summer than I feel nature intended. It could be more than that. Aging occurs differently in different places. Years ago I learned something about aging -- that it wasn't so much the date of your birth but the place you were living in that determined whether or not you were old. There was a geography of aging in America. I began to notice this when I moved from Manhattan to Los Angeles in the nineteen seventies and stayed there through the nineties working as a script writer for various studios. I don't have any East Coast snobbery about the culture or lack of it in LA: nice, sentient, intelligent, art loving, caring people actually live there -- but it became clear to me that every time I returned home to New York to visit my folks I felt ten years younger, and every time I stepped out of the terminal at LAX I aged a decade. At first I didn't have a clue as to why that was happening -- I figured that it wasn't just because my parents still viewed me as their youngest child in New York it was the LA experience. I eventually learned that one became an official senior citizen at fifty in Los Angeles, and New York was holding fast to sixty five. Sure, I could get into movies cheaper, but in LA people canvassing in malls failed to ask my opinion on any topic -- I was outside the cherished demographic of 18-40. Then it happened. When I reached fifty nine, my important LA agent called me into his office and sadly, gently fired me -- noting that although I had many awards for writing, indeed too many which gave away the length of my career, and I was a helluva nice guy, he couldn't sell me to the studios or the networks. The message the agent conveyed was that I was old news... out of touch with the zeitgeist... incapable of understanding or creating what America wanted -- an America dominated by the young, and the youth worshipers. As the father of two young sons I was stunned by this -- I felt I knew more about how young people felt and acted than most young people. But the tide was too strong to fight it, and I soon went to Germany to work on a film, and later managed to do a series for the BBC. [More] It is very likely I am deeply in denial and time will reverse my prejudices, but the idea of NOT dying in the cold is repugnant to me. I've been to North Dakota too often methinks. Labels: culture, future, rural life
Is the cork screwed?...
When I was in Portugal with the US Grains Council in 1998 (?), we visited a corn farmer there who revealed his real cash bonanza crop was cork. It seems champagne makers were desperate for stoppers for all those bottles of bubbly for the Y2K celebration. Years have passed and tastes and budgets have changed. Suddenly the idea of (gasp!) screw-top wines bottles is gaining acceptance. Camp and bad French aside, the lighthearted marketing video articulates a watershed moment in the global wine industry: after hundreds of years of tradition, more and more winemakers are turning away from cork closures — and oenophiles are finally getting used to the idea. Bonny Doon, a boutique winery south of San Francisco, had used Portuguese cork for 19 years, but was losing 0.5% to 2% of its wine to "taint" — the unmistakably moldy or musty smell and taste of a contaminated wine, caused by a compound called TCA, which is sometimes found in cork. So, the winery decided to make a change in 2002. "It's not a lot, but it's enough," says Burke Owens, Bonny Doon's marketing director, of the switch to screwcaps. As the sommelier puts it: "The days of the cork are numbered." [More] That would be my fault. Yup. Your loyal correspondent has stooped to E-Z open grape juice. My favorite is a piquant little sauvignon blanc from Middle Earth called Zeal. They carry it at Sam's for about - gosh, I don't really know, but it has to be below $12 because I never buy anything over that. Anyhoo, it has a screwtop, and this engineer is on board with the trend. We should have done this years ago. But in the face of the obvious efficiencies (one less feature on your Swiss army knife), efforts to make cork harvesting look more "earth-friendly" are afoot. Big whoop. I just like the juice and the ease of getting to it. Sunday, August 26, 2007
Limited shelf life...
Just when you think high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) is out of the woods... High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has been singled out as having special properties that make Americans fatter than sugar and other energy sources with identical calorie contents. But an analysis by the University of Maryland Center for Food, Nutrition, and Agriculture Policy (CFNAP), now appearing online in Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, says there isn't enough research to conclude that high fructose corn syrup contributes to weight gain any more than any other energy source, including sugar and fructose. [More]something like this pops up. Sodas sweetened with high fructose corn syrup contain high levels of a potentially dangerous compound often found in the blood of diabetics, a new study concludes. This ongoing medical witchhunt could eventually stumble onto a witch, but for the time being let's just juxtapose this debate with another: Bottled water sales in the U.S. have skyrocketed in recent years, and with it consumers aren't making a concerted effort to recycle, adding more plastic to the nation's garbage dumps.Sometimes you just get a feeling that that a certain "lameness" or un-fashionability has seeped into a product or even an idea - that it is soo over, ya know. I'm getting that feeling on both these. Labels: culture, environment, food
I think the odds are rising...
If President Bush follows through on his tough line on health insurance for children, it leaves him less room to accommodate a farm bill he doesn't like and is strangely funded, I think. Mr. Bush comes to this fight with an understanding of how Schip has played out in the states, which is why his administration recently instituted reforms to the program that aim to restrict eligibility to those it was originally intended to serve -- the truly needy -- and not provide an incentive for middle class parents to drop their private health insurance. Moreover, he has threatened to veto federal legislation that would allow states to expand their Schip programs. I mean, think about a"legacy" of scrimping on kids and porking it out to farmers - which is how political opponents will certainly frame it. And I still think his pattern of rewarding loyalty will help him back up Sec. Johanns - who has carried the White House message faithfully - with a farm bill veto unless it contains significant reform. Labels: farm bill, farm program, policy
Must-read stuff...
Sterling Liddell, the economist (actually an econometrician) I referred to in my post this week has made his presentation - Where do we go from here? - available on the Iowa Farm Bureau website. (Click on the market Advantage 2007 box.) While PowerPoint presentations lose some of their impact when simply read, this one at least uses complete thoughts instead of cryptic clues I favor to keep people from reading ahead during a speech, so you can extract much of his logic. Recommended reading! [Update: another link for the presentation is here]
OK, you win...
I thought I had seen some crop damage from yahoos in a field, but this Dutch field may be the winner. ![]() A driver who was high on cocaine destroyed an entire cornfield in an attempt to escape from the police. Four police cars were destroyed before the 35-year-old crashed into a ditch and was arrested, near the village of Dussen in the south of the Netherlands. [Bear in mind, in Europe "corn" means the main local grain crop (looks like barley or wheat here). Maize is the their designation for corn]
The dwindling power of the press...
Current farm policy and especially the non-existent reform efforts by Congress have been savaged by all sides of the mainstream media - not to mention several creeks. A typical example: It goes against the grain for farm subsidies to be handed out to the rich. But that's precisely what the House version of the next farm bill does -- it continues big handouts to wealthy farmers and landowners. It's going to be up to the Senate to get it right when Congress resumes next month.
There is no change in the big ticket item in this farm bill cycle: $26 billion in direct payments, a leftover from "freedom to farm" payment contracts begun in 1996 that will be made, regardless of crop prices, over the next 5 years. Chairman Harkin has repeatedly criticized direct payments as "hard to justify" when crop prices are high, as they are now, and farmers will be making good money (in some cases record money) in the marketplace. Regardless of your position the sheer immobility of farm policy would seem to demonstrate some powerful lessons:
[Egad - another runaway metaphor!] Labels: farm bill, farm program, media
A sad commonality...
I have friends in Denmark, and have visited several Danish farms. The farmers there have always impressed me with their skills and professionalism, as well as being warm and hospitable. I was somewhat surprised to see they struggle with the same safety issues as the US, although they apparently had one very bad year recently. Tragic accidents on the farm were all too common last year, claiming the lives of 19 people, according to statistics from the Danish Agricultural Advisory Service and the Agricultural Working Conditions Board. One of the responses listed by the farm employees union to the report was stricter licensing for farm machinery operators. This strikes me as a good idea. Check "Perspective" in Top Producer magazine for more soon. Labels: rural life, safety Saturday, August 25, 2007
I think I hear the school bus honking...
If September is near, thoughts are turning to school and, as helpful as I find the college rankings at US News and World Report, this one might be more useful to most of us. From Radar magazine, the Ten Worst Colleges in the US: To be fair, we excluded community colleges, technical schools, and the kind of places that advertise in subway cars, limiting our search to accredited four-year institutions with brick-and-mortar campuses. We started by gathering statistics on academic offerings, admissions, and student life from a diverse array of sources, including Princeton Review, U.S. News, and the U.S. Department of Education. Then we factored in criteria like low SAT scores, incompetent professors, rock-bottom admissions standards, unbridled alcohol and drug consumption, rampant criminal activity, and dubious alumni. To complete the picture, we added reviews from online outlets like Students Review, Campus Dirt, and College Prowler. Finally, we tallied up the numbers in a variety of categories, ranging from worst Ivy to worst party school, and of course, the very worst college in the country. (Hint: The Moonies are involved.) Below, the nine colleges that made our dishonor roll. [More of a great read] (Hint - not good news for Spartans) Friday, August 24, 2007
I think I've been phished...
If this e-mail I got this morning is legit - which I am convinced it is not - the IRS is out of its bureaucratic mind. After the last annual calculations of your fiscal activity we have determined that you are eligible to receive a tax refund of $268.32. Please submit the tax refund request and allow us 6-9 days in order to process it. Further note: the sender address is service@irs.gov This is a pretty good try by current scam standards. As phishing schemes become more sophisticated I take great comfort in knowing the ultimate defense of my wealth lays in two barriers:
Thursday, August 23, 2007
How "McGyver" is this?...
Turn A PENCIL Into A LIGHT ! - video powered by Metacafe Amaze your friends with your resourcefulness! Make an emergency light bulb! [via RandomGoodStuff]
For the guys in Iowa...
When I spoke this week to folks in IA, I promised to post some links to sources I mentioned. This is one for finding out your life expectancy. Labels: blog
The web of finance...
Although Cargill has long been an advocate for their large food and feed customers (remember, grain growers - you are their supplier, not their customer) by moving slowly on ethanol expansion, their recent call to build an "escape clause" into any RFS increase places them on a collision course politically with most corn growers. The US is reviewing its federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which calls for the production of 7.5bn gallons a year of alternative fuels by 2012. This is expected to be reached well ahead of target, and the Bush administration has called for a benchmark of 35bn gallons by 2017, about half of it from ethanol.But it gets more complicated than that simple premise, although it is certainly a concern. Cargill is in many businesses other than grain, and one of them is "asset management" Or more crudely put, owning stuff. That part of their business, like most similar enterprises has seen recent financial turmoil dim the prospects for the future, especially should assets suddenly be devalued by deflating the real estate bubble. Guess which other branches of Cargill would have to pick up the slack? Cargill said three of its five divisions delivered record results, and played down the importance of its asset management business, which has been the largest contributor to earnings in recent years.I have no criticism of the Cargill position. Their defense of animal agriculture should certainly commend them to many farmers. But even this laudable effort can get entangled with cross purposes of other divisions. It's one reason you seen the conglomeration strategy come and go in modern business management. Diversification contributes to a loss of clear purpose even while reducing risks. The larger question though is the fallout from mandates. Mandate supporters think they can force the market to obey, but our species is far too devious to put up with those kinds of coercion forever. Ethanol needs to reduce its reliance on this barely legalized extortion methodology as soon as possible. And the best way IMHO, is a carbon tax. Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Let's see now...
Canadians, a "roadboat", a failed transcontinental crossing... ![]() Nope, nope... nothin' funny there.. Labels: fun
When credit heads south...
I'm not totally convinced the financial world is ending, but there is a very real problem of foreclosing on millions of homeowners all across the nation. The argument can be validly made that these borrowers should never have gotten mortgages in the first place, but after you make that rather sanctimonious judgment answer this: How many of the daisy-chained consequences of this unwinding are you personally willing to bear? While Mr Paulson sought to reassure Americans yesterday that the economy was strong, Mr Dodd warned that up to 3 million people were in danger of losing their homes in the fallout from the sub-prime mortgage crisis. "I would urge every possible step to be taken to keep people in their homes," said Senator Dodd, describing the likely rate of foreclosures as "deeply, deeply troubling". This "ripple" could be as understated as Mr. Bernanke's assurances of "containment" were overstated. Already-battered U.S. auto sales could be the next victim of the problems with mortgages, declining home and stock prices as potential car buyers delay purchases due to uncertainty. We all enjoyed the booming economy propelled by home-equity-loan-fueled consumer spending. The government enjoyed record tax receipts, retailers rejoiced, and employment surged. So if you think this is all going to stop in poorer neighborhoods with strapped borrowers, you may be in for a surprise. Apparently Ben was.
Straight from the Crop Tour...
Some frontline video from the Eastern leg of the John Deere ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour. Note Roger Bernard's discovery of aphids about 20 miles from my farm. Somebody hold me... [Thanks, Eric!] Labels: blog, Farm Journal
The stealth wealth...
Our privileged lives help us to overlook the most important source of wealth for our nation: intangible wealth. The World Bank study defines natural capital as the sum of cropland, pastureland, forested areas, protected areas, and nonrenewable resources (including oil, natural gas, coal, and minerals). Produced capital is what most of us think of when we think of capital: machinery, equipment, structures (including infrastructure), and urban land. But that still left a lot of wealth to explain. "As soon as you say the issue is the wealth of nations and how wealth is managed, then you realize that if you were only talking about a portfolio of natural assets, if you were only talking about produced capital and natural assets, you're missing a big chunk of the story," Hamilton explains.[Whole 208-page report here] This staggering advantage we take for granted becomes most apparent when it is missing. Listen to Americans talk about foreign countries - especially under-developed ones - and the idea of social institutions that don't work hits home first. As farmers we are very late embracing the idea of wealth that cannot be hauled in a truck. Buy as Hernando de Soto pointed out in "The Mystery of Capital" without the basic ability to prove something is yours, hidden capital sits unused. Such everyday fixtures of order have real value, and the World Bank helps to point out why the US has much to be grateful to our forebears for and much to protect.
The Switchgrass Flim-Flam, Part XVIII...
I'm speaking today and tomorrow in Iowa for the IA Bureau and I followed Sterling Liddell who gave a long range outlook. Super presentation. He has all the flamboyant showmanship of an economist, but still strangely likable. Anyhoo, somewhere toward the end of his talk someone asked about switchgrass. He was far more discrete in his skepticism of this "energy solution" than I have been, but he mentioned an issue I had not heard of before: Rats. I can't google up anything tonight, so I will cross-examine him tomorrow but coupled with this story, it struck me as interesting. Now comes another woe, this one as icky as a biblical plague: millions of mouse-like rodents called voles feasting on everything from beets to potatoes in an infestation that has prompted a desperate, scorched-earth policy in one of Spain's agricultural heartlands. I'll keep looking - but is it me or is getting a little "Nostradamus" around here? What's next - a plague of frogs? Labels: ethanol Monday, August 20, 2007
Warning - loose money!...
The queasiness on Wall Street could surprise LaSalle Street. Commodity investors may never have a better time to buy corn, cotton and sugar instead of oil and copper.A price decline in copper would be a welcome relief for many as "copper security" is becoming a major industrial problem. The culprits were not the typical ones — heat waves, fires or drought — but thieves, who have been stripping the copper wires out of irrigation systems throughout California. The rampant thefts have left farmers without functioning water pumps for days and weeks at a time, creating financial loss and occasional crop devastation in a region still smarting from a spectacular freeze last winter. We have wealth splashing around the globe like beer in a plastic cup. Somebody should drink it just to prevent spillage. (Sometimes my metaphors get a little surreal.)
Yet another reason to hate eggplant...
And zucchini. And squash. And...[More] Maybe it's just a cheese-nightmare. [via Presurfer] Sunday, August 19, 2007
Energy Independence: Update...
As the pushback from ethanol mandates becomes fiercer, the winning argument seems to be wrapping the biofuel industry in the Stars 'n Stripes under the guise freeing us from dependence on "furrin orl". This seemed unlikely last year, and even more so today. While this is all fashionably xenophobic, not only is there no evidence to suggest we are decreasing our oil imports from bad people by making more ethanol, it would seem we are doing THE OPPOSITE.
Please compare the last column with the third. If we lump Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, and Venezuela (I forget - is Russia on our side now or not?) together as "nasty oil" then we are importing 3.458 million BPD now compared to 3.400 million BPD during the same period last year. Other interesting notes:
Other observers with more intellectual heft than this minor-leaguer are drawing similar conclusions. This is nonsense. As my colleague Robert J. Samuelson demonstrated this week, biofuels will barely keep up with the increase in gasoline demand over time. They are a huge government bet with goals and mandates and subsidies that will not cure our oil dependence or even make a significant dent in it. The numbers may not matter in the short run. Ethanol seems like it should reduce our need for imports, so if we keep saying it long and loud enough, maybe a miracle will happen. But every year as we re-examine our oil import numbers, the illusion will be harder to support. For producers, the key to maintaining support for mandates could be to install a large and powerful political base in as many states as possible and to keep the costs hidden. That's pretty much a mirror of our farm program political strategy. And it is hard to argue with the success of that political effort. Hence my cash rent bids. Labels: ethanol
This would explain Packer fans...
Having bad dreams? You know, the kind where you realize you are standing naked on the floor of the Board of Trade and suddenly your second-grade teacher shows up with a hippopotamus... No? Well, never mind... Part of your problems could be eating cheese. The chemistry of dreams goes back to before biochemistry began.But wait - it gets even better. You can choose your dreams. 85% of females who ate Stilton had some of the most unusual dreams of the whole study. 65% of people eating Cheddar dreamt about celebrities, over 65% of participants eating Red Leicester revisited their schooldays, all female participants who ate British Brie had nice relaxing dreams whereas male participants had cryptic dreams, two thirds of all those who ate Lancashire had a dream about work and over half of Cheshire eaters had a dreamless sleep. This is all well and good for the Brits. But my question is will a Double Cheese Whopper make me dream about Carol Drinkwater and me surfing off Baja California? It's all about science, ya know. What??... Saturday, August 18, 2007
A brief, but helpful explanation...
I "Google" instead of actually thinking anymore, it seems. Here is how it works. [via 3 Quarks] [Update: This link requires serious RAM. My bad. I forget I scrimp on cars and splurge on computers.] Labels: computer, Internet, technology Friday, August 17, 2007
And this was the "adult swim" period...
A day at the pool with a few close Japanese friends. The guy in the blue trunks on the left is my nephew's old roommate. Boy, would that be a relief after those crowded Japanese trains! Labels: fun Thursday, August 16, 2007
Of course you knew that...
We amateur economists - which comprises about everyone - often use phrases that we think we understand when we don't have a clue. F'rinstance, we have heard much serious blather about the Fed injecting money into the economy or market. But how 'zactly does that happen? With huge short-term loans. The Fed auctions off these loans to the banks willing to pay the highest interest rates. The borrowers use their government bonds as collateral, buying them back from the government after a period of at most two weeks. In the meantime, the banks have more cash to lend—to each other, to corporations, to anyone who's buying a house or car. [More of a short, helpful explanation]Another phrase that most take way too literally is "printing more money". Think about it. To put actual dollar bills into the supply, how would you distribute them? Just hand some our to friends or people standing by the mint? Again, this shorthand phrase is too often taken literally. Indeed, by confusing currency with money, whopping economic misjudgments are made. In the U.S., as of December, 2006, M1 was about $1.37 trillion and M2 was about $7.02 trillion. If you split all of the money equally per person in the United States, each person would end up with roughly $4,550 ($1,370,000M/301M) using M1 or $23,320 ($7,020,000M/301M) using M2. The amount of actual physical cash, M0, was $80 billion in 2006, roughly one third of the $261 billion in cash and cash equivalents on deposit at Citigroup as of the end of that year and roughly $266 per person in the US. [More]Just a little awareness raising in support of a hassled Federal Reserve System. Labels: economics
"The universe...
is not only stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine." (Borrowed loosely from Sir Arthur Eddington) ![]() There's a strange moon whizzing around Saturn that's shaped, oddly, like a walnut.The data pouring into our knowledge base from space missions will slowly change our view of everything, I believe - but nothing more so than our place in the universe.
Sign me up...
Although I had essentially written off broadband-over-power-lines (BPL) technology, it will become reality in Dallas next year. DirecTV said it would bundle broadband-over-powerline high-speed Internet and VoIP with its digital TV services to about 1.8 million homes in the Dallas-Forth Worth, Texas region by early 2008. Benefits of broadband-over-powerline include faster upload and download speeds compared to many cable and DSL broadband services: up to 10Mb versus 8Mb, according to Current. The broadband service is symmetric, which means upload speeds are as fast as download speeds. Moreover, broadband-over-powerline works via a go-anywhere, installation-free modem that's about the size of a regular power adapter and plugs into any electrical outlet. It is Ethernet and WiFi enabled, which means it can fill in wireless coverage gaps created by cable or DSL, said Current VP of corporate development and strategy Brendan Herron. [More] Note the speeds mentioned above. Zoweee!! Also consider:
[Updated: link is now activated] Labels: Internet, rural life, technology Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Connect these dots...
Item #1: John Deere announces handsome profits. Net income climbed to $537.2 million, or $2.37 a share, from $436 million, or $1.85, a year earlier, topping analysts' estimates. Sales grew 5.9 percent to $6.63 billion, the Moline, Illinois-based company said today in a statement. Item#2: Ag employers warn of labor shortages crippling entire sectors: The agricultural sector, which depends heavily on migrant labor, may be the hardest hit. "It's going to be crazy," says Eli Kantor, a Beverly Hills-based immigration attorney: "There will be major disruptions to the economy of Southern California, [which is] heavily dependent on immigrant labor. There will be crops rotting in the fields." Kantor says he expects some of his clients to lay staff off, while he expects others will "take their chances." [More] What do these developments suggest to me? American agriculture may be gravitating to growing crops that lend themselves to machine harvesting, while many fruits and vegetables will be increasingly imported. Just in time for country-of-origin-labeling. This oughta be train-wreck fascinating. Labels: economics, food, immigration Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Feel free to flame me...
But if I find something this funny with HRC or Speaker Pelosi, I will post it as well. Another reason to not trust your eyes on YouTube. This is really well edited. [via Presurfer] Labels: fun
Sure you're covered?...
Unlike subsidized crop insurance which doesn't have to make actuarial sense since the government throws in $4-5B per year, the home insurance industry has to turn a buck. And guess how they are doing it? Tunnell joined thousands of people in the U.S. who already knew a secret about the insurance industry: When there's a disaster, the companies homeowners count on to protect them from financial ruin routinely pay less than what policies promise. I think computer technology is enabling insurers to find ingenious ways to maximize profits. The "good hands" may catch you, but maybe not as gently as before the pressure to generate returns took over. The entire insurance industry is finding clever ways to pass risk off to somebody else. But perversely, it also means standing the risk by yourself - self-insuring - has a huge return. For instance, how many of the crop-revenue policies that looked like a slam dunk last spring will pay off this year? At $40+ per acre that is a significant profit increase if you did not buy in. Anyhoo, I 'm asking my agent about how payouts are going for my company. Labels: insurance Monday, August 13, 2007
The new farming frontier...
The organic advantage - how big is it? Or does it exist at all? In this week's Time, the inescapable Dr. Sanjay Gupta offers some remarkably reasonable comments about eating organic. The evidence of nutritional advantages is almost as thin. Never mind the idea that organically grown foods fairly burst with vitamins that modern farming techniques drain out of crops. To date most studies have either shown no difference between organic and conventional produce or found very small pluses in the organic column, such as slightly higher levels of vitamin C or other antioxidants. [More]Such advice is now common, as scientists and science reporters adhere to the scientific method that has carried us to the level of abundance we now enjoy. Nonetheless, the organic sector is growing vigorously thanks to consumer preferences and I for one welcome it. Organic production is part of a bustling agrarian sector of agriculture that delivers a process (free-range, organic, grass-fed, cage-free, etc.) with a product (meat, eggs, etc.) is a legitimate market response to consumer demand. Farmers have no inherent right to say what the eating public should have to buy. The agrarian sector, like all emerging industries does have some regrettable baggage. Extravagant claims of non-existent nutritional advantages, for example: On the question of grain- versus grass-fed cows, some suggest that pasture-fed cows may produce milk that contains more conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a special type of fat that may protect against cancer and other health problems. But Michael Pariza, professor of food microbiology and toxicology at the University of Wisconsin, and a leading expert on CLA in dairy products, says grass feeding by itself does not assure increased CLA. He and Bauman both note that cows fed mixed grains with soybeans or other additions can produce milk that has higher CLA levels than milk from grass-fed cows. This may lead you to spend less on milk and more on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, fish and other healthful foods. [More]Agrarians have also found a way to tap into the strong animal welfare feelings that I think are overlapping our enormous pet industry. One of the latest battles is for cage-free eggs. The eggs, from chickens raised in large, open barns instead of stacks of small wire cages, have become the latest addition to menus at universities, hotel chains like Omni and cafeterias at companies like Google. The Whole Foods supermarket chain sells nothing else, and even Burger King is getting in on the trend.Industrial producers like myself have been trying to write off these developments as consumer fads, but I think they are woven into the cultural shifts made possible by abundance and the differences in values of Boomers and succeeding generations. We also have struggles with a larger issue: agrarians are boldly snatching our outdated "family farm" image which we flog in the halls of Congress to attract subsidy support. The growing divide between agrarian and industrial producers no longer alarms me. In fact, heated opposition to the agrarian movement is the last thing industrial ag should be spending time on. The market is sorting this one out as we speak. Besides, the agrarian sector is an appropriate answer for the handful of products that lend themselves to selling the process - seasonal fruit/vegetables, large-purchase (halves, for example) meats, etc. It is also a good answer for ag topography that does not lend itself to large scale production, such as rolling/wooded terrain or near urban areas. We have seen new business models emerge over the last decade for dozens of industries including travel, advertising, and publishing—all relying heavily on technology-based improvements in productivity and changes in distribution associated with the Internet.This new business model also is labor intensive while industrial ag is shedding jobs via technology. For young people aspiring to a rural lifestyle the agrarian model seems more realistic than hoping to rent 1100 acres someday away from guys like me. And as for the concern that agrarian producers could hijack our farm payments - I think industrial ag has put that idea to rest. When agrarians can't get Reps. Pelosi or Sen. Feinstein to support them, it indicates they got nothin'. The scary part is agrarians may learn to succeed despite government, not because of it. Now those will be competitors! Sunday, August 12, 2007
The way of things...
I have seen some curiously disingenuous justifications for the barrage of input cost increases now being aimed at producers - especially corn farmers. I recently received an impressively glossy and doubtless expensive sales packet from Beck's Seed outlining how research costs, increased demand, new technology, yadda yadda were making price increases "necessary". The implication was clear - we just have to raise prices. Unsurprisingly, the fertilizer industry is singing from the same public relations hymnal. High prices of natural gas have curtailed ammonia production, reducing the supply and increasing the cost of nitrogen fertilizer. The Caribbean is a potential source for increased imports, but with increasing dependency on imported nitrogen comes a chance for a volatile supply and a volatile price. [More]While I agree there is a relationship to supplier input costs (research, natural gas) and farm input (seed, fertilizer) prices, it is minor compared to pricing power. Input prices are going up because suppliers can raise prices and increase their profits secure in the knowledge that farmers can afford to and will pay higher prices, and hence demand will not drop. The pricing power also is strengthened by virtual monopolies or at least oligopolies in these industries. I do not mean to imply gouging or unfair practices, just a sense of embarrassment that our suppliers think we will swallow these transparently misleading excuses when the same companies are reassuring investors how wide their margins are.
I mean, how dumb do they think we are? Input prices will skyrocket up until a) competitive pressure forces companies to shrink margins to compete for market share (watch the Monsanto/Syngenta/Pioneer strategies in 2008 and beyond) or b) corn becomes less profitable than soybeans/wheat/cotton/retirement. It is easy to get your BVD's in a bind when you have little leverage in the market, but farmers need to remember this is exactly the mindset - price as high as the market will bear - we have for our own marketing plans. Just because you know your production costs doesn't mean that is where you sell - you shoot for as much profit as possible.The doubled gross margins "out-of-the-field" that I am seeing today will undoubtedly be invested first in inputs (variable costs) and residually in land (rent/purchase). All the players know this and with few choices (something poultry growers are loudly pointing out) customers pay until they can't. Better order seed and NH3 today. And hold for $4.50. Labels: economics, production Saturday, August 11, 2007
Maybe it's because they live their lives upside down...
Some wonderfully odd photos from New Zealand. ![]() Not sure that would work too well here. However, their road crews look just as efficient as ours![More] [via Neatorama] Labels: fun
The walls are falling and the pace is quickening...
It looks like the firewall on the New York Times could drop as well as the Wall Street Journal. Citing anonymous sources, the New York Post has reported that rival Manhattan paper The New York Times is planning to do away with TimesSelect, the subscription-only content on its NYTimes.com Web site. According to the article by Holly M. Sanders, the main obstacle at the moment is reconfiguring the site's software. [More]This is the power of the Internet, and millions of tiny little blogs like this made it happen. When we link to articles we drive traffic to newspaper websites and offer them at least the hope of selling advertising they are NOT selling in print additions. Now explain to me how DTNag.com is going to pull off subscription-based blogs in our tiny sector when the NYT can't sell Pulitzer-winning columnists. Even more curious, the more people use the Internet, the less they trust MSM (mainstream media), both print and broadcast. The internet news audience – roughly a quarter of all Americans – tends to be younger and better educated than the public as a whole. People who rely on the internet as their main news source express relatively unfavorable opinions of mainstream news sources and are among the most critical of press performance. As many as 38% of those who rely mostly on the internet for news say they have an unfavorable opinion of cable news networks such as CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC, compared with 25% of the public overall, and just 17% of television news viewers. [More] To my surprise, this distrust if fueled largely by the right, not the left, and perhaps has its roots in the often caustic output of staunchly right-wing blogs and websites. And speaking of bloggers, check out how the first NYTimes blog column by Freakonomics author Steven Levitt was a doozy: Hearing about these rules got me thinking about what I would do to maximize terror if I were a terrorist with limited resources. I’d start by thinking about what really inspires fear. One thing that scares people is the thought that they could be a victim of an attack. With that in mind, I’d want to do something that everybody thinks might be directed at them, even if the individual probability of harm is very low. Humans tend to overestimate small probabilities, so the fear generated by an act of terrorism is greatly disproportionate to the actual risk. [More]Notice the hundreds of comments - many of them outraged, in agreement, or (like me) just astonished by somebody actually saying out loud stuff we had been thinking privately. His defense of the first article is here (also with hundreds of comments) and contains this rational passage: One view is the following: the main reason we aren’t currently being decimated by terrorists is that the government’s anti-terror efforts have been successful.It is hard not to see this type of interaction between media and readers and fail to reach some implications for the future. For example, it is now clear to me we are inventing the dominant communication channels of the future. And judging by what we're planning at FJ Media - you ain't seen nothing yet. Friday, August 10, 2007
The ticket should go to the reporter...
In a totally inappropriate display of unnecessary puns, reporter Kevin Pang shames himself while covering a perfectly straightforward law and order (hold the onions) issue: ![]() About 15 minutes later, as curious passersby snapped pictures with their camera phones, the driver and passenger of the vehicle returned before tow trucks could arrive. "The situation was resolved without the use of ketchup, which in Chicago is a big thing," Smith said. The entourage got a grilling from the officer. "You can't just park here," the officer said. One of the passengers, who declined to be identified, said they were visiting a Wienermobile alumnus who worked nearby, but were unaware that one could not park a giant sausage in the middle of the city's busiest thoroughfare. Sydney Lindner, a spokeswoman for Kraft Foods, said the Wienermobile is on a nationwide tour promoting a contest to sing the Oscar Mayer jingle in an upcoming commercial. She said "regardless of the reason" the driver had for parking there, the company neither condones nor relishes such actions. [More - parental discretion advised]And they wonder why newspapers are in trouble. Don't believe me? Isn't Darth Murdoch is going to offer the WSJ online for free? (My prediction, too)
How to ruin a good day...
Got this message from my friend Steve. This afternoon I spoke with Illinois Natural History Survey Scientist and Aphid Expert, David Voetglin. He told me that there has been a very sharp increase in the abundance of aphids in suction traps placed in east-central Illinois (populations have been high in N. Illinois for some time and the populations have been moving south). He also reported that he was in an Iroquois County field on Monday that had over threshold (threshold is 250 per plant with 80% or more of plants infested) numbers of soybean aphid on every plant. He mentioned the oft-stated wisdom that the hot weather is supposed to slow the aphid reproduction down does not appear to be holding now, it has been hot and the suction trap numbers keep going up so he doesn't know what to expect.I had just visited with a neighbor who was looking at his soybeans and we decided it was too hot for an aphid explosion. Wrong. Labels: production
The Joystick Revolution...
We just had a story this weekend on a tractor designed by Purdue students using joystick steering. To show you how in tune USFR is with the Trends of the Future, witness this: ![]() The motorized pool lounger. Admit it - you can't live without one now. (Pool not included) [via Neatorama] Labels: fun Thursday, August 09, 2007
Internet promises coming true...
One of the much-ballyhooed forecasts for our on-line future was access to all the libraries and books in the Known Universe. We may be making some progress in that direction. Looky here: ![]() It also published a series called Prairie Farmer's Reliable Directory of Farmers and Breeders including this one for Champaign County from 1917. We'll be digitizing many of these directories for counties all over Illinois from the collection of the Illinois Historical Survey and Lincoln Room. These are great genealogy resources as they provide a complete listing of all members of a farmer's family and the exact location of their farm. [More][Note: click on pages to turn after selecting "Flip Book" - it wasn't immediately obvious to me.] Of course, it had to be Champaign County first. I suppose every state has its favorite son. Still, it's way cool and only a taste of what's coming. [via MeFi]
Let's see how tough works...
The failure of the immigration reform effort has snowballed into a truly vigorous enforcement alternative. Employers especially will be struggling with much stricter record-keeping and compliance issues. Critics of the proposal -- ranging from farmers to restaurant owners to immigrant advocates -- predict the tougher approach will lead to massive layoffs of both legal and illegal workers, potentially crippling some industries that rely heavily on that low-paid workforce.The press is just starting to cover these developments, and quite frankly I have no idea how successful these efforts will be. I do know readers and viewers get really worked up about immigration and like the presidential candidates, seem to feel arguing for stern policing as the easiest answer. Senator John McCain, trying to keep his presidential hopes aloft by jettisoning his courage and good sense, has leapt to the enforcement barricades, joining Senators Jon Kyl and Lindsey Graham in sponsoring a bill that is essentially a Minuteman’s to-do list of fence-building and punishments. He has shamefully repudiated his commitment to giving illegal immigrants a way to get right with the country. Senator Arlen Specter, meanwhile, wrote an op-ed article in The Washington Post titled “A Less Ambitious Approach to Immigration,” in which he endorsed the creation of a permanent noncitizen immigrant underclass, saying it is the best we can hope for until “a more hospitable America” emerges. [More]But as I argued about RW corn refuges in the latest issue of Top Producer, America doesn't work because we're really good at apprehending bad guys. America works because the overwhelming majority of citizens choose to obey the law because they find the rules reasonable and no big sacrifice to comply with. But more than the effectiveness is the likelihood we shall find out something similar to what we have discovered to our despair in Iraq: we can't muscle the world or even our own country to meet arbitrary standards of conduct just because a handful of people in Washington or some state capital say so. This delusion of enforcement ability flies in the face of power flowing downward via better information and technology. Even the vituperative defense of English as our national language shows a lack of cultural confidence. Enforcement will not ensure its supremacy in the US - it is the unique communication superiority of English, especially in science, that makes it the language of choice around the world. Also the fact that English speakers control so much of the world's wealth. You don't need language cops to make that point. My point of view lost. I freely admit this and will do everything required of me to comply without carping (much). But I am also preparing for consequences as any prudent observer should. Some of the fallout may kneecap high-value agriculture and further cripple construction. But the larger effect will be to create, I believe, an even more subterranean underclass of workers for an economy that is barely able to supply labor now. We will also likely create some serious headaches for people who think they will not be touched by this issue. The consequences will be severe. Industries dependent on immigrant workers, like restaurants, construction and farms, may face labor shortages. Fired workers will be driven into the underground economy. Companies worried about being potentially liable for firings based on bad information may shy away from hiring even legal immigrants.Or maybe we'll choose to enjoy a recession instead. Or simply cede entire industries to off-shore. The pace of recent U.S. economic growth would have been impossible without immigration. Since 1990, immigrants have contributed to job growth in three main ways: They fill an increasing share of jobs overall, they take jobs in labor-scarce regions, and they fill the types of jobs native workers often shun. The foreign-born make up only 11.3 percent of the U.S. population and 14 percent of the labor force. But amazingly, the flow of foreign-born is so large that immigrants currently account for a larger share of labor force growth than natives [More]One outcome seems very probable to me. Our country takes one more step toward an admittedly distant target of a police state. (Congress just hastened this process) This effort will require more police-types, jails, attorneys, etc. It will clog our criminal justice system and foster an enormous and hideously expensive and permanently entrenched bureaucracy. It will corrode trust and further contempt for the rule of law by placing too many people in the wretched position of keeping their business afloat and helping wretchedly poor employees they have befriended. And in the end, I believe we will gain little or nothing. Our economy is far too wealthy and amoral not to invest heavily in enforcement avoidance efforts, and those despised illegal immigrants are far more tenacious than many suspect. Many of us have simply forgotten how incredibly resourceful truly desperate humans can be. In the worst case, we could set back economic growth and fuel serious inflation for years. (And don't even ponder about how much oil we get from Mexico and how that future problem will complicate this issue.) Nor will we un-diversify our population and preserve our Anglo-European majority. That battle has not only been lost, it is slipping away faster than ever thanks to simple demographics. It strikes me as breathtakingly inefficient. But then, I lost the debate. Labels: immigration Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Meet your competition...
Another Chinese entrant for the "I Built the Best" competition: Note the attitude of the wife. Typical, typical... [via BoingBoing] Labels: fun
The history inside us...
The widespread technology allowing researchers to use mitochondrial DNA to follow genetic groups through history is rewriting some historical theories. The Black Death continues to cast a shadow across England. Although the modern English population is more cosmopolitan than ever, the plagues known as the Black Death killed so many people in the Middle Ages that, to this day, genetic diversity is lower in England than it was in the 11th century, according to a new analysis. Rus Hoelzel at the University of Durham, UK and his colleagues looked at the mitochondrial DNA from human remains at 4th and 11th century archaeological sites in England, and compared them to samples from the modern population stored on DNA databases such as GenBank. They found there was more variation in the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences than in modern sequences. [More]I can imagine the hysteria in the halls of history departments as chemists in a lab overthrow their neat doctoral thesis with a computer readout. Historians delight in inventing neatly plausible stories about what happened long ago and far away based on fragmentary and often implied evidence. These wonderful conjectures are suddenly being tested with history written in our cells.
This could be a bad omen...
Perennially dour German farmers are bursting with enthusiasm and optimism. “The trend all over Europe shows returning confidence. Whilst this is also true in the UK, the recovery is not as marked as in Poland and France or as in Germany which comes out on top. From a low point in late 2005 and early 2006, German and Polish farmers have become much more confident. German farmers expect significantly higher prices for key products. Polish farmers have the confidence which springs from relatively recent entry into the EU”, says Dr. Jochen Köckler, Managing Director of the DLG Exhibitions Department.So what's up with our Teutonic colleagues? Several things I would guess. The outlook for economic growth in Europe is running at
Thank goodness the euro is too strong for me to afford to visit. Labels: international
Food vs. fuel vs. economics...
One of my favorite economists, Bruce Babcock, again sheds some dispassionate light on the food price/ethanol debate. In the case of farm programs, it is easy to demonstrate that feed grain and oilseed prices are largely unaffected by U.S. farm subsidies, particularly since 1996 when Congress removed USDA's authority to increase commodity prices through acreage set-asides and subsidized storage. It is also easy to demonstrate that the small share of the final consumer food dollar that goes to the farmer means that even a doubling of feed grain and oilseed prices from expanded biofuels production will lead to relatively modest increases in the prices of meat and dairy products. Food prices are largely determined by costs and profits after commodities leave the farm. [More]The recent clamor from corn growers that high corn prices don't really affect food prices clearly undermines justification for some forms of subsidies as consumer benefits. Subsidies are too rapidly folded into fixed costs to affect output levels, especially now we have a generation trained for decades in subsidy gaming. Coupled with the global demand surge, we may simply outgrow our farm programs.
Another reason land prices may not be out of line...
According to Mike Walsten at Landowner newsletter (subscription required) land prices show no signs of backing off. The highest-selling tract, totaling 165.44 acres, sold for $9,500 an acre and the lowest-selling tract, 62.31 acres, brought $4,950 an acre. That 62.31-acre-tract was only 70% tillable, says Dave Klein, vice president and managing broker, Soy Capital Ag Services, Bloomington, 309-665-0961, whose firm handled the sale. [More]The driving force, I believe is clearly ethanol. Even though its immediate impact is on corn prices, the competition for land to grow corn forces other commodities higher. Interestingly, this is occurring just when global demand is ramping up, fed by economic growth in the less developed countries of the world. For the first time, dairy farmers could threaten to sell their products elsewhere since the global dairy market is suddenly thirsty for German milk. And there's particular interest in powered whey. Prices for the yellowy stuff, which is the foundation for many packaged food products, have more than doubled within a year. Globalization has finally reached a sector that for a long time was organized regionally. While the dairy sector in Germany is still connected with the image of the quaint Bavarian farmer and his bell-wearing cows, in reality it's become an industry of multinational corporations, stock prices and commodities markets.Meanwhile, one dairy subsector is challenged by rising raw milk prices: organic. It seems consumers may be more price sensitive than originally thought, or that the organic buying public is smaller that forecast. Dean sells organic milk and soy products through its WhiteWave Foods division. The organic milk is specifically sold under its Horizon brand, a segment battling the industry-wide oversupply of raw organic milk. My goodness - supply and demand! Are they still teaching that stuff? If the EU takes this opportunity to even mildly reform its dairy quota system, it will add significant pressure to WTO calls for US reform as well. We are only beginning to measure the fallout from ethanol mandates. The results may surprise us.
In case you had wondered...
What would happen if the bucket hydraulics failed while zipping down the road. ![]() ![]() [Thanks, Jerry] Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Yo, Donald Trump...
There's a new sheriff in town! I'm starting to pay more attention to well-crafted combovers. [via Neatorama] Labels: fun
New book review...
Read another one. Blogger's note: something screwy happened with my Internet link yesterday and it slowed to a crawl. It could be the program I tried to download (Roxio Media Creator). When you use too much bandwidth on Hughesnet, you get throttled back for a while. Another irritant for rural broadband customers. Labels: blog Monday, August 06, 2007
Who are the good guys again?...
I have no investments in anything but land and cheap wines, but I do follow the drama that is the stock market. After Friday's plunge at the end of a bad week, I was startled to see the biggest day in 5 years on Wall Street. Wall Street's wild ride resumed Monday with the Dow industrials soaring 286 points, marking its biggest point gain in nearly 5 years, helped by financial sector strength and subsiding credit market fears.The unsung heroes may be - surprisingly - yesterday's villains: hedge funds. And so, far from causing financial fires, hedge funds often act as firefighters. They plunge into infernos because they understand financial risks better than others and are less likely to get burned by them.Two lessons for this farmer from this news. First, there is more money wandering around the world than I could imagine even after several adult beverages and 2) maybe hedge fund managers do deserve to be paid more than anyone in the universe. ..the top 25 hedge fund managers combined appear to have earned more than all 500 S&P 500 CEOs combined (both realized and estimated). [More]Tell me again why I pay attention to the Fed Chairman. Sunday, August 05, 2007
Governments get second chances...
Two separate incidents bear watching unfold this week.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown vowed to work "night and day" to avoid a repeat of a 2001 outbreak, when millions of dead animals were burned on pyres, swathes of the countryside were closed, rural tourism was badly hurt, and British meat was shut out of international markets.The news gets worse for the PM: the virus may have come from a nearby government laboratory. Last night, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said that the strain of foot and mouth disease found on a farm in southern England was identical to one used at a nearby laboratory. This raised the prospect of the outbreak being caused by a leak from one of the facilities most concerned with trying to defeat the disease. The only two laboratories licensed in this country to work with live foot and mouth disease virus are at Pirbright, Surrey, within three miles of the infected farm. And, The Independent on Sunday understands, there have been no movements of cattle at the infected farm since June. [More]Understandably, this development could churn up international beef markets. My guess is the perishingly remote risk of BSE in US beef will suddenly disappear as a worry as FMD becomes the Scare-of-the-Day. 2. The Minneapolis Bridge recovery effort. This is a possible catch-22 for the feds. While the commendable promise to deal swiftly with this tragedy is an effort to demonstrate government competence, a success here will throw the N.O. debacle into starker relief and point out some obvious (and likely unfair) reasons why they got Katrina wrong and Minneapolis right.
Just in time for Christmas...
Like choir directors all across this great land, I have been previewing and selecting new anthems for Christmas. In fact, I have just waded through about 130 recordings and am getting down to the final cut. So this wonderful Vegetable Solo fit right in with my current week's work. I always knew broccoli was good for something. Only 143 shopping day left! [via Presurfer]
Now wonder we love our work...
It has always puzzled me how farmers could - sometimes in the same breath - positively gush about how much they love farming and then moan about how hard it is. Turns out it is the dirt talking. Treatment of mice with a 'friendly' bacteria, normally found in the soil, altered their behavior in a way similar to that produced by antidepressant drugs, reports research published in the latest issue of Neuroscience.The other reason, of course for talking out of both sides of our mouth is nobody feels sorry or sends subsidies to happy people. We talk ourselves into misery because it has been pretty lucrative for us. Imagine the farm policy horror of a happy, confident farmer testifying before a Congressional committee. Oddly enough, I think most farmers would enjoy their work significantly more if they didn't have to hide feelings of success and fulfillment from others. Labels: policy, psychology Saturday, August 04, 2007
The Dawn of Promotional Video: The Egg...
For your consideration: a umm, unique marketing video for the Petaluma Egg Board in 1932. Still a few kinks to work out in the concept, maybe. What was the deal with the jumping jacks in the pan? [via BoingBoing] Labels: fun Friday, August 03, 2007
Not a thing of beauty...
As Jim Weisemeyer has been telling us, this is one ugly farm bill process. My perspective is skewed because I find little to love in the existing farm policy, but regardless, the political maneuvering has been byzantine. I'm sure all bills are to some degree, and hence my fondness for as few laws as possible. Here is an insight into how Speaker Pelosi managed to pass the House version. The more serious threat to the handiwork of Pelosi and farm state lawmakers lies elsewhere.Many in agriculture don't care how it happens as long as the final product arrives. But my take is all those lobbyists aren't there to make sure I get money - they are there because they will get money. Labels: farm bill
All submarines, all the time...
Keeping you all up to date in the often invisible world of submarining.
The vessel is an 8-foot replica of the 1776 submersible known as the Turtle, said Petty Officer Seth Johnson of the U.S. Coast Guard. It was unclear what the people were doing, but there was no indication of any connection to terrorism, he said.
The first mini-sub dived to a spot 2.65 miles below the surface and the second sub to a nearby location 2.67 miles below the surface, Russia's NTV television reported. The subs spent about nine hours underwater. Wait - doesn't this mean the US owns the moon?
The submarine is fitted with modular isolated deck structures, for example the submarine's command centre will be installed as one single unit resting on cushioned mounting points. The submarine's control suite is equipped with computer touch screens. The submarine's steering and diving control is via a four-button, two-axis joystick. [More] Remember, there are basically two types of naval vessels: submarines and targets. Labels: military
Silver Linings Dept...
It makes your vacation expensive but our weak dollar helps with other problems like off-shoring. The story demonstrates some of the weaknesses in Blinder's contention that an employment apocalypse approaches. On the one hand, pure price competition can't continue for long; rising demand for services in the primary destinations for offshoring companies has lead to rapid wage convergence. This has combined with dollar depreciation to erode the cost advantages available to firms moving jobs overseas. On the other hand, growth in the size and sophistication of back-office nations like India has begun to create economic opportunities for American companies and workers. America can't, after all, have a comparative disadvantage in everything. Looks like almost some kind of an "invisible hand" to me... Labels: economics, international, trade
Hot news from the WTO...hello?...anybody there?...
I know you have all been waiting breathlessly for the action-packed thrill-a-minute reports from the Doha-ha-ha Round of Eternal Bickering. But I actually think those paid-by-the-hour negotiators have budged slightly forward. One of the biggest stumbling blocks (besides us, of course) has been the unyielding position on ag subsidies by India and Brazil. To my surprise at least, Indian officials are using a figure for US reductions that is within reason compared to current US proposals. India can accept the recent WTO draft on agriculture as a basis for further talks in the Doha Round, but proposals on industrial goods were "fundamentally flawed and essentially biased", a senior government official said Thursday. India has been extremely protective of her ag sector, but perhaps growing pressure from 1) the exploding economic clout of Indian high tech and service industry and 2) concerns that trade gridlock could spill over into tougher immigration for Indian immigrants to America has pushed Indian politicos to more ag flexibility. Labels: international, trade Thursday, August 02, 2007
More good news for grumpy old men...
It seems like suddenly I know many people coping with prostate cancer. (By the way, have you ever noticed how softly people talk about prostate cancer?) One big reason is advanced detection techniques, but that in itself can be a mixed blessing. As many as two thirds of those diagnosed with prostate cancer struggle through the problems of incontinence and impotence unnecessarily - causing more than a few of us to think long and hard about how and whether to have treatment at all. Maybe important help is on the way. Scientists have found a new way to identify a particularly deadly form of prostate cancer in a breakthrough that could save tens of thousands of men from undergoing unnecessary surgery each year. I hope so. Too many of my friends have endured bravely through this experience, and likely a few them need not have. Labels: health Wednesday, August 01, 2007
The Genial Host...
We are having guests from FJ and Monsanto today. The farm tour, lunch, etc. Expect slow blogging. I'm looking forward to it. Jan has slightly different perspective. Labels: blog
Move over, let me do that...
Congress - without much supporting evidence of economic expertise - has decided it needs to mess with the Chinese economy. After all, it's barely growing at 12%. So we Americans should decide what their currency is worth. The administration unleashed its admonition as Paulson visited China once again, pursuing his favored course -- high-level talks with Chinese counterparts on a range of trade issues. Paulson has maintained that this Strategic Economic Dialogue remains the best channel for persuading China to allow its currency to float freely and to respect the norms of international trade.Danger here, methinks. China is already pursuing a vigorous foreign policy program in the Mideast to secure energy, they have a growing naval presence and just incidentally hold a mountain of US debt. We're not going to push those 1.3B folks around like Grenada. The leadership in China has a short fuse when it comes to outside interference. Like the administration, Congress seems to me to be headed for biting off far more than they can masticate. Labels: economics, international, trade
Maybe we'll get somewhere just by flailing...
In a effort to be seen like "reformers" - suddenly a good thing in farm policy - Sen. Tom Harkin has indicated many in the upper house will push for modifications in various aspects. The biggest idea is fiddling with CCP's: "I do want to move in that direction," said Harkin, an Iowa Democrat. He said the more he studied the revenue protection concept, the more value it held as a modification to the so-called counter-cyclical payments made when crop returns are below the targets set by Congress. [More]A nip here, a tuck there, and our farm policy could actually be a different beast altogether. My guess of a Death of a Thousand Cuts could be closer than I had thought. We could end up watching the Conference Committee from Heck in September or October. Labels: farm bill US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...
About MeJan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. ARCHIVES
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