AgWeb - Your Spot for Futures Trading, Commodities Info, Successful Farming Tips, Ag News & More

I'm glad to be here...

So, neighbors - here we are at the start of a new year and we're asking ourselves, "What is there to look forward to?"

Thank goodness I got here in time with more reasons to be optimistic than you can shake a martini at:

From Edge, The Third Culture :

The Edge Annual Question — 2007

WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT? WHY?

As an activity, as a state of mind, science is fundamentally optimistic. Science figures out how things work and thus can make them work better. Much of the news is either good news or news that can be made good, thanks to ever deepening knowledge and ever more efficient and powerful tools and techniques. Science, on its frontiers, poses more and ever better questions, ever better put.
What are you optimistic about? Why? Surprise us!

My favorites:

Stewart Brand

Geoffrey Carr

Malthus was wrong to observe that population increases geometrically while the resources available to support it increase arithmetically. It was an understandable mistake. It flies in the face of common sense that population growth will actually slow down in the face of better resources. But that is what happens, and it might yet save humanity from the fate predicted for it by the Club of Rome.

Chris Anderson

So for example, the publication last year of a carefully researched Human Security Report received little attention. Despite the fact that it had concluded that the numbers of armed conflicts in the world had fallen 40% in little over a decade. And that the number of fatalities per conflict had also fallen. Think about that. The entire news agenda for a decade, received as endless tales of wars, massacres and bombings, actually missed the key point. Things are getting better. If you believe Robert Wright and his NonZero hypothesis, this is part of a very long-term and admittedly volatile trend in which cooperation eventually trumps conflict. Percentage of males estimated to have died in violence in hunter gatherer societies? Approximately 30%. Percentage of males who died in violence in the 20th century complete with two world wars and a couple of nukes? Approximately 1%. Trends for violent deaths so far in the 21st century? Falling. Sharply.

David G. Myers

It's a challenge to persuade a nation to exchange its current hearing assistive technology (which requires locating, checking out, and wearing conspicuous headsets) for a technology that many more people would actually use. But the results of our west Michigan experiment, and another in 1000 California homes, supports my optimism. Doubling hearing aid functionality will greatly increase hearing aid acceptance and use.

With on-the-horizon technology, we can also foresee music buffs with wireless ear bud loudspeakers. When that day comes, having something in one's ear will become as mundane as glasses for the eyes, and millions of people with hearing loss will be enjoying fuller and more connected lives.

John Gottman

John Horgan

Susan Blackmore

That is the stage we have reached now on earth. The artificial systems we have built still depend on us, and would perish with us if we all died, but they are evolving far faster than we are, and are taking up the planet's resources in the process.

Some people still maintain the fantasy that we humans are in charge and can still control the memes we have let loose. Yet it must be increasingly obvious that we can't; that they are in the driving seat, not us. They are sucking up the planet's resources increasingly fast and, being selfish replicators, they have no foresight and don't care in the least what happens to us or the planet; they can't, they are just replicating information. So we are hovering at this second danger point right now.

Perhaps this critical point has been reached on countless planets and none pulled through—perhaps acquiring new replicators is so dangerous that memes (or their equivalents) always wipe out the original replicator that spawned them, explaining why we have not yet heard from any other intelligent beings out there. Or perhaps it is possible to for an intelligent species to work out what has happened, repair the damage and live in harmony with the creatures it unwittingly gave rise to.

I think it is, and I am optimistic that we will.

Jonathan Haidt

Diane Halpern

Allegiances now extend beyond national borders. I feel as distressed about the loss of the innocent lives of Iraqi citizens as I do about the loss of the innocent lives of the women and men in the U.S. military. I can view the suffering of each any time, night or day, by logging onto the "local" news in any part of the world. I can read the uncensored thoughts of anyone who wishes to share them on their personal blogs and watch the home videos they upload to YouTube and other public video sites. Government censorship is virtually impossible and the ability to hear directly from ordinary people around the world has caused me to see our connectedness. We have only just begun to realize the profound ways that technology is altering our view of the "other people" who share our planet. The use of technology to make the strange familiar will have an overall positive effect on how we think about others in our shrinking world. We are becoming more similar and connected in our basic "humanness." And, that is a good thing.

May be enough for now, but find some words to inspire yourself among these thoughtful comments.

More anon.

Labels: future, predictions

¶ 5:11 PM 0 comments

Why money is pouring into index funds and land...

Consider this prediction from Matthew Lynn at Bloomberg News:

Investors should strap themselves in for a rocky ride in the next 12 months. Equities will collapse, property will be demolished, and you won't be able to give away gold on the streets. The only haven will be fixed income. That's right, '07 will be the year of the bond.

OK, now that we've got the worst joke of the year out of the way, here are six things that might happen in 2007:

- Farming will become a great way to get rich.

High oil prices are causing a surge of interest in alternative energy, with ethanol leading the way. Making fuel from corn or other grains, however, means digging up a lot of fields. It has been more than a century since farmland was the basis for a financial aristocracy, but every asset comes back into its own if you just wait long enough. JPMorgan Chase & Co. rates corn among the best investments for 2007. [More]

[My emphasis]

As we see dollars flow into commodities, one result will be a reluctance by farmers to sell. Especially those of us who are "oversold" on 2006 crops. Perhaps we will revert to historic patterns, but I think our markets are now fringe players in the flow of global dollars [euros, yen, yuan, etc] that are looking for a return.

OK, now for a prediction of my own: 2008 will see the largest gain in farmland prices since 1987.

Also, in Chicago Tribune today, an interesting look at the new ADM CEO, Patricia Woertz. The article is not fluff, and if you couple it with Marcia Taylor's interview in Top Producer, you can see a leader under extreme pressure.

Hired from the senior ranks of California-based Chevron Corp., Woertz is charged with no less than ushering in a new age of renewable energy, reviving the economy of the rural heartland and advancing one of Illinois' biggest companies. And though she de-emphasizes her status as a "woman" CEO, she inevitably carries the flag for her gender, too.

If ADM's financial results swoon, Woertz could be gone in a hurry. Lingering allegiance to the legendary Andreas family, which ran ADM for the past 35 years, could put her in "a vulnerable position," says Ric Marshall, chief analyst at the Corporate Library research group. "The risk is very high her tenure is not going to work out." [More]

There are now sharp differences in the approach to ethanol by very big players. Compare Cargill to ADM. Each is betting heavily on a contrary outlook for the future of corn.

Many think the loss of the "blender credit" for ethanol and lowering or elimination of tariffs on imported ethanol could be fatal to ethanol producers. I'm not so sure. My guess is ADM could weather and even prosper should either or both occur. Smaller competitors would not.

Regardless, the extreme size of the demand increase seems to me to argue producers will enjoy significant market pricing power for a minimum of 2-3 years.

Of course, by that time we'll bid cash rents up to absorb the margin.

Labels: ethanol, predictions

¶ 7:40 AM 0 comments

Dog and cats living together!...

We seem to be in a competition to find the most hysterical global warming prediction. The latest entry:

[Click on picture to enlarge]

London in 2100.

Labels: global warming, predictions

¶ 7:23 PM 0 comments

If it's almost New Year's...

Then it's time for lists

of predictions

and lists

The world just seems more organized when everything has a number.

Labels: predictions

¶ 7:39 AM 0 comments

John's World Tuesday, January 02, 2007 I'm glad to be here... So, neighbors - here we are at the start of a new year and we're asking ourselves, "What is there to look forward to?" Thank goodness I got here in time with more reasons to be optimistic than you can shake a martini at: From Edge, The Third Culture : *The Edge* Annual Question — 2007 WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT? WHY? As an activity, as a state of mind, science is fundamentally optimistic. Science figures out how things work and thus can make them work better. Much of the news is either good news or news that can be made good, thanks to ever deepening knowledge and ever more efficient and powerful tools and techniques. Science, on its frontiers, poses more and ever better questions, ever better put. What are you optimistic about? Why? Surprise us!** My favorites: Stewart Brand Geoffrey Carr Malthus was wrong to observe that population increases geometrically while the resources available to support it increase arithmetically. It was an understandable mistake. It flies in the face of common sense that population growth will actually slow down in the face of better resources. But that is what happens, and it might yet save humanity from the fate predicted for it by the Club of Rome. Chris Anderson So for example, the publication last year of a carefully researched Human Security Report received little attention. Despite the fact that it had concluded that the numbers of armed conflicts in the world had fallen 40% in little over a decade. And that the number of fatalities per conflict had also fallen. Think about that. The entire news agenda for a decade, received as endless tales of wars, massacres and bombings, actually missed the key point. Things are getting better. If you believe Robert Wright and his NonZero hypothesis, this is part of a very long-term and admittedly volatile trend in which cooperation eventually trumps conflict. Percentage of males estimated to have died in violence in hunter gatherer societies? Approximately 30%. Percentage of males who died in violence in the 20th century complete with two world wars and a couple of nukes? Approximately 1%. Trends for violent deaths so far in the 21st century? Falling. Sharply. David G. Myers It's a challenge to persuade a nation to exchange its current hearing assistive technology (which requires locating, checking out, and wearing conspicuous headsets) for a technology that many more people would actually use. But the results of our west Michigan experiment, and another in 1000 California homes, supports my optimism. Doubling hearing aid functionality will greatly increase hearing aid acceptance and use. With on-the-horizon technology, we can also foresee music buffs with wireless ear bud loudspeakers. When that day comes, having something in one's ear will become as mundane as glasses for the eyes, and millions of people with hearing loss will be enjoying fuller and more connected lives. John Gottman John Horgan Susan Blackmore That is the stage we have reached now on earth. The artificial systems we have built still depend on us, and would perish with us if we all died, but they are evolving far faster than we are, and are taking up the planet's resources in the process. Some people still maintain the fantasy that we humans are in charge and can still control the memes we have let loose. Yet it must be increasingly obvious that we can't; that they are in the driving seat, not us. They are sucking up the planet's resources increasingly fast and, being selfish replicators, they have no foresight and don't care in the least what happens to us or the planet; they can't, they are just replicating information. So we are hovering at this second danger point right now. Perhaps this critical point has been reached on countless planets and none pulled through—perhaps acquiring new replicators is so dangerous that memes (or their equivalents) always wipe out the original replicator that spawned them, explaining why we have not yet heard from any other intelligent beings out there. Or perhaps it is possible to for an intelligent species to work out what has happened, repair the damage and live in harmony with the creatures it unwittingly gave rise to. I think it is, and I am optimistic that we will. Jonathan Haidt Diane Halpern Allegiances now extend beyond national borders. I feel as distressed about the loss of the innocent lives of Iraqi citizens as I do about the loss of the innocent lives of the women and men in the U.S. military. I can view the suffering of each any time, night or day, by logging onto the "local" news in any part of the world. I can read the uncensored thoughts of anyone who wishes to share them on their personal blogs and watch the home videos they upload to YouTube and other public video sites. Government censorship is virtually impossible and the ability to hear directly from ordinary people around the world has caused me to see our connectedness. We have only just begun to realize the profound ways that technology is altering our view of the "other people" who share our planet. The use of technology to make the strange familiar will have an overall positive effect on how we think about others in our shrinking world. We are becoming more similar and connected in our basic "humanness." And, that is a good thing. May be enough for now, but find some words to inspire yourself among these thoughtful comments. More anon. Labels: future, predictions ¶ 5:11 PM 0 comments Friday, December 29, 2006 Why money is pouring into index funds and land... Consider this prediction from Matthew Lynn at Bloomberg News: Investors should strap themselves in for a rocky ride in the next 12 months. Equities will collapse, property will be demolished, and you won't be able to give away gold on the streets. The only haven will be fixed income. That's right, '07 will be the year of the bond. OK, now that we've got the worst joke of the year out of the way, here are six things that might happen in 2007: - Farming will become a great way to get rich. High oil prices are causing a surge of interest in alternative energy, with ethanol leading the way. Making fuel from corn or other grains, however, means digging up a lot of fields. It has been more than a century since farmland was the basis for a financial aristocracy, but every asset comes back into its own if you just wait long enough. JPMorgan Chase & Co. rates corn among the best investments for 2007. [More] [My emphasis] As we see dollars flow into commodities, one result will be a reluctance by farmers to sell. Especially those of us who are "oversold" on 2006 crops. Perhaps we will revert to historic patterns, but I think our markets are now fringe players in the flow of global dollars [euros, yen, yuan, etc] that are looking for a return. OK, now for a prediction of my own: 2008 will see the largest gain in farmland prices since 1987. Also, in Chicago Tribune today, an interesting look at the new ADM CEO, Patricia Woertz. The article is not fluff, and if you couple it with Marcia Taylor's interview in Top Producer, you can see a leader under extreme pressure. Hired from the senior ranks of California-based Chevron Corp., Woertz is charged with no less than ushering in a new age of renewable energy, reviving the economy of the rural heartland and advancing one of Illinois' biggest companies. And though she de-emphasizes her status as a "woman" CEO, she inevitably carries the flag for her gender, too. If ADM's financial results swoon, Woertz could be gone in a hurry. Lingering allegiance to the legendary Andreas family, which ran ADM for the past 35 years, could put her in "a vulnerable position," says Ric Marshall, chief analyst at the Corporate Library research group. "The risk is very high her tenure is not going to work out." [More] There are now sharp differences in the approach to ethanol by very big players. Compare Cargill to ADM. Each is betting heavily on a contrary outlook for the future of corn. Many think the loss of the "blender credit" for ethanol and lowering or elimination of tariffs on imported ethanol could be fatal to ethanol producers. I'm not so sure. My guess is ADM could weather and even prosper should either or both occur. Smaller competitors would not. Regardless, the extreme size of the demand increase seems to me to argue producers will enjoy significant market pricing power for a minimum of 2-3 years. Of course, by that time we'll bid cash rents up to absorb the margin. Labels: ethanol, predictions ¶ 7:40 AM 0 comments Wednesday, December 27, 2006 Dog and cats living together!... We seem to be in a competition to find the most hysterical global warming prediction. The latest entry: [Click on picture to enlarge] London in 2100. Labels: global warming, predictions ¶ 7:23 PM 0 comments If it's almost New Year's... Then it's time for lists of predictions about big business about baseball from tarot cards about presidential hopefuls about media trends about business about gold and lists worst book covers best gadgets 2006 in ideas best photos buzzwords most unforgettable TV moments best places to live The world just seems more organized when everything has a number. Labels: predictions ¶ 7:39 AM 0 comments US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to... About Me Name: John Phipps Location: Chrisman, Illinois, United States Jan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting. View my complete profile ARCHIVES April 2006 / May 2006 / June 2006 / July 2006 / August 2006 / September 2006 / October 2006 / November 2006 / December 2006 / January 2007 / February 2007 / March 2007 / April 2007 / May 2007 / June 2007 / July 2007 / August 2007 / September 2007 / October 2007 / advertisement MORE FROM JOHN On the Coffee Table
Farm Journal • Top Producer • Beef Today • Dairy Today • AgDay U.S. Farm Report • Pro Farmer • Pro Farmer Members AgWeb Professional - Subscription Information • Add AgWeb.com to your Favorites FAQ • Contact Us • Privacy Policy • Advertise on AgWeb.com Quotes by eSignal • Quotes delayed at least 10 min © Copyright 2006 AgWeb.com a division of Farm Journal, Inc.
Home \| Agriculture News \| Weather \| Money & Markets \| Ag Discussions \| Site Map

About Me