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John's World
Saturday, September 01, 2007
 
Sometimes things go right...

To my resounding gratitude and amazement, my upgrade to faster satellite broadband was accomplished with only the now-standard "Son-of-a-Vista" difficulty. I was able to get online with the first helpline call to "Mark" in India (I'm guessing) and he rectified the issues that were not covered in the instructions because they don't have Vista versions out yet.

Vista never lets up, guys.

Anyhoo, I am now clocking about 1.4 Mbps vs. 700 kps previously (as clocked by PCPitstop.com). That's download, by the way - I still am only about 200K up, but even that is noticeably faster. All in all, it's the best $20/mo. [ProPlus] I have spent in a while.

This may be the only answer for many of us in rural America. It looks like the telcos have found ways to avoid providing broadband to the last few percent of us. And frankly, I'm OK with that. We are so few, and our tradition of expecting urban folks to pay for services comparable to theirs is way past its sell date.
As population density drops outside of metropolitan areas, it's impossible for telecommunications companies or cable service providers to justify the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars per mile it can cost to bring fiber to every rural community, let alone every home. The result: Today, just 17% of rural U.S. households subscribe to broadband service, according to the Government Accountability Office. And a recent report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says the U.S. dropped from fourth in the world in broadband penetration in 2001 to 15th place in 2006. Communications infrastructure is widely seen as the biggest driver of economic growth, yet 21% of Americans — the nearly 60 million people who live in rural areas — are often underserved. [More]
While cheap access to broadband would arguably help many lower income rural residents, the number is so tiny and the odds of big returns so small, I think satellite or WiMax is enough alternative.

Sprint has bet their future on WiMax, so I will be keeping a close eye on developments there, along with my son Jack, who works in the industry.
Working together with Intel, Motorola and Samsung, Sprint Nextel will develop a nationwide network infrastructure as well as mobile WiMAX-enabled chipsets that will support advanced wireless broadband services for computing, portable multimedia, interactive and other consumer electronic devices. These efforts are intended to allow Sprint Nextel customers to experience a nationwide mobile data network that is designed to offer faster speeds, lower cost, and greater convenience and enhanced multimedia quality.

The Sprint Nextel 4G mobility network will use the company's extensive 2.5GHz spectrum holdings, which cover 85 percent of the households in the top 100 U.S. markets - the most of any wireless carrier in any single spectrum band. To access that network, Sprint Nextel will work with Intel, Motorola and Samsung to incorporate WiMAX technology for advanced wireless communications and help make chipsets widely available for new consumer electronics devices, connecting consumers to the Internet and to each other while providing them with the flexibility to do what they want or need to do regardless of time or place. [More]
I think we can all guess who is in the 15% not covered.

Broadband will be our own responsibility, and maybe a real badge of honor for small, independent rural tel-coops who have invested and whose customers are the fortunate winners to date.

It could also be we will look back and recognize that the international broadband competition was essentially lost because of our firm refusal to back one solution for all.


[Thanks, Aaron]

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Monday, August 27, 2007
 
Why we won't move to a "warm climate"...

My father's generation of farmers at least, placed great stock in being warm. The attraction of a winter home where the sun never failed and the temperature never made water a solid was irresistible to them. So off they embarked to places made habitable only by air-conditioning.

When I visited my folks in Florida, I came away with a feeling of escaping from a future too ghastly for contemplation. It persists today.

Perhaps its because I have had the advantages of fleece winter coats, four-wheel drive SUV's and reliable central heating, but I have never been tempted to yank up roots to simply experience more summer than I feel nature intended.

It could be more than that. Aging occurs differently in different places.
Years ago I learned something about aging -- that it wasn't so much the date of your birth but the place you were living in that determined whether or not you were old. There was a geography of aging in America. I began to notice this when I moved from Manhattan to Los Angeles in the nineteen seventies and stayed there through the nineties working as a script writer for various studios. I don't have any East Coast snobbery about the culture or lack of it in LA: nice, sentient, intelligent, art loving, caring people actually live there -- but it became clear to me that every time I returned home to New York to visit my folks I felt ten years younger, and every time I stepped out of the terminal at LAX I aged a decade. At first I didn't have a clue as to why that was happening -- I figured that it wasn't just because my parents still viewed me as their youngest child in New York it was the LA experience. I eventually learned that one became an official senior citizen at fifty in Los Angeles, and New York was holding fast to sixty five. Sure, I could get into movies cheaper, but in LA people canvassing in malls failed to ask my opinion on any topic -- I was outside the cherished demographic of 18-40. Then it happened. When I reached fifty nine, my important LA agent called me into his office and sadly, gently fired me -- noting that although I had many awards for writing, indeed too many which gave away the length of my career, and I was a helluva nice guy, he couldn't sell me to the studios or the networks. The message the agent conveyed was that I was old news... out of touch with the zeitgeist... incapable of understanding or creating what America wanted -- an America dominated by the young, and the youth worshipers. As the father of two young sons I was stunned by this -- I felt I knew more about how young people felt and acted than most young people. But the tide was too strong to fight it, and I soon went to Germany to work on a film, and later managed to do a series for the BBC. [More]

It is very likely I am deeply in denial and time will reverse my prejudices, but the idea of NOT dying in the cold is repugnant to me.



I've been to North Dakota too often methinks.

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Sunday, August 26, 2007
 
A sad commonality...

I have friends in Denmark, and have visited several Danish farms. The farmers there have always impressed me with their skills and professionalism, as well as being warm and hospitable. I was somewhat surprised to see they struggle with the same safety issues as the US, although they apparently had one very bad year recently.
Tragic accidents on the farm were all too common last year, claiming the lives of 19 people, according to statistics from the Danish Agricultural Advisory Service and the Agricultural Working Conditions Board.

The 2006 figure is equal to the number of deaths from 2001-2005 combined. Among the 19 deaths were three children.

‘It is often older workers that lose their lives, but the farmers’ children are also killed on occasion by the heavy machinery,’ the board’s joint secretary, Anne Marie Hagelskjær, told employee union 3F. ‘The sharp increase in the number of agricultural accidents is extremely worrying.’

The four principle causes of farm accidents are falls, unattended children, machinery and farm vehicles in traffic. [More]

One of the responses listed by the farm employees union to the report was stricter licensing for farm machinery operators. This strikes me as a good idea.

Check "Perspective" in Top Producer magazine for more soon.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007
 
Sign me up...

Although I had essentially written off broadband-over-power-lines (BPL) technology, it will become reality in Dallas next year.
DirecTV said it would bundle broadband-over-powerline high-speed Internet and VoIP with its digital TV services to about 1.8 million homes in the Dallas-Forth Worth, Texas region by early 2008. Benefits of broadband-over-powerline include faster upload and download speeds compared to many cable and DSL broadband services: up to 10Mb versus 8Mb, according to Current. The broadband service is symmetric, which means upload speeds are as fast as download speeds. Moreover, broadband-over-powerline works via a go-anywhere, installation-free modem that's about the size of a regular power adapter and plugs into any electrical outlet. It is Ethernet and WiFi enabled, which means it can fill in wireless coverage gaps created by cable or DSL, said Current VP of corporate development and strategy Brendan Herron. [More]

Note the speeds mentioned above. Zoweee!! Also consider:
  • No satellite dishes
  • VoIP (Internet phone service)
  • No TV dish
  • No meter reader
  • More reliable electric service.
It's a dream, I know. But BPL would be a godsend to rural America.

[Updated: link is now activated]

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Saturday, July 07, 2007
 
Reach your own conclusions....

Or maybe any conclusion at all, it seems. Efforts by the Indiana State Department of Agriculture to increase hog production in Jay and Randolph counties are "buttressed" by a study performed by Ball State.
Livestock farms contribute more than $4 billion to Indiana’s economy each year, and that amount is growing by more than 5 percent annually. The prospects for long-term growth in livestock farms are very strong. Ball State University’s Office of Building Better Communities recently completed an analysis for two rural Indiana counties which showed that growth in the hog sector will contribute more than $100 million in total output to those local economies and contribute more than 2,300 jobs. [More]
[Long time readers will note I have not linked to the actual report - I can't find it, and everybody who refers to it fails to link it too. This is not only frustrating, it raises caution flags for me.]

Oddly enough, the same report offers ammunition for opponents as well.
An opponent of big livestock farms says a Ball State University study of the hog industry in two Indiana counties offers proof that the sprawling farms bring very little economic impact to surrounding areas.

Bill Weida, an economist for GRACE Family Farm Project, said Ball State's analysis of hog farms in Jay and Randolph counties shows that the pork industry in those counties "is creating so little economic activity that it's almost irrelevant." [More]
Not that industrial ag opponents are much better, mind you. They like to point out how much more wonderfully inefficient small operations are adding more jobs per unit of output, as if this was a good thing.

Let me try to light a candle here. State ag departments are habitual cheerleaders for anything agricultural and in my opinion write some of the the most one-sided news releases of any government branch.


An illustration of my point:
Fact: Agriculture is the driving force in most of Indiana’s rural economies. For every $1
of property taxes paid by agricultural land/farms, $0.40 is used in local services
(American Farmland Trust). Also, a survey by the Indiana Soybean Alliance found that
an 8,000 head swine facility generates $17,000 annually in property taxes and will
produce $40,000 in valuable organic crop nutrients. [More]
Citing such numbers without context implies an importance that cannot be verified. It is poor journalism, since readers cannot decide for themselves if this is the best of choices. In the above citation, for example, why not list what some other economic entities pay in taxes, like a motel, or factory, or housing development. Is it more? Less? By how much?

Most ag administrators seem unfamiliar with commerce departments since they apparently don't care about other forms of business. This is a shame, since the bean counters do numbers for a living.

Consider the opening remark: "Agriculture is the driving force..." What exactly does that mean? Given these numbers from the people who are in charge of counting the dollars in the economy - US Dept Of Commerce (DOC) - this strikes me as an incredible stretch. The real numbers for IN:
2006 State Gross Domestic Product (value of all economic activity) $249B
2006 Contribution by Ag (farms, forests, fish, hunting) $ 2B
Source: BEA
The difference in the figures from the ISDA and DOC has to do with value added, not simply gross sales, which can be very misleading. If ag can use gross receipts then other industries can inflate their numbers as well. Economists prefer value-added to describe how much wealth is really contributed to the economy.

OK, maybe in "rural counties" ag is the big force. Let's check Jay and Randolph - the counties in question:
[Note: 2005 is the latest data on a county level]
Total local income Jay $525M Randolph $681M
Ag income $15M $11M

Some driving force. Psychologists have long know the power vision has over reason. The more visible something is the more important we believe it to be. Thus farms, which cover states like IN seem to be what the state is all about - when in the counties listed above the most important sources (by far) of economic activity are manufacturing and transfer payments (SS, Medicare, federal pensions).

This is one reason more economists are questioning the power of farm payments to make much difference in local economies, especially compared to other choices for development. In fact, real numbers have led me to conclude the most important economic legislation for rural America is a solution to Social Security.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007
 
Icon not understand it...

One of agriculture's most enduring cultural icons has been the windmill.


I mean, what would we print on our checks and business cards without gambrel barns, windmills, and domed silos?

More importantly what does it say that we have no images from agriculture as we now practice it that we embrace as evocative of our way of life? We clothe ourselves in a past that has not just faded in reality but nearly from memory. I've never had any of the three (or even a narrow-front tractor) on my farm in my life, for example.

Indeed, to keep the memory of windmills going there is a Windmill Museum in Lubbock, TX. (If you are going by, stop in a post a note about your experience.)

Farmers wonder and occasionally fume that others consider them stuck in the 1950's. Consider this current quote from the Encyclopedia Britannica:
Nearly every well-equipped farm has at least one silo—a tall cylindrical structure in which slightly fermented fodder is stored in a controlled environment for use as animal feed. This stored fodder, called silage, or ensilage, rivals fresh feed in providing the nutrients necessary for livestock.
Maybe we are - in our minds.

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Saturday, June 09, 2007
 
Paris Hilton's cell phone...

May not work well in some rural areas - especially Downstate Illinois. And if landline companies have their way it may be some time before coverage gets better for the blond heiress.
The Universal Service Tax (Fund) has benefited rural citizens by helping to establish rural telephone companies. Because telephones provide a vital link to emergency services, to government services and to surrounding communities, it has been our nation’s policy to promote telephone service to all households since this service began in the 1930s. The USF helps to make phone service affordable and available to all Americans, including consumers with low incomes, those living in areas where the costs of providing telephone service is high, schools and libraries and rural health care providers. Congress has mandated that all telephone companies providing interstate service must contribute to the USF. Although not required to do so by the government, many carriers choose to pass their contribution costs on to their customers in the form of a line item, often called the “Federal Universal Service Fee” or “Universal Connectivity Fee”. [More]
But the fund has swollen to over $7B annually and is badly mismanaged. Sadly, this is a rural-on-rural problem.
Most people familiar with the universal service fund, including members of the FCC, agree that it has grown out of tune with the times. But reforming it has proven difficult because small wireline telephone companies have grown accustomed to collecting subsidies and lobbying their political representatives to keep the money flowing, said U.S. Cellular's Rooney. [More]
Those small wireline companies are typically rural phone coops whose business plans have always been financially distorted because a significant portion of their budget came from the USF - a permanent subsidy.
The basic problem is that the High-Cost Fund subsidizes small rural local exchange carriers (RLECs) on the basis of their reported costs of providing service. This cost-plus system provides no incentive to reduce costs or to provide service using the most efficient technology. On the contrary, it rewards inefficiency. As a result, according to a recent study by George Mason University economist Thomas Hazlett, subsidies can be as much as $13,000 per year per line. Hazlett estimates that yearly savings of $1 billion are easily achievable using standard mobile and satellite phone subscriptions to provide service to people in sparsely populated areas. [More]
Meanwhile, because IL cell phone companies have not been applying for USF funds to build towers downstate, the proposed cap means they won't be getting any in the future if they did try.

Bottom line, the pattern of some rural/farm constituents optimizing subsidies more shrewdly than others continues.
Recently, the USF has gained new attention as several Iowa-based companies have used USF subsidies to provide free, international calling.[1] This practice, which began in late 2006, represents an unintended consequence of the USF. [More]
The secret seems to be to live in a state with 1 Senator for about every 1000 citizens, not Illinois.

One solution Paris and I favor is reverse auctions:
Another recommendation is the use of "reverse auctions" to assign universal service obligations, a plan endorsed by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. Phone carriers would compete to become the "provider of last resort" in areas where regulators deem local services insufficient, bidding a price, to be paid by the government, to supply such services. The lowest-cost bidder wins. [More]
The political clout of rural telcos - the beneficiaries of these billions - will likely prevent this, unless the addition of wireless carriers changes the dynamics of the debate. Their argument of degraded communication consequences reminds me of predictions referring to commodity subsidy reform. Still cost-plus calculation to determine government support has seldom proven to be economically efficient. The process of learning competitive business practices would be difficult, but not impossible.

Paris and I will be following this closely. (She has a little time on her hands right now.)

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Thursday, May 03, 2007
 
Electronically disconnected...

Despite forecasts of "dispersed" lifestyles - working from home, teleconferencing, virtual meetings - people still seem to want to be with each other when doing business. Especially Big Business.
But more than that, people are evolved to deal with each other in person. Anyone who's ever had an email badly received knows that stripping the non-verbal cues off words can dramatically change how they're taken. (Americans working for British firms become particularly aware of this, because the British style is much more curt, which comes across as hostile or censorious to Americans used to appending emoticons, or their verbal equivalent, to everything.)

When you're transacting millions or billions of dollars of business, lost nuance can have catastrophic costs. Important cues such as body language don't come across on conference calls, or even teleconferences; they can only be apprehended face to face. That makes it important to have the folks doing the deals all be in the same place, or close enough to the same place (like Stamford and Greenwich hedge funds) that you can frequently meet your counterparts. [More]

One of the promises for rural America was technology would make it a place where more than farming could be done for a living. Maybe we're asking too much or worse yet, wishing for the wrong thing.

Meanwhile, my observation is rural areas are being roughly divided into growth and non-growth categories. Either they possess a magnet metropolitan area - usually with higher education, major medical services, and government offices - or they are gasping for the oxygen being sucked up by such urban areas.

I'm not sure we'll reverse this trend and re-distribute our rural population more evenly. It could be better for the type of farming we do now to have large areas essentially lightly populated, and more or less left to agriculture.

But even farmers need face time with colleagues. We may not admit it, but we do. The trick then becomes devising occasions or events that regularly provide such opportunities and then admitting to ourselves we can't really do justice to our profession over the phone,

Or via a blog.

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Tuesday, March 06, 2007
 
I smell a winner!...

The AP ran a story about miniature cattle that was picked up by papers all around the world. I love this idea! As we create more successful small farms, miniature- but familiar - livestock strikes me as an idea whose time has come. It looks to me like all the pieces are in place:

  • A growing number of small acreage farms with limited pasture sizes
  • A "native" species that looks familiar and is docile.
  • An enormous cuteness factor [Note - this link to the NY Times requires registration. It's free, they don't spam me, and nothing bad has happened in three years since I registered, so judge for yourself]- this is a real and important market quality, folks.
  • An infrastructure already in place to feed, house, treat, and research these livestock

[That's a 4-year old bull above]

In fact, I going to go out on limb and predict this idea will be a huge success for breeders of tiny cows. Ditto local processors who can slaughter and package them. Also, stop and think how much easier 4-H projects would be for 8 year-old cowpersons. Laugh if you want, then look at the numbers for miniature dog breeds.

[Re-post from 2006]

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007
 
What enormous wealth means...

Wired magazine has a cute story about a "meteor farmer".



Three days later, Arnold and his partner and investor – an oil and gas attorney from San Antonio named Philip Mani – were attacking the site with a backhoe. After digging down about 5 feet, Arnold scrabbled into the hole with a shovel and started clearing. Finally, the blade clanged against something metallic. The more dirt he moved, the more meteorite he exposed. They lowered the backhoe scoop and strapped the rock to it. Grinding and whining, the machine pulled free the biggest meteorite Arnold had ever seen.

While we could all appreciate his tenacity and ingenuity, the real nugget of this account is how the economics of meteors play out.

METEORITE HUNTING wouldn't be so lucrative if it weren't for a music executive named Darryl Pitt. He collected meteorites for years, buying them at rock-bottom rates when the only other buyers were scientists. But in 1995, sitting on a collection numbering in the hundreds, he guessed that people would pay big money for space flotsam. "I needed a mechanism to elevate the profile of my extraterrestrial friends," Pitt says. But he knew he wouldn't get any traction unless he could make people see his "friends'" inherent beauty. A former professional photographer, Pitt started shooting pictures of each of his rocks, lighting them as if they were magazine cover subjects and writing rapturous descriptions in the vein of wine connoisseurship. Then he put them on the block at Phillips International Auctioneers and Valuers, alongside dinosaur eggs and a 3,749-carat opal. The plan worked; the first auction netted close to $200,000.

Pitt is still at it. His online catalog describes meteorites as "objets d'art" with sensuous, zoomorphic shapes – an expert sales job. "Sleek tabletop specimen … evocative of the sculpture of Barbara Hepworth," goes one entry. "With a bright platinum patina and compelling from all perspectives."

Only in a culture where some have enormous amounts of money with little or no demands on it can essentially worthless objects, or even subjectively valued things such as art, command significant exchange rates.

And what's with the doctored picture? Meteorites don't glow.

[via Neatorama]

Update: How many meteorites hit the Earth every day? About 20-50.

Keep looking up!

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Thursday, December 21, 2006
 
Why and how we spend...

[This is a recycled post from last December - it's easier than rebuilding the archives]

Every now and then you spot a larger trend that resonates with a trend in agriculture. Here is one from The Economist on conspicuous consumption:

The number of luxury buyers in the developed world is also being swelled by two other trends. First, consumers are increasingly adopting a “trading up, trading down” shopping strategy. Many traditional mid-market shoppers are abandoning middle-of-the-range products for a mix of lots of extremely cheap goods and a few genuine luxuries that they would once have thought out of their price league.

Alongside this “selective extravagance” is the growth of “fractional ownership”: time-shares in luxury goods and services formerly available only to those paying full price. Fractional ownership first got noticed when firms such as NetJets started selling access to private jets. It has since spread to luxury resorts, fast cars and much more. In America, From Bags to Riches—“better bags, better value”—lets less-well-off people rent designer handbags. In Britain, Damon Hill, a former racing driver, has launched P1 International. A £2,500 ($4,300) joining fee, plus annual membership of £13,750, buys around 50-70 driving days a year in cars ranging from a Range Rover Sport to a Bentley or a Ferrari.

( Full article here)

This rang a bell - it is similar to leasing combines, etc. that is becoming a trend across the Corn and Wheat Belt. Which led me to the question of how much is the growing acceptance and popularity of such schemes fueled by the desire to drive a bigger, nicer machine for local status reasons. If even we knew ourselves well enough to answer that honestly, I doubt any of us producers would admit it.

Still, I have been known to drive a new tractor/combine/sprayer the long way 'round to a field just to casually pass a neighbor's house. When it only happens a handful of times in your career...

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Monday, December 18, 2006
 
Small schools, big problems...

Small schools in rural America are dwindling. In places like Nebraska and Montana, charming country schoolhouses simply have no one to serve. Declining populations and - perhaps more importantly, fertility - have made difficult closure decisions commonplace.

Shafer and many rural Nebraskans for years have watched people leave, businesses dry up and the number of farms and ranches dwindle. In some places, small schools are among the few remaining symbols of vitality and community identity, providing hope for the future while acting as reminders of the past. An anomaly in some states, they remain a pillar of education systems in some, like Nebraska and Montana, that have remote regions where cattle have long outnumbered people.

But populations in rural areas of those and other states are dipping to levels where there are few, and sometimes no students to teach. A school in the same county as Pony Lake shut down this year when its attendance dropped to a lone student.

In Montana, small country schools are drying up like the state's drought-plagued pastures. About a hundred have closed over the last decade and "the rate of decrease has accelerated," said Claudette Morton, director of the Montana Small Schools Alliance. [More]


We are still dropping school population here in my corner of central Illinois. It seems some towns achieve a critical mass and attract job-providers and population, or the Mother of All Good Fortune , a major government facility like a university. Others are reshaped by economics into low-cost bedroom/retirement locations for those in the lower half of our economy.

There is a popular, but mistaken belief that economic support to agriculture can reverse this trend. That seems unlikely, since the determining factor for the number of people in farming is not profitability, but technology. We are adding gizmos from GPS to robot milkers that drastically lower the need for people.

A more likely scenario as prosperity surges through low-population areas may be boarding schools. You read that right. Sure, homeschooling is a choice, but requires a parental commitment some may not be able to make.

Others been here before, and when distances were not easily covered, the boarding school became a valid choice for rural parents who could afford it. Now add in religious concerns about education, worries about competing academically, and difficulty attracting qualified teachers and we could see remote education become more acceptable to the next generation of farm families. Not to be offensive, but a growing foreign (mostly Hispanic) student percentage has awakened some unfortunate biases among rural parents who would just as soon their child grows up in a familiar (to them) culture. This concern may be greater than we think since few are willing to admit to it.

Besides, these children will likely be joined at the lip with Mom and Dad, like modern college students. And despite being traditionally associated with privileged and problem students, boarding schools may only be a voucher away for many farm families concerned with education in rural schools.

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US Farm Report host John Phipps surfs the Web so you don't have to...

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Name: John Phipps
Location: Chrisman, Illinois, United States

Jan and I farm 1700 acres near Chrisman, IL. I have also written humor and commentary for Farm Journal and Top Producer for 13 years. Please visit my website (www.johnwphipps.com) to learn about my speaking services for your group's next meeting.

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