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COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain production is raised this month as higher forecast corn production more than offsets a reduction for sorghum and the lower estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2014 Summary. Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a record 14,475 million bushels as lower reported area is more than offset by a 2.5-bushel-per-acre increase in the yield. Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 15,736 million bushels, up 129 million from last month reflecting both higher production and a 55-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks from the September Grain Stocks report. Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels with tighter corn supplies in Canada.
Projected U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is raised 50 million bushels on higher expected feed and residual disappearance driven by the larger crop, higher projected meat production, and the lower price outlook. Corn ending stocks are raised 79 million bushels to 2,081 million. The projected range for the season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.
Projected sorghum supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 12 million bushels as a 26-million-bushel reduction in forecast production more than outweighs higher beginning stocks as reported in the Grain Stocks report. Exports are projected 20 million bushels higher on strong demand from China. Domestic use is projected 40 million bushels lower as export demand makes sorghum less competitive in ethanol production and for domestic feeding. The sorghum season-average farm price range is projected 5 cents lower on each end to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel. The 2014/15 season-average farm prices for barley and oats are raised based on prices reported to date and the tighter supply situation projected for both this month.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.0 million tons higher with a small reduction in beginning stocks more than offset by a 3.2-million-ton increase in world production. Global corn production is raised 3.2 million tons with increases for EU and the United States partly offset by reductions for FSU. EU corn production is raised 2.7 million tons with increases in a number of countries based on the latest data and harvest results. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.5 million tons each for Belarus and Russia, also on the latest harvest results, which reflect the impact of hot, dry, late summer growing conditions. Global barley production is higher with increases for EU and FSU offsetting a reduction for Australia. EU mixed grain increases add to world coarse grain supplies. Foreign sorghum and millet production are lowered with reductions for India and several Sub-Saharan Africa countries.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly due to increased corn use in the United States. Corn feed use is also increased for Egypt and Iran with higher imports this month. Sorghum feed use is raised for China, also with higher imports. Global sorghum consumption, however, declines with lower production and food use for Sub-Saharan Africa and lower U.S. domestic use. Barley consumption is raised with higher feed use in China and EU. Global corn trade is lowered this month, mostly reflecting a 3.0-million-ton reduction in expected imports by EU. Exports are lowered for Canada and Russia. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 0.7 million tons higher with larger stocks in the United States.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 44 million bushels as increased production is more than offset by higher feed and residual disappearance and higher exports. Production for 2014/15 is raised 5 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains 2014 Summary. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and Hard Red Winter wheat are raised 32 million bushels and 9 million bushels, respectively. Reductions in the other three classes are partially offsetting. Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels on higher-than-expected sales for HRS and Soft Red Winter wheat. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low end to $5.55 to $6.25 per bushel.
Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.3 million tons with increased production offsetting lower beginning stocks. World production is raised 1.2 million tons led by a 3.0-million-ton increase for EU and 0.5-million-ton increases for both Pakistan and Ukraine. Decreases are led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Algeria, 0.5-million-ton reductions for both Australia and Canada, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Argentina. Changes for Northern Hemisphere countries reflect updated harvest reports and government statistics. For the Southern Hemisphere, Australia is lowered on continued dryness in portions of the southeast and Argentina is lowered on wet conditions that have limited planting.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.1 million tons to a record 714.1 million reflecting both higher food and feed use. Global wheat trade is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons to 156.0 million. The largest increase is 2.0 million tons for EU due to the larger crop. Mexico exports are raised 0.5 million tons on large durum supplies and strong international demand. Offsetting decreases are made for Kazakhstan (down 1.0 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Argentina (down 0.3 million tons) on smaller crops. Projected consumption rises faster than supplies lowering global ending stocks 3.8 million tons to 192.6 million.
RICE: U.S. all rice production in 2014/15 is forecast at 220.7 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month with the increase entirely due to higher yield. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,584 pounds per acre, up 83 pounds from last month. Yields are raised in Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas. All rice harvested area is unchanged at 2.91 million acres. Both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are raised from last month, with long-grain production projected at 160.0 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 60.7 million. The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 21.0 million cwt. Total use is projected at 233.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month with domestic and residual use at 131.0 million and exports at 102.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2011/12.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.70 to $18.70 per cwt, up 45 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range.
Global rice 2014/15 ending stocks are reduced as the decline in total supplies exceed the fall in total use. The drop in global 2014/15 rice production resulted in a decline in total supplies, despite an increase in beginning stocks. Beginning stocks are increased 0.5 million tons due mostly to increases in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. World 2014/15 rice production is projected at 475.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, and a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last year’s record crop. The fall in production is due mostly to a 1.0-million-ton decrease in India’s crop to 102.0 million tons, due to a decline in average yield. Below normal seasonal rains during the 2014 monsoon season in some regions of India were unfavorable for rice production. Rice crops are also reduced in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and several Sub-Saharan African countries. Global consumption is reduced slightly, but is still a record at 481.7 million tons, up 5.6 million tons from 2013/14. Global trade for 2014/15 is nearly unchanged from a month ago. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month, and 6.2 million below 2013/14. The decline in world ending stocks is due mostly to a decrease in India of 1.0 million tons. Forecast ending stocks are also lowered for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, partially offset by increases for Brazil, the Philippines, and the United States.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 116.3 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,927 million bushels, up 14 million with improved yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area. The soybean yield is projected at 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from September. Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 83.4 million. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 24 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks from the Grain Stocks report more than offsetting increased production. Canola, sunflower, and cottonseed production are forecast lower this month while peanut production is forecast slightly higher.
U.S. soybean exports and crush for 2014/15 are unchanged this month. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, down 25 million on reduced supplies. Prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are unchanged.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 528.4 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production more than offset reduced sunflowerseed and rapeseed production. Global soybean production is projected at 311.2 million tons, up 0.1 million. Small reductions in soybean production for China and Russia partly offset increases for the United States and EU. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is increased to a record 23.5 million tons for EU. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced on lower estimates for both Argentina and Russia. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.
Global oilseed stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 103.6 million, a 29 percent increase from 2013/14. Oilseed stocks are virtually unchanged from last month as lower rapeseed stocks in Canada offset an increase in soybean stocks. Higher soybean stocks in Argentina offset a reduction in the United States.
SUGAR: U.S. 2013/14 sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports are reduced by 72,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on end of year reporting by the U.S. Customs Service. Imports from Mexico are decreased by 12,000 STRV to 2.124 million with almost all import data in for the fiscal year. Texas cane sugar production is reduced by 2,000 STRV based on revised processor data. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are reduced by 86,000 STRV to 1.810 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use of 14.5 percent. For 2014/15, imports from Mexico are increased by 461,000 STRV to 1.549 million. Beet sugar production is increased 170,000 STRV to 4.970 million based on analysis of National Agricultural Statistics Service data. Cane sugar is reduced 19,000 STRV to 3.572 million based on processors’ reporting. As a residual, ending stocks are increased by 526,000 STRV to 1.554 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.8 percent, up 4.3 percentage points over last month.
For Mexico in 2013/14, imports are reduced by 96,000 metric tons (MT), all of which were intended for Mexico’s re-export program (IMMEX) for sugar-containing products. In a mostly parallel adjustment in use, deliveries to the IMMEX are reduced by that same 96,000 MT, plus 10,000 MT from reductions in domestic sourcing, based on pace to date. Deliveries for consumption are reduced by 50,000 MT after a fall-off in late season domestic shipments. Total deliveries are, therefore, decreased by 156,000 MT. Based on U.S. import data, exports to the United States are decreased by 11,000 MT. Based on adjustments to data, exports to non-U.S. destinations are increased by 1,000 MT (681,000 total) and production is increased by 1,000 MT (6.021 million total). These changes imply ending stocks at 685,000 MT, for a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 16.5 percent.
For 2014/15, total Mexico supply is increased by 71,000 MT in beginning stocks. Deliveries for consumption are decreased by 52,000 MT in line with the reduction made for 2013/14. Ending stocks are still forecast at 22 percent of consumption for an 11,000 MT reduction to 936,000 MT. Because total exports are forecast as a residual, their change is equal to the sum of the other changes (positive for supply, negative for use), or 134,000 MT, for a total of 1.650 million. Exports to non-U.S. destinations based on contracts are reduced by 260,000 MT to 325,000. FEESA, the entity which runs the nine government-owned mills in Mexico, announced that it had renegotiated one earlier contract and is committed to export 40,000 MT instead of the earlier negotiated 300,000 MT. As a consequence, exports to the United States are residually calculated at 1.325 million MT, up 394,000 MT.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month. For both 2014 and 2015, the increase in beef production is driven by heavier carcass weights as lower corn prices encourage producers to market heavier cattle. Pork production in 2014 is reduced from last month as slower gains in carcass weights in the second half of the year more than offset higher expected fourth-quarter slaughter. For 2015, the production forecast is raised. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the decline in third-quarter pigs per litter was less than during the first half of the year. With higher indicated farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 and into 2015, and slightly more rapid forecast recovery in pigs per liter, it is expected that a greater number of hogs will be available for slaughter during 2015. Increased pork production will also be supported by higher carcass weights. Broiler productions for 2014 is unchanged, but lower forecast feed costs are expected to encourage more rapid production growth in 2015. Turkey production for 2014 is slightly higher based on production data to date; however, the production forecast for 2015 is unchanged. Egg production is raised for both 2014 and 2015, reflecting revisions to table egg production estimates.
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are unchanged from last month. Beef exports for 2014 are lowered based on recent trade data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged. Pork imports are unchanged for 2014, but are reduced for 2015 as U.S. production is forecast higher and prices lower. Pork exports are forecast higher on strong demand in 2014 and more competitive prices in 2015. Broiler exports are raised for 2014 on current strength of demand, but the 2015 forecast is unchanged. Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015.
The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. The hog price forecast for 2014 is unchanged, but the 2015 price is lowered on larger supplies. The broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on robust demand. The turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged. The egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2014 is reduced from last month on slower growth in milk per cow. However, for 2015, the production forecast is raised as growth in output per cow is expected higher with relatively lower-priced feed. Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered as U.S. dairy prices are less competitive, but import forecasts are raised as relatively high U.S. prices encourage larger imports. The trade forecasts for 2015 are unchanged.
Butter, cheese, and whey prices for 2014 are raised from last month as domestic demand continues to support prices. Prices of these products are unchanged for 2015. However, the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are reduced as U.S. prices are expected to decline to increase the competitiveness of NDM exports. The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese and whey prices, but is unchanged for 2015. The Class IV price is raised for 2014 as higher butter prices more than offset the decline in NDM prices, but for 2015, the lower forecast NDM price results in a lower Class IV price. The all milk price is raised to $24.10 to $24.20 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $18.95 to $19.85 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2014/15 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, ending stocks, and prices. Production is reduced 283,000 bales to nearly 16.3 million. The disappearance forecasts are unchanged. The export forecast remains at 10.0 million bales, despite lower expected foreign imports, as demand for U.S. cotton is likely to be sustained. The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered to 55 to 65 cents per pound; the midpoint of 60 cents per pound is reduced 4 cents on sharply lower recent prices, which followed announcements by the government of China indicating a more restrictive import policy.
Global 2014/15 stocks are raised about 800,000 bales this month to 107 million, owing to higher beginning stocks, as increases for production and consumption are about offsetting. Production is raised 1.4 million bales, including increases for China, India, and Pakistan, which are partly offset by reductions for Brazil, the United States, Australia, and Zimbabwe. Forecast consumption by China is raised 1.5 million bales as mills there are expected to reduce yarn imports in favor of spinning domestic cotton. Consumption also is raised for Indonesia, due to changes in the historical estimates series, and Vietnam, but is reduced for India. World trade is reduced about 800,000 bales on lower imports by China. Forecast stocks for India are raised sharply from last month due to a combination of higher production and lower offtake. With China’s stocks now projected to fall by 550,000 bales from last season, stocks outside of China are expected to rise 17 percent year-on-year to about 45 million bales.
World stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.0 million bales, due mainly to higher production estimates for China and Brazil. The China production estimate is raised 750,000 bales consistent with increased estimates of cotton which entered the national reserve.
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