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The following commentaries do not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions and analysis expressed below are the authors' own.



Our editors spend some time roaming the web looking for stuff cattle people and others in agriculture might find useful or entertaining. 

Last Post: Hysteria Porn - 10/23/2014 1:08:00 PM
 

Sara is the Director of Sustainability & Supply-Chain Solutions for Vela Environmental, a division of Kennedy and Coe, LLC where she leads the firm's Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) On-Demand Services.  This blog explores the topic of agricultural sustainability -- including the market forces and hidden drivers propelling it from a pragmatic and solutions-oriented point of view.  Follow Sara on Twitter: @SustainAgViews expressed are solely those of Sara Harper.

Last Post: Weekly Sustainability News Roundup - 10/23/2014 11:03:00 AM
 


Paul is now part of the fourth generation in America that is involved in farming and hopes the next generation will be involved also. Through his blog he provides analysis and insight to farmer tax questions.

 

The Hueber Report is a grain marketing advisory service and brokerage firm that places the highest importance on risk management and profitable farming.

Last Post: Has she begun to sing yet? - 10/23/2014 9:36:00 AM
 

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

Last Post: Low Prices Spur Demand for Corn and Soybeans - 10/23/2014 9:24:00 AM
 

Read the latest crop reports from the fields across America! Also, submit your own comments.

Last Post: October Crop Comments - 10/23/2014 8:33:00 AM
 

The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew, President of Grain Hedge and GeoGrain, received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life. Cody Bills received his Business Administration degree, concentrating on finance, from the University of Vermont. Beginning his career as an analyst for a local investment firm, Cody’s insight and understanding of the grain markets has led to national publication as well as an invitation to host Grain TV daily and be a regular guest on AgWeb Radio.

 

Last Post: Big Export Sales Hit Soybean Market - 10/23/2014 8:07:00 AM
 

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Last Post: Can Exports Inject A Boost? - 10/23/2014 5:51:00 AM
 

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Last Post: Can Corn Demand Push Prices Higher? - 10/23/2014 1:27:00 AM
 

Grain TV is a daily recap after the market close, providing opinions on fundamental analysis of market direction, influences and expectations. This daily program is produced by Grain Hedge, a discount brokerage firm that provides farmers and elevators with agricultural intelligence including live market quotes, cash bid data, the Grain Hedge Optimizer™ and mobile trading platforms, all for $7 commission per side. Grain Hedge provides tools to allow farmers the ability to trade when the markets move without having to wait for a broker and the information to execute a marketing strategy with confidence.

Last Post: Volatile Day in Chicago - 10/22/2014 5:25:00 PM
 

A cartoonish look at life...

Last Post: Fall is here! - 10/22/2014 4:54:00 PM
 

Coverage of the World Food Prize and Borlaug Symposium, by the student journalists of the University of Missouri.

Last Post: Who’s Who at the World Food Prize - 10/22/2014 10:03:00 AM
 

Comments, questions, opinions...this is your chance to speak out regarding anything and everything reported on U.S. Farm Report. Viewer feedback updated regularly.

Last Post: Farm Report Viewers Speak - 10/21/2014 7:16:00 PM
 

Joseph Vaclavik is the president at Standard Grain in Chicago. Standard Grain provides futures and options brokerage to farms, feedlots, elevators, processors, end-users and traders. Visit www.standardgrain.com for more information.

 

Last Post: Video: October 21 Grain Commentary - 10/21/2014 2:35:00 PM
 

Jim Dickrell is the editor of Dairy Today and is based in Monticello, Minn.

 

A closer look at how dairies are using sustainable practices that are not only economically viable but based on science, common sense and respect for the world around them.

Last Post: Caring Begins on the FARM - 10/20/2014 3:14:00 PM
 

Learn how to better manage your machinery investments from Greg Peterson, a.k.a. "Machinery Pete." He's been researching and analyzing machinery auction prices for more than 20 years.

Last Post: Very Clean John Deere Tractors on Minnesota Auction - 10/20/2014 12:01:00 PM
 

As a farm machinery mechanic and writer, Dan brings a hands-on approach that only a pro can muster. Along with his In the Shop blog, Dan writes a column by the same name as well as the Shop Series for Farm Journal magazine. Always providing practical information, he is a master at tackling technical topics and making them easy for all of our readers to understand. He and his wife, Becky, live near Bouton, Iowa.

Last Post: Diagnosis By Operaor - 10/19/2014 8:53:00 AM
 


Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor.

Last Post: Miracle Rally or Routine Business? - 10/17/2014 3:56:00 PM
 

Mike Walsten has covered major business trends in agriculture for more than 40 years.

 

 This is Tim Hannagan it is February 7th. The weekly export inspection report came out Monday at 10 AM central time. Beans inspected and loaded on ships were 45.4 million bushels, down from 73.9 the week prior and four-week average of 61. China was in for 30 million bushels of the total versus 47 million bushels last week thus making their second lowest import in three months. We expected lower business as China's in their lunar holiday this week as well as soybeans are being bought in Brazil now at one dollar under U.S. posted prices. Our export business is still good, just no longer great. It should continue to erode into month end. Weekly inspections last February averaged 37 million bushels, March 21 million bushels and April only 10 million.


Corn inspections were 21.6 million bushels down from 29 million last week. Wheat inspections were 11.6 million bushels versus 14.6 the week prior. Both corn and wheat are showing weak demand near-term. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 577 thousand metric tons of beans were sold last week for future shipment. China was in for 436 of the total versus the two prior weeks of 251 and 259. China was overbooking ahead of this week's lunar holiday closings. Last February the average was 341 weekly and March 305. With soybeans selling one dollar lower in Brazil and harvest underway we have to assume the seasonal correction is near. Additionally, we saw decreases or cancellations of 530 t.m.t. thought to be China.

We have our USDA monthly crop report out Monday at 11 AM central time.  The last five reports we broke down after the report as funds took profits and pay bonuses on profits taken. Should the heat dome threatening crops in Brazil said to be coming to an end late next week, coupled with the fact if we come in Monday and  get a neutral soybean report with unchanged on ending stocks, March beans could pull back to 12.60. Yet, a 5 million bushel or more cut in ending stocks and talk of a heat dome extending, we will test 13.75 or higher quickly. Since the crop report is late in the market trading day there's time to get the latest weather updates ahead of the report's release. If we don't get any bullish surprises for grains Monday, we can expect prices to correct. Support on March corn is 4.40 then 4.20 with resistance 4.50 then 4.60. Support on March wheat 5.56, 5.50 resistance 5.96. Support on March beans 13.20, 13.00, 12.60 resistance 13.40 then 13.75.
 
Just a reminder every Thursday at 3:00 central time, I am holding a grain webinar discussion talking everything from supply, demand, charts and weather for about one hour. The webinar is free for anyone to attend and if you cannot make it live a recording will be sent to your email per signup. Simply email me atthannagan@walshtrading.com or call me at 888.391.7894 for webinar signup or to be added to my Premier Grain email distribution list. 

 

 
Tim Hannagan
Senior Grain Analyst, Walsh Trading
312.957.8108
888.391.7894 toll free

  

Please visit our website at www.walshtrading.com for additional audio commentaries, market insights and webinar recordings.
 
 
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS
Last Post: The Grain Report by Tim Hannagan - 10/17/2014 1:33:00 PM
 

For nearly 30 years, Doug Austin has been studying the "art of observation" and filtering out the human truths. Whether digging for key consumer insights or preparing the next national retail promotion, it’s all about the ability to "hear and see" what others may not and asking the hard questions. Austin is the SVP of growth and innovation and leads product and brand innovation sessions for Marlin Network.

Brand Experience Includes: Miller Brewing Company, Coca Cola, PepsiCo, Rolling Rock, Labatt’s, Tyson Foods, J.M. Smucker Co., H.E.B., Wal-Mart, Safeway, Target, Giant Eagle, Frito-Lay, Von Dutch Fashions, Auntie Anne’s, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Uncle Ben’s, Freschetta, Red Baron, Tony’s, Asian Sensations, Nestle Professional, Canadian Beef Information Centre, Dean Foods.

 

Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.

Last Post: Is the Low in for Soybeans? - 10/16/2014 3:21:00 PM
 

Experts cover today’s key dairy labor issues and offer fool-proof techniques to optimize employee performance, sat­isfaction and longevity.

 

Insurance tools have become an integral part of managing your farming operation. Stay current on insurance tools and how to incorporate them with your current risk management strategies to market your grains throughout the year.

Last Post: Protecting Your Insurance Indemnity - 10/16/2014 8:15:00 AM
 

You face risks as you cultivate crops and raise livestock. We’ll share tips, stories and recommendations to help you protect property and prevent costly losses on the farm. It's our Policy of Working Together®.

 

Robin Schmahl is a commodity broker and owner of AgDairy LLC, a full-service commodity brokerage firm located in Elkhart Lake, Wis. He provides dairy market insight.

 

Technology editor Ben Potter brings you the latest in technology news, and how you can apply it to farming.
 

 

Last Post: Weather Watch: Monsoon Time Lapse [VIDEO] - 10/10/2014 3:59:00 PM
 

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

Last Post: Friendly report leads to a market selloff - 10/10/2014 3:48:00 PM
 

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

Live Cattle

  In four of the past five weeks Live Cattle made new highs. Last week was no exception. However, after making new highs on Thursday, sellers came in and a pullback resulted. The pullback formed a Bearish Engulfing candle. An engulfing candle formation is a two bar formation. The 1st candle’s open and close is engulfed by the 2nd candles’ open and close. It is considered a reversal formation. It can be either bullish or bearish. It depends where it takes place in the price action. This one is a bearish formation in my opinion. It also formed an outside day where it took out both the high and low of the previous day. It also covered the four days prior highs’ and lows’. This in my view is another negative condition. The weekly chart has also the makings of a reversal formation. Cattle had a strong rally 2 weeks ago and then made another new high this week. After making the new high Cattle couldn’t hold on to it. Buyers and sellers fought it out and ended up closing the week near the open. This is a Doji. The neutral end to the week in my view shows buyers are becoming cautious. A red candle close this week would form an Evening Star Formation.  This is considered a reversal signal. If  cattle takes out last week’s low at 164.40, sellers could take control. The 38.2% retracement lies in wait at 159.90 and the weekly 8 period simple moving average is at 158.6.

  Please join me as I take a look at the Livestock markets on October 22, 2014. If you are not able to attend the webinar live, a recording will be sent to you if you register for the event.

Sign Up Now

 

 

Benedetto DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

 

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

 

53 W. Jackson

Suite 750

Chicago, IL 60604

Direct: 312.957.4163

             888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

 

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as an Independent Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

 

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.  WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Last Post: Tim Hannagans' Grain Report for October 9th - 10/10/2014 12:00:00 PM
 

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

Last Post: WASDE Report for 10/10/14 - 10/10/2014 11:24:00 AM
 

Dairy trading experts offer strategies and practical perspectives to optimize market performance.

Last Post: Hedging for Rallies and Risks - 10/9/2014 2:15:00 PM
 

Dairy Today's Catherine Merlo brings you the latest from the World Dairy Expo.

Last Post: Robotic Milking Picks Up Speed in the U.S. - 10/4/2014 1:03:00 PM
 

Backed by a team of nutritionists, researchers, and the industry-leading portfolio of corn and forage products, your local Pioneer sales professional can help take your farm to the next level. Visit the Silage Zone® for unique feed solutions to your day-to-day challenges or talk to your local Pioneer sales professional today.

Last Post: How to Fall in Love with Alfalfa Again - 10/3/2014 8:00:00 AM
 

John Dillard grew up on a beef cattle farm and now works as an agricultural and environmental litigation attorney with OFW Law. His blog analyzes legal issues and court decisions that affect America’s farmers and ranchers.

 

 

 

Last Post: EPA stomps off the playground - 10/2/2014 3:55:00 PM
 

Keeping cows well. Driving the profitability of dairies. Ensuring a safe, healthy food supply. Zoetis is on a mission to help you practice Dairy Wellness every day. We’re excited to introduce DairyWellness.com, a new website that connects producers and veterinarians to up-to-date information on current management practices and tips from our technical services team.

Last Post: There's a new tool in genetics management - 10/2/2014 9:30:00 AM
 

Strengthen your facility’s integrated pest management (IPM) program with fly control from ClariFly® Larvicide and Starbar® Products. ClariFly® Larvicide prevents adult house, stable, face and horn flies from developing in and emerging from the manure of treated cattle. Starbar® traps, baits and sprays can provide additional control to reduce migrating fly populations. Unlike conventional insecticides that attack the nervous system of insects, ClariFly® Larvicide works by interrupting the fly’s life cycle. The active ingredient, diflubenzuron, is considered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to pose a low risk to human health and the environment.

Adult flies can also migrate from other areas. In these situations supplemental fly control measures from Starbar® Products may be implemented in and around barns, calf pens and dry lots. On-animal and premise insecticide applications and/or the use of traps and baits may be necessary to control these migrating adult flies. Starbar® Products provide long-term control and reliable performance, acting as the ideal complement to any facility’s integrated pest management program. Visit www.centralflycontrol.com and www.starbarproducts.com to learn more.

 



Welcome to your one-stop source for wheat information, where wheat producers across the country communicate with each other and provide up-to-date information about their crop.

Last Post: Wheat Crop Comments - 9/17/2014 9:28:00 PM
 

This blog focuses on making complex and difficult topics in estate and business planning understandable and applicable to the reader.

 

Last Post: Estate Taxes - What a Difference a State Makes! - 9/15/2014 12:50:00 PM
 

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Last Post: The downtrend continues in corn! - 9/12/2014 10:43:00 AM
 

Our family farming history began with my great-great-... (nine generations ago) grandfather Johannes. He, his wife and three children left Saxony, Germany, on April 20, 1734, aboard the ship St. Andrew, mastered by Capt. John Stedman. They landed at Philadelphia on Sept. 22 and eventually settled our family’s first "New World" farm near Society Run in Frederick Township, Montgomery County, Pa., in 1743. Pig farming was our family’s specialty until the mid 1950s. A lot has changed since then. Our BQA cow–calf operation includes 100% grass-fed registered Red Angus, Hereford and purebred Beefalo; 30 to 35 pastured Duroc and Spot pigs; 100 Freedom Ranger broilers; and 90 Golden Comet and Buff Orpington layers. We organically maintain 80 acres, comprising 15 acres in rotational pastures, 15 acres in tillable cropland, and alfalfa/mixed grass hay on the balance. We have never used chemical pesticides or herbicides on our pastures or hay fields. We are not a "certified" organic farming operation, but we prefer the natural/organic approach to help promote sustainability.

Last Post: Backgrounding cattle - 9/11/2014 7:20:00 PM
 

Janzen Ag Law is a blog written by Todd Janzen, former Kansas farmer now practicing attorney in Indiana. Topics include all types of legal questions facing modern farmers and agribusinesses, including contracts, environmental regulations, nuisance, big data and privacy concerns, as well as other issues. His email is tjanzen@psrb.com. He tweets from @JanzenLaw. His regular blog columns can also be found at JanzenAgLaw.com.

 

Dean is Chairman Emeritus of 'Truth About Trade & Technology, a nonprofit advocacy group led by a volunteer board of American farmers.

 

This is a private blog for Pioneer.

Last Post: Congress heading back to "work." - 9/5/2014 10:24:00 AM
 

Rick Lundquist is an independent nutrition and management consultant based in Duluth, Minn. He provides livestock production advice.

Last Post: Keep Feeders Informed, Involved, Motivated - 8/28/2014 1:50:00 AM
 

Heritage Iron Magazine was founded in 2008 in order to fill a need for those interested in muscle tractors. Heritage Iron features all brands, all makes, and all models of muscle tractors from the 1960’s to mid 1980’s including the equipment used by the tractors. Each issue highlights a featured tractor and presents a detailed account of the tractor, its attributes, its history, and its owner. Other regular features in the magazine are machinery milestones, letters to the editor, equipment and company history, classified ads, auction results, an editor’s page, farm toys, literature and memorabilia.

Last Post: How Much Is Your Tractor Worth? - 8/22/2014 8:15:00 AM
 


Here’s your chance to share a photo of your favorite tractor.

Last Post: The Unique Avery Ro-Trak Tractor - 8/22/2014 8:04:00 AM
 

John Block has dedicated his professional career to the fields of agriculture, food and health.

Last Post: To Salt or Not? - 8/20/2014 12:55:00 PM
 

Financial management experts, lenders and accountants share ways for dairy producers to improve money and credit management. Look for help on budgets, taxes, loans, financial performance and even bankruptcy.

 

Marketing Strategy

 

Check back on this blog for information about the event as well as reports from Corn College.

Get more corn news.

 

 

Covering all things agriculture; high-brow, low-brow and all points in between.

Last Post: Farmland and cults a nasty mix - 7/8/2014 4:40:00 AM
 

Kristina grew up in a small farming community in southwest Iowa. Today, she lives on five acres in the country while running her own consulting business in the city.  Her website, www.kristinashouse.com, features homemaking, gardening, travel, entertainment, business and technology tips. In the kitchen, Kristina bridges the recipes of her past to the new flavors and fashionable foods of today. In business, she combines a Midwest work ethic with trendy tech tools.  Join her each week for flashbacks and fast-forwards. To contact her, e-mail: Kristina@kristinashouse.com.

Last Post: China - Soybeans or Baked Beans? plus new recipes - 6/29/2014 5:49:00 AM
 

Kevin Spafford is Farm Journal’s succession planning expert for the Farm Journal Legacy Project.  He hosts the nationally-televised ‘Leave a Legacy’ TV, facilitates an ongoing series of workshops for farm families across the U.S., and is the author of Legacy by Design: Succession Planning for Agribusiness Owners.

Last Post: Commit to Success - 6/25/2014 5:11:00 AM
 

Thoughts and comments from Dairy Today readers.

Last Post: Of Cows and Men – A Look Back on Milk Prices - 6/20/2014 6:28:00 AM
 

The Machinery Journal blog is your place to find the latest machinery updates, industry news, and interesting tid bits.

Last Post: Machinery As Art - 6/20/2014 4:10:00 AM
 

The Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation is an independent, nonprofit institute headquartered in Ardmore, Okla. Founded in 1945, the Noble Foundation conducts direct operations, including assisting farmers and ranchers, and conducting plant science research and agricultural programs, to enhance agricultural productivity regionally, nationally and internationally. www.noble.org

Last Post: Off-season bull management aids breeding success - 6/16/2014 10:01:00 AM
 

By Tim Hannagan

Senior Grain Analyst, Walsh Trading, Inc.
312-957-8108 or 888.391.7894
email: thannagan@walshtrading.com 

 

 

This is Tim Hannagan it's Friday, December 13th. Last week we talked about selling the beans going short after Tuesday’s December 10 USDA monthly crop report this week. The last three weekly reports I discussed the building of bearish demand fundamentals in soybeans lending to a break in prices after the USDA crop report. Coming into December, exports were slightly over the record year prior. Sales are 93% of the USDA 2013-14 forecast. But Chinese business is changing. Understand that China imports account for almost 90% of our sales. From October 28th to November 25th, grains inspected and shipped averaged 83 million bushels, highs of the year. The average since is only 59 million bushels. Chinese shipments received in the same period went from 57 million bushels to 36 million the last two weeks. Note, shipments are more important now than exports to be determined later because future shipments are expected to be canceled from China if South American weather stays optimal for growing conditions in January and February. Looking forward, last year’s shipments from December 15th to January 31st averaged 40 million bushels. The recent weekly export sales report showed a Chinese slowdown as well. The last two weeks saw average Chinese purchase for future shipments at 428 thousand metric tons versus the four prior weeks of 969 thousand metric tons. The four-week average in September was 704. What broke beans down $.20 Thursday after the weekly export sales report release was even though total sales were 1.108 million metric tons, up 38% from the week prior, Chinese purchases were only 558 thousand metric tons, the second lowest in two months and index and trend following funds look to Chinese purchases for direction. Other buyers are not in consistently on a weekly basis. In December of 2012 for instance we had export sales the first two weeks of December at 1.142 million metric tons and 1.319. Then China saw the good weather in South America as nonthreatening to the crops and began to cancel previous US purchases to buy cheaper beans from Brazil for February on out. The last two weeks of December saw 616 and 87 thousand metric tons with the weekly average in January of 612, February 341 and March 305 thousand metric tons. With good weather in Brazil through mid February, Brazil could produce 10 million metric tons of soybeans more for late February to April delivery. With no genuine weather threat such as a LA-NINA or EL-NINO weather pattern, China may be beginning their seasonal exit from U.S. overbooking of soybeans as insurance against a drought in South America. Today Friday, we had a low basis March beans of 13.00, which is a major support price on the charts. That represents monthly profit-taking by funds as they always pull profits out after US crop reports as they usually have a measurable rally. They took $.35 off the high of the October report, $.50 off the November report and $.40 off Decembers report. If we are in for a bigger seasonal break we need to close under 13.00 basis March. The wildcard now is weather in South America through February or China re-enters the U.S. as a major buyer of beans. Argentina does look very dry and hot the next 15 days. Technical’s read like this, March bean support is 13.00 then 12.80 and 12.60. Resistance 13.45. March corn support is 4.20 then 4.08. Resistance 4.30 then 4.40. March wheat support 6.05, resistance 6.36. Don't forget my weekly webinars each Thursday at 330 central time for a live review or you can get a recording by going to the Walsh website at www.walshtrading.com.

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Last Post: Seasonally, Corn turns up after Memorial Day - 5/28/2014 7:34:00 AM
 

Have your agronomic questions answered by a Farm Journal agronomist. E-mail us directly at TestPlots@FarmJournal.com, and we’ll respond on this blog to provide an interactive dialogue.

Last Post: Will dry soil impact my soil pH reading? - 5/22/2014 3:40:00 AM
 

Inputs Monitor Editor Davis Michaelsen adds his perspective into the happenings of the inputs markets.

Last Post: State-by-State Nutrient Charts YTD Part 1: Nitrogen - 4/25/2014 9:34:00 AM
 

Jamey Kohake offers expert marketing advice and analysis to help you grow and strengthen your operation. For more than 15 years, Jamey has advised grain and livestock producers on price trends, cash grain analysis and marketing strategies. His technical and fundamental analysis is highly regarded and can be heard on several national radio programs and seen in multiple print publications. To visit with Jamey, please e-mail Jamey.Kohake@myparagonmail.com or call 785-338-4111.

Last Post: Bin Buster Crop On The Way? - 4/25/2014 9:22:00 AM
 

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete takes time to talk with Pro Farmer Members about some of the key issues in each week's Pro Farmer newsletter.

Last Post: Redesigned ProFarmer.com Coming Next Week! - 4/25/2014 8:07:00 AM
 

Mike Jubinville is the editor of Pro Farmer Canada based out of Winnipeg. He is well known for his analysis and perspective on Canadian markets and their global impacts.

Last Post: Statistics Canada Sees Fewer Canola Acres - 4/24/2014 4:50:00 AM
 

Angie Maguire spent her life on a farm before returning to agriculture from a cash grain perspective. Her years of experience running a diverse and unique direct ship cash grain program, coupled with her current position as the Vice President of Grain for Citizens LLC in Charlotte, MI has given her an in-depth understanding of basis, spreads and futures. This knowledge and experience translates into her ability to help her customers see the flow of cash grain and prices, maximizing margins and returning solid results. "Cash is King" focuses on the developments in the cash market, as well as ways you can take advantage of potential opportunities as they develop. Angie is known as the @GoddessofGrain on Twitter.

Last Post: Using Spreads to Enhance Your Marketing - 4/23/2014 2:19:00 AM
 

Enjoy some good one-liners and bits from your favorite late-night comedians.

Last Post: Silly Government - 4/3/2014 9:29:00 AM
 

We trade what you grow!

 

Last Post: Back to Basis - 3/7/2014 2:34:00 PM
 

The Livestock Today blog is your place to learn the latest production news for the livestock industry.

Last Post: Caught on Camera - 2/7/2014 4:47:00 AM
 

Northern Plains Nitrogen, LLC, provides guess commentary for the Pro Farmer Inputs Monitor. For more information, click here.

Last Post: The Realities of Domestic Nitrogen Production - 12/13/2013 5:33:00 AM
 

Greg Wagner is president of GWX – Ag Advisors. For over 25 years, he has specialized in advising agricultural producers and end-users on marketing and risk management decisions. GWX Ag Advisors integrates fundamental and technical analysis, combined with experienced historic perspectives of agricultural markets in the decision-making process.

 

Last Post: Marketing Behind The 8 Ball - 11/22/2013 2:30:00 AM
 

The HungerU Tour is dedicated to connecting with college students and sharing the story of modern ag’s role in tackling world hunger. Here the HungerU Staff will provide updates and thoughts from the road.

Last Post: Small Town, Great Big Impact–LaGrange College - 11/8/2013 7:42:00 AM
 

The AgriTalk broadcast is done for today, but the conversation continues. AgriTalk host Mike Adams shares his thoughts and opinions on the news of the week and invites your feedback.

Last Post: Congress Takes a Break... From Doing What? - 11/1/2013 9:00:00 AM
 

Margaret Winsryg is a technical support specialist with Calibrate® Technology. Margaret holds a Bachelor’s Degree in animal health science, a Master’s Degree in ruminant nutrition from the University of Arizona, and a Ph.D. in animal science nutrition from Utah State University.

 

The Syngenta Field Report features information and experts from Syngenta sharing observations about issues growers are dealing with in the fields.

 

Check back on this blog for information about the event as well as reports from Soybean College.

Last Post: Gain Bushels at Soybean College - 7/24/2013 8:51:00 AM
 

Matt's primary interest is in the biotech industry and ag policy.

Last Post: I, Chicken? - 7/19/2013 6:59:00 AM
 

We’re unlocking the mystery and getting inside the heads of Top Producer of the Year winners and finalists. Check out what they’ve learned along the way and tips that you might be able to incorporate into your own farm.

Last Post: Chad Olsen - 7/2/2013 8:44:00 AM
 

Get expert agronomic advice from local Channel Seedsmen anytime, anywhere at AgWeb's Seeds of Success section. Issues include weed management, corn root worm, handling drought conditions and much more.

 

Chris BarronHave a margins question? Through this blog, you will gain insight into improving your bottom line, as a margins expert answers questions and provides farm business advice.

 

 

Even at an early age, Cheryl Day was a passionate and practical advocate for agriculture. Check out her viewpoint on current agricultural topics.

Last Post: No Meat in School - 5/3/2013 2:17:00 PM
 

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Last Post: Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 2 - 4/2/2013 1:57:00 AM
 

As part of Pro Farmer's mission to promote agriculture, we will be highlighting a wide variety of blogs from farmers, ranchers and other agriculture professionals. If you have an idea for a submission (or would like us to feature your blog) email Julianne Johnston for consideration.

 

Ruminant nutritionists provide information on beef cattle nutrition-related topics.

Last Post: More Cows too Early In the Season - 3/15/2013 4:07:00 AM
 

Join us on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour every third full week of August, as we trek across the Midwest to collect more than 1,000 samples from corn and soybean fields.

Last Post: Crop Tour Website Now Available - 3/6/2013 12:04:00 AM
 

Read the latest blog from Steve Cornett.

Last Post: Plainview Workers’ "Emancipation" - 2/20/2013 7:12:00 AM
 

This lean hog and feed commentary contains thoughts from Jeremy Knutson, a commodity broker with Hurley & Associates.

Last Post: 02/13/13 - Hog Margin Management In Volatile Times - 2/13/2013 9:21:00 AM
 

Follow Kip Cullers, a Purdy, Mo., farmer known for his bin-busting soybean yields, Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie and Farm Journal Machinery Editor Margy Fischer as they travel to Brazil to learn more about the country's soybean production.

Last Post: A $1 Million Cow - 2/7/2013 6:55:00 AM
 

Andy is a seasoned grain market analyst and the senior account executive at Walsh Hedging. His main focus is assisting producers and end users to better hedge their investments through his various market strategies over his years of experience working on the grain floor.

Last Post: Walsh Commercial Hedging 12/19/2012 - 12/19/2012 10:04:00 AM
 

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

 

Jeanne, Top Producer Editor, grew up on a beef cattle operation in Southwest Missouri and now writes from the heart of corn country in Eastern Iowa.

Last Post: A Finalist, But Not The Winner - 12/7/2012 7:31:00 AM
 

"Beltway Beef" serves as a sounding board for the U.S. beef industry for decisions being made in Washington, D.C., that directly impact the cattle business. Posts on "Beltway Beef" are produced by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association staff and invited guests.

Last Post: Study’s Anti-Grazing Myths Debunked - 12/3/2012 3:21:00 AM
 

North American Trading & Logistics (NATL, natlcommodities.com) focuses on market timing, forward buying and formula pricing of cash commodities, and provides clients with strategies that effectively convert inventory and commodity volatility into increased savings and earnings. NATL's blog is intended to provide insight regarding cash/agricultural commodities, such as beef, poultry, pork, corn and cooking oil, and related topics, such as industry trends and market conditions. We welcome your feedback!
 

Last Post: Corn Crops, Consumption and Cost - 9/28/2012 12:33:00 PM
 

Mark Gulley is a principal at Gulley & Associates LLC.

Last Post: Crop Inputs Pricing Underway - 9/25/2012 9:37:00 AM
 

From time to time we receive interesting pictures from Members that tell the story of their lives, ranging from crop conditions to everyday happenings. We'd like to share those pictures with you: E-mail Meghan Pedersen to have your photo or video considered for this blog, including your location and a short caption.


 

Last Post: Putting a Face on Ag - 8/30/2012 3:40:00 AM
 

Crop Tour

Last Post: Participate in the Pro Farmer Virtual Crop Tour - 8/20/2012 4:00:00 AM
 

Barn Buzz is the place to read about everything social media or advocacy. Get real time updates from Anna-Lisa by following her on Twitter, or subscribing to her on Facebook.

 
 

Last Post: Death of a Corn Crop - 7/5/2012 8:48:00 AM
 

Jonathan is an emergency management coordinator with a passion for all things weather. He currently lives in south-central Pennsylvania with his wife and son.

Last Post: Trouble in the Tropics - 6/23/2012 8:50:00 AM
 

An irreverent look at economics, finance, trading and politics.
Last Post: Electronic Trading Vs. Open Outcry - 6/22/2012 4:22:00 AM
 

Justin is the Vice President of KIS Futures., an independent brokerage located in Oklahoma City. He focuses on agriculture and energy price risk management. Justin has been featured in agriculture trade publications, regional radio shows, and national newspapers.

Last Post: Post-Spain Bailout versus USDA Reports - 6/11/2012 5:27:00 AM
 

Chris Galen is the Senior Vice President of Communications for the National Milk Producers Federation .

Last Post: Genes that Aren't Blue - 5/7/2012 8:40:00 AM
 


Dan Goehl, DVM, and his wife own and operate Canton Veterinary Clinic in Canton, MO, where Dan works primarily with stocker and cow/calf beef operations.

Last Post: "Meatless Monday" Moves into Rural Schools - 3/19/2012 4:13:00 AM
 

Comments, questions, opinions...this is your chance to speak out regarding anything and everything reported on AgDay. Viewer feedback updated regularly.

Last Post: Horse Slaughter - 2/28/2012 7:36:00 AM
 

Welcome to the Southern View blog featuring fresh information about grains and cotton production in Brazil, along with information about Argentina's and Paraguay's crops.

Last Post: Soybean Harvest in Brazil - 2/15/2012 7:01:00 AM
 

Tune into the GrainTV report, three times weekly.

 

NPK Fertilizer Advisory Services provides you with the information, analysis and recommendations that can help you decide when and at what price level to buy your fertilizer.

 

Share the joys, disappointments and cravings two protein loving farm kids, David Jones and Carrie Isaacson, experience as they embark on an adventure to discover firsthand what it is like to be vegan. Follow @carrie_isaacson and @david_jones for more!

Last Post: The home stretch! - 1/20/2012 5:30:00 AM
 

Pro Farmer editors will keep you up-to-date on Membership benefits.

Last Post: Members: Time to 'Login' - 12/23/2011 12:11:00 AM
 

Farmers Feeding the World is a non-profit initiative of the Farm Journal Foundation.

Last Post: Seed to Succeed - 12/12/2011 11:21:00 AM
 

Pete is a 30 year veteran of agricultural markets, an agribusiness consultant, and the publisher of Opening Print.

Last Post: CME's $85 Million Christmas Gift. Bah, Humbug! - 11/29/2011 2:49:00 PM
 

Comments and insight to the show from Chip Flory, host of “Outdoors on the Farm."

Last Post: What a Trip! - 11/28/2011 10:12:00 AM
 

AgWeb Editor Greg Vincent takes a big-picture look at agriculture and current events.

Last Post: Corn and Soybean Yields Rise Ahead of Thanksgiving - 11/23/2011 5:36:00 AM
 

Farm Journal's Pam Smith says between the lines of every article she writes are backstories. These interesting tidbits or incidents that happen along the way provide plenty of fodder to ruminate on. Yet, they often never make it to the pages of Farm Journal. This blog is designed to give a behind the scenes look at how some of our journalism efforts unfold.

Last Post: The Haunted Ear - 10/31/2011 8:57:00 AM
 

Located at the Chicago Board of Trade, Advantage Grain is a specialized division of MF Global focusing exclusively on the grain and livestock markets. Read their latest market commentary.

Last Post: Macro Risks Increase as Ag News Remains Slow... - 10/26/2011 2:33:00 AM
 

Through years of working with high net worth farm families, Josh has refined strategies to help owners achieve their succession goals.  As a Principal in Legacy by Design, Josh is dedicated to providing highly personalized succession solutions for farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness owners.  He is instrumental in furthering Legacy by Design's growth, by serving as a trainer and liaison for Legacy Certified Advisors(tm) throughout the U.S.

Last Post: "But I don't want to generate conflict." - 10/14/2011 4:54:00 AM
 

The Dairy Life: helping family-owned dairy farms improve their production, success and their bottom line.

Last Post: November and December Dairy Life Winners - 10/9/2011 1:30:00 PM
 

Ron was educated as a mathematics teacher, trained as a land use economist and has been involved with trading futures for more than 20 years.

Last Post: Economics - 8/15/2011 11:20:00 AM
 

Chore time for me isn't what it used to be when I was growing up on our eastern Iowa farm. In fact... I don't even have horse chores to do any more!

Last Post: Pro Farmer's Monday Morning Wake Up Call - 8/15/2011 3:35:00 AM
 

Bob Milligan, with Dairy Strategies, Inc., provides fool-proof techniques to optimize employee performance, satisfaction and longevity.

Last Post: Leading and Managing a Farm Business Today - 8/8/2011 7:59:00 AM
 

Emily is an up-and-coming outdoors person with plenty of experience in the outdoors. Her favorite hunts are for waterfowl and whitetail.

Last Post: Bringing Style to the Field - 8/3/2011 3:41:00 AM
 

Follow the Mobile Exhibit on its tour.

Last Post: Tractor Fascination! - 6/29/2011 5:32:00 AM
 

Here's an in-depth look at agricultural marketing.

Last Post: Marketing Toolbox: The ABC's of Marketing - 6/6/2011 6:04:00 AM
 

There is nothing better than living life on the ranch; a good workout on a horse, the sunrise over green pastures and working with cattle on a daily basis. Ranch life is hard work but totally worth it. Days spent on the ranch give me a lot of time to ruminate over current issues, new production methods, and hot topics in agriculture.  Read this blog for the latest Ranch Ruminations.

Last Post: Quality Beef Begins with Quality Animal Care - 4/20/2011 2:21:00 AM
 

The Dell family of Maryland is sharing their succession story with the readers of Farm Journal as part of the Farm Journal Legacy Project.

Last Post: Tribute to Tommy - 3/10/2011 1:22:00 AM
 

Dairy Today’s Dollars & Sense producer contributors tell it like it is on their dairies.

Last Post: Politics in Our Pocketbooks - 2/18/2011 5:43:00 AM
 

Noelle Taylor grew up in a small town in Iowa and has been a member of a CSA since 2006.

Last Post: Eating Seasonally - 2/15/2011 3:55:00 AM
 

Paul Nelson is a 30-year veteran of the Chicago commodity markets and member of the CME Group since 1986. Providing an elite client group ag risk management in livestock; grains; oil seeds and dairy  markets.

 

 

A seasoned ag communications professional, Rick Purnell is passionate about the positive impact farms and agribusiness have in rural and urban communities.

Last Post: Enhance Your Operation’s Identity - 1/28/2011 7:18:00 AM
 

This blog is all about celebrating America's farm families and learning more about what America's farmers provide for us every day.

Last Post: Webisode 2 - A leap of faith - 1/28/2011 4:48:00 AM
 

Todd has been training retrievers for field trials and hunting for 12 years and brings tremendous passion and knowledge to "Outdoors on the Farm."

Last Post: Fixing the 'Take-Away' Retrieve - 1/26/2011 6:51:00 AM
 

Thomas is an enthusiastic and accomplished outdoorsman himself. In the just the last three years, Tom has harvested multiple whitetail with shotgun slug, muzzleloader and bow.

Last Post: Glad I was in the timber on this day - 1/14/2011 9:17:00 AM
 

No wing shooting experience is complete without a four-legged hunting partner and Chip Flory’s dog Remington will be along for retrieving duties. Remington is a four-year-old black lab that hunts hard and retrieves like a mad man!

Last Post: Bummer... season is over - 1/14/2011 8:37:00 AM
 

A Closer Look

Last Post: Battered U.S. Dairies Face Uncertain Future - 12/27/2010 8:21:00 AM
 

For over twenty years, David owned and managed a private system of comprehensive clinical mental health clinics in rural Missouri and managed his family farm.

Last Post: Changes....Keeping Things Together - 11/28/2010 6:02:00 AM
 

Charlie O’Brien is the Vice President, Agricultural Services at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which is the North American-based international trade group representing the off-road equipment manufacturing industry.

Last Post: 44 Days Left to AG CONNECT in Atlanta - 11/23/2010 4:15:00 AM
 

Doug and Nancy Rupp farm 2,000 acres of corn and soybeans in northwest Ohio, near Stryker. The Rupps are progressive farm family operators who use marketing strategies, technology and teamwork to attain the on-going success of their farming enterprise. 

While Doug farms full time now, he taught business and free enterprise classes for 30 years at the local high school and community college and also ran a painting contracting business, all the while building his farming operation. At one point in his teaching career, Doug also coached the high school wrestling team.
 
Nancy was a teacher and guidance counselor for 39 years, and continues to work in the Pettisville, Ohio, school system part-time. In addition, she manages the farm finances.
 
In this blog, Nancy will chronicle their experiences as one of the Ultimate Farm Quest case study families.
 
Last Post: Tackling New Financial Software - 11/19/2010 7:16:00 AM
 

Leon Knirk, and his family, are one of the case study familes for the Ultimate Farm Quest. Learn about their experience.

Last Post: New Irrigation System Will Minimize Weather Factor - 11/19/2010 7:14:00 AM
 

Thornsberry is the owner and manager of TNT Cattle Co., a certified feeder calf preconditioning enterprise, as well as Avanco Feeds, a veterinary and nutrition firm that serves beef, dairy, swine and companion animal owners in central Missouri.

Last Post: Consistency is not necessarily Quality - 10/31/2010 8:20:00 PM
 

Linda Smith has been writing about risk management for some 30 years and tracking marketing advisers since 1992. In this blog, she’ll take a longer term view than adviser blogs and address questions about how the markets work and how to use various sales strategies and crop insurance in today’s environment.

Last Post: World Ending Stocks in Perspective - 10/28/2010 2:42:00 AM
 

Chet Esther farms in Beardstown, Ill., with his wife Lori and two sons Ryan and Chad. The Esther Family is in the process of transferring the family farm to the next generation and was chosen to participate in the Farm Journal Legacy Project.

Last Post: A Rainy Harvest Season - 9/24/2010 4:41:00 AM
 

Doug Hensley is President of Gorsuch-Hensley Real Estate & Auction, Inc., based in Canton, IL.

Last Post: Fall Land Sales & Rental Rates - 9/13/2010 2:48:00 AM
 

At the Farm Journal Media Marketing Rally, the best marketing minds in agriculture gather to provide producers analysis and advice. Attendees hear very different strategies from very different advisers and can take home multiple ways to improve your business.

Last Post: Speaker Spotlight: Mark Gold - 8/29/2010 5:48:00 AM
 

Kennedy and Coe, LLC is an accounting and consulting firm  based in Salina, Kan. A significant portion of the firm's staff and clientele is focused in the agriculture industry. This blog will feature their expert advice.

Last Post: Jim Collins' latest book - 8/6/2010 4:41:00 AM
 

Farmer Blog
Last Post: The Rewards of Diversification - 6/25/2010 6:57:01 PM
 

Farm Kids

Last Post: Girls Who Know Farming - 6/11/2010 6:11:35 AM
 

Mary K. Corp has been an Area Agronomist for Oregon State University in the inland wheat producing region of the Pacific Northwest for the past 12 years.

Last Post: Stripe Rust Problems Continue; Warm Weather Coming? - 6/9/2010 10:03:00 AM
 

Satya Banerji is an Internet publisher with a focus on the safe and judicious use of pesticides in India.

Last Post: Time to Sow - 5/30/2010 1:48:44 AM
 

Midwest Weather Update

 

Proud 4H Farm Girl

Last Post: I Am Agriculture Proud! - 4/13/2010 7:42:22 AM
 

A New Paradigm in Ag Research

Last Post: An Apology and the Inevitable Disclaimer - 4/10/2010 9:17:53 AM
 

Who's Reading Farm Journal?

Last Post: A Loyal Farm Journal Reader - 4/9/2010 6:00:22 AM
 

Commodity Worth Watching

Last Post: Ethanol Producer Margins are Waning - 3/25/2010 9:01:08 AM
 

WxRisk

 

Sound Off!

Last Post: Health Care Bill: The Morning After - 3/24/2010 6:12:05 AM
 

For the last 33 years, David has farmed in south Oxfordshire England UK – in partnership with his wife.

Last Post: Seasonality - 3/23/2010 7:20:07 AM
 

Outdoors on the Farm

Last Post: Big Bucks at the Missouri Deer Classic - 3/10/2010 9:51:50 AM
 

Farm Journal Reader Feedback

Last Post: Worried About Wind Energy - 2/7/2010 3:05:31 PM
 

Farm Friends

Last Post: Friendly 4-H Goat - 11/25/2009 6:49:13 AM
 

Beef Today Readers Respond

Last Post: Consumers Do Care - 11/18/2009 6:31:10 PM
 

MyBeefCheckoff Can
Last Post: Checkoff's Social Media Efforts - 10/20/2009 8:02:23 AM
 

Ag Options
Last Post: Old Crop/New Crop Corn 2010 - 10/3/2009 12:20:24 PM
 

Harvest Time 09
Last Post: Colorado and South Dakota harvest completed - 8/17/2009 11:11:43 AM
 


Storm Exchange
Last Post: The Goodnight Report for June 15, 2009 - 6/15/2009 11:31:23 AM
 

On the Outside Looking In
Last Post: Dirtiest Job - 5/27/2009 7:05:56 AM
 

Planalytics Weather
 

Pasture Comments
Last Post: May Pasture Comments - 5/8/2009 5:28:26 AM
 

Washington Insight
Last Post: Interview With Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) - 5/2/2009 3:31:06 AM
 

Machinery Doc
Last Post: Thanks for reading - 4/16/2009 2:30:29 PM
 


Planning to Grow
Last Post: Business plan you plan to use - 2/10/2009 12:23:29 PM
 

Top 25
By:
Top 25
Last Post: Highlights of the 2009 Top Producer Seminar - 1/30/2009 11:57:27 AM
 

Business Manager
Last Post: Business Management in Twenty-Five Years - 1/27/2009 7:30:04 AM
 

A Combiner's Daughter
Last Post: Homesick for Harvest - 1/23/2009 9:47:27 PM
 

John's World
 

Farm Journal Forum
Last Post: Complete Farm Journal Forum Coverage - 12/10/2008 2:16:07 AM
 

AgWeb Guest Column
 

Wheat and More...or Less

Last Post: Sometimes What You Want, You’ve Already Got - 12/1/2008 6:31:22 AM
 

AgEcon 101
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AgFreelancing
Last Post: Job Searching Done Differently - 9/29/2008 10:54:05 PM
 

Sorting It Out
Last Post: Money Flows Back Out of Commodities - 7/18/2008 8:03:10 AM
 

Bloggin' Beans
Last Post: Reality Check: Food, Feed and Fuel - 6/30/2008 6:05:58 AM
 

As the Sun Rises
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Common $en$e Farming
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Ag Industry Releases
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The Ag Community and the Health Care Crisis
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Ag: Boom & Gloom?
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Marketing Toolbox
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Field Agronomist
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Ultimate Farm Truck
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Exciting Opportunities
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From the Ridges of SW Minnesota
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Brock Perspective
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Syngenta

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Monsanto Company

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BHS Energy Press Releases
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CHS
By: CHS

CHS

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DuPont
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Truffle Media Networks Update

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Marketwise Strategy and Perspective

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Dow Agrosciences
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Positive Agriculture

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CNH Case New Holland

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BBI International Renewable Energy Industry News
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Bayer CropScience

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Wind Energy
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Plan before You Plant

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Schering-Plough Animal Health Corporation
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Deere & Company

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NFU
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AGCO
By: AGCO

AGCO

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Timm's Time
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test
By: test
test
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Transition from Hogs to What?

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Sur le départ !
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Great Plains - The Camelina Company

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SW Minnesota Farm Happenings
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Valent Corporation

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Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)

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Thoughts from the Back Forty

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Pioneer Hi-Bred

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BASF
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BASF

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Hedge Plus Weekly Update

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News from around the World

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test23reefe
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Sorry Yields


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North Mississippi Crops
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Steve is absolutely crazy for the outdoors and when he’s not making feed at a mill in Clarence, Iowa, you can probably find Steve sitting in a tree stand, a turkey blind, a flat-bottomed boat or on the bank of the Wapsipinicon River in eastern Iowa.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Learn the latest news from AGCO, your agriculture company.

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Farm Journal Foundation Chairman, Andy Weber's firsthand experience in writing.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Kip Tom, Indiana farmer, shares his travel diary from the Afghan countryside.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Photographer Lou Pierce captures the heart of Afghanistan in recounting his travels there.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

T-Storm Tom's blog is a brief review of current weather events and climate trends.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

The Brock Report has been helping farmers and agribusinesses make better marketing decisions for 25 years.

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Sharing expertise in ag risk management consultation and market advice.

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Boyce Thompson, AgWeb's editorial director, separates truth from conjecture in today's agricultural issues.

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With January shaping up to be the coldest month of the century so far, farmers are hit once again with uncertainties.  Uncertainties like:  Am I going to have enough propane to keep my turkeys and hogs warm?  Or to sanitize my milking equipment?  Can I get my propane? And how much will I have to pay for it?

Because of the frigid, record breaking temperatures covering much of the growing area propane has seen some crazy price increases in the last few days.  The price went from $1 to $5 and this has propane companies adjusting their prices twice daily.

Part of this shortage is not only due to cold weather but to an unusually wet harvesting season which had farmers using a lot of propane to dry their corn crops prior to storage.

It’s hard to believe in 2014 that once again the American farmer might just be left out in the cold.

 

Thoughts?  Questions? Want to complain?  Shoot me a tweet @tradethefarm, or just call 1-855-737-FARM.

 

 

 

 

There is a significant risk of loss in trading futures and options.  Futures trading is not appropriate for all investors.  Please read our full risk disclosure at www.tradethefarm.com

 

 

 

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Brian Teal is an Agriculture/Agribusiness and Commercial Banker for Five Star Bank in Northern California. He enjoys providing Ag related updates to his clients and the region he serves, as well as being involved in local and national related Ag events.

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

We're extremely excited to announce we've redesigned www.profarmer.com and added many new features to enhance our coverage of market and ag policy news that influences your farming operation. Your new website is scheduled to launch next week. To help make this transition go as smoothly as possible, we're transferring your usernames and passwords from the current site to the new platform. News page 4 of this week's Pro Farmer newsletter outlines some of the new features of the site. But the best way to learn about the new site will be to spend time navigating through it and familiarizing yourself with its many features.

If you haven't accessed the Pro Farmer website in the past but have an email associated with your account, you can click on "forgot password" under the "Log In" tab on the top right of the website. We'll then email you your login information. If you don't have an email associated with your account or if you experience problems, call the Pro Farmer office for assistance. I encourage everyone to visit the new Pro Farmer website to take advantage of this key Member benefit.

 

As for news... This is a time of year when news flow can be very heavy. Traders are focused on demand developments, weather, geo-political events and countless other happenings around the world. This is also a very busy time for you in the field, making it hard to keep up-to-date on the multitude of daily happenings. One of the many benefits of being a Pro Farmer Member is that we gather the news/events and present what's important to the markets and your farming operation in a concise and easy-to-read format via the weekly newsletter, daily electronic services and our website. We do the "heavy lifting" for you.

 

I know many of you are getting anxious to get fieldwork done. In some cases, some of you haven't turned a wheel yet. Unfortunately, the weather outlook isn't overly promising. The National Weather Service is calling below-normal temps across the eastern two-thirds of the country through May 8 (the latest update period as of Thursday afternoon). Above-normal precip is also expected across the eastern Corn Belt through this date. If this forecast is realized, corn planting will very likely remain below the five-year average pace into mid-May -- when the "optimal" window for corn planting starts to close. Last year proved corn planted after (even well after) mid-May can still produce favorable yields. But the later plantings push past the May 10-15 timeframe, the more important weather becomes at an after pollination. It also requires some extra time on the end of the growing season.

The other factor that comes into play with delayed plantings is acreage. Most thought March corn planting intentions were low. The deeper corn plantings extend into May, however, the less likely it becomes corn plantings will push above March intentions. But with that said, some central Corn Belt producers have already or are openly considering ramping up corn plantings. One of the many things the corn market must figure out over the coming weeks is how many corn acres will be seeded.

Be safe!

That's it for now...

... have a great weekend!

Follow me on Twitter at @BGrete

To join Pro Farmer, click here!

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

 

place positions

Tune into GrainTV as Logan and Cody break down why soybeans rallied back today, and why spring wheat has been showing relative strength in the grain complex.

Planning on planting this week? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to get live quotes on your mobile phone or tablet in the cab of the tractor!

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR FULL RISK DISCLOSURE AT WWW.GRAINHEDGE.COM

Last Post: - 12:00:00 AM
 

www.thehueberreport.com/freetrial

Wheat

Markets have picked up right were we left off on Friday.  December wheat has now pushed down into the same sub 5.00 level that the September contract reached last Friday at expiration. 

Saudi Arabia was active in the market over the weekend as they have purchased 610k MT of wheat in the world market.  I have yet to see the actual breakdown but I understand that it will be sourced from Europe, Australia and the United States. 

SovEcon, who is a private Russian Ag consultancy company, boosted their estimates for the overall Russia crops.  The total grain crop is expected to be in the 104 to 106 MMT range, which is up from their previous estimate of 98 MMT.  Of this total, wheat is projected to represent 60 MMT, which was up 2 MMT from their last estimate.  By no means is this a shocking revelation as these size numbers have been bounced around for some time now but it certainly does little to temper the negative psychology of the market.  In fact, it would seem that just about everywhere you turn right now you will uncover a bearish commodity story. 

If it is not about grains it will be about gold or energies or vegetable oils.  When I see information become so lopsided, my contrarian nature begins kick in and I begin to look for a reason as to why the majority could be wrong but unfortunately at this point, it is nearly impossible to find one, or at least one that could stem the negative outlook. 

It does not sound like the so-called peace in Ukraine will be able to be sustained much longer which could provide a little support. Other than that, we shall see what the weekly exports and harvest updates tell us throughout the day but lacking something really fresh, it would appear that prices will continue to drift lower for now.

Corn

It is indicative of just how weak a market is when there is a frost in parts of crop production areas and we do not even bat a bearish eye.  Granted, we do not know what or if any damages may have occurred and it represented a small portion of the production area but after the hype of the past couple weeks about an early freeze you might have though it would be worth a few clicks higher. 

This is indicative not only of the potential crop size that we are looking at this year but also the larger disillusion with commodities that is being experienced from the speculative/investment sector.  Hedge funds have reduced long holdings in Ag commodities to levels not seen since January and with the news at hand, it would appear that the exodus should continue. 

The USDA did announce a sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico this morning as they continue to be one of our most consistent buyers.  As the “M” in the MIST nations, they will be a country we need to count on and watch as a key consumer of US Ag products in the years ahead. 

It would appear that the great lakes region has moisture is store for the week ahead but temperatures across the entire upper Midwest are forecast to return to normal to above normal readings.  I saw that here in Northern Illinois we could reach into the low 80’s by the end of the week, which would be a full 25 degrees warmer than last Saturday. 

Evidently with the freeze story now in the rearview mirror, unless we turn excessively wet, most of the action will be centered on yield reports.  We could experience a week to 10 days of stable action but I suspect that as the calendar turns over into October, the competition will heat up again as to how large a crop estimate there can be made.

Soybeans

The bean market begin this new week under pressure but did not press through last weeks lows and have found a little buying now in the daylight hours.  There would appear to be little if anything in the news to stimulate much buying outside of uncertainly over possible frost damage to the north and if that is the case, I would not expect to see it carry very far. 

We will have the August crush number released later this morning with the trade expecting a figure of around 111.6 million bushels.  I guess not bad for a period when we were supposed to have run out of beans. 

Export inspections and weekly crop conditions will be released throughout the day buy I would expect either to be much of a market influence.  Ratings should be unchanged to possibly a smidge lower.

Like corn, we sit in a very oversold short-term position and could be in line for a week to 10-days of sideways to even higher action.  If correct, look for very stiff resistance in November beans back between 10.00 and 10.20. 

 
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Corn Stocks Up 50 Percent from September 2013
Soybean Stocks Down 35 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 2 Percent

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 
1.24 billion bushels, up 50 percent from September 1, 2013. Of the total 
stocks, 462 million bushels are stored on farms, up 68 percent from a year 
earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 774 million bushels, are up 42 percent from a 
year ago. The June - August 2014 indicated disappearance is 2.62 billion 
bushels, compared with 1.95 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 
92.0 million bushels, down 35 percent from September 1, 2013. Soybean stocks 
stored on farms totaled 21.3 million bushels, down 46 percent from a year 
ago. Off-farm stocks, at 70.6 million bushels, are down 30 percent from last 
September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2014 totaled 313 million 
bushels, up 6 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance 
data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 
2013 soybean production is revised to 3.36 billion bushels, up 69.2 million 
bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is revised up 307,000 acres 
to 76.8 million acres, and harvested area is revised up 384,000 acres to 76.3 
million acres. The 2013 yield, at 44.0 bushels per acre, is up 0.7 bushel 
from the previous estimate. A table with 2013 acreage, yield, and production 
estimates by States is included on page 17 of this report.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 1.91 billion 
bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 
722 million bushels, up 30 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 
1.19 billion bushels, are down 9 percent from a year ago. The 
June - August 2014 indicated disappearance is 711 million bushels, down 
28 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 60.2 million 
bushels, down 9 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 41.4 million 
bushels, are down 4 percent from September 1, 2013. Off-farm stocks totaled 
18.9 million bushels, down 20 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2014 
indicated disappearance of 18.4 million bushels is up 25 percent from the 
same period a year earlier.


Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 
34.0 million bushels, up 125 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 
1.95 million bushels, are up 223 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 
32.1 million bushels, are up 121 percent from September 1, 2013. The 
June - August 2014 indicated disappearance from all positions is 58.4 million 
bushels, up 125 percent from the same period a year ago.

 

Small Grains
2014 Summary

September 2014

All wheat production totaled 2.04 billion bushels in 2014, down 5 percent 
from the revised 2013 total. Area harvested for grain totaled 46.5 million 
acres, up 3 percent from the previous year. The United States yield is 
estimated at 43.8 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels from the previous year. 
The levels of production and changes from 2013 by type are winter wheat, 
1.38 billion bushels, down 11 percent; other spring wheat, 601 million 
bushels, up 12 percent; and Durum wheat, 57.1 million bushels, down 
2 percent.

Winter wheat: Winter wheat production for 2014 totaled 1.38 billion bushels, 
down 11 percent from the revised 2013 total. The United States yield, at 
42.6 bushels per acre, is down 4.7 bushels from 2013. Area harvested for 
grain is estimated at 32.3 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous 
year.

Planted acres were up from 2013 in most of the major Hard Red Winter (HRW) 
growing States. Particularly large acreage increases occurred in Colorado, 
Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Conversely, Oklahoma and Texas 
had large decreases in planted acres from the previous year. Harvested acres 
were up across the HRW region, with large increases in Colorado, Kansas, 
Montana, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. A record high yield is estimated in 
Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Nationally, HRW production totaled 
738 million bushels, down 1 percent from 2013.

In the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area, planted and harvested acreage 
decreases from 2013 were experienced throughout the region. Record high 
yields were realized in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. SRW production 
totaled 455 million bushels, down 20 percent from 2013.

White winter production totaled 184 million bushels, down 19 percent from the 
previous year. Harvested acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and 
Washington) was below what was harvested in 2013. Yields were also down from 
last year in all Pacific Northwest States.

Other spring wheat: Production for 2014 is estimated at 601 million bushels, 
up 12 percent from the revised 2013 total. Harvested area totaled 
12.8 million acres, up 13 percent from last year. The United States yield is 
estimated at 46.9 bushels per acre, down slightly from last year. Of the 
total production, 561 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, up 
14 percent from last year. Record high yields are estimated in the Dakotas.

By May 4, producers had sown 26 percent of the spring wheat crop, 
5 percentage points ahead of last year but 15 percentage points behind the 
5-year average. Following the trend of other small grains, planting progress 
started the month well behind normal but caught up to the 5-year average by 
the end of the month in most estimating States. Delays in planting progress 
were most evident in Minnesota and North Dakota, where producers were not 
able to make significant planting progress until mid-month. Nationally, 
producers had sown 88 percent of the spring wheat crop by June 1, 
eight percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. 
Forty-seven percent of the spring wheat was at or beyond the heading stage by 
July 6, six percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year 
average. Spring wheat progress remained well ahead of normal in the Pacific 
Northwest but behind the 5-year average pace in the Northern Great Plains. 
Thirty-eight percent of the spring wheat crop was harvested by August 31, 
twenty-three percentage points behind last year and 27 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. At the end of the month, spring wheat harvest in 
Minnesota was nearly 3 weeks behind the 5-year average.

Durum wheat: Production for 2014 is estimated at 57.1 million bushels, down 
2 percent from the revised 2013 total. Grain area harvested totaled 
1.37 million acres, up 3 percent from the previous year. The United States 
yield is estimated at 41.6 bushels per acre, down 1.7 bushels from 2013. 
Production in North Dakota, the largest Durum-producing State, is up 
4 percent from last year. A record high yield is estimated in South Dakota.

Due to excessive moisture this season, crop development has progressed 
significantly behind normal in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest 
Durum-producing States. As a result, harvest progress in North Dakota and 
Montana as of August 31 was well behind last year and the 5-year average.

Rye: Production for 2014 is estimated at 7.19 million bushels, down 6 percent 
from the revised 2013 total. Harvested area totaled 258,000 acres, down 
20,000 acres from 2013. The United States yield, at 27.9 bushels per acre, is 
up 0.5 bushel from the previous year. Drier weather conditions in the 
Southern Great Plains and the Southeast led to decreases in harvested acres 
from a year earlier.

 


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 COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain production is raised this month as higher forecast corn production more than offsets a reduction for sorghum and the lower estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2014 Summary.  Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a record 14,475 million bushels as lower reported area is more than offset by a 2.5-bushel-per-acre increase in the yield.  Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 15,736 million bushels, up 129 million from last month reflecting both higher production and a 55-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks from the September Grain Stocks report.  Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels with tighter corn supplies in Canada.

Projected U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is raised 50 million bushels on higher expected feed and residual disappearance driven by the larger crop, higher projected meat production, and the lower price outlook.  Corn ending stocks are raised 79 million bushels to 2,081 million.  The projected range for the season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.

Projected sorghum supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 12 million bushels as a 26-million-bushel reduction in forecast production more than outweighs higher beginning stocks as reported in the Grain Stocks report.  Exports are projected 20 million bushels higher on strong demand from China.  Domestic use is projected 40 million bushels lower as export demand makes sorghum less competitive in ethanol production and for domestic feeding.  The sorghum season-average farm price range is projected 5 cents lower on each end to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.  The 2014/15 season-average farm prices for barley and oats are raised based on prices reported to date and the tighter supply situation projected for both this month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.0 million tons higher with a small reduction in beginning stocks more than offset by a 3.2-million-ton increase in world production.  Global corn production is raised 3.2 million tons with increases for EU and the United States partly offset by reductions for FSU.  EU corn production is raised 2.7 million tons with increases in a number of countries based on the latest data and harvest results.  Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.5 million tons each for Belarus and Russia, also on the latest harvest results, which reflect the impact of hot, dry, late summer growing conditions.  Global barley production is higher with increases for EU and FSU offsetting a reduction for Australia.  EU mixed grain increases add to world coarse grain supplies.  Foreign sorghum and millet production are lowered with reductions for India and several Sub-Saharan Africa countries. 

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly due to increased corn use in the United States.  Corn feed use is also increased for Egypt and Iran with higher imports this month.  Sorghum feed use is raised for China, also with higher imports.  Global sorghum consumption, however, declines with lower production and food use for Sub-Saharan Africa and lower U.S. domestic use.  Barley consumption is raised with higher feed use in China and EU.  Global corn trade is lowered this month, mostly reflecting a 3.0-million-ton reduction in expected imports by EU.  Exports are lowered for Canada and Russia.  Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 0.7 million tons higher with larger stocks in the United States.

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 44 million bushels as increased production is more than offset by higher feed and residual disappearance and higher exports.  Production for 2014/15 is raised 5 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains 2014 Summary.  Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and Hard Red Winter wheat are raised 32 million bushels and 9 million bushels, respectively.  Reductions in the other three classes are partially offsetting.  Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels on higher-than-expected sales for HRS and Soft Red Winter wheat.  The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low end to $5.55 to $6.25 per bushel. 

Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.3 million tons with increased production offsetting lower beginning stocks.  World production is raised 1.2 million tons led by a 3.0-million-ton increase for EU and 0.5-million-ton increases for both Pakistan and Ukraine.  Decreases are led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Algeria, 0.5-million-ton reductions for both Australia and Canada, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Argentina.  Changes for Northern Hemisphere countries reflect updated harvest reports and government statistics.  For the Southern Hemisphere, Australia is lowered on continued dryness in portions of the southeast and Argentina is lowered on wet conditions that have limited planting. 

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.1 million tons to a record 714.1 million reflecting both higher food and feed use.  Global wheat trade is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons to 156.0 million.  The largest increase is 2.0 million tons for EU due to the larger crop.  Mexico exports are raised 0.5 million tons on large durum supplies and strong international demand.  Offsetting decreases are made for Kazakhstan (down 1.0 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Argentina (down 0.3 million tons) on smaller crops.  Projected consumption rises faster than supplies lowering global ending stocks 3.8 million tons to 192.6 million.  

RICE:  U.S. all rice production in 2014/15 is forecast at 220.7 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month with the increase entirely due to higher yield.  The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,584 pounds per acre, up 83 pounds from last month.  Yields are raised in Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas.  All rice harvested area is unchanged at 2.91 million acres.  Both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are raised from last month, with long-grain production projected at 160.0 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 60.7 million.  The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 21.0 million cwt.  Total use is projected at 233.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month with domestic and residual use at 131.0 million and exports at 102.0 million.  All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2011/12.

The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.70 to $18.70 per cwt, up 45 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range.

Global rice 2014/15 ending stocks are reduced as the decline in total supplies exceed the fall in total use.  The drop in global 2014/15 rice production resulted in a decline in total supplies, despite an increase in beginning stocks.  Beginning stocks are increased 0.5 million tons due mostly to increases in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  World 2014/15 rice production is projected at 475.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, and a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last year’s record crop.  The fall in production is due mostly to a 1.0-million-ton decrease in India’s crop to 102.0 million tons, due to a decline in average yield.  Below normal seasonal rains during the 2014 monsoon season in some regions of India were unfavorable for rice production.  Rice crops are also reduced in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and several Sub-Saharan African countries.  Global consumption is reduced slightly, but is still a record at 481.7 million tons, up 5.6 million tons from 2013/14.  Global trade for 2014/15 is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month, and 6.2 million below 2013/14.  The decline in world ending stocks is due mostly to a decrease in India of 1.0 million tons.  Forecast ending stocks are also lowered for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, partially offset by increases for Brazil, the Philippines, and the United States.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 116.3 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month.  Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,927 million bushels, up 14 million with improved yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area.  The soybean yield is projected at 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from September.  Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 83.4 million.  Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 24 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks from the Grain Stocks report more than offsetting increased production.  Canola, sunflower, and cottonseed production are forecast lower this month while peanut production is forecast slightly higher. 

U.S. soybean exports and crush for 2014/15 are unchanged this month.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, down 25 million on reduced supplies.  Prices for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are unchanged.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 528.4 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production more than offset reduced sunflowerseed and rapeseed production.  Global soybean production is projected at 311.2 million tons, up 0.1 million.  Small reductions in soybean production for China and Russia partly offset increases for the United States and EU.  Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is increased to a record 23.5 million tons for EU.  Global sunflowerseed production is reduced on lower estimates for both Argentina and Russia.  Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.

Global oilseed stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 103.6 million, a 29 percent increase from 2013/14.  Oilseed stocks are virtually unchanged from last month as lower rapeseed stocks in Canada offset an increase in soybean stocks.  Higher soybean stocks in Argentina offset a reduction in the United States.

SUGAR:  U.S. 2013/14 sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports are reduced by 72,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on end of year reporting by the U.S. Customs Service.  Imports from Mexico are decreased by 12,000 STRV to 2.124 million with almost all import data in for the fiscal year.  Texas cane sugar production is reduced by 2,000 STRV based on revised processor data.  Ending stocks for 2013/14 are reduced by 86,000 STRV to 1.810 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use of 14.5 percent.  For 2014/15, imports from Mexico are increased by 461,000 STRV to 1.549 million.  Beet sugar production is increased 170,000 STRV to 4.970 million based on analysis of National Agricultural Statistics Service data.  Cane sugar is reduced 19,000 STRV to 3.572 million based on processors’ reporting.  As a residual, ending stocks are increased by 526,000 STRV to 1.554 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.8 percent, up 4.3 percentage points over last month.

For Mexico in 2013/14, imports are reduced by 96,000 metric tons (MT), all of which were intended for Mexico’s re-export program (IMMEX) for sugar-containing products.  In a mostly parallel adjustment in use, deliveries to the IMMEX are reduced by that same 96,000 MT, plus 10,000 MT from reductions in domestic sourcing, based on pace to date.  Deliveries for consumption are reduced by 50,000 MT after a fall-off in late season domestic shipments.  Total deliveries are, therefore, decreased by 156,000 MT.  Based on U.S. import data, exports to the United States are decreased by 11,000 MT. Based on adjustments to data, exports to non-U.S. destinations are increased by 1,000 MT (681,000 total) and production is increased by 1,000 MT (6.021 million total).  These changes imply ending stocks at 685,000 MT, for a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 16.5 percent. 

For 2014/15, total Mexico supply is increased by 71,000 MT in beginning stocks.  Deliveries for consumption are decreased by 52,000 MT in line with the reduction made for 2013/14.  Ending stocks are still forecast at 22 percent of consumption for an 11,000 MT reduction to 936,000 MT.  Because total exports are forecast as a residual, their change is equal to the sum of the other changes (positive for supply, negative for use), or 134,000 MT, for a total of 1.650 million.  Exports to non-U.S. destinations based on contracts are reduced by 260,000 MT to 325,000.  FEESA, the entity which runs the nine government-owned mills in Mexico, announced that it had renegotiated one earlier contract and is committed to export 40,000 MT instead of the earlier negotiated 300,000 MT.  As a consequence, exports to the United States are residually calculated at 1.325 million MT, up 394,000 MT.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month.  For both 2014 and 2015, the increase in beef production is driven by heavier carcass weights as lower corn prices encourage producers to market heavier cattle.  Pork production in 2014 is reduced from last month as slower gains in carcass weights in the second half of the year more than offset higher expected fourth-quarter slaughter.  For 2015, the production forecast is raised.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the decline in third-quarter pigs per litter was less than during the first half of the year.  With higher indicated farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 and into 2015, and slightly more rapid forecast recovery in pigs per liter, it is expected that a greater number of hogs will be available for slaughter during 2015.  Increased pork production will also be supported by higher carcass weights.  Broiler productions for 2014 is unchanged, but lower forecast feed costs are expected to encourage more rapid production growth in 2015.  Turkey production for 2014 is slightly higher based on production data to date; however, the production forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Egg production is raised for both 2014 and 2015, reflecting revisions to table egg production estimates. 

Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are unchanged from last month.  Beef exports for 2014 are lowered based on recent trade data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Pork imports are unchanged for 2014, but are reduced for 2015 as U.S. production is forecast higher and prices lower.  Pork exports are forecast higher on strong demand in 2014 and more competitive prices in 2015.  Broiler exports are raised for 2014 on current strength of demand, but the 2015 forecast is unchanged.  Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015.  

The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  The hog price forecast for 2014 is unchanged, but the 2015 price is lowered on larger supplies.  The broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on robust demand.  The turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  The egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged. 

The milk production forecast for 2014 is reduced from last month on slower growth in milk per cow.  However, for 2015, the production forecast is raised as growth in output per cow is expected higher with relatively lower-priced feed.  Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered as U.S. dairy prices are less competitive, but import forecasts are raised as relatively high U.S. prices encourage larger imports. The trade forecasts for 2015 are unchanged.

Butter, cheese, and whey prices for 2014 are raised from last month as domestic demand continues to support prices.  Prices of these products are unchanged for 2015.  However, the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are reduced as U.S. prices are expected to decline to increase the competitiveness of NDM exports.  The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese and whey prices, but is unchanged for 2015.  The Class IV price is raised for 2014 as higher butter prices more than offset the decline in NDM prices, but for 2015, the lower forecast NDM price results in a lower Class IV price.  The all milk price is raised to $24.10 to $24.20 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $18.95 to $19.85 per cwt.

COTTON:  The 2014/15 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, ending stocks, and prices.  Production is reduced 283,000 bales to nearly 16.3 million.  The disappearance forecasts are unchanged.  The export forecast remains at 10.0 million bales, despite lower expected foreign imports, as demand for U.S. cotton is likely to be sustained.  The range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered to 55 to 65 cents per pound; the midpoint of 60 cents per pound is reduced 4 cents on sharply lower recent prices, which followed announcements by the government of China indicating a more restrictive import policy.

Global 2014/15 stocks are raised about 800,000 bales this month to 107 million, owing to higher beginning stocks, as increases for production and consumption are about offsetting.  Production is raised 1.4 million bales, including increases for China, India, and Pakistan, which are partly offset by reductions for Brazil, the United States, Australia, and Zimbabwe.  Forecast consumption by China is raised 1.5 million bales as mills there are expected to reduce yarn imports in favor of spinning domestic cotton.  Consumption also is raised for Indonesia, due to changes in the historical estimates series, and Vietnam, but is reduced for India.  World trade is reduced about 800,000 bales on lower imports by China.  Forecast stocks for India are raised sharply from last month due to a combination of higher production and lower offtake.  With China’s stocks now projected to fall by 550,000 bales from last season, stocks outside of China are expected to rise 17 percent year-on-year to about 45 million bales.  

World stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.0 million bales, due mainly to higher production estimates for China and Brazil.  The China production estimate is raised 750,000 bales consistent with increased estimates of cotton which entered the national reserve.

 


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Paul is now part of the fourth generation in America that is involved in farming and hopes the next generation will be involved also. Through his blog he provides analysis and insight to farmer tax questions.

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Commodity Outlook: Grain Thoughts

by Sean Lusk
October 15, 2014
 
I will cover supply side fundamentals first with Monday’s crop progress report. Corn harvest was 24% complete down from the five-year average of 43%. Crop condition came in unchanged at 74% good to excellent condition. Soybeans harvested were 40% versus the five-year average of 53% and condition at 73% good to excellent unchanged on the week.

The crop is far enough along that we do not expect the condition of either to change by more than 4%. The condition is no longer looked at for trading direction. The USDA reported that for the week ending October 9, the US shipped out 39.0 million bushels (mb) of corn, 52.4 mb of soybeans, and 16.1 mb of wheat. The US has a good chance of exporting a record tonnage of soybeans during October with China the big buyer. US corn and soybean exports to date are well above last year and on pace to reach USDA’s annual forecasts.

Fund short covering has been significant the first two days of this week in soybeans and corn. Soybeans and corn leapt to their highest price in three weeks which triggered fund buy stops along the way. US farmers sidelined by all of the rain in the past 48 hours are anxious to get back into the fields.

The midday forecast offers improved harvest weather thru October 26. The warmer and drier weather looks to facilitate a more active harvest pace. It is possible yet to retest the lows made last week or even make new lows before the month is over. If the recent lows hold it will be because of the weather. Early frosts and continued harvest delays combined with the fact that harvest is already well behind five and 10-year averages. This is usually due to weather problems leading to thoughts of production declines. Bulls may use this weather concern to buy breaks in the market supporting recent lows.

In looking at harvest production we see soybeans moving out of the field faster than corn as beans are where the profits are for farmers.

Our contention is that with a 68 percent increase in corn storage and carry from last year farmers will simply hold the corn and wait for higher prices to sell leaving end users, ethanol producers, and sweeteners to bid up the cash price in search for the physical.

The Trade
Therefore I propose the following trade. If March corn futures retrace back to the $3.60 level on a retracement later in the week, look at buying the March corn 390 calls for 9 cents or in cash value $450.00. The risk on the trade is the price paid for the option plus all commission and fees. I look for corn to see a post harvest bounce continuation bounce and challenge the 4.00 level later this year.

Webinar
Walsh Trading’s Senior Grain analyst Tim Hannagan hosts a free grain webinar each week. Tim has been ranked the #1 grain analyst in the United States per Reuters and Bloomberg for his most accurate price predictions for soybeans and corn in the years 2011 and 2012. 
Registration is free and if you cannot attend live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup. If you would like to receive a weekly invitation to our Webinars, please Subscribe and select Webinar Announcements and Recordings. Register now for Tim's weekly grain webinar on Friday, October 17th at 2:00 PM CST.

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS. 
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Horses & Cattle grazing together Forages are the backbone of equine nutrition. There are 3 major forms of forage available to horses: legumes, grasses, and small grain hays. More than half of the hay grown in the USA are legumes such as clover & alfalfa. Other legumes forages that can be fed are birdsfoot trefoil, vetch, and rhizomal peanut hay. Clover is often found in horses pastures and grazed directly. There are many varieties of clover including alsike, white, crimson, red, ladino, and sweet clover. I like Ladino/Red clover. Legumes are known by livestock producers for their higher nutritional value than just grass pastures and small grain hays. Feeding legumes can be an excellent way to balance a horse's diet especially during those times of increased needs for these nutrients like the latter phases of pregnancy, lactation, growth and the soon to be upon us Polar vortex of a winter. Because of it's greater energy density, legumes can be the chief forage for hard working horses. A grass-legume pasture can produce enough protein, vitamins and minerals to meet the maintenance requirements of most adult horses. Lactating mares, growing horses and work horses usually need additional energy in the form of some sort of grain/sweet feed. Horse pastures differ in several respects from cattle pastures, although most principles of establishing and fertilizing forages developed for cattle pastures also apply to horse pastures. At least two acres per mature horse are needed to develop a pasture system that will furnish adequate feed, exercise space and conditions to control internal parasites. In addition to using de-worming treatments to control parasites, horses should be rotated among pastures just like cattle. Rotating horses from pasture to pasture is the simplest and cheapest method of parasite control. Change pastures every 2-3 weeks. If rotation is not possible, mow frequently or graze closely with cattle. If at all possible, combine cattle and horses to maintain a balance between grasses and legumes. Horses tend to graze in spots consequently undergrazing and overgrazing the forages. Cattle will graze the otherwise wasted feed. It’s a win-win for the busy farmer or rancher. If cattle and horses are grazed together, pasture clipping usually is eliminated, and it is easier to control parasites and maintain a balance between grasses and legumes. Cattle and horses may be grazed together simultaneously or rotated with one following the other. Cattle don't have the same intestinal parasites as horses, nor are horses bothered by cattle parasites. They can graze around each other's droppings without becoming infested. Supplements: I recently contacted Kathleen Crandell, Ph.D., a longtime nutritionist with Kentucky Equine Research (KER). I asked her: “Is there a mineral block manufacturer that produces a block that is safe to put out for beef cattle and horses in a common feeder?” Dr. Crandell's answer: Plain white salt blocks are safe and enjoyed by both cows and horses. The classic red trace mineral block formulated for cows is not dangerous for horses; it just doesn't have enough of the trace minerals to balance a forage-only diet in a horse. There are many other types of mineral blocks that are made for cattle that are not suitable for horses (e.g., medicated, protein, phosphorus, or sulfur blocks, to name a few). If the mineral block is needed to balance the mineral nutrition of both the horse and the cow's forage-only diet, it is going to be difficult to find one that suits both species since they have different requirements. However, if the horse is getting the mineral nutrition from somewhere else in the diet (e.g., a concentrate feed), then offering either the white, natural salt rocks, or trace mineral red salt blocks is fine. Horses are selective grazers, overgrazing their favorite areas of a pasture while leaving other plants to grow tall. This creates piles of manure. If you add another species that prefers different plants, you can overcome the problem of inefficient forage use. Keep in mind, however, that if a pasture is already overgrazed, multiple species might do more harm than good. The pasture will remain overgrazed, which forces animals to graze closer to their own feces, leading to higher parasite loads. When managing a multi-species system you need to understand the plants, soils, and animals differences. A lot of “horse people” don't even know that ruminants have no top incisors. Cattle eat grass by grasping it with the tongue and breaking it off, they cannot graze grass as low to the ground as horses do, and won't graze a pasture bare if left on it too long. Pastured horses that get no grain, are at healthy body weights, and have normal metabolisms are at a low risk for digestive problems. However, the risk increases as horses are stalled, fed grain, put in exercise programs, trailered to events and competitions, given varying types of hay, or subjected to any type of stress.
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