Sep 2, 2014
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Farmland Forecast

RSS By: Marc Schober, AgWeb.com

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

WASDE: Record Corn Crop Remains Predicted

Jun 12, 2014

Domestic corn balance sheets were unchanged this month as reports continue to favor a record crop this year. Favorable planting and growing weather at the end of May and beginning of June have operators optimistic for the upcoming crop. U.S. corn yields are expected to average 165.3 bushels per acre, breaking the 2009 record of 164.7.

The unchanged corn report comes to no surprise as the USDA has not amended their production or yield estimates in the month of June for several decades. The combination of the release of the June 30th Quarterly Grain Stocks report and the amount of time until harvest leaves many variables inhibiting an accurate estimate.

Corn

U.S. corn production for the 2014/15 crop season was estimated at a record 13.935 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Corn yield estimates also remained unchanged at a record 165.3 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous record of 164.7 in 2009. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for corn was unchanged at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, compared to $4.45 to $4.65 per bushel for 2013/14.

Increased estimates of corn production in Brazil and India for 2013/14 increased beginning stocks for the 2014/15 season. 2014/15 global corn production was raised 2.0 million tons due to increases from Russia, European Union, and Ukraine.

Soybeans

The 2014/15 U.S. ending soybean stocks were decreased 5 million bushels to 325 million. The 2013/14 ending stocks were also decreased 5 million bushels to 125 million. The reduction in ending stocks primarily reflects an increase in soybean crush usage. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for soybeans was unchanged at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel.

Wheat

Due to an expected reduction in the 2014/15 U.S. winter wheat production from poor crop conditions, total wheat production was decreased from 1.963 billion bushels to 1.942 billion bushels. Exports for the 2014/15 marketing year were reduced 25 million bushels due to tighter supplies and stronger global competition. Ending U.S. stocks for 2014/15 were increased 34 million bushels to 574 million. The 2014/15 all wheat average price range was lowered 30 cents on both ends of the range to $6.35 to $7.65 per bushel.

World wheat supplies for the 2014/15 marketing year were increased 4.1 million tons due to increased foreign production. World production is estimated at 701.6 million tons, a 4.6 ton increase. Primary increases were from Russia, India, European Union, and China.

Outlook

A record corn crop is being predicted for the upcoming season, but any shift in weather conditions could change the outlook. Crop conditions early in the season are not always fair indicators for yields in October. Looking back to the 2012 crop year, when operators planted their crop in record fashion and predicted a large crop, farmers were hit with a major drought in early July that decreased yields significantly.

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