Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.
WASDE: Yields Increase Due to Favorable Weather
Nov 08, 2013
Average U.S. corn yields increased over five bushels per acre in the November WASDE report from the September WASDE. The average U.S. corn yield is only 4.3 bushels behind the 2009/10 record of 164.7 bushels per acre. Despite a wet spring, late planting, and drought like weather during key growing months, an extended growing season revived the corn crop. The increase in exports for corn and soybeans was not enough for the increased production.
The USDA forecasted 2013/14 U.S. corn production 146 million bushels higher than the September report to a record 13.989 billion bushels. The corn yield forecast for this year was increased by 5.1 bushels per acre to 160.4 bushels per acre; this more than offset the 1.9 million acre reduction in harvested acres.
Corn supplies for the 2013/14 marketing year are projected at a record 14.837 billion bushels, an increase of 307 million bushels, due to the increase in production. Corn use increased 275 million bushels to fight off some of the supply increase. U.S. corn exports increased 175 million bushels due to a supply glut and low prices.
U.S. ending corn stocks for 2013/14 were increased by 32 million bushels, to 1.887 billion. The season average corn price for 2013/14 was decreased 30 cents at both ends of the range to $4.10 to $4.90. Global course grain supplies for 2013/14 was increased by 20.6 million tons due to higher production and a decrease in consumption.
U.S. average soybean yields in 2013/14 were increased by 1.8 bushels per acre from September's report, to 43.0 bushels. Production for the 2013/14 year was increased by 109 million bushels to 3.258 billion bushels, more than offsetting the reduction in harvested acres of 0.7 million.
Soybean ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were projected up 20 million bushels, to 170 million on increased production. Exports were increased by 80 million bushels to 1.45 billion due to the record pace of sales in October. The projected season average price range for 2013/14 was $11.15 to $13.15 per bushel, a decrease of 30 cents on both ends of the range.
U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 were increased by 26 million bushels due to higher than expected production and increased imports. U.S. wheat production was increased 14 million bushels in the September 30th Small Grains report. Imports were estimated 10 million bushels higher due to increased supplies in Canada.
Feed and residual use was increased 30 million bushels from the September 1 stocks report. The season average wheat price for 2013/14 was estimated at $6.70 to $7.30 per bushel, narrowed by 20 cents on each end of the range.
Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 were decreased by 0.8 million tons due to a reduction in global output.
Analysts, farmers, investors, and agriculture gurus alike were excited for their beloved WASDE as it came off its one month hiatus due to the government shutdown. This report showcased production vs. exports, and production won this round, but exports are heating up. We will keep a keen eye on exports and the end of harvest in the coming month.