Gulke''s Latest Supply/Demand Estimates

August 3, 2009 07:00 PM
 

The following information is bonus material from Top Producer. It corresponds with the "Market Strategy" column by Jerry Gulke. Hedge Your Operating Credit” by Linda Smith. You can find the article on page 20 in the Summer 2009 issue.


  USDA SMS1 SMS2
Planted acres (mil) 87 25 25
Harv. acres (mil) 80.1 78.4 78.4
Yield (bu./acre) 153.4 153.4 156.5
Carrin (Sept. 1) 1,770 1,770 1,820
Production 2,291 12,021 12,264
Imports 15 15 15
Total supply 14,076 13,806 14,099
Feed & resid. 5,200 5,200 5,200
Food/seed/ind. 5,375 5,375 5,378.5
Ethanol fuel 4,100 4,100 4,100
Dom. use 10,575 10,575 10,575
Exports 1,950 1,950 1,900
Total use 15,525 12,525 12,475
Carryout (Aug. 30) 1,551 1,281 1,624
Stocks/use 12.4% 10.2% 13.0%
Farm price 3.35-4.15 3.35-4.15 3.30

 
SMS1 is using SMS acreage but USDA's July yield. SMS2 is using SMS acreage but better yield, warranted by weather so far and assuming no early frost.
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