Seasonal Soybean Charts
February 23, 2010
By: Sara Schafer
, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
The following information is a Web Extra from the pages of Farm Journal. It corresponds with the article "Use Soybean Seasonal Patterns” by Linda Smith. You can find the article on page 20 in the Mid-February 2010 issue.
There's a 60% chance of a seasonal price rally between March 1 and July 6, based on the past 10 years, according to Moe Agostino, commodity strategist for Farms.com Risk Management. "Looking at the seasonal soybean chart, you can see that historically, soybeans are relatively flat until mid-February into March, when they rally until late June before falling off through July. Comparing both corn and soybeans, only one year in the past 10 has provided a harvest rally for both corn and soybeans."
A table showing the date of the high closing price for the year indicates it's tough to pinpoint, however.
This year, it could be tough for soybeans to make much of a rally, given ample stocks and the huge South American crop that has just begun to move. However, Top Producer's favorite weather watchers see the chance for another cool, wet spring, which might catch traders' attention. On the other hand, 2009 results suggest that today's crops post excellent yields under those conditions. Balanced out, marketing advisers favor sales on rallies above $9.50.
- Mid-February 2010