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AgDay Daily Recap -June 17, 2014

June 17, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JUNE 17, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - A NEW USDA REPORT SHOWS THE NATION'S CROPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE IN FIELDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.    IN AGRIBUSINESS…THE BEARS ARE BACK. THERE ARE SEASONAL TIMES OF YEAR WHERE YOU CAN BE VERY AGGRESSIVE BEAR AND VERY COMFORTABLE AND THERE ARE TIMES WHERE YOU GOT TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE.   PLUS, WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN CALIFORNIA.   AND THIS MISSOURI MAN IS MAKING IT HIS LIFES WORK SOLVING TURF TROUBLE.
CROP PROGRESS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. A NEW CROP PROGRESS REPORT IS OUT AND SOME MARKET ANALYSTS ARE SAYING THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST CORN CROPS IN FIVE YEARS….AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
LEININGER FARM:
AS JOE LEININGER'S SPARYER ROLLS OUT TO THE FIELD, HE KNOWS HE HAS A BUSY WEEK AHEAD. I'M GOING TO BE RUNNING THE SPRAYER ALL WEEK LONG JUST TO TRY AND GET SOME WEEDS OUT OF THE BEANS AND START SPRAYING SOME SEED CORN TODAY AS WELL. COMBATTING WEEDS HAS BEEN A BIG PROBLEM THIS YEAR. THAT'S BECAUSE ONE THING HAS BEEN CONSTANT ON THESE SANDY SOILS-- RAIN.   THERE ARE SOME SPOTS OUT THERE THAT HAVE GOTTEN TOO WET. WE'RE SEEING OME YELLOW CORN, SOME YELLOW BEANS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, IN OUR LOCATION, LOOKS GREAT TODAY. THE START TO SPRING WASN'T SO SMOOTH. COLD, DAMP CONDITIONS POSTPONED A LOT OF WORK. THE WINTER KIND OF DRUG ON AND POSTPONED US FROM GETTING GINT HE FIELDS AND GETTING THIGNS PLANTED TO GET AN EARLIER START THAN TYPICALLY WHAT WE LIKE.   LEININGER SAYS THAT MEANT A LOT OF CATCH-UP THIS SPRING. LONG HOURS, LONGER DAYS, WORK THROUGH THE WEEKENDS. BUT WITH ONLY A FEW DAYS LEFT OF SIDE DRESSING NITROGEN ON HIS CORN, AND A GOOD MIX OF RAIN AND SUNSHINE THE PAST MONTH, HIS OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR REMAINS STRONG. I HOPE IT JUST DOESN'T DRY OFF WE REALLY LIKE THE HEAT, BUT HOPEFULLY NOT TOO HOT. AS LONG AS THE RAIN KEEPS SHOWING UP, I'LL BE HAPPY WITH THT. I'LL TAKE ANY CONDITIONS AS LONG AS WE GET THE WATER. FROM MISHAWKA, INDIANA, I'M TYNE MORGAN FOR AGDAY.
CROP PROGRESS:
IN THE WEEKLY CROP PROGRESS REPORT, USDA SHOWS 76-PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CORN IS RATED AS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S UP ONE POINT FROM LAST WEEK. 97-PERCENT HAS EMERGED. SOYBEANS ARE 73-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A POINT DOWN… 83-PERCENT HAS EMERGED, SIX POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE. NOW TO THE SOUTH - LOOKING AT COTTON ONLY ABOUT HALF IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. RICE -IS 69-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WINTER WHEAT HARVEST REACHED 16-PERCENT, FOUR PIONTS BEHIND. KANSAS WHEAT HARVEST IS NOW UNDERWAY WITH TWO PERCENT IN THE BIN. BUT IT'S USUALLY 19-PERCENT BY NOW.
NEBRASKA DAMAGE:
FATHER'S DAY KEPT MANY FATHERS - AND OTHER FAMILY MEMBERS - BUSY AFTER POWERFUL STORMS MOVED ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE STORM BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND TORNADOES.
CROP WATCH:
CLINTON… I WAS IN NEW MEXICO LAST WEEK VISITING THE FAMILY. AND I CAN TELL YOU FIRST HAND HOW MUCH BETTER THINGS LOOK AFTER GETTING SOME RECENT RAIN. IT'S STILL PLENTY DRY IN THE SUBSOIL. BUT IT'S BETTER. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS SOME VISUAL PROOF IN CROPWATCH. GOOD MORNING MIKE.
CALI WILDFIRES:
IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA A WILDFIRE IS BURNING MOSTLY OUT OF CONTROL IN AND AROUND THE SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST. POWERFUL WINDS ARE FANNING THE WILDFIRE NAMED "SHIRLEY' IT'S ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAKERSFIELD, THE FIRST STARTED FRIDAY. FIREFIGHTERS SAY THE WINDS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC SO THAT'S MAKING IT TOUGH TO GET AHEAD OF THE FIRE. MORE THAN ELEVEN-HUNDRED FIREFIGHTERS ARE BATTLING THE BLAZE IN STEEP, RUGGED TERRAIN.
SALMON DROUGHT:
IN PARCHED CALIFORNIA, YOUNG CHINOOK SALMON ARE HITTING THE ROAD - NOT THE RIVER - TO GET TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. TERRY CHEA TELLS US ABOUT THE ANNUAL MIGRATION THAT'S "DETOURED" BECAUSE OF DROUGHT.
DTR T TIP:
AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK IS IN EUROPE THIS WEEK DISCUSSING THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP...OR T-TIP.
HE SAYS SO FAR THE TRIP HAS ALLLOWED FOR FRANK DISCUSSIONS WITH HIS COUNTERPARTS INCLUDING TALKS ON BIOTECHNOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATORS.
DTR UTTERBACK:
MEANWHILE DAIRY PRICES CONTINUE TO BE STRONG. IN VERMONT, APRIL MILK PRICES SET A RECORD FOR PRODUCERS THERE. PRICES AVERAGED 24 DOLLARS PER HUNDRED.
WITH CORN PRICES CONTINUING TO FALL, FEED BUYERS ARE STARTING TO THINK ABOUT LOCKING IN MARGINS.
 TEASE:
BOB WILL RETURN WITH MORE IN JUST A MOMENT. HE AND FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL WILL DISCUSS HOW THE BEARS ARE REACTING TO THE RECENT GRAIN MARKET'S BEARISH TONE.
AGDAY REOPEN:
YOU ARE WATCHING AGDAY - HOSTED BY CLINTON GRIFFITHS, NATIONAL REPORTER TYNE MORGAN, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL AND METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. AGDAY THE COUNTRY EXPERIENCE.>AGDAY REOPEN:
ANAYLSIS INTRO:
DECEMBER CORN FUTURES HAVE FALLEN NEARLY 70 CENTS SINCE POSTING IT'S LAST HIGH IN EARLY MAY. THAT DROP HAS MARKETERS IN A BEARISH MOOD. WELL THERE'S NO BIGGER BEAR THAN FARM JOURNAL ECONOMIST BOB UTTERBACK. HE AND AL PELL DISCUSS MARKETS FROM A BEARISH PERSPECTIVE IN TODAY'S ANALYSIS.
ANALYSIS UTTERBACK:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE HAVE BOB UTTERBACK – UTTERBACK MARKETING EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT BOB IS SOME PEOPLE SAY HE'S A PESSIMIST BUT HE'S ACTUALLY A BEAR IN THE MARKET AND BOB YOU ARE A BEAR YOU ADMIT TO BEING A BEAR YOU TRADED THE MARKETS AND DONE WELL AS A BEAR BUT THAT MARKET MIGHT CHANGE WHAT COULD CHANGE YOUR MIND AND HOW WOULD YOU NOTICE IT. THERE ARE SEASONAL TIMES OF YEAR WHERE YOU CAN BE VERY AGGRESSIVE BEAR AND VERY COMFORTABLE AND THERE ARE TIMES WHERE YOU GOT TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE. OKAY. ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT COMING IN THE MARKET RIGHT OBVIOUSLY EVERY YEAR IS WEATHER YOU GOT TO DEAL WITH WEATHER. THAT'S RIGHT. EL NIÑO'S COMING IN '91 WE HAD A GREAT PRODUCTION YEAR '92 WE HAD A CROP FAILURE. YES TRUE. AND I THINK I COULD BE A POSSIBLE OH 15 WE GOT TO BE A CAREFUL BEING TO PESSIMISTIC SO I THINK FORM GOING FROM GOING FROM WORKING WITH MY CLIENTS FROM APRIL THROUGH ABOUT JUNE IF I'VE REACHED MY TARGET PRICE WHERE I'M MAKING A PROFIT I WANT TO BE IN A PUT PHILOSOPHY OF SHORT CASH LONG CALL SHORT LONG A PUT OR SHORT FUTURES WITH A SOME TYPE OF YOU GOT TO DEFEND YOUR CASH FLOW BUT ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK COMING THIS FALL IS CFTC IS CHANGING MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ON THE FCMS AND CHANGING ON THE BROKERS AND WHAT THAT'S GOING TO DO IS I THINK IT'S GOING TO CAUSE THE SMALLER GUYS TO EVEN OUT WE ALREADY HAVE A PUBLIC PR PROBLEM WITH THE MF GLOBAL DEBACLE AND YOU'VE GOT FEWER AND FEWER PARTICIPANTS IN THE MARKET AND SO YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE MORE CONCENTRATION AND WHAT THAT WILL DO THAT MEANS IT'S GOING TO TAKE LIQUIDITY OUT OF THE MARKET WHICH COULD MAGNIFY THE MOVES NOW BUT AS A BEAR I THINK IT MAGNIFIES THE BULLS THE BULL AFFECT SO IF WE HAVE A WEATHER BET NEXT SPRING IT MAKES THE MARKET MORE BULLISH CAUSE EVERYBODY RUSHES IN THAN A BEARISH EVENT. SO I THINK THAT AS A BEAR I'VE GOT TO WATCH THAT AND FORM AND WATCH THAT AS I GET INTO APRIL NEXT YEAR SO I'LL BE WANTING TO BE IN A SYNTHETIC PUT SO THAT'S GOING FROM A CASH TO FUTURES OPTION BUT IF WERE GOING INTO A STAGNATE MARKET ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE'RE GOING TO HAVE IN THE OPTIONS IS TIME VADIQUE I WILL BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE RIDER OF PREMIUM FROM JULY THROUGH FALL I'M GOING TO BE RIDING PREMIUM BECAUSE I THINK THE VOLATILITY IS GOING TO SLIP MARKETS WILL BE RANGE BOUND AND SO I'M GOING TO BE WRITING PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES CALLS AND PUTS RATHER THAN PAYING PREMIUMS SO TECHNIQUE YOU HAVE TO WRITE YOUR TECHNIQUE TO THE FUNDAMENTALS AND THE SEASONAL TIMES OF THE MARKET. TAKES SOME STUDYING AND YOU GOT TO BE WORKING WITH SOMEBODY THAT KNOWS WHAT'S GOING ON. GIVE ME A CALL. BOB UTTERBACK –UTTERBACK  MARKETING OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
ANALYSIS:
(TO TALK WITH BOB ONE-ON-ONE, CALL UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES TOLL FREE AT 800-832-1488)
AGWEB APP FINDER:
MOBILE APPS THAT MATTER TO YOU. THE NEW AGWEB APP FINDER IS YOUR GUIDE TO THE LATEST APPS AND REVIEWS FOR FARMERS. FIND THE AGWEB APP FINDER AT WWW.AGWEBAPPFINDER.COM)
TEASE:
AND CONSUMERS WHO WANT MORE PROTEIN IN THEIR DIET GRAB CERTAIN FOODS TO HELP OUT. WE'LL TELL YOU WHICH ONES COMING UP IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY.
BB COVER CROPS:
LEARN MORE ABOUT COVER CROPS AT AGWEB'S COVER CROPS SECTION - SPONSORED BY COVER CROP SOLUTIONS - HOME OF THE TILLAGE RADISH. VISIT AGWEB.COM/COVERCROPS.
ITC TAGS:
THANKS KENT....FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY IS NEXT.
FARMERS FEEDING THE WORLD BILLBOARD:
FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY FARMERS FEEDING THE WORLD. AGRICULTURE HAS THE ABILITY TO FEED ONE BILLION HUNGRY PEOPLE. PLEASE DREAM HUGE WITH US>
PROTEIN IN YOUR DIET:
IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY - AMERICANS WHO WANT MORE PROTEIN IN THE DIETS ARE NOT JUST RELYING ON MORE RED MEAT. ACCORDING TO THE RESEARCH COMPANY - N-P-D GROUP - CONSUMERS ARE LOOKING FOR PROTEIN-ENRICHED FOODS, LIKE CEREALS AND BREAD. NPD SAYS SHOPPERS ARE BUYING MORE PROTEIN PRODUCTS WHEN THEY'RE AVAIALABLE. 78-PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED SAY PROTEIN CONTRIBUTES TO A HEALTHY DIET. NPD SAYS FOOD AND BEVERAGE MARKETERS SHOULD LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO FORTIFY THEIR PRODUCTS WITH PROTEIN BECAUSE CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR PROTEIN ENRICHED PRODUCTS.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

 
  
 

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