Bob Utterback: ‘The Storm Clouds Are Looming’

February 15, 2013 03:00 AM
 

Government policies related to taxes and inflation, coupled with USDA projections for corn prices and other factors will make for years of violent market swings, says Bob Utterback, Farm Journal economist.

During a seminar at the 2013 National Farm Machinery Show, Utterback explored market trends and offered recommendations for corn, soybeans and cattle going forward. Watch his complete remarks in the video below, then read on for an overview of his suggestions.



Corn recommendations:

  • Plant maximum acres possible
  • Buy crop insurance
  • Sell December 2013 corn at $5.80 to $5.95 via deep-in-the-money puts rather than cash or short futures
  • Hold to fall, then take profits and capture carry storage return


Soybean recommendations:

  • Plant only what is needed
  • Focus on selling November 2013 at $13 to $13.50 in long deep-in-the-money puts
  • Sell beans off the combine


Cattle recommendations:

  • Expect $125 to hold most of the year; could see historic high prices. Very limited price protection suggested for 2013
  • Start prepping for downside risk exposure in 2014 when breeding herd expansion kicks in
  • Start working on developing an aggressive multi-year feed-buying campaign each fall and focus on locking up bonds for interest rate exposure

 

Read more of Utterback's marketing insight with is Farm Journal column: Outlook.

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See Farm Journal Media's full coverage of the 2013 National Farm Machinery Show.

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Anonymous
2/15/2013 05:38 AM
 

  does anyone understand that we have no water to grow another crop

 
 
Anonymous
2/16/2013 02:22 AM
 

  The USDA doesn't have a clue what crop production will be in 2013 anymore than any of us out here.

 
 
Anonymous
2/16/2013 02:22 AM
 

  The USDA doesn't have a clue what crop production will be in 2013 anymore than any of us out here.

 
 
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