Informa Economics predicts lower yields, but potential rainfall in South America brings support to the market.
Informa Economics’ release of its expectations for the 2011 corn yield on Friday added fuel to the fire of a smaller crop in next week’s report. Add to that mounting concerns about the South America drought, and the fundamentals are lining up for another bullish run.
That was all buoyed, however, as expectations for continuing weak exports and maybe even rain in Argentina this weekend put a lid on any runup to close the close trading week, says Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group.
"I think the market was more concerned with the Argentine weather that supposedly is going to give some relief this weekend. Informa did go along with everyone else and they lowered their total production for corn and soybeans each by 300 million bu."
USDA will release its final 2011 production numbers, and a WASDE report, on Thursday morning next week. The report will be closely watched by all, as this is the final word on supply for the remainder of the marketing year. Attention will then turn to the demand picture and the Planting Intentions Report, which is due out March 31.
There is a brighter outlook on the larger economy, too. Gulke sees signs of increasing bullishness in the housing market, but that is not helping the export markets. There are indications, says Gulke, that the housing market is showing signs of life. At the same time, the dollar is showing significant strength, which leads to concerns about export potential.
Listen to Gulke's full analysis:
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