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PF Editors: USDA Delivers Corn Stocks Surprise

September 30, 2011
By: Chip Flory, Pro Farmer Pro Farmer Editorial Director
 
 

 

 

** QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT**

  • CORN: 1.128 billion bu.; traders expected 962 million bu.
    -- compares to 3.67 bil. bu. June 1; 1.708 bil. bu. Sept. 1, 2010
  •  SOYBEANS: 214.7 million bu; traders expected 225 million bu.
    -- compares to 619 mil. bu. June 1; 151 mil. bu. Sept. 1, 2010
  • WHEAT: 2.150 billion bu.; traders expected 2.046 billion bu.
    -- compares to 861 mil. bu. June 1; 2.450 bil. bu. Sept. 1, 2010

We've been saying for some time that USDA would find a way to get 2010-11 corn carryover up to 1 billion bushels. Nonetheless, this is getting ridiculous. Either long-time, very experienced market analysts have lost their ability to add and subtract, or there is something weird going on with the supply and use of corn. The Quarterly Grains Stocks Report has become the most unpredictable report from USDA.

USDA's Sept. 1 corn stocks estimate is 166 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. While the stocks tally will be negative for corn, it is 580 million bu. below Sept. 1, 2010, corn supplies. In the report, USDA said, "Old-crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2011, totaled 1.13 billion bu., down 34% from Sept. 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 315 million bu. are stored on farms, down 35% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks at 813 million bu. are down 33% from a year-ago. The June-August 2011 indicated disappearance is 2.54 billion bu., compared with 2.6 billion bu. during the same period last year."

September 1, 2011, soybean stocks came in 10.3 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate, but are up 63.7 million bu. from Sept. 1, 2010. In the report, USDA said, "Old-crop soybeans stored in all positions on Sept. 1, 2011, totaled 215 million bu., up 42% from Sept. 1, 2010. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 48.5 million bu., up 37% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks, at 166 million bu., are up 44% from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2011 totaled 405 million bu., down 4% from the same period a year earlier."

Want more proof that USDA has gotten a bit ridiculous with some of its numbers? We were surprised to see a flash on newswires this morning that USDA had "revised" the 2010 soybean crop. Digging deeper, what USDA did was adjust down the harvested acreage tally by 6,000. Yes... 6,000 acres. That took 160,000 bu. off the 2010 bean crop. That's in a market that had 2010-11 "residual use" (don't-know-where-it-went use) estimated at 38 million bu. in the September Supply & Demand Report.

Sept. 1, 2011, wheat stocks came in 104 million bu. above pre-report trade expectations, but are 300 million bu. below year-ago. In the report, USDA said, "All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2011, totaled 2.15 billion bu., down 12% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 642 million bu., down 21% from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.51 billion bu., are down 8% from year-ago. The June-August 2011 indicated disappearance is 720 million bu., down 2% from the same period a year earlier."


** SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY **

  • CALL WHEAT: 2.008 billion bu.; trade expected 2.046 billion bu.
    -- compares to 2.077 bil. bu. in Aug.; 2.208 bil. bu. in 2010
  • ALL WINTER WHEAT: 1.494 bil. bu.; trade expected 1.495 bil. bu.
    -- compares to 1.497 bil. bu. in Aug.; 1.485 bil. bu. in 2010
  • HRW: 780.1 million bu.; trade expected 791 million bu.
    -- compares to 794 mil. bu. in Aug.; 1.018 bil. bu. in 2010
  • SRW: 457.5 million bu.; trade expected 453 million bu.
    -- compares to 452 mil. bu. in Aug.; 238 mil. bu. in 2010
  • WHITE WINTER: 256.1 million bu.; trade expected 251 million bu.
    -- compares to 251 mil. bu. in Aug.; 229 mil. bu. in 2010
  • OTHER SPRING WHEAT: 462.5 million bu.; trade expected 498 million bu.
    -- compares to 522 million bu. in Aug.; 616 million bu. in 2010
  • DURUM: 51.9 million bu.; trade expected 53 million bu.
    -- compares to 57 million bu. in Aug.; 107 million bu. in 2010

The all wheat estimate came in 38 million bu. below the average pre- report trade estimate, with other spring wheat production 35.5 million bu. below the average trade guess. A cut to the spring wheat crop was a "whisper" number in the markets this week, which helped to limit selling pressure on Minneapolis futures. USDA now puts the national average wheat yield at 43.9 bu. per acre, down 1.3 bu. per acre from the August estimate. Harvested acres of 45.715 million acres are down about 200,000 from August.


** WHAT ARE THE CALLS? **

Based on this morning's reports from USDA, traders are looking for corn to open down 15 to 20, soybeans to open down 15 to 20 cents and wheat to open down 5 to 10 cents.


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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Crops, USDA, Analysis

 
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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

Tom F
the USDA will get it right when they start calculating DDG usage and not unitl then
4:12 PM Sep 30th
 
David - IN
Government will corect numbers after rma discovery date.
9:45 AM Sep 30th
 
David - IN
Government just saved a ton of money on insurance and other disaster claims. Also recent prices goes to show how much speculators, who wouldn`t know a corn or bean if they saw it, cost our livestock feeders and ethanol producers.


9:42 AM Sep 30th
 



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