Stats Canada Forecasts Record-large Wheat & Canola Crops

October 4, 2013 05:45 AM
 

Farmers in Canada are harvesting their largest wheat and canola crops on record, according to Statistics Canada's second production report of the year.

Stats Canada forecasts the all-wheat crop at 33.026 MMT, which is up from its August peg of 30.6 MMT. The tally also topped the average pre-report trade guess of 32.9 MMT by a narrow margin. The previous record-large crop was 32.1 MMT in 1990.

Stats Canada pegged canola production at 15.963 MMT, which is up from its August estimate of 14.7 MMT. The canola crop topped the 2011 record production of 14.6 MMT, but the tally still fell short of expectations for a 16.6 MMT crop.

Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Jubinville explains, "Despite late seeding this spring, weather conditions that prevailed up to the end of summer have led to higher than normal yields. However, sporadic frost or disease may have affected certain crop yields."

While market response to the data was limited today as most of the figures came in near expectations, Jubinville notes, "There is a general sense that the final production numbers will probably come in greater than what StatCan is reporting today."

Stats Canada will release its final production numbers Dec. 4.

The data is based on a survey covering about 10,500 Canadian farmers conducted from Sept. 3 to 10. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

September estimates of production of principal field crops1
           
  2011 2012 September 2013p 2011 to 2012 2012 to September 2013
  thousands of tonnes % change
Total wheat2 25 118 27 063 33 026 7.7 22
Spring wheat 17 866 18 720 23 825 4.8 27.3
Durum wheat 4 172 4 627 5 579 10.9 20.6
Winter wheat 3 080 3 716 3 622 20.7 -2.5
Canola 14 552 13 778r 15 963 -5.3 15.9
Corn for grain 11 297 12 954 12 943 14.7 -0.1
Barley 7 725 7 833 9 247 1.4 18.1
Soybeans 4 235 5 015r 4 817 18.4 -3.9
Dry field peas 2 502 3 341r 3 781 33.5 13.2
Oats 3 040 2 727r 3 163 -10.3 16
Lentils 1 574r 1 538r 1 709 -2.3 11.1
Flaxseed 399 489 664 22.6 35.9
p preliminary      
r revised        
1 Effective July 2013, the Canadian totals for the July, September and March Farm surveys on crops will not include data for the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia. Crop production in these provinces account for 2% to 4% of the national total and is excluded. The data for these provinces will be available twice a year in the June Farm survey on seeded area estimates and in the November Farm survey on final crop production estimates.
2 Total wheat is the sum of winter wheat, spring wheat and durum wheat.
Note(s):  Figures may not add up to totals as a result of rounding.

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