WASDE: Export Forecast Lowered for Rice

February 9, 2012 01:51 AM
 

RICE:  No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2011/12 rice supply and use balance sheet. On the use side, the export forecast is lowered 1 million cwt from a month ago to 89 million—all in long-grain.

The rough rice export projection is lowered 1 million cwt to 32 million, while forecast combined milled- and brown-rice exports are unchanged at 57 million. The reduction in the export projection is due primarily to the slower-than-expected pace of sales and shipments to date to mostly to Central America because of increased competition, mainly from Brazil, and greater domestic supplies in some countries. 

The decrease in the export forecast resulted in an increase in ending stocks of 1 million cwt to 39.5 million, down almost 9 million from the previous year.  Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks are forecast at 21.6 million and 15.2 million cwt, respectively.

The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2011/12 is reduced to 70.00 percent, down 0.75 percentage points from last month, but still above 68.86 percent for 2010/11.  The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers’ Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through December and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average price range is projected at $13.40 to $14.00 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on the low end of the range and down 50 cents per cwt on the high end with the midpoint down 30 cents.  The combined medium- and short-grain price range is projected at $15.20 to $15.80 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on both ends of the range with the midpoint unchanged. The all rice season-average price range is forecast at $13.90 to $14.50 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt on the low end of the range, but down 30 cents per cwt on the high end, and down 10 cents at the midpoint. The price projections are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through December and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year.  Global trading prices have been trending down in recent weeks as competition for markets has been very keen with the addition of India as a large exporter.

Global 2011/12 projections of rice production, consumption, trade and ending stocks are raised from last month. The increase in the global rice production forecast is due mostly to increases for India and the Philippines, which are partially offset by reductions for Brazil, Egypt, Argentina, and the United States.  The U.S. rice crop (milled equivalent basis) is lowered slightly resulting entirely from the decrease in the average milling yield.  India’s rice crop is forecast at a record 102 million tons, up 2 million from last month due to an increase in both harvested area and yield. 

According to the U.S. agricultural counselor in New Delhi, favorable 2011 monsoon rains coupled with overall good weather conditions in the major rice producing areas supported higher kharif rice acreage and productivity.  The Brazil rice crop is lowered 340,000 tons due to the effects of drought in Rio Grande do Sul, an important rice producing State.  Global exports are raised by 1.4 million tons, primarily due to an increase for India and Egypt, which are partially offset by reductions for Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States. 

Forecast India exports are raised 2 million tons to a record 6.5 million tons, while exports for Thailand and Vietnam are lowered 500,000 and 200,000 tons, respectively.  Forecast imports are sharply raised for Egypt based on information from the agricultural counselor in Cairo.  Global ending stocks are up slightly from last month to 100.1 million tons mainly due to an increase for the Philippines.

See the full WASDE report.


 

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