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WASDE: Rice Crop Projected at 190 Million Cwt

August 10, 2012

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 244.4 million cwt, down 2.5 million from last month. Projected beginning stocks, imports, and production are each lowered from a month ago. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is 190.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month's projection, but up nearly 3 percent from the previous year.

Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds per acre, down 39 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South and Southeast Asia, a continuation of the trend observed in 2011/12. All rice beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.5 million because of an increase in the 2011/12 export estimate to 102.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in long-grain. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brown-exports (rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15 percent below the previous year.

U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in long-grain. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brown-exports (rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15 percent below the previous year.

The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2012/13 all rice price is projected at $14.10 to $15.10 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. A smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to support prices. The all rice stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2 percent in 2012/13 is the lowest since 2007/08, and the long-grain rice stocks-to-use ratio at 10.6 percent is the lowest since 2003/04.

Lower projected global 2012/13 total supply more than offsets a slight decrease in total use resulting in an expected decrease in ending stocks. Global production is lowered 1.9 million tons to 463.2 million, due primarily to forecast reductions for India, Brazil, and North Korea, which are partially offset by increases for China and South Korea. Beginning stocks are increased 0.8 million tons due to a 1.0-million-ton increase for India, which is partially offset by reductions for Brazil and Indonesia.

World consumption is reduced 0.4 million tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in China offsets an identical reduction for India. Consumption forecasts are also lowered for Brazil, North Korea, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Indonesia. Global trade is changed little from a month ago. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decrease of 3.2 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reductions for 2012/13 are for Brazil and Indonesia, each just over 0.3 million tons.

 
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Coverage, Analysis of the Aug. 10 Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

 


 

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RELATED TOPICS: Other Crops, USDA

 
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