Note: The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was not published in October 2013 due to the Federal Government shutdown.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 26 million bushels with higher estimated production and an increase in expected imports. Production was raised 14 million bushels in the September 30 Small Grains report.
Production is further raised 2 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and slightly for Durum based on the resurvey of North Dakota and Montana producers who had not finished harvesting when the September survey was completed for the Small Grains report.
Imports are projected 10 million bushels higher with larger supplies in Canada and stronger food use expected for HRS wheat. Food use for all wheat, however, is lowered 8 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association with Hard Red Winter wheat food use reduced. Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels higher based on indicated June-August disappearance from the September 1 stocks. Projected ending stocks are raised 4 million bushels.
The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average wheat farm price is narrowed 20 cents on each end to $6.70 to $7.30 per bushel. The midpoint of the range is unchanged from September at $7.00 per bushel. Normally 60 percent or more of each year’s crop is marketed from June through October and reported farm prices so far for this marketing year have averaged near $7.00 per bushel.
Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons as a decline in global output more than offsets higher beginning stocks, mostly in the European Union. European Union production for 2012/13 is revised higher and domestic consumption is estimated lower boosting 2013/14 beginning stocks. European Union production for 2013/14 is raised 0.4 million tons with small increases to reported crops in a number of member countries.
Canada production is raised 1.7 million tons in line with official estimates. Global production, however, declines 2.6 million tons with production lowered 2.5 million tons for Russia, 1.5 million tons for Kazakhstan, and 1.0 million tons for Argentina. Reductions for Russia and Kazakhstan reflect late-season harvest reports for spring wheat. The reduction for Argentina is based on lower expected harvested area as dryness and late-season freeze events reduce prospects for a crop which will be harvested over the coming weeks.
Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 3.0 million tons with reductions in foreign feed and food use projected this month. Feed use is lowered for China, Russia, and the European Union, more than offsetting a small increase for South Korea. Food use is lowered for India, Russia, and the European Union.
Global wheat trade, in the aggregate, is mostly unchanged this month with imports raised for several African countries and Mexico, but lowered for China, the European Union, and the Philippines. World exports decline slightly as reductions for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Russia more than offset increases for Canada, the European Union, and India. World wheat stocks are projected 2.2 million tons higher with the biggest increases for the European Union, Canada, and Argentina.