Sep 17, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew,

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.


Corn Bookings Exceed USDA Annual Forecast

Apr 08, 2014

 Grains were subdued overnight as traders wait on a delayed Crop Progress report this afternoon and the next WASDE report to be released on Wednesday. Corn and wheat fell 2 and 4 cents, respectively, while nearby May beans were unchanged in the night session.

On Monday, USDA failed to release their first Crop Progress report of the season, instead pushing the report to today at 3 PM CST. However, state offices in the Plains gave some key data on crop conditions there. Oklahoma and Texas saw another week of lower winter wheat conditions as both states fell by 2% in their good to excellent ratings as compared to last week. Kansas sees its winter wheat crop at 29% good to excellent while Oklahoma rated its crop at 15% good to excellent. Texas saw a modest improvement going from 11% last week to 13% this week.

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In beans, prices have been under pressure of late as traders look for an end to the strong export surge for old-crop delivery. News of a vessel of Brazilian soybeans arriving in the US Gulf over the weekend pushed prices down on Monday and have nearby May hovering around support at $14.60. On Monday, USDA announced a 120,000 MT sales of new-crop 2014/15 soybeans that were sold to China.

For corn, Monday saw a strong showing for export inspections with 1.3 MMT as compared to expectations of 1.00 to 1.25 MMT going into the report. China, the world's second-largest corn consumer, has signed an agreement with Brazil to allow imports of corn from the South American country, the Chinese quarantine authority said on Tuesday. Brazil is the 2nd largest exporter of corn in the world market next to the US, who stands to lose business from trade restrictions on US GMO corn. However, in the near term US corn export bookings for old-crop have exceeded what USDA has penciled in for the entire year, with 5 months remaining in the marketing year. Total export commitments for the marketing year stand at 41.3 MMT versus USDA’s annual forecast of 41.2 MMT, which seems to suggest WASDE export forecasts will need to be revised higher.

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