Sep 19, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Can Bean Bulls Keep Pace with Corn and Wheat?

Apr 30, 2014

Soybeans have climbed back to near-term highs but in my opinion, at least longer-term, appear to be much less bullish than their cousins corn or wheat. Meaning if I had to be short just one contract or one market, it would have to be new-crop soybeans.  I know I sound like a broken record, and the fact new-crop beans have rallied over $1.50 since the end of January and just posted their highest close in 10-months, makes it even tougher to swallow, but I continue to fear a major setback is around the next corner for new-crop soybeans.  I have explained the reasons why time and time again but here are few of the biggies: 

 

  1. Record US soybean plantingpossibly even more if the corn is delayed in some areas like many are anticipating.  
  2. Improved SAM logistics and another increasingly large crop just harvested.  
  3. Questionable Chinese demand We talk about this every year at this time, but it feels somewhat different as bird flu problems persist as well as major issues in pork production. 
  4. US imports of South American soy on the rise. Many in the trade are now talking about 80 million plus of soybeans being imported along with more than 1 million tons of soymeal. Boats are on the way!                                    CLICK HERE for my daily report.....

Old-crop remains a different story.  In fact I still don't think you can rule out $16.00 soybeans.  Would I be willing to gamble waiting on higher prices if I had old-crop beans left? Absolutely Not! Would I be a buyer of flat-price beans on the board in the front-end of the trade? Absolutely Not! But that doesn't mean prices can't still go another $1.00 higher.  The way these markets now trade, $1.00 in the front-end of the soybean market is nothing. In fact it's going to be the NEW one day price limit starting tomorrow. Be careful, as I suspect someone will want to test the waters sooner rather than later.  My next round of new-crop sales targets are now at $12.54 and then $12.80 respectively. I continue to warn spec's about trying to pick a high in the JUL/NOV spread as it remains extremely dangerous.  CLICK HERE for my daily report....  

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