Can Soybean Meal Lead Prices Higher?
May 14, 2014
Soybeans continue the recent pattern of two steps forward and two steps back. Even though the USDA has pushed soybean imports to 90 million bushels and new-crop ending stocks to 330 million on "paper," the bulls act as if they want to actually see the solution solved before they throw in the towel. You can talk or project a +45 bushel yield and estimate soybean acreage at 5 million higher than our previous record, but if it actually happens or not is an entirely different perspective. Keep your eye on the NOPA crush data scheduled for release tomorrow at 11:00am CST, this will give the trade another round of insight regarding current supplies. As a producer I remain optimistic, feel good about our current sales and will be looking for higher prices later in the growing season to reduce more risk. CLICK HERE for my daily report..
Chinese Selling Soybean Reserves: Insiders are reporting that the Chinese government set a floor price for yesterday's reserve soybean auction at 3,920 yuan/tonne or close to $17.40 per bushel. Reports following the auction show that close to 92% of the beans actually SOLD at an average price of over $18.00 per bushel. This certainly doesn't feel as if "demand" is non existent like some of the bears want to argue. In fact it appears to be a fairly good sale in my opinion.
Goldman Stays Negative Longer-Term: There is talk circulating that Goldman has their six-month price forecast for soybeans at $10.50 and corn at $4.00. Obviously this comes with the disclaimer of near "normal" weather conditions. CLICK HERE for my daily report....