The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
What Do I Think About Acres? Obviously you have to question "total" acres in play. I'm thinking total acres may be lower than most have thought. I also have a hard time swallowing 83 million soybean acres. I continue to feel like the March survey data for soybean acres was simply too high in comparison to other crops. The survey came at a time when US farmers had a bad taste in their mouth about corn prices and were desperately looking for ways to cut expenses and reduce input costs. The Spring Insurance guarantee was established at more profitable levels and corn caught a bounce back above $5.00 by late-March and early-April...just in time to encourage more planting and giving the US producer hope of chasing yields. Moral of the story, yes some acres to the north have been switched to beans due to weather and planting difficulties, but I haven't found hardly any producers who rolled with a significantly larger amount of soybean acres than normal. That's why I believe the March estimate of 81.5 million was off base, potential way off base. If you held a gun to my head and told me to call a shot, I would have to say corn acres stay steady to a bit higher (weather after the survey kept some corn acres from going in the ground that would have been planted). Soybean acres steady to lower. Even though beans acres had to replace corn in the delayed planting areas I'm just not seeing the big shift to soybean acres like the trade was talking back in March. Just be careful getting overly bearish the soybean market going into this report. CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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