Record Planting for Corn?
May 17, 2013
Informa's numbers released today had corn at 96.827 vs. 97.2 mil acres that the USDA has currently. Beans were estimated at 78.286 vs. 77.1 mil acres and spring wheat at 12.401 vs 12.7 mil acres. The markets reaction was mixed with old crop beans leading the way, up over .20 at the close. Early on there was some talk that corn acreage to the north would be lost due to major Red River flooding. From what I have heard that story never ended up having much follow through. In fact the Dakota's have been rolling and most of Minnesota seems to be planted. As I pointed out yesterday, there will definitely be some corn acres lost in the Delta, the question is how much? That brings us to another major short-term focal point in the trade, Monday's USDA planting progress numbers. There are several sources in the trade now talking about a jump to 60-70% planted vs. just 28% last week. The top end certainly sounds a little aggressive, but if you look at past history it is certainly a possibility. Especially if you believe Iowa and Illinois planted a new one week record. As a nation we planted our most corn ever in a single week back in early May of 1992 when the crop went from 28% to 71% planted between the first and second week of May. Regardless of what the numbers actually say, I am telling you now a mother-load of corn has been planted across the US this week. I continue to hear analyst close to the source thinking Illinois could get to 60-65% planted, Iowa to 65-70% planted, and Nebraska to 75-80% planted by weekend. Moral of the story, 95-96 million corn acres are going to get planted. The question is do yields continue to move lower on lack of moisture in June or extreme heat in July?