The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans could face some early weather related headwinds this week with improved rainfall amounts in both Argentina and Brazil over the weekend. On the positive side, reports in the trade are that China continues to buy US beans, an estimated 200,000 to 250,000 metric tons on Friday, but again, there is no way to officially confirming that with the USDA being shutdown. In fact some in the trade seem to think soybean exports could now be as high as 80% of the current years USDAs forecast. With a lack of USDA data I suspect tomorrows NOPA crush numbers for Sept. will have more weight than usual. From what I have heard trade estimates for the "crush" range from 103 to 111 million bushels, avg. guess just above 106 million (numbers should be out at 11:00am CST). I still think there is some upside potential left in the soy market before year end. Crush margins globally are too strong and nearby supplies are simply too tight. Longer-term is a bird of a completely different color.
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