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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Soybean Bulls Take Center Stage

Feb 06, 2014

Soybean bulls continue to cheer for old-crop prices, especially with reports of continued Chinese buying.  The market has now been able to keep its head above the $13.00 mark for two consecutive days...today could make it three?  Chinese demand and Weather threats in South America remain on center stage. The trade counties to digest bullish headlines regarding Argentine floods and excessively dry conditions taking hold in parts of Brazil. Lets not forget there are deepening political concerns in Argentina that traders are monitoring as well.  Bottom-line, the market is worried that if China doesn't make "cancelations" or decides to come back to the US for supplies, because of problems in South America, there simply might not be enough soy to satisfy demand. With no real substitute for high protein, supplies will obviously go to the highest bidders. The question will end up being, how high will end-users go to guarantee supplies? We continue to hold on to the final 10% of last years production, still targeting cash prices just north of $13.50. New-crop NOV14 prices remain a completely different story, where as I have lowered our next cash sales target to the $11.40 area.  Like everyone, as each day passes I am increasingly more nervous about the risk-to-reward in new-crop beans.  Soybean sales reported at 577,000 MT for 2013-14 and 219,500 MT for 2014-15.  The trade was looking for a combined number 550,000 and 850,000.  Last week sales were reported at a combined 865,800.  Click Here for my daily report.... 

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