Will Exports Tighten the Corn Market in Fridays Report?
May 07, 2014
Questions for the corn market before the USDA report.
Total US Corn Production - This will ?be? the USDA's first official shot at production estimates for 2014/15. There are several sources thinking the USDA will cut their current yield estimate of 165.3 bushels per acre and or planted acreage estimate for corn currently 91.7 million) because of Spring weather complications and delays. As you know I am NOT yet in this camp. I think it's still a bit early and the USDA will want to see a few more cards turned over before making that move...perhaps they make those adjustments in the June report but NOT this time around. In fact it wouldn't surprise me to see a slightly higher corn acreage number...especially in theJune 30th survey report. As for yield, anything seems possible. I just doubt the USDA makes any type of big move this time around.
Corn Stocks - It seems most sources are expecting domestic US corn supplies to tighten on increasing demand. The USDA continues to push export estimates higher. Just this past month (?i?n the April report) they pushed exports from 1.625 billion to 1.750 billion bushels. Everyone said I was nuts several months back when I said exports were going to 1.8 billion, now look at us. Maybe they don't actually get all the way to 1.8 billion (because of the Chinese kicking US cargoes), but I have a hunch before it's all said and done the USDA will once again have to slightly raise their export estimates higher. The flip side of increasing US demand is that global corn ending stocks may actually rise, depending on how the USDA decides to serve up the data. I am looking for an old-crop ending stock number sub 1.3 billion and new-crop to be somewhere around 1.6 billion. CLICK HERE for my daily report...