The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean bulls are backpedaling a bit this morning on the higher than expected pod counts and talk of extensive buying of Brazilian beans from late Jan forward. According to the Ag Ministry, Brazil has already recorded a NEW record for soybean exports this year, having exported almost 35 million metric tons, basically 95% of CONAB’s export targets for the country. The kicker is they still have 3-months left in their marketing year. The bulls are wondering if Brazil is close to being sold-out who will fulfill any immediate Chinese orders? Thoughts are with massive supplies still in transit, large quantities sitting at the Chinese ports and a US crop closing in on harvest there should be no concerns. Be careful here, as we have come to learn in life, everything always sounds really good on "paper." Making it happen can often be a completely different story. Producers who are behind should continue to make catch-up sales. Those who are 60-70% sold or hedged should be looking to reduce a little more risk if we can push into the $13.20 to $13.30 range.
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