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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

With beans making new lows...should you be selling?

Jul 30, 2013

 Soybean bears are not only talking about record US acreage, but are already starting to talk about another record crop coming down the pipe in South America. As I have pointed out for several weeks, lower corn prices will quickly discourage South American producers from planting corn and more bean acres will begin to surface. Possibly meaning another NEW record soybean crop for South America just around the next corner. Here at home traders continue talking about how the USDA may have underestimated last years crop. They also remember how the USDA magically found 35 million more bushels in last September's report and over 90 million bushels back in the Sept 2007 report (so don't think it is not possible).  

Technicians continue to view near-term support in the $11.80's range. Thoughts are if we close below that level the $11.20's could be the next step lower.  To the upside, the $12.50 to $12.60 range looks to be heavy resistance. To some surprise the USDA actually dropped the soybean ratings for the week to 63% "Good-to-Excellent." More specifically, Iowa fell by -3%, Minnesota by -2% and Illinois by -1%. Point is the USDA could certainly justify some type of reduction in "yield." Maybe they raise planted acreage a touch and offset it by reducing yield??? The cool wet weather and lack of overall growing units is certainly raising some eyebrows in regard to yield estimates.  

There has been a ton of talk as of late in regard to the "resurvey" of soybean acres and what will be reported in the upcoming August 12th report.  To follow my preview sign up for my free daily report.  45-Day Free Trial

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