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November 2009 Archive for EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

E Hedger Closing Grain Commentary 11/30/09

Nov 30, 2009


Settlements 11/30

Market Settlement Change Low High
Dec corn 402 3/4 5 1/2 392.25 405.25
Dec wheat 567 1/2 18 3/4 550.25 568.25
Jan soybeans 1060 1/2 7 1/2 1050.5 1069.25
Dec soymeal 326.80 0.30 324 330.8
Dec soyoil 40.19 0.09 39.88 40.46



           Corn, soybeans and wheat all closed higher.  Wheat was the clear leader today as it held on to double-digit gains for most of the day.  Today was the last trading day of the month and this attracted some additional fund buying.  The markets should continue to be choppy as we head through the Holiday season.  Reallocation of money from one commodity to the next combined with thin holiday markets should continue to cause sharp prices swings.

 

Soybeans closed around 8-cents higher.  End of the month positioning caused soybeans to trade on both sides of unchanged. The EU approved the 3rd GMO corn variety under question for import.  This was as expected, and with South American soybeans now at a discount to U.S., this should have little impact on U.S. exports to Europe at current prices.  The biggest factor for the soybean market remains the outside markets.  Investment money continues to enter all commodities including soybeans.  Fundamentally, soybean prices look to be overvalued.  Good South American weather and more available U.S. acres this spring should help global stock rise sharply in the coming 9 months.  Imported soybeans into China are around the same price as their domestic soybeans.  This could also start to limit Chinese imports in the coming months.  However, the trend is up right now.  Most bears are tired of “fighting” this market and until the market turns down and the investment buying slows down, few speculators will be willing to sell the market.  I still believe this current soybean rally is giving the American producer a great selling opportunity.  We are currently 30% sold for the 2010 crop and our next 10% goal is at $10.59 November futures (7-cents away).  I certainly don’t know when this buying will stop, but we will continue to use this buying to our advantage.

 

Corn closed around 5-cents higher.  Uncertainty over the final U.S. crop size, good ethanol margins, and strong investment buying continue to keep corn prices supported.  Poor export demand, dwindling feeding margins and more available acres in the spring are weighing on prices.  The EPA is also set to announce whether or not they will increase blending rates for U.S. ethanol.  We should hear something this week.  Most feel the EPA will not increase the blend rate right to 15% at this time.  Some feel that they will increase the rate to 12% and some feel they will simply push back their decision.  As ethanol is the strongest demand component for corn at this time, the EPA decision could be crucial to corn prices at these levels.  Again, I do not know when this buying will stop, but with current fundamentals $4.50 corn looks like a good sale.  

 

Wheat closed sharply higher.  The rally in wheat prices looks 100% like investment buying.  Export demand has really slowed after the current rally.  Global prices remain sharply discounted to U.S. prices and this should eventually weigh on prices.  Without the CFTC strictly enforcing changes on the wheat contract, investment buying is willing to continue their purchases of SRW wheat.  Although SRW wheat could prove to be interesting next year due to the sharp draw down in acres, this could be more of a cash game than a futures one.  SRW futures are now at a premium to the other classes as a reflection in the loss of SRW acres.  The problem is that the other classes of wheat can be delivered against the SRW contract for a PREMIUM.  So, even if there is an eventual “shortage” of SRW next year, this will likely result in a very strong basis rather than a sharp premium of SRW futures over the other classes.  Unlike the last few years, producers could be better off hedging in the futures and holding on to SRW cash.  Please call if you have any questions. 

 
 

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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/23/09

Nov 23, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/23
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
387 ¼      
- 3 ¾   
Jan 10 Beans
1042
- 4
Dec 09 Wheat
557 ¼      
- 2 ½  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
554 
- 2 ¾ 
Dec 09 Min Wheat
563 ¼     
- ¾  
Dec 09 Meal
315.6
- 1.5
Dec 09 Oil
39.40
- 0.31
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 





 

 
 
Corn, soybeans and wheat all closed lower on the day. A sharply lower dollar and sharply higher energy and metal markets helped grains rally overnight. We will likely see the markets remain choppy as people lighten up ahead of the holidays. There isn’t much in the way of fresh news out there. Good weather has finally helped corn harvest pick up although still way behind normal. Good rains fell in South America and more rains look to fall in the Midwest over this coming week. The market is now more focused on the U.S. dollar, gold and the stock market. Large sums of money have entered our markets over the past several weeks. As long as this trend continues, it will be hard for our markets break. As I have said many times, it is very hard to know how long or how much money will enter our markets. These large inflows of money continue to give the producer opportunities to lock in prices at profitable levels. Hopefully money will continue to blindly buy commodities and give us the opportunity to lock in more sales at even better levels. We have already made some good sales at these levels. Make sure your sales are up-to-date. Please call if you have any questions.
 
 
 
 
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Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Weekly Grain Wrap-Up 11/20/09

Nov 20, 2009
 
SETTLEMENTS 11/20
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
391     
- 4  
Jan 10 Beans
1046
+ 7
Dec 09 Wheat
559 ¾      
- 2 ¾  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
556 ¾  
- 4 ¼ 
Dec 09 Min Wheat
564    
- 4 ½  
Dec 09 Meal
317.1
-1.3
Dec 09 Oil
39.71
+ 0.26
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 





 
 
 
 
¨      ¨      Outside buying interest still dominates grains, oilseeds
¨      ¨      Rains slowed harvest mid-week but activity resuming
¨      ¨      Year-end position balancing to generate more volatility
 
Soybeans:
 
The soybean market remained the star attraction in the grains and oilseeds arena this week, with Jan futures settling at their highest level since August. With a majority of the US soybean harvest now complete, and fresh supplies now flowing through the pipeline, the enduring strength in the soybean price is clearly more a factor of sentiment than statistics. Basis levels have had a soft tone through the Midwest as harvest pressure emerged, but strong futures buying by speculators and position traders has ensured the overall bias of this market has remained higher for the past several days.
 
An upbeat chart pattern, continued strong buying by China and a weakening US dollar have all contributed to fueling gains in this market, and look set to remain important drivers of price action going forward. Capitulation by short traders who have been stung by this market’s ability to shrug off bearish pressure has also given prices a lift lately.
 
Looking forward, overall trading volume is set to lighten as the year-end nears so more volatility is guaranteed. This could set the stage for even steeper price gains should the chart-based bulls maintain their dominant position. However, profit taking will also be on traders’ minds as the year winds down, so we are expecting the occasional aggressive pullback in the days ahead as well.
 
In all, the beans have defied gravity impressively for much of the year, and look set right now to finish November out on the offensive. However, the first harvest of the likely record-large South American soybean crop will begin in late January, so it will not be too long before China has another potential supplier of beans to shop from. We are expecting greater export competition from S. America to sharply reduce our export potential from the US, and apply pressure to prices over the opening months of 2010. For producers, we think this price outlook means that crop sales should be made sooner rather than later, and that any further rallies in the weeks ahead should be used as opportunities to lock in profitable sales.
 
Corn:
 
Dec corn ended the week on the defensive and settled largely flat on the week. Strong outside buying interest has continued to prop prices up, despite emerging harvest pressure and weakening basis levels, especially in the West and North where harvest progress has outpaced that of Illinois. Rains slowed cutting activity this week to also limit price pressure, while fresh talk of disease and toxin worries also played a supportive role. However, we are still concerned that the US national corn yield will be high enough to cause a steep price decline once the gut slot of harvest nears.
 
Producers are advised to use any upcoming rallies as further selling opportunities, not just in 2009 prices but also for the 2010 crop. Lower input prices and fewer winter wheat planted acres will mean corn acreage will remain very high in 2010, which means supplies will stay ample. Meanwhile, there is concern about the demand side of the equation as poor exports and stunted demand from the feed sector highlight the delicate appetite of consumers at these prices.
 
 
Wheat:
 
Wheat prices ended the day slightly lower but overall enjoyed a strong week thanks to continued inflows of ‘outside’ money. The prospect of fewer planted winter wheat acres has spurred fresh investor interest in this market lately, even though global stockpiles of wheat are more than adequate.
 
There’s no doubt fresh weakness in the US dollar in the weeks ahead will offer further support to wheat prices, but we are concerned that a harvest-led break in the corn price will drag wheat prices sharply lower too, so advise producers to top up sales on near term rallies and look to protect against another slump back below $5.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/18/09

Nov 19, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/18
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
399     
- 3
Jan 10 Beans
1029 
- ½ 
Dec 09 Wheat
565 ¼      
- 9 ½  
Dec 09 KC Wheat
565 ¼  
- 8 ¾ 
Dec 09 Min Wheat
564 ¼     
- 17 ¾  
Dec 09 Meal
310.8
+ 2.1
Dec 09 Oil
39.83
+ 0.02
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 






 
 
Corn, beans, and wheat all opened firmly higher, but closed today’s session lower. Today’s action signals a key reversal, but will need to be confirmed tomorrow. Higher markets this morning was a continuation of the uptrend and once again signaled the strength that outside markets and “investment funds” can add to the market. At one point January beans traded 20-higher and at the highest level since August, while December wheat also traded to highs not seen since August. Corn fell just short of the October highs. These prices are trading near/through some key resistance levels, so once again technical traders will place a lot of emphasis on closing prices the remainder of the week. If today’s reversal holds, it appears to signal a short to mid-term change in price movement and the grain markets could easily pull back 5-15 cents in corn and 20-30 in beans by week’s end. Just keep in mind that big money flow will be the biggest influence on the market here in the short term. Also, keep in mind that this Friday is December option expiration. The $4.00 strike price in December corn carries a lot of open interest and currently futures are at $3.98. 


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Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/17/09

Nov 17, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/17
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
401 ¾      
- ½   
Jan 10 Beans
1031 ¼ 
+ 21 ¼ 
Dec 09 Wheat
574 ¼      
+ 12 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
574 
+ 13 ¾ 
Dec 09 Min Wheat
582    
+ 7 ¾  
Dec 09 Meal
308.7
+ 4.3
Dec 09 Oil
39.95
+ 0.18
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 







 
 
Beans and wheat closed higher while corn closed slightly lower. Today appeared to be dominated by the technical trade. Once it was clear that beans were going to have a technically strong close, buying poured into the market to push the Jan beans up to their highest close since Mid August. Wheat also had a solid close but corn never managed to find the buying interest. Oil world came out and once again cut Argentina’s bean crop estimate. Who knows where that crop will end up but it is extremely early to start making those kinds of cuts to Argentina’s bean crop. From a fundamental standpoint, grain prices are at lofty levels. There is still room for debate on where exactly the crop will end up, but in general the US is going to have a solid crop and at this point the demand does not justify prices moving significantly higher from here. However, that does not mean that technical traders, money flow, and inflation fears cannot make prices move higher. Even though this could happen we don't think producers should sit on large amounts of unsold grain. We recommend that producers... 
 
 
 
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Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.
Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger
 
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/11/09

Nov 11, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/11
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
392 ¾      
- 1 ¾  
Nov 09 Beans
964 ¼   
+ 2 ¾ 
Dec 09 Wheat
530 ½     
+ 7 ½ 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
535 ¼ 
+ 9 ¾
Dec 09 Min Wheat
550 ¾  
+ 6 ¼ 
Dec 09 Meal
288.2
unch
Dec 09 Oil
38.39
+ 0.83
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 







 
 
 
Soybeans and wheat closed higher, corn closed mixed. Corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged today while wheat remained higher throughout the day. Three major index funds are expected to buy a total of 18,000 contracts of soybeans; 25,000 contracts of wheat and 65,000 contracts of corn in the month of January. The feeling that Index funds will continue to invest in commodities caused some additional buying/ short covering today. Hedge pressure and a slow down in export sales have weighed on basis levels and nearby spreads. 
 
Yesterday’s report came with little surprises. The national corn yield was lowered slightly to 162.9 bu./acre. This helped lower the ending stocks estimate to 1.625 billion bushels. With only 25% of the national crop harvested on Nov.1 (when the estimates were made) and the next production estimates not until January, there are worries that the next estimate could be smaller. These concerns combined with “new money” have helped boost corn Open Interest by 200,000 contracts in the past 2 months! This incredible buying combined with a very slow harvest pace is the MAIN driver of corn prices at this time. Going forward, we will need to see how the second half of the corn crop yields. So far, yields have been better than expected in many areas and disappointing in others. Many producers west of the Mississippi have reported record average yields, while many in the east have seen yields below average. This uncertainty has kept many speculators from selling the market. The high moisture and slow harvest has kept many producers from selling the market. With 200,000 new longs entering the market, it has been hard to find enough selling to accommodate them. So now what? So far, all of the attention has been on the supply side of the equation (and rightfully so). With most farmers concentrating on soybean harvest, soon most farmers will be focusing on corn. Unless the crop declines sharply, the market will start to focus on demand. 
 
In our opinion, the USDA has already written down the largest demand estimates for the year. Ethanol demand being the exception, demand for all sectors looks overestimated at least at current price levels. Exports have slowed considerably as South American corn and Black Sea feed wheat have priced themselves for business. Good (wheat) grazing conditions in the Plains will delay corn feeding until next spring in many areas. Strong ethanol production has also increased the amount of DDG production. Cheap DDG prices and high corn and soybean meal prices have caused many feeders to increase their DDG rations. There are some real positives (strong ethanol margins in the U.S., Relatively tight global stocks, declining acres in South America and increased investment money) and some real negatives (decreasing feed and export demand, increased harvest pace, and additional acres in U.S. next spring) for the corn market. We believe these factors will keep corn prices in a wide trading range until next spring. We expect corn prices to struggle over $4.20 and under $3.20 until next spring. Low production costs and an increase in available acres (an estimated 3 million out of CRP, and up to 3 million less winter wheat) makes $4.40 2010 corn look expensive. Our next selling recommendation is...
 
The USDA raised the national soybean yield to 43.3 bu./acre. This helped raise the ending stocks level to 270 million bushels. We expect the USDA to increase their production estimate in the January report as yield reports from the later harvest soybeans continue to come in above expectations. As with corn, we believe that the USDA has already written down the largest demand estimates of the year. An early start to the Brazilian growing season will likely take away export business much sooner than normal. We should see export out of Brazil as early as Feb.1 and nearly all exports originating from South America by March 1. Global protein demand continues to be a concern due to a decrease in animal numbers and an increased use of alternative feed ingredients. If South America has normal growing conditions, global stock look to climb to record levels this spring. Things can change quickly, but right now we expect soybean meal and soybeans to be the “weak links” as we head into the spring. Eventually, growing Biodiesel demand throughout the globe looks interesting especially if energy prices continue to rise. Right now, soybean oil stocks are huge and cash prices are very weak. We could still be months away from any “tightness” in world vegetable oil stocks, but with rising energy prices and weak protein demand we could see some interesting opportunities ahead for soybean oil. These factors make 2010 soybean look very expensive. 
 
Wheat ending stocks were raised by 20 million to 885 million bushels. This was mainly due to a decrease in wheat exports of 25 million. Currently, wheat looks pretty dismal. U.S. and global supplies are very large and U.S. demand is weak. However, I believe the worst is behind us. Lower production and South America and a potential sharp reduction in U.S. acres could help wheat prices stabilize here. However, I think it is very important to look at the different classes of wheat. Right now, HRW and HRS supplies look very large and production of HRW looks ample for next year. SRW wheat could be a different story in our opinion. We could see SRW acres decline by 2 million acres this winter. Although current stocks are ample at 167 million bushels, we could see things change very quickly. 
 
Normal growing conditions could quickly draw down stocks to the 75 million bushel level and a crop problem would quickly turn this “specialty wheat” from burdensome to bullish. This is far from true today, but with plantings far behind in the Southern Midwest and Delta and with strong corn and soybean prices, this is quickly becoming a reality. This is why we believe that the bullishness in wheat (if it happens) will likely come from SRW and not the other classes. Because the contract has been changed and delivery points have been added in an attempt to help convergence, we believe we will see basis levels improve greatly. If there is a small crop, the cash market will likely be the leader. Because other classes of wheat can be delivered against the SRW futures contract, we believe any tightness will be seen in the cash markets rather than the futures. Again, maybe this doesn’t happen but it is a light at the end of the tunnel. We recommended...
 
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Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/09/09

Nov 09, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/09
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
386  
+ 19
Nov 09 Beans
964 ¼   
+ 16 ¼ 
Dec 09 Wheat
520    
+ 22 ¾ 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
521 ¾ 
+ 20 ¾
Dec 09 Min Wheat
546   
+ 27 ¾ 
Dec 09 Meal
294.3
+ 5.5
Dec 09 Oil
37.51
+ 0.74
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




 
      Corn, wheat and soybeans all closed sharply higher. Good harvest weather over the weekend and a good outlook for the remainder of the week caused prices to open lower overnight. However, the U.S. dollar index broke sharply to new 15-month lows overnight and this attracted more buying into the commodity markets. Most people attribute the break in the dollar to the fact that the U.S. House passed their version of the Health Reform Bill over the weekend. The USDA will release their November Supply and Demand estimates tomorrow. These will be the last estimates of the year. With harvest pace so far behind (especially in corn), it is hard to tell what the USDA will say tomorrow. So far, most people are looking for a slight increase in soybean production (3.27 billion, yield 42.7 bu./acre) and a slight decrease in corn production (12.995 billion, yield 163.7 bu./acre). I will write a detailed commentary after the close tomorrow. All of our customers should be caught up with our recommendations. Please call before the report if you have any questions. 
 
 
 
 
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Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.
Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/4/09

Nov 04, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/04
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
384   
- 6 
Nov 09 Beans
995 ½   
- 11 ¼ 
Dec 09 Wheat
521    
+ 5 ¼
Dec 09 KC Wheat
526 ¾
+ 6 ¾
Dec 09 Min Wheat
535 ¾ 
+ 6 ¾ 
Dec 09 Meal
301.6
- 4.8
Dec 09 Oil
37.55
+ 0.02
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 








 
 
 
--Informa pegs corn production at 13.064 billion bushels and soybean production at 3.333 billion; FC Stone looks for 13.004 billion corn and 3.379 billion soybeans.
 
 
 
 
Corn and soybeans closed lower and wheat closed higher. Basically, today was the opposite of yesterday. Corn and soybeans struggled throughout the day despite the sharply lower dollar and strong stock market. The Fed left interest rates unchanged and this helped push the U.S. dollar index sharply lower. The trade continues to “borrow” cheap U.S. dollars and invest in foreign currency and commodities. The current administration favors a 0% interest rate and cheap dollar to stimulate prices and “fix” the economy. This is much easier than actually having to de-leverage the United States way of life. As long as this remains the policy, we will continue to see people borrow free money and buy leveraged assets including commodities. This should keep volatility high in all markets especially commodities.
 
The extended weather looks mostly warm and dry until the middle of next week. Informa and FC Stone came out with production estimates today. Informa estimates the national corn production at 13.064 billion bushels; FC Stone estimates production at 13.004 billion versus the USDA’s October forecast of 13.018 billion. Informa estimates soybean production at 3.333 billion; FC Stone 3.379 billion versus the USDA’s October estimate of 3.250 billion. The USDA will release updated estimates on November 10th. There is a lot of uncertainty with these estimates since a small amount (Estimated 30% of their test plots) have actually been harvested as of November 1. Their next estimate won’t be until January, so there will likely be a lot to argue about over the next 2 months! This has been a very unusual year to say the least, and many are just ready to finally finish up with this crop. Luckily it looks like weather will cooperate for the next 9 days at least. Hopefully this will mark a changing trend in the weather and help us finish a meaningful amount by Thanksgiving. The trade is currently looking for soybeans to be 75% complete by next Monday and corn to be 35-40% complete. There was not a large allocation of money into the grains today. We will have to see if the money returns tomorrow or not. If it does, I still like…

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Get More From EHedger.
 
Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.
Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger
 
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/03/09

Nov 03, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 11/03
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
390     
+ 7 ¾ 
Nov 09 Beans
1006 ¾  
+ 9 ¼
Dec 09 Wheat
515 ¾    
- 1
Dec 09 KC Wheat
520  
unch
Dec 09 Min Wheat
529     
- 2
Dec 09 Meal
306.4
+ 3.7
Dec 09 Oil
37.53
+ 0.74
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




Corn and soybeans closed higher and wheat closed lower. The grains opened lower this morning after a sharp rally in the Dollar Index overnight. Corn and soybeans quickly found support however and moved higher. Heavy inflows of “new money” poured in to the grains all day. This helped corn prices rally up to $3.96 ½ and soybeans up to $10.18 on the day. Index funds reportedly bought 20,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 10,000 contracts of wheat in the final minutes of yesterday’s trade. There was also a lot of volume in corn and soybeans today and this was probably additional Index Fund buying. As long as this volume of buying continues, it will be hard for prices to break.   With harvest just starting to pick up again, there just isn’t enough selling to accommodate such heavy buying. I was hoping for a rally back to $3.85 in December futures and $10 in November futures this week and we have surpassed those levels today. I would use these levels to get caught up on sales. The daily moves continue to be very large and very volatile. Our markets continue to be caught between several external factors and several fundamental ones. It is very hard and frustrating trying to predict prices while this is taking place. As a producer, I would just continue to use these large rallies to make sales so you can avoid the temptation of making sales on the large breaks. Good luck with harvest and give us a call if you have any questions.

 
 
 
 
 
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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 11/02/09

Nov 02, 2009
 
 
SETTLEMENTS 11/02
         
 
Dec 09 Corn
382 1/4     
+ 16 ¼ 
Nov 09 Beans
997 ½  
+ 19 ½
Dec 09 Wheat
516 ¾    
+ 22 ½ 
Dec 09 KC Wheat
520  
+ 21
Dec 09 Min Wheat
531     
+ 18 ¼
Dec 09 Meal
302.7
+ 5.7
Dec 09 Oil
36.79
+ 0.39
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 






 
 
 
Corn, bean and wheat prices all closed sharply higher during the session. People continue to try and put fundamental stories behind every market move. However, the majority of the rally today simply appeared to be... For more...
 
 
 
 
 
 
Get More From EHedger.
 
Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.
Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.
 
Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger
 
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.
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