The day session started out slow but found heavy sell pressure led by the wheat contract. July wheat closed 19 cents lower at $6.90 ¼. The negative wheat trade also spurred selling in the corn market. Funds were estimated to be heavy sellers of both at midday while total volume was light. December corn closed 6 cents lower at $4.89. July soybeans managed to rally nearly 20 cents off the session lows to finish +3 cents on the day at $14.86 ¾. The resiliency of July soybeans continues to surprise many traders since there is no news event to spur sudden fund inflows or outflows.
Tomorrow we will get export sales at 7:30am CST. The average guess is calling for 0 – 50,000 MTs of old crop beans and 200,000 – 350,000 MTs of new crop. Old crop corn is expected to be 200,000 – 400,000 MTs and new crop at 50,000 – 250,000. Wheat sales are expected to be between 250,000 – 600,000 MTs, all 14-15.
We still maintain that the path of least resistance is lower for the next 30 days. We just had a bearish WASDE report, pollination is a ways off, we are back to an average planting pace, and we continue to import soybeans at a strong pace from South America. When planting finally wraps up, there could be a lag of bullish information to "feed the bulls".
The December corn chart doesn’t look very pretty. We still have a gap above the market from the weekend. We have settled below trendline support and the 50 day. The next support is the 38.2% retracement level of $4.86, and then below there at $4.76.
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