Choppy Range Bound Prices Expected This Week
May 01, 2013
Markets were lower ahead of the Weekly Export Sales Report tomorrow morning. December corn settled 6 ¼ cents lower at $5.50 ½, November soybeans 14 ¼ cents lower at $12.09 ¼, and July wheat 10 cents lower at $7.21.
We are still in a weather market. Prices were heading lower while everyone was expecting normal yields, now it appears that we have reversed that decline and have priced in some weather premium. The next two weeks are going to be crucial for price action. If we continue to see heavy rain amounts into late next week we can easily see corn taking out the highs of $5.70. If we get some warmer/drier weather we can see corn taking out the lows of $5.17. The latest GFS model is forecasting a drier model in the 10-15 day range for much of the Midwest which helped contribute to today’s weakness.
While many are touting a corn rally from the slow planting pace, we haven’t heard much chatter about how bearish this could be for November soybeans. A 2-3 million acre swap from corn to soybeans would be very bearish for the November contract. Where are the latest bullish headlines for soybeans? We have bird-flu in China, lower than expected Chinese GDP, a large South American soy crop, and soybean export sale cancellations originally scheduled for China.
As a producer with guaranteed bushels we want to any rallies as opportunities to make additional hedges, especially if you were able to buy the short dated calls that we recommended last week. Please feel free to sign up for our newsletter to get our recommendations emailed to you. Have a great week!
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