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December Corn at Lowest Settlement Since March 28th
May 14, 2014
The day session started out slow but found heavy sell pressure led by the wheat contract. July wheat closed 19 cents lower at $6.90 ¼. The negative wheat trade also spurred selling in the corn market. Funds were estimated to be heavy sellers of both at midday while total volume was light. December corn closed 6 cents lower at $4.89. July soybeans managed to rally nearly 20 cents off the session lows to finish +3 cents on the day at $14.86 ¾. The resiliency of July soybeans continues to surprise many traders since there is no news event to spur sudden fund inflows or outflows.
Tomorrow we will get export sales at 7:30am CST. The average guess is calling for 0 – 50,000 MTs of old crop beans and 200,000 – 350,000 MTs of new crop. Old crop corn is expected to be 200,000 – 400,000 MTs and new crop at 50,000 – 250,000. Wheat sales are expected to be between 250,000 – 600,000 MTs, all 14-15.
We still maintain that the path of least resistance is lower for the next 30 days. We just had a bearish WASDE report, pollination is a ways off, we are back to an average planting pace, and we continue to import soybeans at a strong pace from South America. When planting finally wraps up, there could be a lag of bullish information to "feed the bulls".
The December corn chart doesn’t look very pretty. We still have a gap above the market from the weekend. We have settled below trendline support and the 50 day. The next support is the 38.2% retracement level of $4.86, and then below there at $4.76.
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