EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8-9-2011
Aug 09, 2011
Grains were mixed today after trading sharply lower overnight. December corn finished 2 ½ cents higher at $6.88 ½, November soybeans down 11 ¾ at $12.99 ¾, December wheat up 9 cents at $7.03 ¾.
With the stock market turbulence, grains have undoubtedly been highly affected in the short term swings. After the FOMC minutes were released we eventually found very strong support for the outside markets which could end up pushing grains higher on the overnight open.
Besides the stock market, we also had the crop ratings released last night which were "friendly" for corn and "bearish" for soybeans. We could see this in the corn to bean ratio in today’s trade. On top of this, the average trade guesses came in for the August 11th report and they are lowering their corn production estimates quite heavily while keeping soybean production estimates slightly lower from the last USDA numbers.
Here are the averages from the Reuters poll:
Source Corn Avg yld Soybeans Avg yld
Average trade estimate 13.082 155.589 3.187 42.775
Highest trade estimate 13.410 158.000 3.590 43.400
Lowest trade estimate 12.775 152.100 3.115 42.000
USDA July 13.470 158.700 3.225 43.400
USDA 2010 final 12.447 152.800 3.329 43.500
The market is expected to remain volatile right through the August report. If you want any additional protection for the report, tomorrow is the last trading day to get something on for the report. Please call your broker in the morning if you would like to go over your positions.
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