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EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

Planting Progress Behind Pace

Apr 22, 2013

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Grains and oilseeds closed lower Monday with the largest setbacks occurring in the December corn and July soybean contracts.  December corn closed 14 cents lower at $5.33 which means we are within 8 cents of reaching new lows for the move again.  July soybeans were 18 ¼ cents lower at $13.64 ¼.  November soybeans traded below $12.00 for the first time since June 18th, 2012.

Temperatures are expected to climb while rain amounts decline over the next couple of weeks which has the market forward pricing December corn lower.  Planting Progress shows corn at only 4% complete which is well behind the average pace of 13% at this time of year (1986-2012 average).  This is the same planting pace we were on in 2008 which ended up yielding 153.9.  In 2009 we were only at 5% planted on this week and we ended up yielding 164.7.  With much of the Midwest recharged with moisture we are still estimating a trendline yield of 157.6.

Even if we believe that final yield is not currently in jeopardy the market may think otherwise.  The average guess for today’s planting progress was 5-6%.  Since it came in under those estimates we may see a slightly stronger start overnight not to mention the last three weeks have started out lower on Monday but had a decent rebound Tuesday.  If we do see the traditional turn-around we would like to use those opportunities to get caught up to the EHedger recommended sale levels (please sign up using link for full recs).  The top of the range seems to be the 30 day moving average of $5.50 while the trendline support comes in at $5.30.

December Corn on a daily chart.December 2013 Corn

Meanwhile, November soybeans are making a series of lower lows.November 2013 Soybeans

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EHedger is a premier full service commodity brokerage offering risk management services for the agricultural sector as well as professional traders.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

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