Jul 24, 2014
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Farmland Forecast

RSS By: Marc Schober, AgWeb.com

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

USDA Weekly Exports: High Temperatures may put Pressure on Soybean Conditions

Jul 24, 2014

 Forecasts for the coming weeks suggest above average temperatures and below average rainfall. Following crop condition reports that are at their best levels since 1994, the weather could put significant pressure on soybean conditions as they enter their pollination stage. Grain prices have fallen significantly in the past few months due to potentially record breaking production from both corn and soybeans this year.

 

Exports were up for corn, soybeans, and wheat last week. Soybean exports have increased the last two weeks and wheat exports have increased the last three. Soybean and wheat sales also increased, while corn sales decreased.

 

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending July 17th in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 291,500 metrics tons (MT), a 49% decrease from the previous week, and a 29% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, Spain, South Korea, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Canada. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations and China. Exports were 992,500 MT, a 9% increase from the prior week and a 9% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Egypt, Spain, and Costa Rica.

 

Weekly net soybean sales in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 226,700 MT, a significant increase from the previous week and the 10 week average. Increases were reported from China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Japan. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations and Mexico. Exports were 162,700 MT, a 72% increase from the prior week and a 5% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Japan, and Mexico.

 

Weekly net wheat sales for the week ending July 17th in the 2014/2015 marketing year were 443,200 MT, a 38% increase from the previous week and a 57% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, Nigeria, Singapore, Brazil, Vietnam, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from the Philippines, unknown destinations, and Panama. Exports were 551,700 MT a 32% increase from the prior week and a 16% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Brazil Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico Japan, and Singapore.

7 24 14 Sales

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

7 24 14 Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

Crop Progress: Temperatures Rise as Pollination gets into Full Swing

Jul 21, 2014

Warmer weather is forecasted for this week with highs to be above average throughout the Corn Belt which is conducive to corn pollination. The heavy rain seen in the northern corn belt has left many concerned about nitrogen leaching. Some farmers reapplied nutrients if they were able to get in the field. As a result of leaching, corn has been reported stunted in some areas.

The USDA estimated corn conditions were 76% in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, unchanged from the previous week, but a 13% increase from last year. 19% was considered "Fair," unchanged from last week, while only 5% was considered "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the Corn Belt states, Illinois had the most corn rated "Excellent" at 29%, up 1% from last week, followed by Iowa and Nebraska with 25% and 24%. Corn was reported 56% silked, a 22% increase from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Northern corn producing states are well behind their five-year average due to the planting delay they experienced this spring.

Soybean conditions were reported with 73% of the crop in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, up 1% from last week, and a 9% increase from last year. 22% was reported in "Fair" condition, unchanged from the previous week, while only 5% was reported as "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the five largest soybean producing states, Illinois had the most crop rated "Excellent" at 21%, followed by Iowa with 20%. Soybeans blooming were reported at 60% this week, up 19% from last week, and 4% ahead of the five-year average. 70% of Indiana’s soybean crop has bloomed, 1% ahead of Illinois. Soybeans setting pods were reported for the first time this week. The USDA estimates pods on 19% of the soybeans, 12% ahead of last year and 2% ahead of the five-year average. Indiana and Nebraska are over double their five-year average with 32% of the plants showing pods.

The winter wheat crop was reported 75% harvested, up 6% from last week, and even with the five-year average. Many of the southern wheat producing states are near completion with this year's wheat harvest, while northern wheat producing states like Nebraska and South Dakota are well behind due to rain that has slowed or prevented the harvest.

September futures for corn closed the week at $3.64 per bushel, down 4.5% from last week. August soybeans ended the week at $11.75, down 1.8% from last week. September wheat ended the week at $5.30, down 1.3% from last week. Year-to-year corn prices are down 32.6%, soybeans are down 22.7%, and wheat is down 19.6%.

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

Crop Progress: Forecasts Show Excellent Weather for Pollination

Jul 14, 2014

Temperatures are expected to cool down this week across much of the Corn Belt. Below average temperatures and high humidity will help the corn crop as it enters the pollination stage. The World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released by the USDA last Friday decreased their overall production estimate due to the flooding that occurred across Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Southern Minnesota during June. An estimated 383,000 acres were destroyed and another two million were damaged in Iowa and Illinois alone.

The USDA corn conditions were estimated 76% in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, up 1% from the previous week, and a 10% increase from last year. 19% was considered "Fair" down 1% from last week, while only 5% was considered "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the Corn Belt states, Illinois had the most corn rated "Excellent" at 28%, followed by Iowa and Nebraska with 23% and 22%. Corn was reported 34% silked, a 19% increase from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Minnesota is well behind with only 5% of its corn in the silking stage, opposed to the five-year average of 20%.

Soybean conditions were reported with 72% of the crop in "Good" or "Excellent" condition, unchanged from last week, but a 7% increase from last year. 22% was reported in "Fair" condition, a 1% decrease from the previous week, while only 6% was reported as "Poor" or "Very Poor." Of the five largest soybean producing states, Illinois and Iowa had the most crop rated "Excellent" both with 20%. Soybeans blooming were reported at 41% this week, up 17% from last week, and 4% ahead of the five-year average. 55% of Indiana’s soybean crop has bloomed, 20% above their five-year average.

The winter wheat crop was reported 69% harvested, up 12% from last week, and 1% ahead of the five-year average. Many of the southern wheat producing states are near completion with this years wheat harvest, while northern wheat producing states like Nebraska and South Dakota are well behind due to rain that has slowed or prevented the harvest.

September futures for corn closed the week at $3.81 per bushel. August soybeans ended the week at $11.97, and September wheat ended the week at $5.37. Year-to-year corn prices are down 28.9%, soybeans are down 17.6%, and wheat is down 19.7%.

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

WASDE: No Longer Record Corn Production

Jul 11, 2014

Record corn production is no longer expected for the 2014/15 marketing year due to a reduction in total harvested acres, but the projected average U.S. corn yield is expected to break 2009's record of 164.7 bushels per acre by 0.36%. Cooler than average temperatures are expected in July and August, which match trends seen in years with above trend line yields, including 1972, 1979, 1982, 1994, 2004, and 2009. Mild temperatures in the upcoming weeks are extremely favorable for corn during the critical pollination period.

Harvested area of U.S. soybeans was significantly increased, according to the June 30th Acreage Report, to 84.1 million acres, which projects the 2014/15 crop at a record 3.800 billion bushels. Such a record crop would increase estimated ending stocks by 21.7%, the largest ending stocks since 2006/07.

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were projected 100 million bushels higher to 1.246 billion bushels, primarily due to decreased feed and residual use. Exports for U.S. corn in the 2013/14 marketing year were unchanged from last month remaining at 1.900 billion bushels.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. corn ending stocks were projected to be 1.801 billion bushels due to another nearly record year of production. U.S. exports were estimated at 1.700 billion bushels with total usage of 13.335 billion bushels. Projected total production was estimated at 13.860 billion bushels. U.S. corn use for ethanol was estimated 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for corn was estimated at $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel, compared to $4.35 to $4.55 per bushel for 2013/14.

U.S. Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2013/14

Grain

July 2014

Average Estimates

June 2014

Corn

1,246

1,316

1,146

Soybeans

140

132

125

Wheat

590

-

593

 

U.S. Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2014/15

Grain

July 2014

Average Estimates

Corn

1,801

1,807

Soybeans

415

417

Wheat

660

590

 

Soybeans

Estimated U.S. soybean exports for 2013/14 were increased 20 million bushels to 1.620 billion bushels. Ending stocks were increased 15 million bushels to 140 million bushels this month, due to decreased residual usage more than offsetting increased crushing usage. The soybean stock-to-use ratio increased to 4.1%.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. soybean ending stocks were projected at 415 million bushels. Exports were estimated at 1.675 billion bushels with total usage of 3.541 billion bushels. The projected soybean yield was unchanged at 45.2 bushels per acre, but total production was increased to a record 3.800 billion bushels due to a 4.3% increase in harvested area. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for soybeans was estimated at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, compared to $13.00 per bushel for 2013/14.

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 were deceased by 3 million bushels to 590 million bushels primarily due to an increase in exports, which were increased to 1.182 billion bushels.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. wheat supplies were projected at 660 million bushels, a 26 million bushel increase from 2013/14 due to lower residual feed use and greater production. The 2014/15 all wheat average price was estimated at $6.00 to $7.20 per bushel.

Outlook

With the recent release of the USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage reports on June 30th, there was little surprising news in this month's WASDE report. July weather is one of the most crucial variables the USDA tracks to estimate crop production. Weather conditions throughout the next few weeks, as corn pollinates, will be vital to the overall yield outlook.

The August WASDE will incorporate, for the first time this year, a farmer survey and an objective yield survey to estimate production. The farmer survey is a questionnaire and the objective yield survey is based on actual randomly selected field tests.

USDA Weekly Exports: Soybean Exports Hit 2014 Low

Jul 10, 2014

Last week’s USDA Stocks and Acreage report’s did not factor the severe weather seen in pockets of the Corn Belt during the month of June so analysts are eager for Friday’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. Tomorrow’s report will show if the USDA believes the flooding, hail, and strong wind across the Midwest had any significant impact on the overall corn and soybean crops for 2014. Looking forward, high temperatures in July are expected to be below average providing perfect weather for corn pollination, which is expected to start in the next five to seven days.

Corn and wheat sales increased, while wheat sales fell. Exports of corn and wheat increased, while soybean exports fell to their lowest level of 2014.

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending July 3rd in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 363,000 metrics tons (MT), a 25% increase from the previous week, but a 15% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from South Korea, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, Venezuela, and Peru. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations, China, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Exports were 1,207,100 MT, a 33% increase from the prior week and a 6% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, the Netherlands, Egypt, and Morocco.

Weekly net soybean sales in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 56,300 MT, a 39% increase from the previous week, but a 38% decrease from the 10 week average. Increases were reported from China, Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations. Exports were 89,500 MT, a 29% decrease from the prior week and a 50% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Taiwan.

Weekly net wheat sales for the week ending July 3rd in the 2014/2015 marketing year were 338,100 MT, a 40% decrease from the previous week, but a 26% increase from the prior 10 week average. Increases were reported from the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil, and Nigeria. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations, and the United Arab Emirates. Exports were 394,700 MT an 18% increase from the prior week, but a 23% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Venezuela, Jamaica, and Mexico.

7 10 14 Sales

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

7 10 14 Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

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