Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.
WASDE: World to Offset U.S. Corn Loss
Jun 12, 2013
The June WASDE offered minor changes to the May WASDE report. Corn prices have taken the biggest hit this month, as major rainfalls have stalled planting and put a strain on farmers. We expect reductions to the 2013/14 corn balance as the worse planting season in over 20 years isreflected by the USDA.
Increased competition from Brazil has caused the U.S. market to decrease its soybean exports. A decrease in wheat production have increased the price for wheat.
U.S. corn production for 2013/14 was estimated 135 million bushels lower to 14.0 billion bushels. Corn yields for the upcoming year were projected at 156.5 bushels per acre, a 1.5 bushel decrease from May's estimate. The decrease in yields is due to delays in planting in some of the highest producing corn states.
Planted acres were unchanged at 97.3 million acres and harvested acres at 89.5 million for the 2013/14 year. U.S. corn production for 2013/14 were estimated at 14.7 billion bushels, an increase of 2.6 billion from last year's drought stricken crop. The season average price for 2013/14 is projected at $4.40 to $5.20.
Feed and residual use was expected to decrease 125 million bushels year over year. Corn use for ethanol was increased by 50 million bushels for the 2013/14 marketing year. Exports for 2012/13 U.S. corn are projected at 50 million bushels lower due to the slow shipment and sales pace this year. The rainy weather in the Corn Belt has given South American competitors an advantage for early sales.
Global course grain supplies for 2013/14 were estimated to decrease 4.3 million metric tons from 2012/13, due to a reduction in U.S. and Chinese corn production. Brazil’s corn production was raised by 1.0 mmt, helping to offset the deficiency made by the U.S. and China.
U.S. 2013/14 soybean balance sheets remain unchanged this month. Changes for the U.S. in the 2012/13 year include increased soybean imports and crush, and a reduction in exports. An increase of 5 million bushels in imported soybeans brings the total soybean imports to 25 million bushels.
Exported soybeans were down 20 million bushels to 1.3 billion bushels in 2012/13. These low sales are due to increases in competition from Brazil. The projected season average price range for 2013/14 was $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel.
Global oilseed production in 2013/14 was decreased by 0.5 mmt from last month, to 490.8 mmt, due mainly to a decrease in soybean production from the Ukraine.
U.S. wheat supplies in 2013/14 were estimated at 2.956 billion bushels, a 5.7% decrease from 2012/13. U.S. wheat production was decreased by 8.3% compared to last year, to 2.08 billion bushels. Yields for the 2013/14 crop year were projected at 44.6 bushels per acre, a drop of 1.7 bushels from 2012/13. The season average wheat price for 2013/14 was estimated at $6.25 to $7.55 per bushel.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2013/14 was increased by 50 million bushels from last month's estimate, due to strong early season sales and a reduced foreign production outlook.
The June WASDE was relatively uneventful and markets will be turning to the USDA acreage and grain reports due for release at the end of June. The late planting season could be a precursor for poor corn pollination. We are closely monitoring the weather in the Corn Belt moving forward.
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