Fellow AgWeb blogger Steve Cornett did a effective, if not accurate, job of further spreading rumors the other day that the dairy “lobby” has been fishing for federal stimulus dollars to pay for some sort of government buyout.  To wit:

“You’d expect cattlemen of all stripes would get up in arms about a program that uses their taxes to subsidize dairy farmers to dump their beef into their already wrecked beef market.”

In fact, he only was repeating the party line of NCBA, which last week sent a call to action to beef producers, at least those presumably not producing dairy beef, asking them to tell their Senators not to provide any assistance to dairy farmers in the $800 billion stimulus bill now being finalized in Congress.

I must say I am rather surprised that, with the thousands of interest groups with a stake in the economic bailout, wild stories have resulted in this type of high-level media coverage on such a minor issue, given the gravity and heft of the stimulus package.  If you can’t access this insightful story in today’s Wall St. Journal, here’s the relevant section of it:

“The magnitude of the spending bill, and its urgency, drew a swarm of lobbyists seeking money and tax breaks. The concrete and asphalt industries battled over how the government should spend billions proposed for road and bridge repairs, while dairy and beef cattle producers butted heads over talk that the government might buy up dairy cattle for slaughter to drive up depressed milk prices. Unions backed infrastructure spending. States sought budget bailouts.

"When you've got 800-plus billion dollars to spend, you'll have an equal number of opinions on how it should be spent," said Chris Galen, spokesman for the National Milk Producers Federation, the dairy industry's main lobbying group.”

We at NMPF have been trying recently to disabuse the media (like this DC-based publication), as well as panicky ranchers, that there is no buyout, never has been, and we are not seeking one.  There IS, and has been since 2003, our private Cooperatives Working Together program, which is farmer-funded and farmer-driven.  And it will likely continue its herd reductions in 2009 – in fact, we’re still removing cows now from the national herd with CWT’s sixth herd retirement since the summer of `03.

Chasing ghosts, or wild geese, or dairy buyouts, may be a productive use of someone’s time.  At some point, however, you have to answer where the beef is. 

It ain’t here in this story.

One thing I can tell you for sure:  if something isn’t done to improve the overall economy, let alone help dairy farmers specifically, this financial crisis will result in plenty of cattle herds being liquidated as dairy farmers go under.  Strengthening the fiscal health of dairy producers is actually in the beef industry’s best interests, if their rhetoric about being sensitive to a decline in beef prices, due to fire-sale liquidations of dairy herds, is factual. 

You may have already seen a widely-circulated survey listing the best and worst jobs in America (setting aside momentarily the notion in this recession that the worst job of all is one you had, and lost).

This is a list compiled by JobsRated.com, which is a career advice and job-hunting website.  Their takeaway:  if you work with your head, you’re lucky.  If you work with your back, you’re unfortunate.

The best jobs almost all deal with data: mathematician, actuary, statistician, biologist and software engineer were the top five.

And the worst jobs? 

Well, at least dairy farmer wasn’t dead last, but it was #199 on the list of 200.  The last was lumberjack. The other bottom feeding final five were EMT, seaman, and taxi driver.  (Perhaps fellow AgWeb blogger Leigh Rubin is correcting in suggesting today that galley slave is yet even worse!)

Obviously, all of these types of internet rankings (Best and Worst movies; Best and Worst places to live, etc.) are incredibly subjective, even when they use a certain methodology to arrive at their scores.  The reason dairy farming scored so low had to do with the combination of long hours, lots of physical work in all kinds of weather, and low pay – just $33,000 per year, on average.

And there is a kernel of truth to those caveats.  Cows do need to be milked twice, and sometimes three, times of day, every day of the year.  No vacations, no holidays.  And they’re milked in every state, from Alaska to Florida.  And farming in general, not just dairy farming, is a physically-taxing job.  A significant number of dairy farmers are forced to hang it up when knees and backs have had all the cartilage and flexibility eroded out of them by years of tough use.

That said, many farmers have employees to help with the milking and the mucking, so they can continue to manage the affairs of the farm operation without having to be involved in every milking.  Most farms are multi-generational, so the folks with younger backs can help in the parlor, while the older folks sit on the tractor or at the desk chair.

In terms of compensation, I’m not sure exactly where the $33k annual income figure came from.  Certainly, there are farms, mostly smaller dairies, that in bad years will struggle to net that kind of sum.  Heck, given the way this year is shaping up, even bigger farms that employ multiple workers may think any kind of profit would be a Godsend.  But hasn’t farming always been a boom and bust line of work?

The bottom line is that the Jobsrated.com survey is really measuring two types of individuals.  There are those that calculate and measure risks, like the aforementioned statisticians and actuaries. Then, there are those that battle the risks on a daily basis, live and in person, including dairy farmers, but also EMTs, who literally have lives in their hands, or the Paul Bunyans of the world, who have to handle heavy and unpredictable timber. 

The great thing is that, unemployment rate aside, people have choices.  Some farmers, even the poorly-compensated ones with the aching knees, would be even more miserable running spread sheets on a PC every day.  If you’re doing what you like or even love, then hopefully, it hasn’t felt like work at the end of the day, even the longest day.  To each his own.

I’ve been fairly prolific, to the point of being repetitively boring, in talking about the rise and fall of the commodity boom, and what it means to rural America in particular.  Here are some postings from the past 12 months on the general topic:

Bubblicious Isn’t Just for Gum

Gee, That Was Quick!

The Empty Easter Egg Becomes Hollow Halloween Candy

The Hollow Chocolate Easter Nest Egg

A Green Christmas in Big Red Country

As the New Year began this week, I noticed that the New York Times – still one of the key arbiters of what’s Big News – also paid note of the same trend, focusing specifically on the recent plunge in dairy prices.  A story by Andrew Martin, “As Recession Deepens, So Does Milk Surplus,” can be found here.

This quote from the article basically sums up the point:

But now, demand for dairy products is stalling amid a global economic slowdown and credit crisis, even as supplies have increased. The result is a glut of milk — and its assorted byproducts, like milk powder, butter and whey proteins — that has led to a precipitous drop in prices.

I had spoken to Martin last month, prior to him writing the story, about what was happening in the global dairy markets, and how quickly demand was faltering in the face of increased international competition for milk exports, and of course the deepening recession.

I think the article actually understates just how dramatic that plunge has been.  Last spring, dairy prices for things like cheese and skim milk powder were at least double what they are today.  In just about six months’ time, prices have crashed dramatically.  Now, the same can be said for other commodities as well, ranging from corn to oil.  And measured as a percentage, their drops have indeed been larger. 

But you also have to consider where they were.  This past summer, when oil hit $145/barrel, and corn was $8/bushel, those were levels that had no historic precedent.  By contrast, the level milk prices reached this summer were less than what they’d been in the past.

Regardless of the math lesson, the net effect has been dramatic, and it’s going to hit dairy farmers like a tsunami in 2009.  Milk checks this spring will look meager indeed compared to a year ago, and while critics like Ken Cook (as quoted in the Times story) can whine about how government safety nets coddle farmers (“They don’t want to downsize or respond to the market signal”, he asserted), the fact is that there will be slew of downsizing, meaning farms selling out and banks recalling loans in the year ahead.  It’s just inevitable, and will mean farm families’ livelihoods will disappear, just like in the mortgage meltdown we’ve been witnessing across the country.

The irony with this boom and bust cycle is that we know with great certitude that there is always an inevitable down trough that is paired with the upward surge; it’s like the sun rising and setting.  But just as inevitably, we always seem surprised when it arrives, and with how suddenly the damage gets inflicted.