Sep 18, 2014
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Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

The downtrend continues in corn!

Sep 12, 2014

This week the market continued its downtrend after the USDA increased corn yield to 171.7 bushels per acre and left the door open for yield to increase in the October Supply/Demand report. Many analysts will be looking for a 174 yield but we are of the opinion that the low will not be in until the actual production figures come out in January. We are setting ourselves up for a continued bear trend with a sideways to range bound corn market until spring. Carry will increase, basis will stay wide and bear spreads or time value positions will be the strategies of choice.

Looking at the December continuous corn chart above, support at the 2010 $3.4325 low was broken this week implying the $3.02 low is now strong support. Without some weather event globally or frost scare there is the potential to go to this level.

Producers, who still have unsold bushels, look to sell on any rally and buy calls on fall lows to enhance revenue. Now is when you should be making any marketing decisions prior to harvest. If you have any questions, call our office.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

 

SOURCE: CME   Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

Today is a warning for the bulls!

Sep 10, 2014

Harvest talk is beginning with many producers looking at better than expected yields and the potential for a surplus of unsold bushels. There will always be areas with spotty yields, too much moisture or late planting jitters with the potential for an early frost but the crop is out there and just how big is anyone’s guess. Next week the weather forecast is bearish towards the grains with warm temperatures throughout most of the growing areas. With each week that passes now through September, the threat of frost expectations will diminish and once again the trade’s focus will be on the growing supply.

Many are looking for the USDA to increase yield at the October Supply/Demand report which should set the tone for a sideways trading market until the market receives some form of news to suggest supply is being reduced. In our estimation, we see the low in corn being set in the cash market and the futures not moving much below the $3.50 level. There is more downside potential in soybeans with $10.16 being the next line of support. If that is broken there is the potential to go to the $9.55 level.

Now is when you should be making any marketing decisions prior to harvest. Between now and the end of October, we will be implementing buying strategies to help pay for 2015 hedges. If you have any questions, call our office.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

Sufficient Moisture for the Last Stages Before Harvest

Aug 29, 2014

Harvest talk is beginning with many producers looking at better than expected yields and the potential for a surplus of unsold bushels. There will always be areas with spotty yields, too much moisture or late planting jitters with the potential for an early frost but the crop is out there and just how big is anyone’s guess. Next week the weather forecast is bearish towards the grains with warm temperatures throughout most of the growing areas. With each week that passes now through September, the threat of frost expectations will diminish and once again the trade’s focus will be on the growing supply.

Many are looking for the USDA to increase yield at the October Supply/Demand report which should set the tone for a sideways trading market until the market receives some form of news to suggest supply is being reduced. In our estimation, we see the low in corn being set in the cash market and the futures not moving much below the $3.50 level. There is more downside potential in soybeans with $10.16 being the next line of support. If that is broken there is the potential to go to the $9.55 level.

Now is when you should be making any marketing decisions prior to harvest. Between now and the end of October, we will be implementing buying strategies to help pay for 2015 hedges. If you have any questions, call our office.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

The Downtrend Continues in Soybeans

Aug 22, 2014

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

 

November 2014 soybean continued their downtrend this week due to warmer weather, additional rains throughout the Midwest and the thought that this soybean crop is growing in yield. As you can see in the chart the first line of support is $10.16 with the potential to go to the $9.55.
Producers, who still have unsold bushels, look to sell on any rally and buy calls on fall lows to enhance revenue. Now is when you should be making any marketing decisions prior to harvest. If you have any questions, call our office.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

Implications on corn after the August Supply/Demand Report.

Aug 14, 2014

In many ways, the USDA did many producers a favor by implying yields on the low side of expectations. Historically big crops grow so we have to assume yield will probably end up at the 170 to 171 level if no weather event is seen. So using the figures the USDA have provided us, if the corn yield is at 164.4 bushels per acre and input costs at $690.59 per acre, breakeven would be at $4.20 a bushel. In order to make 5% return on investment for this year’s corn production, one would have to have sold their production already at $4.41. The bear is here and for the time being not unless a weather event is seen in the near future, there is no reason for these markets to go higher.

Where does this leave the producer? Those who have to sell off the combine will be scrambling to find alternatives to enhance revenue. Many will say to themselves, I can handle one year of not making money but what if we are in a sideways to long-term bear market. What do you do?
Now, before harvest, is when one should be discussing marketing strategies and how to manage risk for the next several years. The bull was fun and producers loved the prices received for their production but now one has to survive the bear!

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (765)376-4476) or (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

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