Jul 31, 2014
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April 2014 Archive for Outlook Today

RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Grain Markets Closed Higher

Apr 25, 2014

May options went off the board today with the markets closing close to near-term highs. Interesting to note November 2014 soybeans opened the week at $12.38 and closed today at $12.39, one could say the market is range bound with the low for the week coming in at $12.08 and the high at $12.435 for a range of $.355. Look for the markets to be mixed next week with rain and cool temperatures in the forecast for much of the Midwest. On Monday we could potentially see 1 to 2 % planting progress on soybeans and a major increase on corn plantings. In our estimation we could see 15 to 20 % done in corn.

November 2014 Soybeans

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

 

December 2014 Corn

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

 

December corn opened the week at $4.955 and closed today at $5.062 with a $.225 range. Look for exports and crop progress to show trend next week. At these levels one should take advantage and make new sales if none have been made. One should also take this opportunity to roll any puts up closer in-the-money if possible.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

 

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

 

 

Grains mixed on a 4-day week . . . Happy Easter!

Apr 17, 2014

The Monday crop progress report showed corn plantings at 3%. This week snow and cooler temperatures were seen throughout parts of the upper United States. We’ve heard from some clients in Kentucky and southern Illinois of corn being planted this week and with that being said in our opinion the Crop Progress should show approximately 10% to 12% completion. Temperatures are on the rise and weather permitting [i.e. too much rain] corn will get planted. The questions one should be asking now: Could cool temperatures in the northern states and November 2014 soybeans futures above $12 cause a shift in acreage? Will some producers switch? The answer will not be seen before the Actual Acreage report in late June.

Wheat continues to rally on conflicts in the Ukraine and the potential frost scare. One must be careful, producers with unhedged production; an opportunity was given this week to sell above $7. Be sure to take advantage when these opportunities arise. If Monday’s Crop Progress report does not show any deterioration in wheat, one would have to assume it may be difficult for July wheat to go back above $7.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

Spring Is Here, Along with Market Volatility

Apr 11, 2014

Currently the markets are as volatile as producers are concerned about planting and weather. Here in the Lafayette, Ind., area we are wet looking forward to the 70’s this weekend only to go back to the 50’s by Monday with a chance of frost. For many producers the ground is still too cold but I just heard from a producer in Kentucky who is planting corn today. We all know the corn crop will get planted and not unless we see a weather event this summer, carryover will more than likely end up above 1.6 billion with a chance to increase rather than decrease implying carry will come back into the market. Look to using the spreads in order to capture carry and enhance revenue. The Monday crop progress report will begin to report corn plantings and in our opinion show approximately 5% complete.

This week we saw a 19 cent move in December corn with the low at $4.98 and the high coming in at $5.17. It may be difficult for December 2014 corn to move above $5.17 unless we see continued strong exports or delayed plantings.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.
 

 

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

Market Recap!

Apr 04, 2014

After receiving the planting intention and grain stocks figures on Monday, one would have thought by Friday we would have seen more direction to this market and yet I sense more uneasiness from people calling in than I did before the report and the bottom line is it all comes down to weather.

USDA said on Monday that corn acres would be at 91.691 million acres and ending stocks at 7.006, both reports were considered bullish with the market passing through upside objectives and making a high of $5.082 on Tuesday, April 1. For the rest of the week the market was mixed and could not surpass Tuesday’s high on bullish news and concerns regarding weather as well. This time last year many of you were already in the field.

Throughout much of the Midwest rains are expected every couple of days and ground temperatures are still too cold. Now the way it looks many will not be able to do any form of fieldwork for the next two weeks. So why is corn flat to range bound? It is still too early and corn can still be planted within the optimum time period for good yields.

Soybeans on the other hand saw bearish numbers and November soybeans went above $12 this week. Planting intentions came in at 81.49 million acres, higher than trade expectations, weather is seen as being bearish to soybeans and stocks were not as tight as anticipated coming in at 992 million bushels.

So what does all of this mean? For those of you who have not made any production sales, an opportunity to do so above $5 may be available here in the next 30 days and for others it is a time of reflection to make any changes in your marketing plan if needed. One must also look at ahead at the 2015 production and look for opportunities to hedge future production at levels above input costs.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.

 

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

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