Sep 17, 2014
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RSS By: Bob Utterback, Farm Journal

Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.

Corn Unable to Trend Higher

Jan 17, 2014

Corn continues its sideways trading pattern unable to break out to the upside. Seasonally this is the time period when bin doors shut and corn moves higher on the premise of fighting for acres. With sufficient supply, there is no reason for the market to show direction one way or another. Corn exports were up and there was a forecast of decreased production in Argentina and the market could only close up $.0125 from the previous week’s high. The trend is definitely sideways until a weather event is seen. A move above $4.62 would give the potential for the market to go back to the December high of $4.686 with the next line of resistance at $4.782.

One should be watching the U.S. Dollar, the March Dollar index closed today at 81.362 and a break above November’s high of 81.56 would imply the potential to move back to the 83.00 level. This would be bearish for all grain exports here in the United States.

We know we sound like a broken record but 2014 is not going to be easy making marketing decisions for corn when prices are at these levels and the crop is not even planted. Producers will have to be diversified in their selling and defend their decisions if the market moves in the wrong direction. It is our intent to recommend hold all short futures positions in the deferred May 2015 contract in an effort to benefit from positive adjustments in the Sep 2014/May2015 spread seasonally suggested from now into spring.

To help producers develop, implement and monitor the various risk management opportunities ahead, we are starting a consultation service where we merge crop insurance with cash sales, options and futures strategies to evaluate and manage risk. If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management program and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.


THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.

 

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