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June 2010 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE - 483

Jun 30, 2010



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WASDE - 483            June 30, 2010

Looks like corn and soybeans will open $.20 to $.25 higher.

NOTE:  Because spring planting is still under way in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat area, yield and production. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.

OILSEEDS: This month's U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2010/11 include a small reduction in beginning and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush projections for 2009/10. Soybean crush for 2009/10 is raised 5 million bushels to 1.74 billion, reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are projected at a record 11.5 million short tons, almost 2 million above the previous record, set in 1997/98. Lower domestic soybean meal consumption partly offsets the increase in exports. Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 185 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are also reduced 5 million bushels, to 360 million.

Soybean, meal and oil price projections are unchanged this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices for 2010/11 are projected at $230 to $270 per short ton and 34 cents to 38 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.2 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, mainly due to higher peanut production. China's peanut production is raised 0.9 million tons to 14.8 million tons based on higher area and yield. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 21 million, mainly due to lower area resulting from flooding, especially in Poland, in May. Other changes include increased soybean production for Ukraine and reduced soybean production for China based on lower area.  Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is increased 1 million tons to a record 69 million, reflecting increased harvested area and record yields.

U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected 135 million bushels higher as increased FSI use more than offsets a reduction in expected feed and residual use. Corn use for ethanol is raised 150 million bushels, reflecting the continued record pace of ethanol production and usage through March based on the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Higher ethanol production is also supported by record production of gasoline blends with ethanol, as indicated by weekly data from EIA through May, and forecasts for rising gasoline demand during the summer driving season. Corn use is raised 5 million bushels each for starch and glucose/dextrose as the gradual economic recovery spurs production of these products. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased availability of distillers' grains.

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 135 million bushels lower. At 1,603 million bushels, this year's ending stocks would be down 70 million from 2008/09. The projected 2009/10 farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.65 per bushel based on prices reported to date. Other 2009/10 feed grain changes include a 10-million-bushel increase in projected sorghum exports, a 3-million-bushel reduction in barley imports and a 3-million-bushel increase in oats imports. The 2009/10 sorghum farm price is lowered in line with that for corn.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 5.3 million tons lower, with the largest share of the decline resulting from lower expected corn carry-in in the U.S. Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is lowered 1.4 million tons as higher corn production is more than offset by reductions in barley, oats, rye and mixed grains, mostly reflecting reduced crop prospects in EU-27. 

Flooding in Eastern Europe and dryness during April and May in France have reduced expected coarse grains yields in these regions. Global corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as a 1.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, based on higher reported area, is only partly offset by reductions for Mexico and EU-27. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico as dryness has persisted in eastern and central growing areas during May. EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons as heavy May rains have delayed field work, reducing expected area and yields in Eastern Europe.

Major global corn production changes for 2009/10 this month include a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina, which is nearly offset by reductions for the Philippines and Brazil. Argentina production is raised on higher reported area. The Philippines production is lowered 0.8 million tons based on government reports that indicate lower harvested area and yields. Production for Brazil is lowered 0.5 million tons as the early end to central Brazil's rainy season reduces second season corn yields.

Global corn trade is raised for both 2009/10 and 2010/11. Higher corn trade for 2009/10 reflects increased imports by China and Vietnam and higher exports by Argentina. Higher corn trade for 2010/11 is based on higher expected imports by Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines. Exports for 2010/11 are raised for Argentina and Ukraine. Global corn consumption is raised 4 million tons for 2010/11, mostly reflecting higher use in the U.S. Corn feeding is also raised for Ukraine and Vietnam. With reduced carry-in and increased consumption, global corn ending stocks are projected down 6.9 million tons. At 147.3 million tons, stocks are up 3.9 million tons from 2009/10, but just below those for 2008/09.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are increased slightly this month as higher production is mostly offset by lower carry-in. Winter wheat production is forecast 24 million bushels higher, mostly on higher hard red winter wheat. Winter wheat yields were raised in the Central and Northern Plains and in the Pacific Northwest. Beginning stocks are projected 20 million bushels lower as strong exports of wheat, flour and products during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year boost 2009/10 exports 20 million bushels. Domestic use for 2010/11 is projected 10 million bushels higher as lower prices encourage more wheat feeding. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 6 million bushels  lower, but remain up year-to-year and the highest since 1987/88. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, down from $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel last month. Recent declines in futures prices and lower-than-expected protein levels in hard red winter wheat have sharply reduced price prospects for many producers.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 4.1 million tons lower this month with reduced carry-in and production. Lower beginning stocks mostly reflect reductions for EU-27, the U.S. and Brazil as 2009/10 exports are raised for all three. Global production for 2010/11 is lowered 3.7 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Syria, Turkey and Russia. EU-27 production is lowered 2.1 million tons, reflecting crop damage from recent flooding and heavy rains in Eastern Europe and April and May dryness in northwest France and the United Kingdom. Production for Syria and Turkey are lowered 1.3 and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as widespread outbreaks of yellow rust have sharply reduced yield prospects in key growing areas of both countries. Russia production is lowered 0.5 million tons as reports of higher-than-expected winterkill, particularly in the Volga Valley, reduce potential harvested area. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine as recent rains have improved yield prospects.

Global wheat trade for 2010/11 is raised, with world imports up 2.0 million tons. Import increases include Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Exports are raised for Kazakhstan, Australia, Ukraine and India. World wheat consumption is nearly unchanged as a 1.0-million-ton increase in China wheat feeding is offset by the same size reduction for EU-27. Wheat consumption is also lowered for Iraq and Brazil, but raised for Afghanistan. Global ending stocks are projected 4.2 million tons lower, at 193.9 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are expected to be up 1.0 million tons from beginning stocks.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain production for 2010/11 is unchanged, but smaller carry-in for corn, sorghum and barley is expected to reduce domestic feed grain supplies. Corn food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is projected 110 million bushels higher for 2010/11, mostly in line with higher projected corn use for ethanol, sweeteners and starch for 2009/10. Higher use, combined with lower beginning stocks, drops projected 2010/11 corn ending stocks 245 million bushels to 1,573 million. The season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel. Projected 2010/11 farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

RICE: U.S. rice supplies in 2010/11 are lowered 3.0 million cwt. as beginning stocks are reduced 2.0 million and imports lowered by 1.0 million. Two changes in the 2009/10 supply and use forecasts resulted in a change in 2010/11 beginning stocks. First, imports in 2009/10 are lowered by 1.0 million cwt. due to a slower-than-expected pace based on U.S. Census Bureau data through March. Second, domestic and residual use for 2009/10 is raised by 1.0 million cwt., based largely on weekly millings data through mid-May reported by the USA Rice Federation. Imports for 2010/11 are projected at 21.0 million cwt., down 1.0 million from last month, based mostly on the downward adjustment for 2009/10. The U.S. 2010/11 rice production projection is unchanged at a record 244.0 million cwt.

Total use for 2010/11 is raised 3.0 million cwt. to a record 248.0 million due to increases in both domestic and residual use and exports. Domestic and residual use is raised 1.0 million cwt. to a record 139.0 million, based in part on the increase made for 2009/10. Projected 2010/11 exports are raised 2.0 million cwt. -- all in long-grain rice -- to 109.0 million. The upward revision is partly based on larger expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets. The rough rice export projection is raised to a record 45.0 million cwt., while combined milled and brown rice (on a rough-equivalent basis) is unchanged at 64.0 million cwt. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 45.4 million cwt., down 6 million or 12% from a month ago, but up 17 million or 60% from 2009/10.

The 2010/11 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $9.75 to $10.75 per cwt., down 25 cents per cwt. on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt., unchanged from a month ago. The 2010/11 all rice price is projected at $10.95 to $11.95 per cwt., down 20 cents per cwt. on each end of the range. Prices for both classes of rice are projected to be well below 2009/10 levels, mainly due to large domestic and global supplies and lower Asian prices.

Global 2010/11 rice supply and use is nearly unchanged from a month ago. Global production is projected at a record 459.4 million tons, down 0.3 million, primarily due to a decrease for Colombia. The global trade forecast is nearly unchanged from a month ago. Global consumption is projected at a record 452.8 million tons, down 0.6 million, due mostly to declines in Bangladesh, Colombia and the Philippines. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 96.3 million tons, down 0.4 million, but up 6.6 million or about 7% from 2009/10.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2010/11 show slightly lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are reduced 200,000 bales due to an increase in the export forecast for 2009/10. Projections of production, domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. 

Accordingly, ending stocks are revised down to 2.8 million bales, equal to 17% of total use and the smallest stocks level since 1995/96. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers remains at 60 to 74 cents per pound.

World projections for 2010/11 also include lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are reduced about 550,000 bales as higher stocks forecast for China are more than offset by reductions in Turkey, India, the U.S., Pakistan, Brazil and others.

Production is raised for Australia, Sudan and Mexico, while consumption is raised for Pakistan and Turkey. The resulting global stocks level of 49.6 million bales is 41.5% of total use, which, if realized, would be the smallest stocks-to-use ratio since 1994/95.

The world and U.S. estimates also include revisions for 2009/10 from last month. World beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, mainly in Turkey. World consumption is raised about 500,000 bales, due to adjustments for Pakistan and Turkey, where analysis suggests that ending stocks will be tighter than previously estimated. Imports are raised for China and Turkey, while exports are raised for the U.S. and India, reflecting activity to date. The forecast for the U.S. average price received by producers of 61.5 cents to 63.5 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent on the upper end of the range.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is decreased 80,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks. Sugar use is unchanged. For 2009/10, U.S. sugar imports under the re-export program are increased 50,000 tons, while sugar use is increased 130,000 tons, all based on pace-to-date. Exports are increased 50,000 tons and domestic deliveries are increased 80,000 tons (55,000 for domestic use, 25,000 for re-export products). For Mexico, higher 2009/10 production more than offsets lower imports. This increase in supply is offset by higher domestic use.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY AND DAIRY: Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly. The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter. Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second-quarter slaughter. Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the first quarter. Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally. There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly, but broiler production is unchanged.

Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data. Broiler exports for 2010 are raised, as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected. Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month, as demand has slackened. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered. Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. 

Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month, reflecting a slower decline in cow numbers and stronger expected growth in milk per cow. Milk production for 2011 is unchanged. Exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised on both a fat and skim solids basis. Product exports were higher than expected in the first quarter of 2010, and with generally tight world supplies, U.S. exports are expected to remain strong into 2011. Import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011. Imports are reduced largely because of smaller-than-expected cheese imports in first quarter 2010 and expectations that imports will remain weak into 2011 due to relatively low U.S. prices and tight world supplies.

 

USDA #s

 

June 30, 2010

 

  

 

June 1, 2010 Grains & Soybean Stocks Estimates (Billion Bushels)

 

  

Today's USDA Estimate

Average Trade Analyst Estimate

Range of Trade Analysts Estimates

2010 March 1 USDA Stocks

2009 June 1 USDA Stocks

Informa Estimates

 

Wheat

0.973

0.938

0.929-0.948

1.352

0.657

0.942

 

Corn

4.310

4.613

4.459-4.784

7.694

4.261

4.540

 

Soybeans

0.571

0.592

0.575-0.620

1.270

0.596

0.602

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Planted Area Estimates (Million Acres)

 

Today's USDA Estimate

Change from March Intentions

Average of Trade Analyst Estimates

Range of Trade Analysts Estimates

USDA March 30 Estimate

USDA 2009 Planted Acres Final

Informa Estimates

Corn

87.872

(0.926)

89.302

88.100-90.153

88.798

86.5

89.32

Soybean

78.868

0.770

78.292

76.528-79.600

78.098

77.5

78.85

All-Wheat

54.305

0.478

53.774

53.000-54.200

53.827

59.1

53.75

Spring Wheat

13.907

0.001

13.693

13.056-13.925

13.906

13.3

13.46

Durum

2.675

0.452

2.260

2.100-2.400

2.223

2.6

2.60

All-Cotton

10.910

0.40

10.75

10.51-11.00

10.51

9.15

10.58

 

 

 

 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

         

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 6/16/10

Jun 17, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 6/15/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 6/16/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

July Soybeans

After the close on 6/16/10: My resistance  was 9.61 3/4, the exact actual high, and the pivot acted as support and was 9.46, .03 from the actual low

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9.70                          near Downtrend Line Resistance                             

9.61 3/4                             

-------------9.46        Pivot

9.30 1/2 XX                  

9.20 XX                   Key Support at bracket line  

  

Trend                   

5 day chart...      Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.78 1/2 is the 200 DMA

ATR 16 1/2        Balanced 65%


I continue to say "Key support is at the bracket line at 9.20. Last 3 week's high is resistance".             "Bulls will be trying to recapture the long term uptrend line, and then they will want to retest the downtrend line resistance. I added the steep downtrend line that coupled with the uptrend line will make $9.52 pivotal".

The crisscross of trend lines is pivotal for Wednesday.

July Soybeans for 6/16/10: 

In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .03 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .02 1/2 from the actual low.

 Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.  

Grains: Spot on grain numbers! Bulls had to be disappointed in the performance of soybeans, and as far as the chart is concerned it closed right on support of the crisscross of trend lines. They are up in the night session which is slightly encouraging. Corn has not been able to get the buy stops above $3.55 which was a little hard to for me to believe when soybeans had good gains. Since I think we are trading sideways for the remainder of this week, they still have a chance to do so and maybe test $3.61, if they did get there I would want to sell and risk no more than $.04.

Bottom line is the same as before, we are not going anywhere the next week or two, we should trade maybe $.10 or $.15 higher and lower from here in corn and $.20 higher and lower from here in soybeans. I prefer to take the sell signals at resistances, and not take the buy signals.

July Soybeans for 6/15/10:

  Grains: Spot on grain numbers all off less than $.01. I did not like the fact that July corn could not even get the buy stops above $3.55 let alone close above it. As I write corn is down $.02 which is not a good sign considering my pivot today is $3.52 and we are just below there as I write. (1 day trial did not get the numbers sent before part 1.)

The feel at this time of the year no matter the price is that the "what if" is always on a grain traders mind. That truly is in play but I want to remind you once again, the weather has already and continues to add on or take off "premium" day by day or week by week. The premium being the last price is trading at corn's (and grains) value and has added extra value for the possibility for a shortfall. Maybe corn would be worth $.20 less if we got through pollination without shortfall, and maybe another $.20 lower if the crop looks above average. Then we will play the early frost game, and then it will be a guessing game until we find the actual yield and production.

You can read from the market reporters about the PRC, Canadian weather, or the fact that with Monday's weekly crop production ratings for corn was the best in 76 years, but for me, I will trade these markets strictly by the chart, and let the fundamentals and "what if" be a bias at best. Depending on the chart location, I will adjust my type of trade from day trade to swing trade. You can see when the market is near a longer term resistance I want to sell to take profits if long, or a place to initiate a sell to go short. The opposite when at a longer term support where I would want to buy. Older subscribers know how I use the charts for location, and how I use the daily numbers on the days I want to day trade, or on the day when I want to enter or exit a swing or long term trade.

Bottom Line: I am bearish soybeans and corn and want to sell rallies when at resistance. I do not want to take the buy signals unless at bracket line supports, and then for only a $.10 or $.15 correction as I have said in the past. I am looking at only swing trades for small gains but would keep a small longer term short position.

  July Soybeans for 6/14/10:

  Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and not helpful soybean numbers unless you used the 1/2 way rule which was spot on both sides. I liked the way grains finished the week in the plus column, and corn closing near their high, although they could not hurdle my first resistance.

I have the exact same thoughts as I said in yesterday's comments. I would still like to sell resistance levels in soybeans and corn. Funds continue to liquidate their long positions in grains by about 70,000 contracts across the 3 grain markets in the week ending 6/8/10, even though Fund allocation had inflows of $3 billion in the month of May, mostly into precious metals. If we do get adverse weather on the horizon, I expect sidelined money to come quickly back into the shark frenzy of the "what if" crowd.   

Producers: Just to give you an idea of what December 2011 corn is going for if you wanted to hedge protecting from $4 to $3, getting your corn back at $5, for a cost of $.11 1/2 plus 4 cents in commissions. This means you have locked in $3.84 1/2 for your corn, and you no longer care what the market does between $3 and $5 until you get the crop out of the ground. Whatever you make or lose from the $3.84 1/2 in your hedge account, is offset by the grain in the bin. If above $5 you get your crop back, and below $3 you have no protection. At any time you can get bullish or bearish or adjust your position. The producers that have been with me since last year before planting know well of the opportunities using options, and how they can improve your original hedge price, and at the same time able to have a good deal of protection to the downside. Having the right to unlimited upside and at the same time being fully protected from $3.84 1/2 to $3 is worth the $.15 1/2 price tag. This strategy also provides a known margin requirement at the time of the hedge and cannot increase no matter how high they market can rally or go down.  

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

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Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

WASDE Report 6/10/10

Jun 10, 2010



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Early Opening Calls $.05 to $.10 higher Soybeans and Corn, Wheat up $.02.

WASDE Report 6/10/10

OILSEEDS:  This month's U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2010/11 include a small reduction in beginning and ending stocks.  Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush projections for 2009/10.  Soybean crush for 2009/10 is raised 5 million bushels to 1.74 billion reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports.  Soybean meal exports are projected at record 11.5 million short tons, almost 2 million above the previous record set in 1997/98.  Lower domestic soybean meal consumption partly offsets the increase in exports.  Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 185 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are also reduced 5 million bushels to 360 million.

Soybean, meal, and oil price projections are unchanged this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel.  Soybean meal and oil prices for 2010/11 are projected at $230 to $270 per short ton and 34 to 38 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.2 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, mainly due to higher peanut production.  China’s peanut production is raised 0.9 million tons to 14.8 million tons based on higher area and yield.  EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 21 million mainly due to lower area resulting from flooding, especially in Poland, in May.  Other changes include increased soybean production for Ukraine, and reduced soybean production for China based on lower area.  Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is increased 1 million tons to a record 69 million reflecting increased harvested area and record yields.

NOTE:  Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative.  National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production.  For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage.  Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are increased slightly this month as higher production is mostly offset by lower carry in.  Winter wheat production is forecast 24 million bushels higher mostly on higher Hard Red Winter wheat.  Winter wheat yields were raised in the central and northern Plains and in the Pacific Northwest.  Beginning stocks are projected 20 million bushels lower as strong exports of wheat, flour, and products during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year boost 2009/10 exports 20 million bushels. Domestic use for 2010/11 is projected 10 million bushels higher as lower prices encourage more wheat feeding. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 6 million bushels lower, but remain up year-to-year and the highest since 1987/88.  The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, down from $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel last month.  Recent declines in futures prices and lower-than-expected protein levels in Hard Red Winter wheat have sharply reduced price prospects for many producers.

 

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 4.1 million tons lower this month with reduced carry in and production.  Lower beginning stocks mostly reflect reductions for EU-27, the United States, and Brazil as 2009/10 exports are raised for all three.  Global production for 2010/11 is lowered 3.7 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Syria, Turkey, and Russia.  EU-27 production is lowered 2.1 million tons reflecting crop damage from recent flooding and heavy rains in Eastern Europe and April and May dryness in northwest France and the United Kingdom.  Production for Syria and Turkey are lowered 1.3 and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as widespread outbreaks of yellow rust have sharply reduced yield prospects in key growing areas of both countries. 

Russia production is lowered 0.5 million tons as reports of higher-than-expected winter kill, particularly in the Volga Valley, reduce potential harvested area.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine as recent rains have improved yield prospects.

 

Global wheat trade for 2010/11 is raised with world imports up 2.0 million tons.  Import increases include Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh.  Exports are raised for Kazakhstan, Australia, Ukraine, and India.  World wheat consumption is nearly unchanged as a 1.0-million-ton increase in China wheat feeding is offset by the same size reduction for EU-27.  Wheat consumption is also lowered for Iraq and Brazil, but raised for Afghanistan.  Global ending stocks are projected 4.2 million tons lower at 193.9 million tons.  Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are expected to be up 1.0 million tons from beginning stocks.

 

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected U.S. feed grain production for 2010/11 is unchanged, but smaller carryin for corn, sorghum, and barley is expected to reduce domestic feed grain supplies.  Corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected 110 million bushels higher for 2010/11, mostly in line with higher projected corn use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch for 2009/10.  Higher use, combined with lower beginning stocks, drops projected 2010/11 corn ending stocks 245 million bushels to 1,573 million.  The season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel.  Projected 2010/11 farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected 135 million bushels higher as increased FSI use more than offsets a reduction in expected feed and residual use.  Corn use for ethanol is raised 150 million bushels reflecting the continued record pace of ethanol production and usage through March based on the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  Higher ethanol production is also supported by record production of gasoline blends with ethanol as indicated by weekly data from EIA through May and forecasts for rising gasoline demand during the summer driving season.  Corn use is raised 5 million bushels each for starch and glucose/dextrose as the gradual economic recovery spurs production of these products.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased availability of distillers’ grains.

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 135 million bushels lower.  At 1,603 million bushels, this year’s ending stocks would be down 70 million from 2008/09.  The projected 2009/10 farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.65 per bushel based on prices reported to date.  Other 2009/10 feed grain changes include a 10-million-bushel increase in projected sorghum exports, a 3-million-bushel reduction in barley imports, and a 3-million-bushel increase in oats imports.  The 2009/10 sorghum farm price is lowered in line with that for corn.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 5.3 million tons lower with the largest share of the decline resulting from lower expected corn carry in the United States.  Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is lowered 1.4 million tons as higher corn production is more than offset by reductions in barley, oats, rye, and mixed grains mostly reflecting reduced crop prospects in EU-27. 

Flooding in Eastern Europe and dryness during April and May in France have reduced expected coarse grains yields in these regions.  Global corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as a 1.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, based on higher reported area, is only partly offset by reductions for Mexico and EU-27.  Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico as dryness has persisted in eastern and central growing areas during May.  EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons as heavy May rains have delayed field work, reducing expected area and yields in Eastern Europe.

 

Major global corn production changes for 2009/10 this month include a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina, which is nearly offset by reductions for the Philippines and Brazil.  Argentina production is raised on higher reported area.  The Philippines production is lowered 0.8 million tons based on government reports that indicate lower harvested area and yields.  Production for Brazil is lowered 0.5 million tons as the early end to central Brazil’s rainy season reduces second season corn yields.

Global corn trade is raised for both 2009/10 and 2010/11.  Higher corn trade for 2009/10 reflects increased imports by China and Vietnam and higher exports by Argentina.  Higher corn trade for 2010/11 is based on higher expected imports by Mexico, Vietnam, and the Philippines.  Exports for 2010/11 are raised for Argentina and Ukraine.  Global corn consumption is raised 4 million tons for 2010/11 mostly reflecting higher use in the United States.  Corn feeding is also raised for Ukraine and Vietnam.  With reduced carryin and increased consumption, global corn ending stocks are projected down 6.9 million tons.  At 147.3 million tons, stocks are up 3.9 million tons from 2009/10, but just below those for 2008/09.

RICE:  U.S. rice supplies in 2010/11 are lowered 3.0 million cwt as beginning stocks are reduced 2.0 million and imports lowered by 1.0 million.  Two changes in the 2009/10 supply and use forecasts resulted in a change in 2010/11 beginning stocks.  First, imports in 2009/10 are lowered by 1.0 million cwt due to a slower-than-expected pace based on U.S. Census Bureau data through March.  And second, domestic and residual use for 2009/10 is raised by 1.0 million cwt based largely on weekly millings data through mid-May reported by the USA Rice Federation.  Imports for 2010/11 are projected at 21.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month based mostly on the downward adjustment for 2009/10.  The U.S. 2010/11 rice production projection is unchanged at a record 244.0 million cwt.

Total use for 2010/11 is raised 3.0 million cwt to a record 248.0 million due to increases in both domestic and residual use and exports.  Domestic and residual use is raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 139.0 million based in part on the increase made for 2009/10.  Projected 2010/11 exports are raised 2.0 million cwt—all in long-grain rice—to 109.0 million. The upward revision is partly based on larger expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets.  The rough rice export projection is raised to a record 45.0 million cwt, while combined milled and brown rice (on a rough-equivalent basis) is unchanged at 64.0 million cwt.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 45.4 million cwt, down 6 million or 12 percent from a month ago, but up 17 million or 60 percent from 2009/10.

The 2010/11 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $9.75 to $10.75 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.  The 2010/11 all rice price is projected at $10.95 to $11.95 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  Prices for both classes of rice are projected to be well below 2009/10 levels, mainly due to large domestic and global supplies and lower Asian prices.

Global 2010/11 rice supply and use is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Global production is projected at a record 459.4 million tons, down 0.3 million, primarily due to a decrease for Colombia. The global trade forecast is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Global consumption is projected at a record 452.8 million tons, down 0.6 million, due mostly to declines in Bangladesh, Colombia, and the Philippines.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 96.3 million tons, down 0.4 million, but up 6.6 million or about 7 percent from 2009/10.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is decreased 80,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks.  Sugar use is unchanged. For 2009/10, U.S. sugar imports under the re-export program are increased 50,000 tons while sugar use is increased 130,000 tons, all based on pace-to-date.  Exports are increased 50,000 tons and domestic deliveries are increased 80,000 tons (55,000 for domestic use, 25,000 for re-export products).  For Mexico, higher 2009/10 production more than offsets lower imports.  This increase in supply is offset by higher domestic use.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly.  The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter.  Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second-quarter slaughter.  Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the first quarter.  Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally.  There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011.  The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly but broiler production is unchanged.

Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data.  Broiler exports for 2010 are raised as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected.  Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand has slackened.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered.  Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. 

Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month reflecting a slower decline in cow numbers and stronger expected growth in milk per cow.  Milk production for 2011 is unchanged.  Exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised on both a fat and skim solids basis.  Product exports were higher than expected in the first quarter of 2010, and with generally tight world supplies, U.S. exports are expected to remain strong into 2011.  Import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.  Imports are reduced largely because of smaller-than-expected cheese imports in the first-quarter 2010 and expectations that imports will remain weak into 2011 due to relatively low U.S. prices and tight world supplies.

COTTON:  The U.S. cotton projections for 2010/11 show slightly lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month.  Beginning stocks are reduced 200,000 bales due to an increase in the export forecast for 2009/10.  Projections of production, domestic mill use, and exports are unchanged.  Accordingly, ending stocks are revised down to 2.8 million bales, equal to 17 percent of total use and the smallest stocks level since 1995/96.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers remains at 60 to 74 cents per pound.

World projections for 2010/11 also include lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month.  Beginning stocks are reduced about 550,000 bales as higher stocks forecast for China are more than offset by reductions in Turkey, India, the United States, Pakistan, Brazil, and others.  Production is raised for Australia, Sudan, and Mexico, while consumption is raised for Pakistan and Turkey. The resulting global stocks level of 49.6 million bales is 41.5 percent of total use which, if realized, would be the smallest stocks-to-use ratio since 1994/95.

 

The world and U.S. estimates also include revisions for 2009/10 from last month.  World beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, mainly in Turkey.  World consumption is raised about 500,000 bales, due to adjustments for Pakistan and Turkey, where analysis suggests that ending stocks will be tighter than previously estimated.  Imports are raised for China and Turkey, while exports are raised for the United States and India, reflecting activity to date.  The forecast for the U.S. average price received by producers of 61.5 to 63.5 cents per pound is lowered one cent on the upper end of the range.

 

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 6/7/10

Jun 07, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 6/5/10 7:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 6/7/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?  

July Soybeans

After the close recap on 6/7/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 9.39, the EXACT actual high, and my support was 9.20, .08 1/4 from the actual low.

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9.76 XX                   Buy Stops Above here

9.58 1/4                             

-------------9.39        Pivot

9.20 XX                   Key Support at bracket line  

 

     

Trend                   

5 day chart...      Sideways from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.80 is the 200 DMA

ATR 16 1/2        Oversold 24%


Key support is at the bracket line at 9.20. If that goes there is no support until the psychological $9 level. Next bracket line is $8.91. Last week's high is resistance.

In my daily numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .00 3/4 from the actual high; support was .07 1/2 from the actual low.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.  

July Soybeans for 6/7/10: 

Grains: Spot on corn numbers and soybean resistance, soybean support helpful. Poor export sales, excellent central US growing conditions, dollar making new highs for the run, uncertainty in global equities markets, weak crude oil prices, and selling to take some risk off the table before the weekend, sent buyers to the sidelines.

I could not have been more right in my analysis of the grain market throughout this year. I have insisted that grains would erode this year until it is evident that we would get through pollination without incident, and then the next downturn will occur. I have clearly stated that the only fundamental that I could see that would cause grains to go up from even these current levels is a shortfall in production. I told you I trade the market from the charts and not the fundamentals, and the charts have not been bullish for quite some time.

I told you the fundamentals give me a bias for direction only and not for the discovery of price. The charts discover where support, resistance, and the trend are. I do not know anyone who (as I have pointed out many times) speaks of the weakness in the fact that the farmers and funds have the majority ownership of grains, and the fact that they are not end users means that at some point of time they must sell. Unlike a seller who does not own the crop would be forced at some point in time to buy back to cover their position and get "flat" meaning have no position at all. This is why I keep saying the "longs" are in weak hands. Yes the funds are strong hands, unless their positions are underwater and the need to liquidate occurs. At that time the enormous position becomes a problem because unless a "new buyer" assumes their position, and the only two left to buy from them is the "short seller" and the end user (end users are the strong hands because they will actually consume the product) and they will not do that until a chart support appears that is at a bargain price.   

This week the market is bracing for what could be a meltdown as was seen setting up last week. I expect grains could go either way to start the week, and this is only because corn is extremely oversold and the crop report on Thursday could prompt profit taking and short covering before it.

25% of the producers on my book were looking to take some of their hedge off last week, but only 1/2 of them actually did so. The ones that did I told to have a plan if they went higher to look to sell again, and if they went down instead they should put them back on. I have made it clear since the end of last year to be hedged 100% of your crop, but when a producer wants to buy I can only say to have a risk reward (meaning look to make this if right and only lose that if wrong) and cannot really stop them from doing so. If they are right and the market goes up they would feel I got in the way of them making more money. They read my daily numbers and commentary so they know what I want to do. So when they call to buy back something, they already know what I am thinking and have taken it under consideration in their own decision. I have always told them that when they hedge they should leave whatever upside they want and that is their "long position" and will make money that way if indeed the prices rally. What I have also said and all my producers have learned, that in time their options can (and have) presented opportunities to add further gains without going up (but that really helps) by way of "morphing" into another strategy.

What my producers think gives me a rough idea of what all the producers think, and that the last 3 years has encouraged them to seek higher prices. If you look back in this decade alone barring the last 3 years, this IS higher prices. The problem I have seen is reflective on some of the recent inquiries to my service, they are already underwater and do not want to hedge to lock in a loss. Their problem stems from their input costs such as paying too high a price for renting land, equipment costs, seed, and fertilizer and so on. The market does not care what a producer pays to grow the crop; it only cares about what the actual product is selling for. The last price is never the wrong price, it is reality, and anyone who does not believe in reality is considered by the medical profession to be "crazy". The reality is if prices keep going down and they do not sell even for a loss, the bank will sell not only their grain for them, but everything else they own because they will become bankrupt. Just ask any farmer who lost their farm because they did not "think" the market would go down as much as it did.

It is never too late to hedge and can leave enough upside open so if the market does rally they can be profitable once again, but if it does not, they might be able to not lose the farm and be here next year. They also could lift their hedge at any time, and if they do not lose on the way down they could pick a better price to be long than here.

Grain prices cannot be predicted unless you know what the weather will be through harvest. That is why I have constantly told you to trade the "what is" not the "what if", but can easily allow the "what if" in your hedge or speculative position. It is much cheaper to be long grains with a known risk option strategy than ownership or a futures position. November soybeans settled at $9 on Friday and it would cost you $.28 1/4 cents to be long from now until 10/22/10 and have the right to profit until $10, no margin or worry of losing more than what you paid. But if the market goes down sharply you would still have your upside instead of being forced out. If fully hedged you could buy this option strategy and add it to the cost of the hedge. If you did this when soybeans were above $10 you would already see what I am talking about, and instead of losing $1, you would only be out about $.16 now and would still have a "pipedream" if a rally would occur. With my option strategy it could cost only $.21 for the right to be long from $9 until $10, and at the same time be fully protected being hedged from $9 down to $8.20 and at the same time as having the right to be long from $9 to $10. These prices are based on the settlement of 6/4/10. Hedgers or speculators can use this strategy. My phone is always open to my speculators and producers and I will explain to you how my strategy is done. KNOWLEDGE is power especially using options. With knowledge I can be wrong the market and still make money.

July Soybeans for 6/4/10: 

Grains: Spot on grain numbers off no more than $.02. I expected the corn bulls to make a stand and continue to do the same today. A failure to close higher today would cast a negative tone to the chart. The bracket line support at $3.55 is now resistance, and until the bulls can close above there, they are on the wrong side of the chart.

Soybeans are now at resistance levels and entering extremely overbought conditions. Selling July soybeans and using a buy stop at $9.78 is my idea; day trading selling against the pivot I would use no more than a .05 risk using a buy stop to protect. The SN/SX basis is the function of the spread to pry soybeans from farmers who still own them. The ones that do want more than the market offers seeing as how soybeans are down over $1 since the start of the year. It took about 28 years before the Gold market posted a new all time high from the one that was made in January 1980 (I remember it well having traded it on the floor as a member for my own account), so I hope the farmers have the patience to wait for $10+ soybeans. They wait for a weather disaster here or in another major growing region and they will certainly see that occur (at some time in the future years). I would hedge and allow for some upside at best for now. Good soy oil use for bio diesel fuel should not be of concern seeing as how supplies are adequate. With the weather being the way it is right now, oil yields should be huge. Farmers have no reason to not take advantage of the inverted price.  

July Soybeans for 6/3/10:

  Grains: Spot on corn numbers and soybean support, bean resistance was not helpful in Wednesday's narrow range. Next Thursday we will get the next USDA report which will be interesting and could move the market. Soybeans are benefitting from the tightest of the row crop current supplies, and there is plenty of 2009 corn yet to be sold if the market can ever rally.

No matter the report or current fundamentals, I trade the chart not the fundamentals. The biggest "what if" will always be the weather at this time of the year through harvest, but all I can see for June is good growing conditions that are widespread. So I am not concerned with a rally for now and as before I feel any rally to a resistance level is a selling opportunity. I always use a stop or have a known risk strategy when trading. We are nearing what I believe will be support and hold the market from further losses until pollination shows its hand. $3.27 1/2 looks to be support for July corn, and $9 to $9.20 for July soybeans.

We are at maximum oversold conditions in corn and a corrective bounce higher should be expected. I do not see the beginning of the month fund buying yet, but today would be a good day for them to show up and defend their positions. Failure to do so might be the signal that the funds are rethinking their position and exposure through asset allocation. With soybeans in a sideways long term trading range and corn in a downtrend in all time frame charts, corn does not look attractive to me on the chart, or the possible bearish crop production in 2010. The PRC is a really good source of sales, but they are not bigger than the possible surplus we can produce this year. They are not fools either, I think if they feel the crop is coming in good there and here, they will back off of purchases until the market is giving the crop away.  

Producers who have un-hedged crop will continue to hear from me to hedge their crop fully, buy the protection you need and give yourself the upside you want. This way you can make more money if they rally, yet know you have some protection from further losses if the market goes down. The biggest mistake a trader or producer, or end user for that matter can make is to not protect from losses that become "unthinkable" and wind up in financial hardship. Do not sit and think that it cannot get worse. Buying the upside is really cheap right now, so you can be hedged and have the upside you want.

Results for 6/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/2 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .04 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 3.80 from the actual high; my support was 3.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .42 from the actual high; my support was .63 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 7 from the actual high; my support was 4 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .004 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .57 from the actual high; my support was .12 from the actual low. 

  

July Soybeans for 6/2/10:

  Grains: Spot on numbers! Bulls are looking around for some help, but none is to be found, no matter its own fundamentals or from outside markets. Crop ratings tonight will not help nor will the weather for now.

Trying to put myself in a "fund mentality" when it comes to grains, since 2010 began I am looking at a 10% drawdown in price and I would not be willing to add to my position unless the weather changes or in time the market fully discounts this year's crop. Today or any day can have up days, but I think we will get the sell stops in July corn below $3.51 1/2, and July soybeans sell stops below $9.20. What we do then is trade the weather for another 2 weeks and if not a factor we will see prices erode.

I have kept my long term bearish outlook all year and will continue to do so as I have said many times, until there is a "what if" that comes on my radar screen. I want to continue to sell rallies at resistance.

Results for 6/1/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .05 (only .01 3/4 in open outcry) from the actual high; my support was the exact actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .39 from the actual high; my support was .97 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high; my support was 3.50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.40 from the actual high; my support was 0.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .27 from the actual high; my support was .28 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 12 from the actual high; my support was 8 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .005 from the actual high; my support was .033 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .32 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans for 5/31/10&6/1/10 

Grains for 5/31/10 & 6/1/10: Spot on soybean numbers and corn resistance, corn support was helpful. I said a pullback would be in order on Friday, but I did not expect it to be as deep as it was. No matter how bearish I am, I am once again faced with bracket line support which means I want to take profits there and look to sell again on a corrective bounce even if only .10 in corn and .20 in beans. It is possible I will be selling again below where I cover but the amount of times it bounces as seen the last few months more than make up for the time it does not. This is another way I become the casino and have the odds in my favor, rather than the player who does not but thinks they are lucky and can beat the odds.

I will be watching the weather on Monday night, and will continue my bearish stance if nothing changes. I have done well to state my case, and new subscribers need only to read my trailing comments to know why. If you are long or are a producer who is long by the way of owning "un-hedged" grain, I would again caution you to be expecting and waiting for a summer rally. Owning grain via a good option strategy can have you own grain for "good odds" and a known risk if wrong. You can add that upside cost to your bottom line and be hedged if wrong and the market goes down. But to not have some kind of hedge puts speculators and producers in a situation of risking how much if you are wrong, and where will you see and take profits if right? My numbers do that for me, and I can be short many times (and even long sometimes) in different time frames. Being long and doing nothing seems more like investing than trading, and I am not an investor. Lastly, we are down grains on the year, as a matter of fact they are taking a bloody beating, but if I am right and the weather cooperates, they have an equal amount more to lose before the bleeding stops.  

Note: In the grain markets on Friday the numbers offered good trades that risked minimum amounts to obtain the profits, another example of why I consider myself a casino. Look at the 5 minute bar chart to review, but when you have numbers that result in spot on actual results, the question becomes how do you trade them to profit? I approach every market the same, and you should journal your approach to see what you are doing right and wrong, and if you are executing your plan. Journal your intuitiveness to see if it is helpful or not.

Results for 5/28/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/2 from actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was 1.04 from the actual high; my support was 0.39 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.75 (only 1.50 in open outcry) from the actual high; my support was the          EXACT actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 5.10 from the actual high; my support was 2.90 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .54 (only .06 in open outcry) from the actual high; my support was .63 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 14 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .037 from the actual high; my support was .024 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .05 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .037 from the actual high; my support was .024 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .05 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low. 

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

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Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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