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July 2010 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/14/10

Jul 14, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 7/13/10 2:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/14/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

November Soybeans

After the close recap on 7/14/10: My resistance was 9.69 1/4, .02 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 9.50 1/4, .02 1/2 from the actual low

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69 1/4                               Resistance

9.60 3/4                        

-------------9.50 1/4         Pivot & Bracket Line

9.39 3/4                    

                   

        Use the same numbers as used on 7/13/10

Trend                      

5 day chart...      Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   .... Sideways                   

Weekly chart ...Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways         $9.52 is the 200 DMA

ATR 18 1/2        Overbought 88%  



I said "Sideways chart this year trading all but a few weeks between $9 and $9.50".    

I said "Market closed on the downtrend line which becomes pivotal because of that. We are at a resistance level with the next being the high of April at $9.87".

Higher highs and higher lows is chart friendly.          

November Soybeans for 7/14/10:

 In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .03 3/4 from the actual low. 

 Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.

 Grains: Spot on numbers. The Russian President announced the severity of the Russian drought and its potentially catastrophic impact on Soviet grain production and farm income. That was all that was needed to send sellers to the sidelines and end users probably covering some needs. This is my guess, because while it was happening (wheat being so strong) I did not know the statements were made. I was thinking the traders were spreading the markets with corn suffering most of the selling, with soybeans and wheat seeing the buying side.

Soybean chart is grinding higher, and closing just above the bracket and downtrend line as well as the 200 day ma is encouraging. For now, I would only day trade this market using the numbers and not risk more than $.06 on any trade idea.  Corn did indeed correct down to the downtrend line which the bears failed to recapture. This line acted as good support and will continue to do so. I consider this line as a perfect place to buy if I was waiting for a pull back to do so. I still do not want to take the buy signals at this level, and at this time would not consider buying until $3.70. I would rather sell at the resistance numbers (including pivot) risking $.05 using a buy stop to protect. My bias is bearish at these levels, but I feel it is a flip of the coin at best. I would rather day trade the grains then take a position overnight, but I could see bears risking a few cents overnight to try to hold their shorts looking for $.15 more if right.

November Soybeans for 7/13/10:

Grains: Spot on corn numbers and spot on soybean resistance, but soybean support were accurate. Soybeans posted a higher high and higher low which is friendly, but closing lower was not. They did not manage to stay above the bracket line, let alone above the downtrend line. The fact they could not stay above the 200 day moving average is also negative. This chart looks like it is turning over, but it only takes a close above the resistances I just outlined to reverse that condition and regain the bull mode. It is trading just above the pivot as I write which makes me wait until it gets closer to resistance to take a sell, or be aggressive and sell if under the pivot, and not risk more than $.06 on either trade idea. If the market breaks down I would look to buy at a better chart location before trying to go long. Monday's 2pm crop progress report showed a 1% reduction from the good to excellent rating and was expected.

Corn failed to poke its head above Friday's high so the market technically was a sell and not risking much with a tight buy stop just above Friday's high. Monday's report showing corn progress actually improved 2% was bearish and I do not think was expected. That is probably why corn is down $.03 as I write. Looking at the chart it looks like it is turning over. I continue to want to take the sell signals and only use the support numbers as a place to take profits but not take the buy signal. I have no problem getting long somewhere below $3.70 but not near $4. The chart had a great rally and is falling just short of the average "$.60 summer rally" as well as falling short of the 200 day moving average, and trying to test February's high just $.15 above there. I would rather risk $.04 on a sell signal and not even try to get long from here.  

What am I looking at for a fundamental bias today? Bulls will be searching for a rouge weatherman but in the meantime they did see beneficial rains over the weekend. If we were not looking at ideal weather the next 2 weeks I would say we could rally from here, I just do not see it. Too much rain even though it could be disaster on your farm, means huge crops in other areas. This is the time when places like IA, NE, & the Dakotas, are still pollinating, but the crop as a whole is at 38% well ahead of the 5 year average of 26% and last year at only 15%. I am looking for rainfall (or lack of it) in the next 2 weeks because with the hot time of the year and downpours (or sprinkler like) of an inch or 2 will equate to an increase in crop yield. I am not saying that we have seen the highs this year, but I am saying that a pullback to test a support is in order, and the bulls need help from a weather forecast at this time to carry the market higher from here.        

Results for 7/12/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was 04 3/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .18 from the actual high; my support was .12 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was 2.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.60 from the actual high; my support was 5.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 15 from the actual high; my support was 10 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .024 from the actual high; my support was .013 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .05 from the actual low. 

November Soybeans for 7/12/10:

Grains: Spot on grain resistance and accurate support numbers. Report shows 9/11 corn stocks are forecasted as the lowest since 9/07, and 6/11 wheat stocks will be at their highest since 1987. Huge decline in 10/11 soy oil stocks due to USDA increasing 600 million pounds in domestic use versus June. Corn yields need to be average to maintain adequate supply, while soybeans can lose 1.4 bushels per acre (BPA) and still have stocks of 250 million bushels.

The biggest factor as I have been saying is the weather which equates to yield. July to Final corn yields has swung 14 BPA in either direction. Last year the USDA underestimated final corn yield by 11 BPA on their July forecast while in 1993 they overestimated the final by 17 BPA. Until we are sure yield this year will be 165 or better, the market should see buyers at support levels. Soybeans usually can see 2 to 3 BPA swings from July to Final.

I want you to keep in mind that these are estimates and they are not meant to be relied on more than that. Will July weather be better than June was? Weather right now is ideal, so if the market can rally from here it has other things on its mind than near term weather. We are entering the hottest time of the year right now, so it will be interesting to see what happens.   

(No matter the market you trade this applies) With all that said and done, where do we go from here? The answer only Mother Nature can know, and as always I look to the charts and numbers, looking for locations to take small risk for nice rewards no matter day trades or longer term position trades. The corn market has been extremely overbought for days which mean the buying has been intense, and soybeans joined that condition on Friday. I cannot buy at resistance levels in that condition, I would rather buy a pullback. Which leaves me the sell side at resistance levels not risking more than $.04 in corn or $.06 in soybeans on any given trade idea. Grain markets tend to trade well technically in the summer because the fundamentals are like a moving target and cannot be pinned down at any time now.  

The only thing I can rely on a day to day basis is what has been support and resistance in the past and what is more likely to continue to do so. What helps in an overall trade location are bracket lines and trend lines. I do not care why these factors work so well in price discovery as long as it continues to do so. The same charts have been around long before I was born, and will be here long after I am gone. Not only should price levels bring out the end users and producers, at those levels buyers and sellers should also be seen because it is recorded on the daily chart as locations to do so. When chartists look at these levels we expect them to continue, and not only do the end users want to buy at a level, the chart tells the speculator to do the same thing and adds to the support. Not only where the farmers would like to sell is at a price based upon the past, so do chartists. The more people who look at price history and use them in the present, the stronger the support or resistance becomes. It like feeds on itself. Basically, even if you are a pure fundamentalist, you still would want to confer with a chart before buying or selling. The alternative to not looking at a chart for some kind of price discovery, would be no different than to say you will swing at the next pitch even though it could be impossible to hit. I cannot believe that even asset allocation funds with a buy only program, would not use a chart technician in the aid of the best price possible that day or in the future.   

November Soybeans for 7/9/10:

 In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 3/4 from the actual low.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player.  

Grains: Spot on grain numbers! I will be sending out the report by 9am. Unusual PRC old crop soybean purchases at this time of the year gives you a sense that they are stockpiling or concerned about US crop prospects this year. These markets are rallying in spite of the ideal weather right now, and trying to figure out the clear fundamental picture is a task beyond hitting the bull's eye, I defy anyone to just "hit the board". Yes, we go with the numbers that are out there for all to see, but the reality of estimating acreage planted and actual yield is difficult this year, and is an educated guess at best including the guesstimates from the USDA.

The momentum in the market this week could push the markets to test the next level of resistance if the report is helpful in that pursuit, but could also lend support if the report is bearish, and could see good buying at support levels. I have laid out normal summer rally parameters but I keep in mind that the summer has just begun.   

Back to the charts. You can see that December corn is in eyeshot from the high of May that fell short by .01 1/2 cents on Thursday. After that we have some resistance at $subscribe now$. The close on the Final Jan.12th report was limit down at $4.17 1/2, and so if I can see a rally near there, I would not hesitate to take a sell and risk $.06 to make $.20 (or more) on a corrective break. This market as outlined before has no fundamental teeth for me and so this could be a dog food chart and I would approach and trade it the same way as if any other commodity with uncertain fundamentals. I want to pick my spots and swing at the good pitches (trades) that provide a minimum risk if the number does not hold, and reward nicely when it does.

Soybeans ran out of steam at the downtrend line, which I would have expected to hold seeing as the amount they rallied warranted profit taking at that level a day before the report. The bulls will need the energy to hurdle that line and make a run for the high of April at $9.87.  On January 12th the market finished .25 1/4 lower at $9.65. I do not know what the fundamentals will be going forward, but what I do know is these are the resistances for soybeans and corn. We know the support levels but we are not near them now, and if the report is bearish we will see what is and holds the market from further losses.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

August Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/12/10

Jul 12, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 7/10/10 11:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/12/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

August Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 7/12/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 90.47, just .02 from the actual high, and my support and was 89.80 FG, just 0.05 from the actual low

Results for 7/12/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was 04 3/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .18 from the actual high; my support was .12 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 2.25 from the actual high; my support was 2.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.60 from the actual high; my support was 5.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 15 from the actual high; my support was 10 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .024 from the actual high; my support was .013 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .05 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base. Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry? 

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

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91.52 FG                         

91.17                         

--------------90.47       Pivot 

89.80 FG                           

89.47 FG                           

 

Trend                       88.55  is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways                 

Weekly chart …….Up                     ATR 1.12

Monthly chart....    Sideways          Overbought 69%



August Cattle (elec.) for 7/12/10:

I said "Gap from Tuesday at 88.75 should hold or the bulls will be on shaky ground".  

 I said "Notice how the top channel line acted as perfect resistance on Thursday maintaining the channel".

In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was .35 from the actual high, my support was .30 from the actual low.    

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

Cattle: Accurate numbers. In the middle of the channel again and that gives me no bias. Gaps just below and the top channel line rejecting further advance just above, leads me to day trade using the numbers only and not risk more than .40 on any trade idea.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

August Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/9/10

Jul 11, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 7/8/10 5:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/9/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

August Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 7/9/10: My resistance was 91.52 FG, .35 from the actual high, and my support was 89.80 FG, .30 from the actual low

Subscribe now!  Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry? 

Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

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92.20 XX                         

91.52 FG                         

--------------90.65       Pivot 

89.80 FG                           

89.47 FG                           

 

Trend                       88.55  is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways                 

Weekly chart …….Up                     ATR 1.05

Monthly chart....    Sideways       Ex. Overbought 90%


I continue to say "Bracket line is support and as long as the market holds there the longer term bullish trend remains intact". "Bulls left a "spike low" from (last) Tuesday which is a bullish chart signal".

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/9/10:

I said "Bull channel is forming. Gap from Tuesday at 88.75 should hold or the bulls will be on shaky ground".  

 Notice how the top channel line acted as perfect resistance on Thursday maintaining the channel.

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .15 the actual high, my support was .40 from the actual low.

 Cattle: Spot on resistance and helpful support. Notice how the top channel line was perfect resistance on Thursday. Bulls are trying to break out to the upside from this channel. I continue to want to sell against that line and risk no more than .40 on the trade idea.   

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/8/10:

Cattle: Spot on resistance and accurate support. I have the same thoughts as yesterday.

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/7/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! The uptrend channel is intact because the bulls failed to go supersonic and breakout of the channel to the upside. That is another example of why I use channel lines for support and resistance. Since we are in the middle of those channel lines today, I would only day trade this market today using the numbers without bias and not risk more than .40 on a stop to protect.

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/5/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! This chart could go either way today, so I would only day trade the numbers without bias today.

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

Results for 7/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high (only .00 1/2 away in open outcry); my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .43 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.50 from the actual high; my support was 4.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .67 from the actual high; my support was .80 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .063 from the actual high; my support was .055 from the actual low. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

WASDE - 484 July 9, 2010

Jul 09, 2010


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WASDE - 484            July 9, 2010

Opening calls 3 to 5 lower corn, Wheat 10 to 15 lower, and Soybeans maybe 5 to 8 cents lower.

NOTE:  This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).  For rice, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table.  The first survey-based 2010 production forecasts for those crops will be reported by NASS on August 12 and will be included in that day’s issue of this report.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are raised this month on higher area, yields, and carryin.  Beginning stocks are raised 43 million bushels based on the June 1 stocks estimate.  Total wheat production is forecast 149 million bushels higher with higher forecast area and a forecast record yield of 45.9 bushels per acre.  Winter wheat production is up 23 million bushels as higher Hard Red Winter wheat yields more than offset lower yields for Soft Red Winter wheat.  Durum and other spring wheat production are forecast higher as abundant moisture and lack of heat stress in the Northern Plains support above trend yields.  Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels lower as higher prices limit the competitiveness of wheat in livestock and poultry rations.  Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher with lower expected production in several major exporting countries and strong early season export sales.  Despite increased foreign demand for U.S. wheat, ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 102 million bushels higher and remain at an expected 23-year high.  The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel, up 20 cents on each end of the range as tighter world supplies and higher corn prices support wheat values.

This month’s 2009/10 changes reflect the latest export and seed use data and reported June 1 stocks.  Projected exports are lowered 20 million bushels and estimated seed use is lowered 3 million bushels.  Based on these changes, June 1 stocks indicate feed and residual use 21 million bushels lower.  The 2009/10 wheat farm price is estimated at $4.87 per bushel, up 2 cents from last month’s projection.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are reduced with world production projected 7.5 million tons lower as smaller crops in FSU-12, Canada, EU-27, India, and Turkey more than offset higher production in the United States and China.  Production for Canada is lowered 4 million tons as persistent June rains limited seeding in the Western Prairies.  Production is lowered 4.5 million tons and 3.0 million tons, respectively, for Russia and Kazakhstan as continued drought and high temperatures reduce yield prospects for spring wheat.  EU-27 production is lowered 1.1 million tons reflecting early indications of lower-than-expected yields in northern Europe.  India production is lowered 1.0 million tons on indications that heat during late grain fill reduced yields.  Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Turkey as early harvest results indicate disease has reduced expected yields.  Production is raised 2.5 million tons for China where favorable June weather boosted harvested area and yields.

 World wheat imports and exports are nearly unchanged for 2010/11, but substantial shifts are projected among the major exporting countries.  Exports are reduced for Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey with lower production.  Exports are raised for the United States, Australia, EU-27, and Ukraine.  Global wheat consumption declines slightly with lower expected feeding in Canada, EU-27, Ukraine, and the United States mostly offset by increases for Russia and China.  Global ending stocks are projected 6.9 million tons lower.

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are lowered with reduced carryin and lower projected production.  Beginning stocks for corn are projected 125 million bushels lower reflecting higher use in 2009/10.  With forecast harvested area down, corn production is lowered 125 million bushels, leaving supplies down 250 million bushels and 60 million below the 2009/10 record.  Exports for 2010/11 are projected 50 million bushels lower as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected down 200 million bushels at 1,373 million, 105 million below the 2009/10 projection.  The season-average farm price for corn is projected 15 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel.

Other 2010/11 feed grains changes mostly reflect lower forecast area, which is partly offset by higher expected yields.  Barley and oats yields, as reported in the July 9 Crop Production, are forecast above trend.  Sorghum yields are raised to reflect adequate to abundant soil moisture in the southern and central Plains.  Production, however, declines slightly for all three crops.  Barley and oats imports are lowered with reduced supplies expected in Canada.  Projected ending stocks are lowered for all three crops and farm prices are projected higher.

U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected 125 million bushels higher as increased feed and residual use more than offsets a reduction for ethanol.  Feed and residual use is projected 175 million bushels higher as June 1 stocks indicated higher-than-expected disappearance during the March-May quarter.  Corn use for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  Although daily ethanol disappearance set another record in April, daily production slipped below March’s record pace.  EIA’s new weekly ethanol production data series (first reported for the week ending June 4) suggests June production, while up from April, will not reach the March pace.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 14.9 million tons lower with nearly half of the decline driven by reductions in carryin and production in the United States.  Global coarse grain production is lowered 10.8 million tons with barley, corn, and oats production lowered 6.9 million tons, 3.4 million tons, and 0.9 million tons, respectively.  Partly offsetting, is a 0.4-million-ton increase in EU-27 mixed grain production.  Outside the United States, the biggest reductions are for Russia, Canada, EU-27, and Kazakhstan.  Russia barley production is lowered 2.5 million tons as continued drought and high temperatures reduce yield prospects.  Russia corn and rye production are lowered 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively.  Canada barley and oats production are lowered 1.1 million tons and 0.9 million tons, respectively, as persistent June rainfall limited plantings.  Barley production is lowered 2.4 million tons for EU-27 mostly reflecting lower reported area.  Kazakhstan barley production is lowered 0.8 million tons as extended drought and high temperatures sharply reduce expected yields.

Global coarse grain imports and exports are nearly unchanged for 2010/11.  Corn imports are lowered for Mexico with exports increased for Ukraine, partly offsetting the U.S. export reduction.  World barley imports and exports are raised slightly with shifts expected among exporting countries.  Barley exports are reduced for Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan, but raised for EU-27 and Australia. Global coarse grain consumption is lowered for 2010/11 mostly reflecting reduced barley and corn use in Russia and EU-27.  Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected sharply lower with world corn ending stocks down 6.2 million tons and barley ending stocks down 5.7 million tons.  At the projected 180.2 million tons, coarse grain stocks would be the lowest since 2007/08.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 100.8 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from last month, with increased soybean production accounting for most of the change.  Soybean production is projected at 3.345 billion bushels, up 35 million due to increased harvested area.  Harvested area is estimated at a record 78 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, 0.9 million above the June projection.  The soybean yield is projected at 42.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.  Increased exports and crush offset increased supplies, leaving projected 2010/11 ending stocks at 360 million bushels, unchanged from last month.  Higher soybean exports reflect increased import projections for China for 2010/11.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.10 to $9.60 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $240 to $280 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 440.7 million tons.  Foreign oilseed production is projected down 1.2 million tons to 340 million mostly due to lower rapeseed production.  Global soybean production is projected at a record 251.3 million tons, up 1.4 million due mostly to higher production in the United States.  Soybean production is also raised for Canada based on higher planted area reported by Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is sharply reduced for Canada due to lower harvested area.  Despite a record planted area estimate reported by Statistics Canada based on producer surveys conducted in late May and early June, significant crop area in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba did not get planted due to excessive rainfall through late June.  As a result, the Canada rapeseed crop is projected at 10.2 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month.  Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for China and EU-27 and increased cottonseed production for the United States, Brazil, and Uzbekistan.

U.S. soybean exports for 2009/10 are projected at a record 1.46 billion bushels, up 5 million from last month in part reflecting additional sales to China.  Crush is increased 5 million bushels to 1.745 billion due to stronger than expected domestic disappearance for soybean meal.  Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is increased 188,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher beginning stocks and production.  Beet sugar production is increased 80,000 tons while cane sugar production is decreased 10,000 tons, reflecting area for harvest in the June 30 Acreage report.  Sugar use is unchanged.

For 2009/10, U.S. production is decreased 42,000 tons, mainly due to smaller-than-expected beet sugar production in May.  Sugar imports under the tariff rate quota are increased 270,000 tons based on the July 6 announcement, while imports from Mexico are decreased 110,000 tons.  With no change in use, ending stocks are increased 118,000 tons.  For Mexico, 2009/10 production is increased to reflect output expected in the final few weeks of the harvest, imports and exports are decreased, and domestic use and ending stocks are unchanged.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are adjusted slightly.  Cow slaughter remains relatively high boosting beef production in 2010.  Higher forecast mid-year cattle placements are also expected to boost steer and heifer slaughter later in the year and into early 2011.  Pork production is forecast higher for 2010 based on increased slaughter and heavier dressed weights; mainly during the second quarter.  The June 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in the second half of 2010.  Although largely offset by gains in pigs per litter, year-over growth in sows farrowing in 2011 is slower than previously forecasted for 2010 and 2011.  Hatchery data point toward continued growth in bird numbers and weights have been moving up.  Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

A slight increase is made to beef exports for 2010.  Broiler exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to stronger shipments to a number of small markets and resumption in exports to Russia.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand remains relatively weak in the face of higher production.  The 2010 broiler price is adjusted to reflect second quarter prices.  Prices for 2011 are unchanged.  The turkey price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised from last month in the face of continued tight supplies.  The egg price forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.

COTTON:  The U.S. 2010/11 cotton projections include higher production, domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month.  Production of 18.3 million bales is raised nearly 10 percent from the June estimate due to higher planted area, as reported in the June 30 Acreage report, combined with lower expected abandonment and a higher average yield per harvested acre.  The projected abandonment rate and yield have been adjusted to reflect early July crop conditions in the Southwest, which are the most favorable since 1994/95.  Domestic mill use is raised marginally on stronger recent activity.  Exports are raised sharply due to the projected larger available supply and strong foreign demand.  While ending stocks of 3.5 million bales are 700,000 bales above last month, the stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent remains relatively tight.  The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is unchanged at 60 to 74 cents per pound.

This month’s world 2010/11 projections show higher production which is mostly offset by lower beginning stocks.  Beginning stocks are reduced mainly in Pakistan, due to adjustments in production beginning in 2007/08 reflecting reduced estimates of average bale weights.  Production for 2010/11 is raised in the United States, Brazil, and Uzbekistan, but lowered in Pakistan.  World consumption is raised slightly based on increases for Turkey and the United States.  World trade is supported by projected higher import demand by Pakistan, Turkey, and China.  World stocks are marginally above the June projection and the world stocks-to-use ratio is the smallest since 1994/95.

RICE:  U.S. total rice supplies for 2010/11 are projected at a record 309.4 million cwt, up 5.5 percent from last month owing to increases in beginning stocks and production.  U.S. rice production is projected at a record 250.0 million cwt, 2.5 percent above last month, and 14 percent above 2009/10.  Estimated harvested area at 3.49 million acres as reported in the June 30 NASS Acreage report is 3 percent above last month, 13 percent above 2009/10, and the largest since 1999/2000.  Long-grain harvested area is raised 7.5 percent to a record 2.75 million acres, while combined medium- and short-grain harvested area is lowered 10.5 percent to 0.74 million.  The average all rice yield for 2010/11 is projected at 7,157 pounds per acre, 45 pounds per acre below last month, but 72 pounds above 2009/10.  The all rice projected yield is derived from the trend yields by rice class for the period 1990-2009.  Long-grain rice production is projected at a record 190.0 million cwt, 7 percent above last month, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 60.0 million cwt, 10 percent below last month.  All rice beginning stocks for 2010/11 are raised 10 million cwt or 35 percent to 38.4 million, 26 percent above the previous year.   The increase in beginning stocks is due to a reduction in 2009/10 domestic and residual use based on June 1 stocks data contained in the NASS Rice Stocks report released on June 30.

Total rice use for 2010/11 is projected at a record 242.0 million cwt, down about 2 percent from last month owing entirely to a decrease in projected domestic and residual use.  Domestic and residual use for 2010/11 is projected at 129.0 million cwt, down 10 million, but up 2.0 million from the revised 2009/10 estimate.  The reduction in 2010/11 domestic and residual use is based on the change for the preceding year.  Exports for 2010/11 are projected at 113.0 million cwt, up 4 percent from a month ago, and an increase of 8 percent from 2009/10.  Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are raised 10 percent to 34 million cwt, while exports of long-grain rice are up 1 percent to 79 million.  Projected rough rice exports and combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) are each raised 2.0 million cwt to 47.0 million—a record—and to 66.0 million, respectively.  Larger supplies of long-grain rice and projected lower prices are expected to increase U.S. exports in 2010/11, particularly to markets in the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East.  Despite tighter supplies of U.S. medium-grain rice, higher exports to the Middle East and Turkey are expected due to tighter supplies in Egypt, a major competitor.

USDA estimated June 1 rice stocks at 63.9 million cwt (combined rough and milled stocks on a rough-equivalent basis) in the Rice Stocks report published on June 30, 13 percent above the previous year.  June 1 rough rice stocks are estimated at 57.4 million cwt, and milled stocks at 4.5 million.  The higher-than-expected stocks implied lower domestic and residual use during March to May.  Consequently, annual domestic and residual use in 2009/10 is lowered 7 percent to 127.0 million cwt.

The 2010/11 long-grain season-average farm price range is lowered 75 cents per cwt on each end of the range to $9.00 to $10.00 per cwt compared to a revised $12.90 per cwt for 2009/10. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is increased $2.50 per cwt on each end to $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt compared to a revised $17.80 per cwt in 2009/10.  The all rice season-average farm price is lowered 20 cents per cwt on each end to $10.75 to $11.75 per cwt compared to a revised $14.10 per cwt for 2009/10.  Record domestic supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, will pressure prices of that class.  Tighter supplies for combined medium- and short-grain rice will support prices for that class.  Additionally, a record global rice crop will pressure international prices, particularly for long-grain rice.  Conversely, tighter global exportable supplies of medium-grain rice will help support prices of that class.

Global 2010/11 rice supply and use are little changed from last month’s projections.  World production is raised fractionally as increases for the United States, Kazakhstan, and Russia more than offset decreases for Cambodia and Egypt.  Global consumption is lowered nearly 0.7 million tons primarily due to decreases for the United States, Egypt, Cambodia, and Iran.  Global trade for 2010/11 is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Ending stocks are raised 0.3 million tons to 96.6 million, as increases for the United States and Iran more than offset reductions for the Philippines and Egypt.

 

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

November Soybeans and Dec. Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/8/10

Jul 08, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 7/7/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/8/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

November Soybeans

After the close recap on 7/8/10: November Soybeans: My resistance was 9.59 3/4, .03 1/2 from the actual high, and my  support  was 9.24 3/4, just .02 1/2 from the actual low.

December corn: My resistance was 3.99, just .01 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 3.89, just .01 1/4 from the actual low. (December chart and numbers not shown in this article)

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9.59 3/4                        

9.47 1/4 XX                     near $9.51 is the 200 DMA

-------------9.36 FG          Pivot

9.24 3/4                    

9.13 1/2                    

  

Trend                     

5 day chart...      Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.51 is the 200 DMA

ATR 18              Extremely Overbought 92%  



Sideways chart this year trading all but a few weeks between $9 and $9.50.    

Bracket line at $9.50, 200 day at $9.51, and the downtrend line just above all add up to be strong resistance.

November Soybeans for 7/8/10:

 In my daily numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .15 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .03 1/4 from the actual low.

Grains: Accurate corn numbers, and spot on support but resistance was no help. Corn did not follow through on the signal from Tuesday. Soybeans went from near support to near resistance levels. Corn had a good performance closing above the downtrend line but fell short of Tuesday's high

Here is the July corn contract that best reflects the true buyers and sellers that are in the market now. Blue downtrend line clearly shows the support unlike the December contract. I get my numbers from this chart and add the carry (the difference between July and December contract) to get the December numbers.

I was impressed with corn and soybeans in spite of ideal weather for IL, IN, and IA the next 10 days. Since there are so many offsetting fundamental factors I expect 2 sided action before Friday's report, and for no other reason should see some profit taking on Thursday or Thursday night. Bulls are in control and they had the perfect storm of higher equities, higher crude oil, and an appetite for some risk on Wednesday. If the weather turns bad these market will surely rally.

November soybeans typical rally $1, but corn has only seen $.60 rallies in 3 of the last 8 years. December corn at $4.05 would accomplish that. It feels like the market wants to go higher, but make no mistake the primary driver of direction and strength is the weather, and then demand, while the funds play their role in risk taking and short term control. Another factor that might be in play is the end users. They might be afraid of getting caught with their pants down and are scrambling to take risk off the table (by hedging buying the market).

The bottom line is that I do not make money by predicting the fundamentals; I make money by taking trades at locations that risk little if the trade does not work, and has a nice reward when it does. On any given day I can day trade using the numbers, but position trades all come from the bigger chart picture. If we are in no man's land where we are in the middle of the daily charts support and resistance levels, I am less aggressive and less likely to hold overnight positions. This might be done in ways of just trading fewer contracts than when at key support and resistance levels. I want to day trade these markets today only taking sell signals at resistance levels, and I have no interest in taking a position going into the report Friday morning at 7:30 a.m.

November Soybeans for 7/7/10

Grains: Spot on grain numbers! As they say in baseball "keep your eye on the ball", and the ball in this game for me is the chart, and the numbers are the bat.

Crop reports (weekly) might be considered friendly, but they are in line with last year's record crop. What it does show is the wide range of crop condition over a wide area. This makes production forecasts to be unreliable for me to risk money on, and this allows me to be unbiased in my fundamental thoughts, and brings me right back to what I always rely on no matter the fundamentals, my charts.

With production up in the air, uncertain global equities markets, weak crude demand and price, the door will swing widely in either direction, and can rally in August or September even if they fail from here through the end of July. So the opportunity for me as a trader lies in bracket lines, trend lines, and gaps, and the locations on the chart that risks little if wrong and rewards nicely when the number holds, is the how and why I take trades.

I have no vested interest in any market, but like everyone I always will cheer for lower energy prices and a healthy stock market and economy, lower interest rates some people would like to see higher but our government could sure use lower rates, and I will always cheer when grain prices rally. With that being said, as a trader it really does not matter what the market does. It matters only if you are a producer or end user because price affects profits. The end user wants to see lower prices as much as the producer wants to see higher prices. They have the task of locking in a decent profit when possible, and with the right strategy allow the possibility for more profits as time goes on. Unlike a trader who has no position until entry, and has no position when exited, the producer and end user needs to be hedged before they can have no position. When that is accomplished they can then act like a trader when they in the case of a farmer buys back some upside and resume being long some of their crop at a level of their choosing, the "known risk" can be obtained using options, and risk only a % of their income, not "bet the farm" or too high a % of it.

Corn did well to get above the pivot to open above the pivot but tried for 2 hours to fill the gap but could not, and that is when they went below the pivot and stayed there. Last night corn bulls as well as corn shorts had the support number to help buy corn near the low which was seen for hours, and could have sold open outcry for a profit (shorts to re-enter). Trades like that are what I seek at this time. In a 5 day week if I can take a $.10 profit twice, and lose $.04 three times, I come out $.08 ahead being wrong more than being right. If I am right 3 times out of 5 though I am ahead $.22, and that is why my fund manager calls me the "blue collar trader", and I go in there, do my job, and I am the last he would call on a meltdown day, because he knew I was not going into the "OK Corral" and play "shootem up cowboy", but rather be at the shooting gallery where safely I shoot at the "ducks". When I miss no harm done and I knew the cost to fire my gun, but when I hit the target I win a prize. The bottom line is I will always be able to go to the shooting range and try to hit the little target that rewards the most, as well as the bigger targets that do not score as high but more likely to earn a prize.

I am stressing to you that this market could go up and down a few times from here before October. I think the trader that stands with his hands in his pockets and waits with a long or short position will see profits come and go, and for me I think it is easier to take $.60 in $.10 to $.20 chunks at a time, than $.60 at once. Along with that I will not constantly be exposed to risk, only at the time and for as long as I need be.

Weather is the number one factor for market direction, and perception is next. The chart tells me what price levels to get in or out no matter the reason the market trades there. I have outlined the charts resistances that we are at now, and the bulls that can make money from here will have earned every penny. I can only play the short side at these resistance levels in corn. Soybeans on the other hand are closer to their support levels and I cannot sell because of this. If the market goes lower from here the bears earned every penny of it. I look for choppy trade today and tomorrow going into Friday's USDA report. I want to only take the sell signals in corn, and would trade the soybean numbers without bias.

December corn 5 minute chart showing how once the pivot (3.86 3/4) was broken for 5 minutes you had 30 minutes to sell at 3.85 1/2 risking .02 or .03 to get 5 1/2 cent support profit before the close. Notice how I use the downtrend line to aid in trying to stay short and help in lowering my buy stop so I do not risk more than what is left to profit. This could be any chart, and the numbers although tight in corn, can be extreme in S&P, Euro, and crude oil and so on. A chart is a chart and I wanted to touch on this again.

July Soybeans for 7/5/10

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. The report has been digested and already reflected in the price. Corn is now trading where it has been for months, and soybeans are near their lows for 2010.

Nothing changed on Friday; it was a normal pre-holiday quiet day. My thoughts are the same and so I want to look at the weather forecast on Monday night which I believe will be the main driver of direction this week, so I will use the chart for location of support and resistance, and use the numbers for entry or exit on the days I want to do so.  

The charts and numbers for old crop soybeans and corn are valid in part 1, as well as the new crop numbers in this part 2.

Results for 7/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high (only .00 1/2 away in open outcry); my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .43 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.50 from the actual high; my support was 4.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .67 from the actual high; my support was .80 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .063 from the actual high; my support was .055 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans  for 7/2/10:

I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".       

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was the EXACT actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .02 3/4 from the actual low.  

Grains: I will be switching to new crop this weekend. Exact high and spot on support in corn, and accurate soybean numbers. I am not surprised to see corn follow through on Thursday; I am still shocked at the 300 million shortfall in stocks. USDA numbers from March to June and all of a sudden they cannot find the corn. What part of their previous reports was wrong does not matter to me, what matters is that I do not fight the charts, and try and look for trade opportunities no matter long or short, and have the risk reward in my favor before I take a trade idea.

Looking at the action I would not be surprised if we can fill the gap at $3.73 1/4, and if we can get above there we should see the $3.85 level near the bracket line resistance get tested. If corn can close higher today, those resistance levels will be in the bull's eye when we open on Monday night. Profit taking could be seen today, but even with the extremely overbought condition we have a 50/50 chance to see those resistances tested by next week. Lastly, if corn can get to $3.85 that would be a gain of $.60 from the June low, and that would equal last year's summer rally ($.60 is a normal summer rally).      

Soybeans closed on the long term uptrend line that is now pivotal. Downtrend line is clearly seen as well as the report day high that will be resistances. Corn's weak sister needs all the help it can get with the added acreage and adequate supplies going forward if normal trend yields occur. I would sell this market for a day trade at resistance levels and risk $.05.

I do not want to take home a position into the 4th of July weekend; it's too risky especially now that we have some room to the downside again. Day trading the numbers works for me and allows me to not have an opinion (when I do not have a bias) and not have the risk exposure overnight. My approach also allows me to be flexible and take overnight trades when at chart bracket lines, and longer term trades when the chart allows.      

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

August Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/6/10

Jul 06, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 7/3/10 3:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/6/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

August Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 7/6/10: My resistance was 91.00, .15 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 89.57, the EXACT actual low

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91.00                         

90.50                          

--------------89.57       Pivot 

88.75 FG                           

88.10                    

87.27 FG                          

Trend                       88.45  is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways                 

Weekly chart …….Up                     ATR 1.17

Monthly chart....    Sideways           Balanced 60%



I continue to say "Bracket line is support and as long as the market holds there the longer term bullish trend remains intact". "Bulls left a "spike low" from Tuesday which is a bullish chart signal".

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/6/10:

Bull channel is forming. Gap from Tuesday at 88.75 should hold or the bulls will be on shaky ground.  

 In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was .07 from the actual high, my support was .10 from the actual low.    

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.               

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/5/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! This chart could go either way today, so I would only day trade the numbers without bias today.

Results for 7/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high (only .00 1/2 away in open outcry); my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .43 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.50 from the actual high; my support was 4.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .67 from the actual high; my support was .80 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .063 from the actual high; my support was .055 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/2/10:

Cattle: Spot on resistance but not helpful support. I want to trade the numbers today without bias.

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/1/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls showed their horns and are gaining momentum. Gap below will be key support going forward so I want to buy the pivot today, and if below there when open outcry begins I want to buy support, but I would only risk .40 on the trade idea.

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/30/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. I want to sell the resistance and not risk more than .40 on the trade idea.

Results for 6/29/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .11 from the actual high; my support was .04 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.50 from the actual high; my support was 19.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 4.20 from the actual high; my support was 2.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .064 from the actual high; my support was .067 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .37 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low. 

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/29/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. 200 day moving average has been helpful support. I would trade this chart today without bias at this location, with gaps located just above and below the pivot.

Subscribers of 6 months or longer have seen this 3rd time at the down or uptrend line works a high % of time, and the risks are minimal when it does not hold, and rewards you nicely when right. No matter what market you trade, learn this tool that I have relied on for decades, and my instilling courage to believe in this in you that took me so long to truly believe in. I take these trades every time when possible, and in the long run in my years it has truly been a casino bet for me and not a player, and are the ones most worth taking. See for yourself and if you see this pattern works, start to incorporate it in how you use it to trade with. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

July Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/2/10

Jul 03, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 7/1/10 2:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/2/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

July Soybeans

After the close recap on 7/2/10: My resistance was 9.65 3/4, just .01 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 9.54 1/2, .04 1/2 (but just .00 1/2 in open outcry) from the actual low.

Results for 7/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high (only .00 1/2 away in open outcry); my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .43 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.50 from the actual high; my support was 4.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .67 from the actual high; my support was .80 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .063 from the actual high; my support was .055 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry? 

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers



9.76                              $9.79 is the 200 DMA

9.65 3/4                        near bracket line resistance    

-------------9.54 1/2       Pivot

9.43 1/4                    

9.30 1/2                    

  

Trend                   

5 day chart...      Down from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   …. Sideways                   

Weekly chart …Sideways           

Monthly chart   Sideways $9.79 is the 200 DMA

ATR 13 1/2        Oversold 34%


I continue to say "Bulls recaptured the long term uptrend line, and they have been retesting the downtrend line resistance to no avail. Last week's low is support, downtrend lines are resistance".

I also said "Long term uptrend line is in play this week and will act as support, if the last price is near there it will become pivotal, and if the price gets below it will become resistance going forward in time".

July Soybeans for 7/2/10:

In my daily numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .06 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot also acted as support and was .04 3/4 from the actual low.

Grains: I will be switching to new crop this weekend. Exact high and spot on support in corn, and accurate soybean numbers. I am not surprised to see corn follow through on Thursday; I am still shocked at the 300 million shortfall in stocks. USDA numbers from March to June and all of a sudden they cannot find the corn. What part of their previous reports was wrong does not matter to me, what matters is that I do not fight the charts, and try and look for trade opportunities no matter long or short, and have the risk reward in my favor before I take a trade idea.

Looking at the action I would not be surprised if we can fill the gap at $3.73 1/4, and if we can get above there we should see the $3.85 level near the bracket line resistance get tested. If corn can close higher today, those resistance levels will be in the bull's eye when we open on Monday night. Profit taking could be seen today, but even with the extremely overbought condition we have a 50/50 chance to see those resistances tested by next week. Lastly, if corn can get to $3.85 that would be a gain of $.60 from the June low, and that would equal last year's summer rally ($.60 is a normal summer rally).      

Soybeans closed on the long term uptrend line that is now pivotal. Downtrend line is clearly seen as well as the report day high that will be resistances. Corn's weak sister needs all the help it can get with the added acreage and adequate supplies going forward if normal trend yields occur. I would sell this market for a day trade at resistance levels and risk $.05.

I do not want to take home a position into the 4th of July weekend; it's too risky especially now that we have some room to the downside again. Day trading the numbers works for me and allows me to not have an opinion (when I do not have a bias) and not have the risk exposure overnight. My approach also allows me to be flexible and take overnight trades when at chart bracket lines, and longer term trades when the chart allows.      

July Soybeans for 7/1/10:

Grains: Spot on grain numbers except corn resistance was breached on the open and acted as support.

The report was a game changer for corn.  Today's 1.4 mil acre lower than expected corn area forecast vs. trade expectations is the 2nd largest downside surprise in 20 years exceeded only by the 1.6 mil lower than expected corn area reported in 1997. Corn acreage has only gained 4 times in the last 20 years from this June report until the Final report; on the other hand it rarely declines in acreage by more than .5 million acres as was seen last year. One of 1/3 of the last 17 years soybeans advanced as it did so in 2008 when it advanced 1.2 million acres. Last year it was unchanged. We will not get another clue as to what acreage was really planted until the next estimate in October.

Trade estimates for corn stocks was off 303 million bushels which was the biggest overestimation since 1996 when they overestimated by 270 million bushels, when December corn rallied for a day, corrected lower, then surged to $3.90 before the July crop report. NASS stock updates are more reliable later in the marketing year than production forecasts at the end of harvest.

Corn stocks are adequate but there is really not much room for a shortfall in production this year from the USDA 163.5 bushels per acre (BPA). If we got a 4.2 BPA decline, that would cause corn stocks to be below 1 billion bushels, instead of the 2+ we were looking at before the report. If US corn stocks would fall to 1.345 billion bushels, which would be the lowest since 06/07 when corn rallied to over $5.50 in the summer of '06.     

The way I look at this is the same way as always, no matter what the report said, it is being digested over the next 2 days, and by then it has already been fully priced into the market, and then we turn to the important July 4th weekend. I guarantee all traders will be watching the weather Monday night to see what the weather did over the weekend, and more importantly will be the forecast for the next 2 weeks and then beyond. This holiday is always an active period when we return, and the market is capable of being volatile or even chaotic. That is all the more reason to have a plan and a strategy that allows you to trade without emotion, and I try to take advantage of that by using my chart and daily numbers to risk a small amount at support or resistance levels to get a good reward and take profits. I am not trying to buy the low of the move and sell the exact high; I try to take pieces out of the market instead.   

I think we will see good support in corn at support levels, and if the PRC comes back into the corn market we could test $4 December corn. If we see that maybe November soybeans can get back to $9.45, and beyond that would have a shot at $9.80 even though I think that would take adverse weather to occur. You must remember there are fundamentals that could come into play such as the government realizing that corn stocks might not be what they thought they would be so maybe they will not go after 15% blend ethanol which would take away from corn demand and usage. We could get a meltdown in worldwide equities which would also be bearish, so realize that supply demand is not the only factors in price discovery.  

Bottom line for me: I want to trade the market using the numbers without bias today.

July Soybeans for 6/30/10:

Grains: Spot on to accurate grain numbers. It was no surprise to see the grains under pressure seeing how the equities, and crude oil (and most commodities) were selling off before the grain open, as well as the dollar flexing its muscle. Weather forecasts could not be better right now for most of the grain belt. It was a surprise to see the losses by the end of the day. It seems like there was more exiting of bulls from the grain story that were not content to see how wrong they might be after the report today. Look at commodities in general (CRB Index), the bulls are underwater in 2010.

Whatever the report says, I trade strictly by my charts and numbers, and what I "think" never handcuffs me to a bias that if wrong will lose more than a trade I have no bias for. I am saying that the chart is always the main reasons I take a trade, set a risk where I know I am wrong, and have a goal that if reached (support or resistance) I take a profit.

The fundamental trader is usually a longer term trader, so they must have a plan that manages risk and time. Does not matter if one day your trade thought is more than correct, if you go bankrupt first. Even worse than that are the traders who go broke on one trade idea like being long corn or short gold this year. If corn keeps going down or gold keeps going higher, traders will profit greatly when right (no problem) but the trader on the wrong side can only stay with their position until the money runs out.  I knew this when I bought my first membership decades ago. What I have found out since then is this is common with traders who have an ego and cannot except being wrong, who enjoy mental masochism, or "need" to make a certain amount of money. When you have made hundreds of thousands of trades you get used to making losing trades, and being wrong what you think. What is unimaginable to me is to put myself in the position of "what I think" on a given trade idea to ride the losing side until I am "busted". Those who go broke on one trade idea will always start when they explain what happened with the words "I did not think" (the unimaginable) the market could or would do what it did. As I have always insisted in this service, no matter how much money you have to trade with you must have a plan and strategy, have a money management plan that on any trade idea you have a defined risk reward (yes, I know that sometimes markets open through your exit price and causes more loss or profit), and avoid being emotional at any cost.

I think you have seen the highs already for our annual "summer rally". Weather is too good and if we continue to get rain in July like in June we should get a good yield. If we get any kind of a rally out of this report, I would not hesitate to get short at resistance levels. I think farmers will sell on any rally in the next 4 weeks. Unless the USDA really changes the picture, I will continue to be bearish, want to sell any resistance level, and look to buy at a support level to take profits, reload my trade gun, and look to sell again. I do not want to take the buy signals. Subscribers who have been with me since June 2009 know well that this has been my "mantra" and "battle cry". I have not only remained bearish fundamentally, I have remained faithful to not fight the chart when at near term support and play the "sell side" when opportunity knocks at strong resistance levels.   

 I will email you the report as soon as I can and should have it done by 9a.m. Chicago time. 

Results for 6/29/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .11 from the actual high; my support was .04 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.50 from the actual high; my support was 19.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 4.20 from the actual high; my support was 2.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .064 from the actual high; my support was .067 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .37 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low. 

July Soybeans for 6/29/10:

In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .02 from the actual low.

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and accurate soybean numbers. Soybeans are holding up going into the report, and it looks like the corn bears were able to take some profits after they pressed the market below the bracket line from 9/8/09 and got the sell stops below that low. Weak corn longs are out by now, and bottom pickers are well aware of the risk going into the report, so I think they will appear after the report no matter bullish or bearish.

NASS confirmed that June 15th was the cutoff date for acreage survey, so until the October report will we have a better idea of how much area was planted to corn and soybeans (and everything else). I look at the crop progress report today and I see that soybean planting increased 4% to 97% which is average for this time and leaves only 2.4 million acres unplanted. Soybean and corn ratings only decreased 2% which to me is bearish because we are still above normal and the next 2 weeks weather should increase the ratings.

I expect prices to hold these support levels going into the report, and so I have no desire to go home short but in no way would I be long. I have seen enough reports in many markets to tell you I am more concerned with the way a market reacts to a report than the report itself. I do not mean the first hour, but that day and maybe a day or two after. Charts and numbers do not read the reports or understand the fundamentals; at best the fundamentals are reflected in my bias while I formulate my numbers. They do tell me where past support and resistance has been, and trend lines as well as gaps do provide me with locations inside the bigger picture (of bracket lines). I trade charts and numbers looking for locations where I can know my risk is small to be proven wrong, and if my numbers hold my reward will be worth more than the risk. The risk is never significant to where emotions can be triggered, and the winners are taken in stride. The name of the game is to not be right the fundamentals, but instead you are rewarded when right the direction and price. I would rather be right the market for all the wrong reasons, than right the fundamentals and lose money.  

July Soybeans for 6/28/10:

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and soybean support was off 1/4 cent from the low and the resistance was off 5 cents. Soybeans are still near their highs of the last 6 weeks while corn is trading near their lows. Soybeans are balanced while corn is extremely oversold.

I have covered all the fundamentals that I feel are relevant and nothing has changed. I am not going to be like all the others who feel they must report "something" and chatter of fundamentals or news of the day that by the time they write it is history and already in the market. Even with option expiration on Friday, the trade floor was very quiet. Thursday night trade was no trade at all, with little volume or range. This could be because the market does not want to assume more risk before the report, and with open interest coming down almost daily, reflects the bulls taking risk off the table.

If we were near $3.55 in July corn or $9.40 in November soybeans I would think about going short into the report, but when corn is near the bracket line support I have no desire to do so. July soybeans are near resistance levels but still above their long term uptrend line, so at this time that market could go either way from here. November soybeans (new crop) have a more bearish chart and I would be more willing to be short. My position if we are at these prices would be to not have a position going into the report, but would rather want to trade it after the report comes out and I see what is there. Not having a position IS a position. (You can be long, short, or "flat" which means no position at all. Fully hedged producers are "flat" even though they have a short position in their "hedge account". Bottom Line: this report is a coin toss up or down, and if I had to guess bull or bear, I continue to call it "bear".

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

August Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 7/2/10

Jul 03, 2010

 

 

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 7/1/10 8:40 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 7/2/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

August Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 7/2/10: My resistance was 90.50, just .07 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 89.50, just .10 from the actual low.

Results for 7/2/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high (only .00 1/2 away in open outcry); my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .43 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 8.50 from the actual high; my support was 4.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 0.50 from the actual high; my support was 2.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .67 from the actual high; my support was .80 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 10 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .063 from the actual high; my support was .055 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry? 

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers


91.00                         

90.50                          

--------------90.00       Pivot 

89.50                           

88.10                    

87.27 FG                        

Trend                       88.45  is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways                 

Weekly chart …….Up                     ATR 1.07

Monthly chart....    Sideways           Overbought 83%


I continue to say "Bracket line is support and as long as the market holds there the longer term bullish trend remains intact".

August Cattle (elec.) for 7/2/10:

Bulls left a "spike low" from Tuesday which is a bullish chart signal.

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.               

 In my daily numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .20 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .70 from the actual low. 

 Cattle: Spot on resistance but not helpful support. I want to trade the numbers today without bias.  

 August Cattle (elec.) for 7/1/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls showed their horns and are gaining momentum. Gap below will be key support going forward so I want to buy the pivot today, and if below there when open outcry begins I want to buy support, but I would only risk .40 on the trade idea.

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/30/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. I want to sell the resistance and not risk more than .40 on the trade idea.

Results for 6/29/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .11 from the actual high; my support was .04 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.50 from the actual high; my support was 19.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 4.20 from the actual high; my support was 2.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 9 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .064 from the actual high; my support was .067 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .37 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low. 

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/29/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. 200 day moving average has been helpful support. I would trade this chart today without bias at this location, with gaps located just above and below the pivot.

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/25/10

Cattle: Spot on support and accurate resistance numbers. I have the same thoughts and numbers as yesterday, and would continue to trade the numbers without bias.

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/24/10

Cattle: Spot on numbers. They did in fact follow through to the downside on Wednesday, but was not able to fill the gap support. Again today I would trade using the numbers without bias, and not risk more than .35 on a trade idea.

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/23/10

Cattle: Spot on resistance and accurate support. Tuesday the market made a new high for the run but closed lower which bodes well for another down day to follow. The difference in this chart for me is that the market closed right above the support, so going lower today will be much harder than if there was no support until much lower price levels. This is what happened on the gold chart on Tuesday. Remember, a chart is a chart and the same lines and rules apply no matter the market the charts are looked at the same. I would trade the numbers without bias if I were to trade today.

Results for 6/22/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .06 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .50 from the actual high; my support was .47 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 6.00 from the actual high; my support was 1.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high; my support was 3.00 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .07 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 0.5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .006 from the actual high; my support was .021 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .12 from the actual high; my support was .35 from the actual low. 

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/22/10

Cattle: Accurate resistance but the support was not in play with the gap higher open and that was the low of the day. I do not know if we were close enough for you to take the sell (off .37 from the high) but that trade idea did work. Today I would trade the numbers without bias.  

August Cattle (elec.) for 6/21/10

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Indeed the market followed through to the downside, and today it has less of a chance to follow through, but the way they closed I think it has the momentum to do so. I want to take the sell signals today and risk no more than .40 on the trade idea.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

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