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October 2011 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report for 10/12/11

Oct 12, 2011

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Projected opening call at 8:50 a.m.:

Corn and wheat $.05 to $.10 lower, soybeans mixed.

WASDE Report for 10/12/11

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 25 million based on lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is lowered 147,000 acres to 73.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels. Sunflowerseed and canola production are projected lower this month while peanuts and cottonseed production are projected higher.


U.S. soybean exports for 2011/12 are reduced 40 million bushels to 1.375 billion reflecting the slow pace of export sales and strong early season export competition from South America. The September 1 stock estimate of 215 million bushels indicated higher-than-expected residual use for 2010/11. As a result, the 2011/12 residual use is projected at 32 million bushels, up 9 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.


Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $12.15 to $14.15 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $335 to $365 per short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.


Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 258.6 million tons, down 0.4 million mainly due to the lower U.S. crop. Soybean production is raised for India and Ukraine. Offsetting is a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised this month based on increased yields for Russia, EU-27 and Turkey, and increased area in Argentina. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is also reduced for Russia and Belarus. Other changes include increased peanut production for Argentina, and increased cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed stocks for 2011/12 are increased 0.5 million tons to 73.0 million with soybeans accounting for most of the change.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 76 million bushels as lower expected domestic use and exports more than offset reduced production. Production is lowered 69 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower spring wheat output as estimated in the September 30 Small Grains report. With tighter domestic supplies and an increase in production in Canada, U.S. imports are raised 10 million bushels, 5 million bushels each for Durum and Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat. Domestic use is lowered 84 million bushels with seed use reduced 4 million bushels on lower planted area and feed and residual use projected 80 million bushels lower on indications from the September 1 stocks. Despite competitive wheat prices relative to corn for feeders in many areas, wheat feed and residual use during June-August is indicated 53 million bushels lower than the same quarter last year. All wheat food use for 2011/12 is unchanged; however, food use is lowered 15 million bushels for HRS wheat and raised an offsetting amount for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat.

U.S. exports for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels lower with HRS reduced 40 million and HRW reduced 10 million. Tighter spring wheat supplies in the United States boost export prospects for Canada and larger exportable supplies in Australia and strong shipments by Russia increase competition in the world market. The season-average price received by producers is projected at $7.10 to $7.90 per bushel compared with $7.35 to $8.35 last month. The higher 2011/12 wheat carryout projection and lower corn prices are both expected to limit seasonal price increases.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 5.4 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks in Australia and higher production in Kazakhstan, Australia, EU-27, Canada, and South Africa. World beginning stocks are raised 2.3 million tons as a 3.2-million-ton increase for Australia (reflecting the latest government stocks estimate) more than offsets numerous, small, downward revisions elsewhere. Kazakhstan production is raised 3.0 million tons based on harvest results that confirm the impact of abundant moisture and near-perfect summer weather on this year's crop. Australia production is raised 1.0 million tons as September rainfall across most of the country's wheat producing areas boosts yield prospects. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for the EU-27 with further upward revisions to official statistics for France and higher reported output in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Production is raised 0.2 million tons each for Canada and South Africa, in line with the latest government estimates.

World wheat trade is raised for 2011/12 as higher expected imports for a number of countries and larger exportable supplies in major exporting countries support increased trade. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey. Smaller increases also are projected for Libya, Thailand, Taiwan, and Tunisia. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons each for Australia and Russia. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Canada and Kazakhstan. Reduced competition from U.S. spring wheat boosts prospects for Canada, while the record crop adds to available supplies in Kazakhstan. World wheat feeding is lowered 4.6 million tons led by the 2.2-million-ton reduction for the United States. Wheat feeding is lowered 2.0 million tons for Russia as exports draw wheat away from domestic use. Wheat feeding is also lowered 1.4 million tons for Australia in part reflecting lower usage indications from the latest official stocks estimate. Global ending stocks are raised 7.8 million tons this month to 202.4 million. As projected, 2011/12 stocks would be a 10-year high.


COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower forecast production. Corn production is forecast 64 million bushels lower with planted and harvested area lowered 385,000 acres and 452,000 acres, respectively. The national average corn yield forecast is unchanged this month at 148.1 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are raised 208 million bushels from the previous projection based on the September 1 stocks estimate. Corn supplies for 2011/12 are forecast 144 million bushels higher. Total U.S. corn use for 2011/12 is projected 50 million bushels lower with reduced exports. Higher expected Black Sea production and exports increase competition for U.S. corn. U.S. ending stocks are projected 194 million bushels higher at 866 million. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel lower on both ends of the range to $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel.


Other 2011/12 feed grain changes this month include a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum exports and a 10-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use. Barley feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on June-August disappearance as indicated by the September 1 stocks and updates to June-August trade. For 2010/11, corn feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels based on the September 1 stocks estimate and other changes to 2010/11 use and supplies. Sweetener and starch use is lowered 15 million bushels based on reported use for the June-August quarter. Corn imports are lowered 3 million bushels for 2010/11.


Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.4 million tons higher with more than half of the increase reflecting the 5.3-million-ton increase in U.S. corn beginning stocks. Global corn production is raised 5.4 million tons with foreign production increases more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Production is raised 4.0 million tons for China to a record 182.0 million tons supported by 2011 weather data, information from crop tours, and early forecasts by officials in China. Ukraine corn production is raised 3.0 million tons as summer precipitation and temperature patterns support a sharp year-to-year increase in yield prospects and early harvest results indicate record yields. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Russia but lowered 0.3 million tons for Serbia.

Estimates of China's 2009/10 and 2010/11 corn production are raised 6.0 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively, in line with data from the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Based on analysis of summer weather data from China's northeast corn growing region during the past decade, NBS provincial yield estimates for 2000 through 2008, and the recently released provincial yield estimates for 2010, NBS yields for 2009 are consistent with the historical relationship between yields and reported summer rainfall and temperatures. Summer weather data and the same statistical relationship support this month's upward revisions to 2010 production. Increases in China corn feed and residual use for 2009/10, 2010/11, and 2011/12 offset this month's production increases leaving China ending stocks nearly unchanged.


Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly driven by increased corn imports by South Korea and higher corn exports from Ukraine and Russia. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.3 million tons for Russia with larger crops expected in both countries. These changes more than offset the reduction projected for U.S. shipments. Global corn ending stocks are projected 5.8 million tons higher for 2011/12 mostly reflecting the larger U.S. beginning stocks. Despite the increase, 2011/12 world corn ending stocks would be the smallest since 2006/07.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is decreased 138,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks more than offsetting higher imports. Imports are increased 189,000 tons to account for a shift in entries from the 2010/11 tariff rate quota (TRQ) and the increased refined sugar TRQ, while imports from Mexico are reduced 63,000 tons to reflect reduced supplies in Mexico. Sugar use is increased 100,000 tons, following a similar increase for 2010/11.

For 2010/11, lower estimated beet sugar production and imports reduced supplies 227,000 tons. Beet sugar production is lowered 125,000 tons to reflect processors= reduced estimates of September 2011 production, as reported in Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Imports are reduced 105,000 tons, mainly due to shifts between fiscal years. Total use is increased 100,000 tons to reflect cumulative refining losses for the year reported in SMD.

Note: Beginning with the November 9, 2011, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, Mexico=s sugar supply and use will be reported in Aactual weight.@ The WASDE will continue to report U.S. sugar supply and use, including imports from Mexico, in raw value terms. Raw value for Mexico sugar converts from actual weight by multiplying by 1.06. The Foreign Agricultural Service will continue to report world sugar supply and use, including for Mexico, in raw value terms.


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised, reflecting higher beef, pork, and turkey production, but lower broiler production. The increase in beef production is largely due to higher expected cow slaughter as drought conditions in much of the Southern Plains and high hay prices will likely keep slaughter high. Higher than expected thirdquarter commercial hog slaughter supports the higher pork production forecast. Broiler production is reduced as lower egg sets point to a sharp reduction in later-year bird slaughter. However, continued relatively heavy bird weights result in an increase in expected third-quarter production. Table egg production is increased but is partly offset by lower expected broiler hatching egg production. For 2012, beef and broiler production is reduced from last month, but pork production is increased. Firstquarter beef production is raised slightly but is more than offset by reduced production later in the year as feedlot supplies decline. Broiler production is reduced as broiler price forecasts are weakened. Pork production is raised from last month. In the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 28, producers indicated they farrowed about 1 percent fewer sows in June-August and intended to keep farrowings near year-ago levels into early 2012. However, the number of pigs per litter continues to grow and is expected to support increased pig crops and supplies of slaughter hogs in 2012.


Beef import forecasts are lowered in 2011 and 2012 as strong demand for beef by competing importers limits shipments to the United States. The beef export forecast is raised as the strong demand in a number of countries is expected to support continued growth in U.S exports. Pork imports are unchanged from last month but the export forecast for 2012 is reduced slightly as expected increased production in several Asian markets may limit export opportunities later in the year. Broiler exports are raised for 2011 but are unchanged for 2012.


Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012. Demand remains stronger-than-expected and the strength is expected to carry into 2012. Hog prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2011 and into 2012 as hog supplies and slaughter are forecast higher. Broiler prices are lowered for 2011 as supplies remain relatively large and demand relatively weak. The pace of price recovery in 2012 is expected to be slower than forecast last month.The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised as the dairy herd has been expanding at a more rapid rate and milk per cow during the summer increased more rapidly than expected. However, the forecast for 2012 is reduced as forecast lower milk prices and weakening milk-feed ratios increase the pace of later year declines in cow numbers. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2011 on slightly weaker butter and cheese exports, but are unchanged for 2012. Skim solids exports are unchanged for 2011 but are lowered for 2012. Import forecasts are unchanged.


Butter and cheese prices for 2011 are forecast lower, but the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecast is unchanged and whey prices are forecast higher. International prices have been weaker which has put some pressure on butter and cheese prices. Butter and cheese price forecasts are also reduced for 2012. NDM prices have also been under pressure from weakening international prices and although the forecast for 2011 is unchanged from last month, the price forecast for 2012 is reduced. Whey prices are raised for both 2011 and 2012 as demand is strong. The Class III price is lowered for 2011, but for 2012 the higher whey price more than offsets a decline in the cheese price, and the Class III price forecast is raised. The Class IV price is lowered for both years due to lower forecast butter and NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.00 to $20.10 per cwt for 2011, and $17.75 to $18.65 per cwt for 2012.


COTTON: The 2011/12 U.S. cotton forecasts feature lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 52,000 bales, as increases for several States, especially Georgia, more than offset a decrease in estimated production for Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced due to lower foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.9 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio of 25.5 percent is higher than the previous two seasons but well below the 5-year average. The forecast for the average price received by producers of 87.5 to 102.5 cents per pound is narrowed 2.5 cents on each end of the range.


The 2010/11 world cotton forecasts include larger supplies, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised about 900,000 bales, due mostly to prior year revisions for Brazil and Bangladesh. World production is raised 1.2 million bales, as increases for Australia, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Mali more than offset a reduction for China. World consumption is reduced nearly 850,000 bales, reflecting current sluggish demand and weaker forecasts for world economic growth. With larger production and lower consumption, world trade is reduced 2 percent from last month, including a 500,000-bale decrease in China's imports. Forecast world ending stocks are raised nearly 3 million bales to 54.8 million. The world stocks-to-use ratio of 48 percent is marginally above the preceding 5-year average.

RICE: U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 186.9 million cwt, down 4.0 million from last month and the smallest crop since 1998/99. The decline is entirely due to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 7,123 pounds per acre, down 150 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.62 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at 116.8 million cwt, 2.5 million below last month and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is still a record forecast at 70.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month. The import forecast is unchanged at 19.0 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2011/12 at 127.0 million cwt is unchanged from a month ago. Total rice exports are projected at 91.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month. The decrease is entirely in the milled and brown rice category, as the rough rice export forecast is unchanged. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are each lowered 1.0 million cwt to 60 million and 31.0 million, respectively. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 36.4 million cwt, down 1.9 million from last month.


The 2011/12 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.

Projected global 2011/12 rice supply, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are increased from a month ago. World rice production is forecast at a record 461.4 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month due primarily to an increase in India. Thailand's 2011/12 rice crop is raised 0.5 million in anticipation of a bumper main-season crop in the Northeast and large off-season crop in the North and the Central Plateau that will likely offset the production losses from the recent flooding. India's 2011/12 rice crop is forecast at a record 100.0 million tons, up 3 percent from last month and up 5 percent from the previous year. India benefitted from a near-record monsoon in 2011. Partially offsetting the production increases are reductions for Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United States. Global consumption is raised 1.8 million mostly due to an increase in India.

Global exports are raised with increases for India and Vietnam, partially offset by decreases in the United States and Pakistan. Imports are raised for Bangladesh and Nigeria. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are projected at 101.4 million tons, up 2.8 million from last month, 3.6 million above 2010/11 and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Forecast ending stocks are raised for Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines, but lowered for Vietnam and the United States.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

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Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

November Soybeans and December Corn Daily Number and Trade Ideas for 10/10/11

Oct 11, 2011

This report was sent to subscribers on 10/8/11 11:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 10/10/11.

November Soybeans 

After the close recap on 10/10/11: My resistance was 11.92 1/2, .00 1/2 from the actual high, and my support was 11.58 1/4, .01 3/4 from the actual low.

December Corn

After the close recap on 10/10/11: My resistance was 6.18 3/4, .00 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 5.99 1/2, .01 from the actual low.

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November Soybeans

11.92 ½
11.82 ¾
11.70
--------------11.60 Pivot
11.50
11.14


5 day chart... Down from last week same day
Daily chart .... Down
Weekly chart ... Sideways
Monthly chart Up $13.41 ¼ is the 200 DMA
ATR 28 Ex. Oversold 4%

nov beans 10 10 11

For 10/10/11: Steep downtrend line is pivotal now, and daily numbers support and resist.

In my daily soybean numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .05 ½ (.02 in open outcry) from the actual high; my support was .02 ¼ from the actual low

December Corn


6.18 ¾ near Uptrend Line Resistance
6.07 ½
-----------5.99 ½ Pivot
5.91 ¼
5.87 ¾ FG Downtrend Line (acts as) Support

5 day chart........ Up from last week same day
Daily chart ...... Down
Weekly chart .......Sideways
Monthly chart .... Sideways 6.44 ¾ is the 200 DMA
ATR 20 Oversold 29%

december corn 10 10 11

For 10/10/11: Downtrend line is support now, gap at $5.87 ¾, and then the low of March supports.

I continue to say "Long term uptrend line acts as strong resistance".

In my daily corn numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .02 ½ (.01 in open outcry) from the actual high; my support and was .05 from the actual low.

10/10/11:

Grains: Spot on numbers. Average trade guess for corn yield is 148.7 BPA, up .6 from the last USDA forecast of 148.1; I am looking for 151 BPA. Average estimated total production is 12,471 MB which is less than the last estimate by 26 MB with a reduction in harvested acres offsetting the higher yield. I think we will see an increase instead. I will go with the USDA 41.8 BPA for soybean yield, but the way exports have been I expect exports will be reduced adding more carryout than expected. If 43 BPA is realized we should trade below $11, if 41 BPA we might need to ration and $13 or higher would probably be needed to accomplish that task.

Right now soybeans might be priced right if the report is as expected, with $11.50 near the lows in the September through November timeframe in 2006, 2009, 2010, but in 2008 with the economic meltdown it was disaster, and this year we all know that is waiting "in the wings" and could come "on stage in the spotlight" with all eyes on it.

Markets "breathe", they cannot keep inhaling or exhaling forever. Corn market inhaled its way to a $.45 correction last week, before exhaling $.27 of it to close the week. You must understand that "value" is not a price but rather a price range. Notice how the downtrend line acted as perfect support on Thursday and Friday, and more proof of how a resistance line acts as support when the market is above it. In my mind it is the place that the bulls will defend and not lose control as would be the case if the downtrend line was recaptured. The trouble the bulls have is the steep downtrend line is not like a longer term line that does not change too much in a given week; this line will be $.40 lower at the end of the week. On Monday the line comes in at the gap of $5.87 ¾ and will be strong support, and if that goes the low of last week should be tested ($5.72 ¼). Bearish report should send the market to test the low of March ($5.44 ¾). Resistance continues to be the long term uptrend line that starts the week at $6.20. That line the bears will defend as they did last week, but for the bears that line only changes $.05 a week and does not present the same risk to defend as the downtrend line does right now.

We are at historic highs for October, harvest pressure is sure to be near if not here already and the PRC is not buying even though the economics are cheap compared to the last few months. If the PRC does start to buy that would really underpin the current market, and if the producers decide to store instead of market, that would also be supportive. The market needs something to support it now, and the funds might further liquidate fearing an economic meltdown. I think production will be raised on Wednesday, and again raised in November.

October soybean meal and soybean oil futures expire on Friday. Banks and the Fed are closed for the holiday on Monday, but the grains are trading and will be in the open outcry session. Soybean chart unlike the corn chart has remained under its steep downtrend line, and until that line is broken, the bulls will remain in trouble. New lows look imminent unless the market can gap higher tonight. This week the resistance will be $11.90, and then the $12.39 level after that.

I have been recommending.... Subscribe now!

Today I want to trade the market without bias today and risk $.06 in corn and $.07 in soybeans on any idea using a stop to protect.

10/7/11:

Grains: Spot on numbers. Corn managed to rally sharply in the overnight session, but was stopped as it neared the uptrend line which it failed to recapture. It once again tested it in open outcry, but after a $.45 correction it lost the ability to attract more buying. In my mind I am only concerned that the market failed to recapture the uptrend line which was a good sell signal no matter what the market is.

You know I look at market to generally be in the middle of the recent trading range before we go into reports. With the poor action closing unchanged, makes me say the high this week is in until the report on Wednesday. It looks to me that the market will probe the downside. The low for pre-report looks also to be in, but I am bearish with an objective of $5.50, and since it is not unusual for production to be raised in the October and November production reports after being lowered the previous 2 months, I look for an eventual test of $5.

Exports were huge on this week's export sales report, but that did little to encourage the market. People who bought this morning "because" of the big sales report, hopefully learned a lesson that does not tell you at what price to get in, get out with a profit, and most importantly it does tell you how much to risk. The problem with fundamentals is that the latest fundamentals even if it has not changed in the 3:45 open outcry, the price it trades at has. How do you determine how much to risk on the idea? Look at a chart, % of price, amount risked? If that is the case, realize it or not, you are trading technical's and not fundamentals. I trade charts, period! I keep a casino owner mentality, not a player. Emotions do not exist in my trading.

Producers should... Subscribe Now

Lastly, I am hearing talk of La Nina again this year, last year SA had a record soybean crop of 75.3 MMT in spite of it. CONAB said they are estimating production this year at 72.2 to 73.2 MMT, with planted acreage up 2 to 3.5%. Celeres (analysts) came out with Brazilian production at 75.2 compared to their estimate last year of 74.9.

I want to day trade the numbers without bias and risk $.06 in corn and $.07 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea.



 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 7 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

 

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.
 

WeeklyService: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

Copy and paste if the link is not working.
 

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=Q93QPW7Y5L6WN

May Your Next Trade Be The Best


Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

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December Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 10/6/11

Oct 07, 2011

This report was sent to subscribers on 10/5/11 2:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 10/6/11.

December Corn

After the close recap on 10/6/11: My resistance was 6.20, .03 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 6.07 3/4, .03 3/4 (only .02 3/4 in open outcry) from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14
hours before today's open outcry?

Grain numbers for 9/8/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 1:40 pm.

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign up: Free Learn a better way to hedge for farmers After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

December Corn


6.36
6.20 Uptrend Line acts as Resistance
-----------6.07 ¾ Pivot & Downtrend Line Resistance
5.95 ½
5.87 ¾ FG

5 day chart........ Down
Daily chart ...... Down
Weekly chart .......Sideways
Monthly chart .... Sideways
Monthly chart .... Sideways 6.44 1/4 is the 200 DMA
ATR 22 Oversold 35%

december corn 10 6 11

For 10/6/11: Uptrend line is resistance now, $5.72¼ and then the low of March supports.
I continue to say "Long term uptrend line acts as strong resistance". (After the close I added today's bar)

In my daily corn numbers on resistance and was .02¼ high; my pivot acted as support and was .00½ from the actual low.

10/6/11:

Grains: Spot on numbers. My comments for Wednesday said "I liked the fact the December corn posted a higher low than yesterday, and the low was above the $5.75 ½ mark. Tonight they gapped higher and have a chance to rally and test $6 and then the downtrend line at $6.10.

We did close above $6 which is constructive, and now the market is in the position to easily hurdle the downtrend line which is pivotal today. First hour of trade tonight probably was inspired by the move in the stock market and crude oil (along with a weaker dollar) after the grains closed, but the market has not managed to attract the PRC, or sellers for that matter.

Random price swings of $.50 or more is quite common in corn and soybeans this year so try and take advantage of that fact. The "reporters" will find reasons along the way and "pin the tail on the donkey" fundamentally to match the price action of the day. They might be accurate and they might not see the riptide of buyers and sellers or their reason why. I look at markets by its chart performance, and try to be patient and make trades when the risk reward is in my favor. Yes, I might be waiting for a place to buy or sell because of my fundamental tilt on the markets, but I rarely take fundamentals into consideration in markets other than the grains.

Chart setup and the funds on the "buy side" of their cards (trading cards) buying 15,000 contracts on the day was the driving factor, but soybeans could not touch their high while corn kept making new highs, because soybeans chart does not have the supportive action the corn chart does.

Informa numbers were 149.5 BPA for corn but lower acreage that equates to a mere 22 MB increase from the USDA September forecast using 148.1 BPA.

Next week's Crop Production report should be the driver of the next move, but unless the report lowers production, corn might be priced right for now. A surprise increase in production should take us down to test $5.44 ¾.

I want to trade the numbers without bias today and risk $.06 in corn and $.07 in soybeans using a stop to protect any idea using a stop to protect.


10/5/11:

Grains: Spot on grain numbers! In each of the last 2 trading days open interest has gone up even with fund selling. That probably means that end users are "bargain hunting" and could be supportive in the near term. I cannot make a case for corn to rally from here. I could see some corrective action back to $6.10 as being possible, but $6.30 to $6.52 would be a gift to sell. If we did not close above $6 I would be disappointed if I was bullish, seeing how we just broke $2.07 off the high made on 8/29/11. Even in 2008 we only broke $.84 from 9/1/10 until 9/30/10, and that was the biggest breakdown in price in over 30 years. The most we rallied in
this period was $.81 last year, and in the 30 years prior we never even rallied $.40. In October 2008 we broke another $1.17, so more downside is likely. Worldwide economic concerns and in the US, and more fund liquidation as seen in
2008 is possible.

Soybeans broke $2.60 compared to 2008 posting a similar loss. In the last 30 years there was only 1 other year we broke $1 in the same period. In almost all years when the market went down in September, it was for less than $.50. Since 2003 is where the real comparisons are, because we are in the "era of the funds" where the pendulum really swings to the extremes. In October 2008 soybeans continued their beating going down a total of $4.74 from September 1st. From day 1 I have always reminded you, markets can and will do anything, my main concern is managing risk, and if you are a producer that equates to staying ahead of your coverage no matter what you think. Think whatever you like about the upside, but do not think away your risk

Monday afternoon FC Stone came out with an estimate of 148.7 BPA, up from their previous forecast of 146.3. FC Stone has a huge number of farmer co-ops and grain elevators, and they do more volume in the corn pit than most of the exporters. They also said production will be up 56 MB from the USDA September forecast. My guess is 151+, what's yours?

FC Stone also came out with a soybean yield of 42.8 BPA up from their September forecast of 41.1, and 1 bushel more than the USDA September guess of 41.8. That is up 72 MB more than the USDA forecast for production, and could raise the 2011/2012 carryout to 225 MB. If exports are reduced, we could see carryout of 250 to 275 MB. Maybe that is what is wrong with the soybean market, yields are going to be a bearish surprise, and that
might be showing up in price with early harvest pressure. As more firms like FC Stone comes out with more bearish numbers, it could help drive the funds to continue to liquidate and we can look at buying near $11.

One would think that grains have broken far and fast enough to buy, but the lesson learned in 2008 taught us that are not true. I really do not care what the fundamentals are except when I think the trade is making a mistake in their forecasts, and I can take advantage of it if it gets to a chart point such as the "double tops" just seen. I want to continue to look for places to sell, and unless at extremes I would only buy a minimum contract size.

If production numbers next Wednesday are ... Subscribe now!

One of my producers reminded me about the crop insurance he has at $6.01, and so he will be making a windfall profit if the market does go down to $5, and another I asked about it confirmed the idea works for him too. They have all mentioned this when we were discussing making plans to hedge, and they baked it into the cake in their decisions. Since I have only worked with producers for 3 years, I forget this fact at times (until they reminded me when they had some crop damage or lost acres) and probably told them that they must keep that off my plate, since the nuances of each farm is not a "one size fits all" like my strategy accomplishes. No wonder why this year is a "dream come true year" when they are making windfall profits because they improved their original hedge many times, and now they are not only in position to make more money if they can rally, they can make more money if the market comes way down. They NEVER were in this position at harvest time before, and I think it will not be the last.

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Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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November Soybean Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 10/3/11

Oct 04, 2011

This report was sent to subscribers on 9/30/11 11:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 10/3/11.

November Soybeans

After the close recap on 10/3/11: My resistance was 11.92 1/2, .02 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 11.60, .02 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14
hours before today's open outcry?

Grain numbers for 9/8/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 2:20 pm.

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Sign up: Free Learn a better way to hedge for farmers After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

November Soybeans


12.07
11.92 ½
--------------11.76 ¼ Pivot
11.60
11.50

5 day chart... Down from last week same day
Daily chart .... Down
Weekly chart ... Sideways
Monthly chart Up $13.43 is the 200 DMA
ATR 33 Ex. Oversold 2%

nov beans 10 3 11

resistance, and daily numbers support.

In my daily soybean numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .08 ½ from the actual high; my support was .06 from the actual low.

10/3/11:

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and spot on soybean support, accurate resistance. An even more bearish corn report than I thought produced a limit down result. Soybean report was friendly but had no chance to overcome the bearish corn stocks numbers which were 164 MB more than the average trade guess. Before the report I felt we could come down to $5.50 ($5.44 ¾ was the low in March), and now the chances are very good we will test that level.

On Monday it looks like we will try and get the sell stops below $5.75 ½ and then I would expect that any corrective rally will be only to the steep downtrend line resistance that starts the week at $6.30. If we can start the week higher I would not hesitate to get protected down to $5 at this time, because when the October production report comes out, if I am correct that it will be bearish too, we should come down to $5.

In June the stocks report came in 350 MB more than the average trade guess, this time 164 MB, so it is obvious the trade was wrong thinking that rationing was not doing its job, but the numbers reflect the stocks that are there and are increasing. The USDA estimated corn yield to be 148.1 BPA on the September report, but I still think it will be 150 BPA or more on the October report. It would not surprise me to see 152 BPA or more. I would think this year's July heat had more of an impact on corn than last year's August heat, but I hear there are 2 camps on this issue. If the impact on corn was not as bad as I would think, then yield could be as high as 155 BPA, and that would cause corn to trade below $5 as in September 2010 when December 2010 corn came down to $4.42, and posted a low of $4.56 in October before rallying to $6.03 ½ in November. Even with declining production and carryout numbers, the market still came down to $5.07 in December before going off the board at $5.74 ½ on its early stage of a record high in corn this year. December 2011 corn ended 2010 at $5.62.

Funds headed for the exits selling 125,000 corn contracts in the last 3 weeks, 46,100 contracts for the week ending 9/27/11 leaving them with 204,000 contracts which was about half of what it was at its peak, which was higher than all recent years except last September. Since Tuesday they probably sold 40,000 more contracts reducing it to 165,000 contracts, which is an average size position for them.

I had pointed out that exports were dismal, feed use should be less due to cheap wheat feed and higher quality corn, ethanol grind has been going down, and the report showed that, and the concern that supplies will be tight have been eased. As the pendulum swung way too high to be realistically sustained, the pendulum is now swinging the other way on concern how large this year's production will be. This year's fall low will be determined by the market sentiment. That is why I am guessing we could test the March low of $5.44 ¾ before the report or after. I base all price projections on the chart, and use the fundamentals as a driver of direction. Unless we get lower production numbers, the bulls will need to see buying from the PRC, and even if we did see some buying, the impact now would not be as great as it would have been with less supply.

USDA reported 10 MB less soybeans in stock, but that was hardly enough to keep soybeans plunging in sympathy to corn and wheat. The funds have liquidated 109,000 contracts in the last 4 weeks, Since Tuesday maybe 18,000 more and that could reduce their position to the smallest position since July 2010. Unless soybean exports pick up there is little to support soybeans if corn continues lower. If production increases that would be bearish for soybeans, and we could test support of $11.02 ¼ made in November 2010 (the low was $11.17 in open outcry). Since there is support from $11.40 to $11.60 before that, I want to extend protection to at least $11.50, and would be more comfortable for a possible bearish production report would be protected down to $11. Major resistance going forward is the downtrend line that starts the week at $12.80, but if they could get near $12.40 I would not hesitate to buy more protection.

There is only 21 days left on the November options that expire on October 21. This makes everything much cheaper than what it was 2 months ago and much cheaper than 6 months ago. November soybeans closed at $11.79, and the ... Subscribe now!

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 7 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.
 

WeeklyService: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

Copy and paste if the link is not working.
 

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=Q93QPW7Y5L6WN

May Your Next Trade Be The Best


Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189

Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

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