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April 2013 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

Hedging 2013 Corn & Trade Ideas for 4/18/13

Apr 19, 2013

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years. Let me teach you how to improve the way you hedge. 

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This report was sent to subscribers on 4/17/13 4:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/18/13.

May 2013 Corn

After the close recap on 4/18/13: My resistance was 6.66 3/4, .02 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 6.39 3/4, .03 1/4 from the actual low.

December 2013 Corn

After the close recap on 4/18/13: My resistance was 5.51, the EXACT actual high, and my support was 5.40 3/4, .00 3/4 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 4/19/13 have already been sent to subscribers at 4:25 pm.

 May 2013 Corn  

6.86                               Bracket Line Resistance                       
6.79                  
6.66 ¾                   
----------6.60 ½               Pivotal           
6.54 ¼                                         
6.47                               Bracket Line Support                        
6.39 ¾                        
5 day chart....         Up from last week same day                                                            
Daily chart   ...       Down                            
Weekly chart ...     Down                 
Monthly chart ....  Sideways           7.35 is the 200 DMA
ATR 16                                                Overbought 84%  

   

For 4/18/13: Bracket line at $6.47 is support, last week's high of $6.66 ¾ is resistance today, and then $6.79 and the bracket line at $6.86 resists.  

In my daily May corn numbers on Wednesday my pivot acted as resistance and was .01 ½ from the actual high; my support was .02 ¼ from the actual low.                  

December 2013 Corn

                                                                     
5.58                                                                      
5.51 XX                                                                      
------------5.46          Pivot                                        
5.40 ¾                                  
5.36 ¾                                  
                                                               
5 day chart....      Up from last week same day                                                               
Daily chart   ...    Down                        
Weekly chart ...  Down                     
Monthly chart ...Sideways         6.07 is the 200 DMA
ATR 11 ¾                                       Overbought 83%   

  

For 4/18/13: I continue to say "The bracket line at 5.47 is pivotal today, above $5.51 the market turns friendly; $5.71 resists, daily numbers support. I added 2 new DT lines; the one at $6.65 is stronger".  
      
In my daily December 2013 corn numbers on Wednesday my resistance was .01 ¾ from the actual high, my support was .02 ¼ (pivot was the EXACT low in open outcry) from the actual low.         

4/18/13:

Grains: I continue to say that trading the fundamentals is quite a task, and only an excuse to justify a new or old trade idea. It has always been much easier to get the "price" right, than getting a fundamental idea AND the price right. Bullish news at a support level is one thing, at a resistance level it is another, as you have seen for yourself through this service. I could care less what makes a market move to a price level where I can buy, or up to a price level I can sell. I know where I am wrong and the why, which most fundamentals do not come close to knowing. They might know the fundamental reason why they want to be long or short, but fundamentals do not offer how to protect the idea from losing too much money before the fundamental reason is proven wrong. 

May corn is losing ground to the July, and could be because when the "buyers" come in, they are buying July or December instead, and staying away from the "spot month" May. May report reaction high has been strong resistance as I had said it would, and continues to do so, until it does not. If it does get above there, then the market can advance and attempt to test $6.79, I would not bet that it will get there, but if it can get there I would bet by selling it. If it did get there it certainly will help support the other months too. The reason it is having a hard time advancing from here, is the fact that some of the rationing is being done by the cash markets and its strong basis levels. CIF basis levels which I have not looked at in weeks, for soybeans were $.55 over the May futures contract, which is a nosebleed level I cannot remember. I have the same prices parameters and thoughts as before. Half of my producers had moved into the July options knowing they will be keeping what they have left from 2012 (Hedges now are from the original December options that locked in $8 and continues to be protected using options since then, going after more profits and a better basis). I never tell a producer what to do when it comes to cash sales, but I will tell you that there is no way to hold corn past July without a huge loss.

I would expect fundamentally the bulls would want to buy the December contract especially since the weather can be played in many ways, but I could give an equal argument of getting a better yield than I thought 3 months ago when the drought still had a strong grip on the western corn belt. As you know, I could care less why the market is near $5.51, I view it as a sell just because it is $5.51 and need to risk little to be proven wrong. All it needs to do is get above there by more than $.03 ½ and I am out, and was wrong the idea for one reason alone, $5.51 could not resist anymore. Since the bracket line is $5.47, if below there I would still sell it, and use a stop like $5.52 ¼ to protect the idea. There is nothing more that my bullish and bearish producers would like to see right now than a rally that gets to $5.95 ¾. We all know now that the market is vulnerable to lower prices with a good production this year, so we would all like to...Subscribe now. I am using the same parameters as before, nothing has changed.

This allows you to be in control of what you do, and can change your thoughts and ideas no matter if the market moves one way or another and back again. Nobody can control the market, but we control what we do, the unhedged farmer does neither. Our hedge always starts out to do the most important task, to protect the first $.60 to $.80 down at the time of the hedge, but allow the same amount of upside unhedged at the same time. Bulls and bears can reflect their bias completely by .......(subscribe now) reflect their exact thoughts.

Now you are empowered, you need not even know the fundamentals, all you need to do is participate in the market, and the strategies based on and using the charts, is all you need to market your grain. My strategies allow you to gamble, but unlike all the ways you have tried in the past. I write at least twice a year that it is my opinion from what I have seen over the decades including services, is one out of a hundred traders make money trading, It does not matter if they are doctors, lawyers, Indian chiefs, farmers, math majors, they all have one thing in common, they cannot trade successfully for a sustained period of time. It seems so easy, but yet it is so difficult. The main reason for failure is the lack of risk control, and the lack of discipline to execute your approach for a sustained period of time.   

I am still bearish at these levels, but would really like to be wrong and see the market rally. "I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans".    

4/17/13: 

Grains: I am not going to talk about planting delays, weather, what the reports said and what the bulls say, or any other fundamental at this time, because the consensus of all of it is already reflected in the last trade price. As they have already done, all participants already has cast their vote on which way the market is going by voting buy or sell, and that is the task that I concentrate on, knowing that when the market gets to supports or resistances there will be the buyers and sellers. They might cast their vote because of the fundamentals; I cast my vote based on the chart. My trades clearly show where my entry and exits are, their trade ideas are the same during open outcry yet the price changes, so how does the fundamental idea relate to one minute the market is in their favor, the next minute they are in a losing trade? How does their idea tell them when to take a profit, or when to take a loss?  

Over the decades one thing has been clear to me from all the services I have seen no matter hedge or speculator, they do not respect risk. Even in some winning trades, they could be risking $1,000 to make $5,000, be up $4,200 on the trade, and finally get stopped out for a $2,000 profit. I look at it like they lost $2,200, not make $2,000. The reason is they were up $4,200 and were pursuing $800 more in profits and lost $2,200 instead. I would never risk more than $800 to make $800, if I did not have support risking only $800 from there to make the last $800, then I would just exit my trade. They seem to only look at the $800 and not concerned with the stop out losing $2,200, maybe that is why they give you trade recommendations instead of taking them. Where is the common sense and logic in the way they approach risk and reward? More than a few hedge services are embracing that risk management, they are 40% hedged and intend to sell it over $6 on a certain date in time if above $6 on that day, ok let's say you can go with that, but in the meantime they said their plan if it goes below $5.50 is to refuse to sell it. I said what is their plan if the market stays below $5.50 and is in a bear trend? The answer, they have no plan! I never want to be a victim of a market, and never getting out of a losing trade exposes you to disaster. That is why I always tell you that you should always use a stop or a known risk strategy, know what you are doing and why, and if something does not seem logical such as risking more than you are willing to make, then do not do it. I never risk more on an idea that I am pursuing to make.      

We have established the sideways ranges now in corn and soybeans, by using the recent lows as support, and using the resistances levels that were already known. There is nothing more I would like to see right now than a rally, now that everyone has either sold $.20 to $.40 of their $1 or more put spreads, or bought back $1 of  their $1.60 or more call spreads, or both.

May corn had gained $.03 ¾ on the July, and is too strong to sell as a spread, but can be day traded. I cannot use the May numbers along with the basis of the spread to get my July numbers, the spreads move 30% of the average day's trading range, so I must use the July chart to get my July numbers. I will shift to the July contract in 2 weeks just after first notice day, I cannot remember doing this before the last week the contract goes "off the board". When I first started trading on the floor, they had "clackers" (electronic price boards that would "clack" when the prices changed) that replaced most of the chalk "boards" that time and sales clerks would write down the bids and offers in the back months, and last trade prices, and desks on the floor would use binoculars to see the boards instead of sending a runner.

December corn I would sell as a speculator and improve my downside in my hedge account (or new hedges) near $5.51, and ... Subscribe now.

"I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 ½ in corn and $.06 in soybeans".   

4/16/13:

Grains: Sunday night corn and soybeans kissed their resistances and within a minute rejected it and went lower. Things got worse in open outcry. Trying to figure out how much of the sell off was "outside markets" is a waste of time and effort, my focus is always on the charts and the opportunities they provide me, not the reason the market swings to a support or resistance level.

I have been bearish since September 2012 and continue to be, and as I have said before, with weather permitting I think December corn will be at $4.50 or lower, $10 or lower November soybeans by harvest. We have done very well improving our hedge buying near supports, and selling (buying more put protection) when at resistance levels. Same thing goes for our old crop hedges, taking advantage of rallies by locking in a higher put, and the breaks by taking profits on the "call spreads" sold (reselling on rallies).   

Funds are liquidating not only their grain positions, but commodities in general. When they are done the market will find it easier to go back up. But what really continues to bother me is the fact that most hedging services have not hedged more than 40% of this year's crop, and that is really bearish to me. Farmers are not end users; they are producers and must eventually sell their product. The main reason they did not sell it yet is because they have "reasons" why they should wait and sell it for a higher price. I have no problem with that, and I do not have a problem being wrong the idea, but I have a huge problem not having a "plan" to limit the losses with some kind of "hedge". If the market has a 50/50 chance of going up or down, then why would you risk/lose more than you are willing to make? Trying to sell it for $.50 more but watching it go down over $1, does not make sense to me or any professional gambler. You should be looking for ideas that risk little if wrong and that rewards nicely when right.

We hedged from September 2012 and were 100% hedged by the end of the year. Almost everyone for the 2013 crop locked in $6.40 or $6.50 corn, $13.20 to $13.60 November soybeans. New subscribers since February 2013 have locked in $5.60 December corn and $12.60 or $12.80 November soybeans put spreads. Everyone had the right to at least the first $.80 upside unscathed, so nobody was handcuffed to pursue more gains. It is never too late to hedge 2013, and still have upside open in case the market can rally for whatever the reason.  

Back to the charts: November soybeans came $.02 from the first resistance of $12.35, which continues to be resistance going forward. It made a new low for the year which is never friendly let alone bullish. The only support I see is if they buy November and sell May or July, but once that spread finds support, November will sell off in tandem with the old crop. Supports is the gap at $12.04 ¼.

May corn had a nice $.40 corrective rally, but could not take out the high on report day. Below the bracket line at $6.47 which is now resistance. 2013 low of $6.26 ½ is support and then the bracket line support of $6.11.

December corn kissed our resistance of $5.51, and then as I said below $5.47 will warrant a retest of this year's low at $5.25 ½, and then the 2012 low at the gap at $5.11.

Unhedged corn and soybean new subscribers should not hesitate to put on new hedges. You can get strong protection from here, as well as upside from here, and it is cheap to do now. Having "at the money" protection and having "at the money upside" is what I have always been saying, and that you should always have some risk protection in place. You have learned how to do this real time, and new subscribers are learning too, but comfortable and understand what they have on.                     
      

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, and S&P

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Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

May Soybean Hedging & Trade Ideas for 4/15/13

Apr 16, 2013

Sign up: Free Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years.

Sign up: Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

This report was sent to subscribers on 4/12/13 11:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 4/15/13.

May Soybeans

After the close recap on 4/15/13: My resistance was 14.19, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 13.92 3/4, .01 from the actual low.

All charts and numbers for 4/16/13 have already been sent to subscribers at 2:40 pm.

May Soybeans


14.49 ¼ 200 DMA
14.36
14.19
------------14.12 ½ Pivot
14.06
13.99 ½
13.92 ¾


5 day chart... Up from last week same day
Daily chart .... Sideways
Weekly chart... Down
Monthly chart ....Sideways 14.49 is the 200 DMA
ATR 22 ¾ Ex. Overbought 90%

 

 May chart is on top; November chart is on the bottom. 

For 4/15/13: Daily numbers support and not much resistance above $14.19 until $14.49.


November support is $12.20 1/2, bracket line resists at $12.58, downtrend line is next at $12.60.Bracket line at $12.25 1/2 is pivotal. Day resistance is $12.35, $12.39, and $12.48.


In my May daily soybean numbers on Friday my resistance was .07 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.02 3/4 from the actual low.

4/15/13:
Grains: Old crops greatly gained on the new crops, and posted a nice week for the bulls. That could continue in an up or down market this week. Friday was a low volume choppy day. Everybody knows what the reports had to say, what the weather and forecasts are, and have placed their bets on their perceptions of the fundamentals. I know enough that I would not bet on any of those factors, and feel comfortable to trade what opportunities I see in the charts instead.


December will benefit from the strength in the old crop, but faces stiff resistance at the bracket line at $5.71. The newly drawn downtrend lines at $5.62 and $5.66 comes first. There is no fundamental reason I can see without weather for December corn to get past $5.71. Below the bracket line which is now support at $5.47 will warrant a test of the low this year of $5.25 1/2. The low of 2012 for this contract was the gap low at $5.11, so as far as I am concerned this "double bottom" will be strong support this year, and will not be broken until
 
May soybeans posted over $.50 in gains this week, and clawed back half of the losses since the report 2 weeks ago. That $14.60 should be strong resistance now, and the low posted last week should be good support. We are also almost back to the middle of the bracket line support and bracket line resistance, so I have no bias whatsoever, and would flip a coin, you call it!


November soybeans tested the bracket line support that goes back to July and could be a "double bottom" now at $12.25 1/2 (low of $12.20 1/2) and will be strong support until broken. The downtrend line coupled with the bracket line resistance provides major resistance now at $12.62 3/4. If you have not already, seriously think about buying some call spreads back if we get above $12.35, $12.39, and certainly if above $12.63.


Old crop is to be day traded under these conditions, new crop for longer term trade ideas. I want to sell new crop corn or soybeans if the market can rally to a strong resistance level. In less than a year we have seen record high prices, record inverse carry charge spreads, and it would not surprise me to see more spread records fall. Last 5 years should have prepared you for whatever is to come, new highs for the year, new lows for the year, up, down, sideways, or inside out. Just try and take advantage of the pendulum swings when you can, and limit your risks. Participate, you can be long or short and control the amount wagered precisely the way we are using options, and you can be bullish or bearish short term and reflect it by a "morph", and might be the opposite in the long term, but whatever you do your position should reflect what protection and upside you want ON EXPIRATION.


I recommended... Subscribe now!
You are always long or short from the last trade price, as well as the unhedged producers, so always make yourself comfortable with your hedge as time goes on. If you are bearish, the best thing to do is to stay ahead of your coverage and at the same time give yourself a little "wiggle room" in case the market rallies. You want to be rewarded for being wrong too! As you have seen me say many times, call spreads sold for $1 or more and collected $.20+ has done their job considering they are worth less than $.05 and there is more than 7 months remaining until expiration. These market can move "faster than a speeding bullet" so I always keep in mind that "markets can and will do anything". Knowing that, I always want to not risk much on any idea, and even though I am bearish in the long run, does not restrict me from thinking and planning for the "what if" rally and buying back a call spread or selling some put spread by now. Like you did in the original hedge and did not collect money from that call spread not sold, and what was not collected was same as you paying for it. I am risking little to gain much more if it does. If I stay in something worth $.05 after making $.15, I am risking much more than what is to be gained, and will take a long time to collect. I really like to make money when I am wrong.

"I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea."

4/12/13:
Grains: I also recommend buying a call spread such as the November $14.40/$15.40 call spread if November soybeans trade at $12.53 or higher. The stop prices for the futures are both valid, but adjust the strikes to suit your needs. If you know this is what you want to do, or at a price level at another resistance level, then it takes the responsibility out of your hands for execution of what you want to do without hesitation or second thought. The thinking was done when you placed the order, and you are being responsible because you placed the stop order that takes care of risk.


The market was being mostly driven by spreading old crop versus new, and the May contracts against the
July, especially corn. I would not want to touch the old crop spreads, but if I was day trading it, I would want  to day trade from the "long side" (long May short July) and would take home only a few at best. Same goes for  soybeans. Both soybeans and corn bull spreads widened on Thursday, but May. December corn was trading  much of the day at $.08 gain to the May versus the December, but huge profit taking before the close brought
that spread back to only a $.01 gain for the day at settlement.


May soybeans need to make a new high for the week and close higher to turn the charts friendly, a close over $14.11 1/2 would be bullish. November closed out last week at $12.28, and needs to close above the bracket line support at $12.25 1/2 that it kissed on Thursday. As long as above there the bulls have a chance, and it seems that the old crop is saving it from lower prices considering it is up $.39 3/4 for the week on Thursday's close. I continue to want to sell any rally at resistance, or below the $12.25 1/2 line especially for new hedges.

"I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea. Corn broke $.32 1/2 on report day from high to low; you always need a plan for risk".

4/11/13:
Grains: Report highlights I feel have meaning: USDA kept on farm prices unchanged for soybeans at $13.80 to $14.80, and $7.80 for wheat down $.05. Corn price was lowered $.15 for corn down to $6.65 to $7.15. Corn ending stocks came in at 757 MB (bullish) down from the trade estimate average of 812 MB. Ending stocks
for soybeans fell 11 MB below expectations to 125 MB (bullish), and wheat added 4 MB to 731 MB (bearish). SA corn and soybean production came in over expectations (bearish). There was a 10+ MMT gain in world grain stocks (very bearish and shows how high prices destroys demand).

You can see the face value of these numbers for yourself, and I shrug my shoulders and say, I don't care, but  all these services that have nothing to write to actually help you understand at least the risk reward that you face, or have substantial amount of risk hedged one way or another, they only have their take on the fundamentals to sell, and they tell you the fundamentals are the reason for you to continue to assume the risk of being unhedged. Or they tell the speculators what the market should do (go higher or lower) based on the fundamentals, they can sell that. What they cannot sell is becoming self reliant with no need to even know there is a report out. Do you really think that a trader on the floor is going to leave the pit to go read what the report had to say? Traders know what they are doing, and the mere fact that you cannot read and trade at the same time proves what I have been saying, you never know what the market will do but you should always know what you are doing and why. Your goal should be to become self directed.

The drivers are now the funds willingness to keep their long positions, farmers' willingness to sell, and the end users need or want to buy. For me this is bearish. Time is on the side of the bears until weather becomes a factor, now it is not. I am not going to trade the weather through grains especially at this time. It is all in the charts, when it gets to a resistance it should find good sellers, and when at supports you will find buyers. But the sellers should have much more confidence selling the resistances than buying unless at a strong support level.

It would be impossible to read the report or just get the key numbers, and trade. The electronic session found their computers respond to the numbers and initially became buyers that set off buy stops that probably set off more buy stops because of the lack of orders working going into the report. It was thin and probably not liquid. But whoever was long and seen windfall profits or wanted to go short, sell orders flooded the market. Of course

I continue to prefer to take the sell signals rather than the buy signals, but day trade without bias and risk $.03 1/2 in corn and $.06 in soybeans, which was all that was needed to make winning trades on report day without risking much on any idea. Corn broke $.32 1/2 on report day from high to low; you always need a plan for risk.

4/10/13: Grains: As you know markets move up and down and in between, and in volatile markets it happens many times. So if you look at the last thing you do as being right or wrong in the short term, it can be right later on, and then wrong again as time passes. It must be the right thing for you to do when you do it (or why would you do it), not what the market does afterward.

The report comes out at 11am today, so you do have some time to adjust your position to be comfortable no matter the result. I looked at articles today and have seen the same "stories" for decades. Some do not believe the USDA numbers, and 99 out of 100 of them are the people who are on the wrong side of the market. The average guess for corn stocks is 812 MB, so old crop depends on what the numbers show, as well as production and demand estimates from around the world. I read an article that is already saying no matter what the USDA says, it is incredible. Even if you agree, that would mean you are taking the word of a service over the word of the USDA, and let's say you are ok with that too, but how do they get THEIR numbers and how are they more accurate, when the government has a vastly larger bureaucracy to gather information? I am not telling you to believe anything, I am telling you the USDA numbers are the USDA numbers, and I do not see the market all eyes at attention when these analysts' numbers come out. When these same analysts look at the past, they are always comparing themselves to the USDA; the USDA does not compare itself to these analysts.

The bottom line has always been for me, I do not care what the report says, I care how the market reacts to it. Fundamentals does not put money in your pocket, the price does. As you know, bullish reports are being sold within 4 days in the last 18 months, and this is always in play on report day. If the report is bullish or bearish, that will not tell me to buy or sell, the chart does that for me. Yes, like the last report, I said it would go much lower and it did, and did not expect too much more after it going down $1, and now here we are correcting
where it came from, reducing the commitment to further downside at this time. I have wrote this every time needed, and if we were at the bottom right now especially near a long term support I would tend to buy it with a known risk strategy, and if we were at a resistance and an extreme at this time I would sell it with a known risk strategy. My opinion does not drive my trading, my charts do. Yes, I can get a bias like the last report, but that is what it is a bias, not a trade idea.

You can say all of these services are "cold" right now, they could not pick their nose let alone a winning horse you would say if you were at the racetrack, so why would you listen to services who has been "handicapping"
the grain market so poorly, and getting down to making their "last bets" to try and get even? We started to do something at $6.50, I even have one producer that bought the $6.60 put spread from September 2012 and hedged the last one in December at $6.60 (the December 2013 corn), and has kept it and "morphed" down to  $5 4 months ago. Almost everyone hedged at $6.40 or higher, what have they done? Wait, sell it in the spring  or summer, sell at last year's high of $6.65, and now even some suggesting selling it next year, are you  kidding me? Many are still holding 50% or more of last year's crop, are you kidding me? Are they producers
or investors they are giving advice to? Watching all time highs come and go and still not selling or at least hedged, and they are suppose to reduce your risk, is like me trying to perform brain surgery, they should have someone else do it. Instead of reducing risk, they lost more than they were willing to make, and nothing says the market cannot keep going down.

They do not have a plan for risk as their strategies have clearly shown, and even some who sold the old crop recommended buying a call and selling an out of the money put (or 2) to pay for it, are now long once again since the puts are in the money. Strategies like that put you at risk, not take it off the table. BE SELF DIRECTED, you could not have done worse than what seems to be out there, the worst you could have done was like them, with most being at least 60% unhedged right now.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, and S&P's.

My numbers usually are sent at least 2 hours (via your email) in advance of the night session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

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Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
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   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


 

WASDE Report for 4/10/13

Apr 10, 2013

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WASDE Report for 4/10/13

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 15 million bushels higher this month with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance.  Seed use for 2012/13 is raised slightly based on producer planting intentions for 2013/14 as reported in the March 28 Prospective Plantings.  Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected 15 million bushels lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks.  Feed and residual use is projected lower for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for Soft Red Winter and White wheat.  All-wheat imports are unchanged, but a small increase in HRW wheat is offset by a decline in durum.  The projected range for the wheat season-average farm price is narrowed  5 cents on both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico.  The increased stocks primarily reflect balance sheet revisions that lower 2011/12 domestic wheat use for several countries this month.  Global 2012/13 production is nearly unchanged, but notable changes are made for some countries.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Morocco with an upward yield revision.  EU-27 production is decreased 0.2 million tons with lower reported output for the United Kingdom.  Saudi Arabia production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower area.  Smaller reductions are made for Chile and Tunisia.

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons.  Exports are increased 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27.  Exports are also raised for the FSU-12 with Ukraine up 0.5 million tons and Russia up 0.2 million tons.  Import changes are made for a number of countries.  The biggest increases are for Iran, Algeria, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates.  The biggest declines are for Morocco, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.  World wheat feed and residual use is lowered 5.2 million tons with much of the decline resulting from a 3.0-million-ton reduction for China.  Wheat feed use is also lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with smaller reductions made for Russia, Vietnam, and Ukraine.  World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons higher with China stocks raised 3.0 million.  Increases for North Africa, EU-27, Iran, and the United States more than offset a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and smaller reductions for FSU-12 and Saudi Arabia.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats.  Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year.   The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks.  Adding to 2012/13 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports.

Domestic corn use for 2012/13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance.  Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices, and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August).  Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine.  Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 125 million bushels.

The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are lowered 20 cents at their midpoints to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel and $6.60 to $7.10 per bushel, respectively.  The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.30 to $6.50 per bushel and $3.75 to $3.85 per bushel, respectively.
 
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher with a 1.1-million-ton increase in world coarse grain production.  Higher world corn production is partly offset by reductions in China sorghum and Algeria barley output.  Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil as continued favorable growing season weather boosts prospects for production to a record 74.0 million tons.  EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with upward revisions to production in Spain, Hungary, and Poland.  Corn production is also increased 0.2 million tons for Russia on the final government estimate.  Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output for South Africa, Vietnam, and Serbia.  South Africa production is lowered 0.5 million tons as more heat and dryness in March further trim yield prospects in the western and west central parts of the growing belt.

Global coarse grain trade for 2012/13 is raised slightly as a small reduction in world corn exports are more than offset by increases for EU-27 barley and India sorghum.  Corn exports are lowered 0.6 million tons for the United States and 0.5 million tons for South Africa, but exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Ukraine.  Global corn feed and residual use is down 5.3 million tons with much of the decline reflecting the reduction in the United States.  Feed and residual use is also lowered for China, Egypt, Mexico, and Serbia.  A 1.5-million-ton increase in EU-27 corn feed and residual use is partly offsetting.  Global corn stocks are raised 7.8 million tons with 3.2-million-ton increases for both the United States and China, and a 0.9-million-ton increase for Brazil.

RICE:  Higher-than-previously expected March 1 U.S. rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March 28, results in a 5.0- million-cwt reduction in all rice 2012/13  domestic and residual use, and a commensurate increase in ending stocks.  No changes are made on the 2012/13 supply side or to projected exports.  Long-grain 2012/13 domestic and residual use is lowered 4.0 million, and medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million. The all rice 2012/13 export projection is unchanged at 108.0 million cwt.

NASS estimated March 1 all rice rough stocks at 104.3 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 6.7 million cwt (9.5 million on a rough-equivalent basis). The March 1 all rice stocks estimate on a rough-equivalent basis at 113.8 million cwt is up 0.8 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.9 percent from the preceding 5-year average.  The decrease in 2012/13 domestic and residual use led to a 5.0 million cwt or 17 percent increase in all rice ending stocks to 34.1 million cwt.  Long-grain ending stocks are raised 4.0 million cwt to 20.4 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks increased 1.0 million to 11.5 million.

The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2012/13 is reduced to 70 percent, down 0.25 percentage points from last month.  The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers' Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through January and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The midpoint of the 2012/13 long-grain, medium- and short-grain, and all rice season-average prices are unchanged at $14.50 per cwt, $15.90 per cwt, and $14.90 per cwt, respectively.

World rice production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 467.6 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, which are partially offset by increased projections for Ecuador,  Indonesia, and the Philippines.  Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons, largely due to reductions for Burma, Brazil, Pakistan, the Philippines, South  Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States.  Trade projections for 2012/13 are little changed from a month ago.  Global 2012/13 ending stocks at 103.8 million tons are up 0.5 million from last month, but down 1.7 million from the prior year.

OILSEEDS:  The U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion.  The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.  Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year's drought.  Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.  Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month.  Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks.  Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil. 

The season-average price range for soybeans is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 48 to 50 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $415 to $435 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month.  South American soybean production accounts for most of the change.  Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area.  Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years.  Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield.  Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil.  Other changes this month include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, higher sunflowerseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade.  Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States.  Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational.  Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year.  Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico, and Vietnam.  Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 122,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher imports from Mexico. Lower planted area and later seeding of the 2013 sugarbeet crop, compared with last year, reduce expected early harvest and sugar production in August and September.  For 2012/13 sugar use, the strong pace to date supports an increase of 100,000 tons.

For Mexico, 2012/13 cane sugar production is increased based on increased sugarcane yields.  Exports are increased both to U.S. and world markets, while higher ending stocks are in line with recent government forecasts.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month.  Beef production is forecast down as lower expected fed cattle and bull slaughter more than offset greater cow slaughter.  The pork production forecast is raised as the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slightly higher-than-expected first-quarter pig crop and a smaller decline in the number of sows which farrowed or are expected to farrow in the first half of the year.  Hog carcass weights are also raised as feed prices are forecast lower.  The broiler production forecast is lowered for the first quarter based on production data to date, but subsequent quarters are unchanged.  Turkey production is forecast lower as the turkey price forecast is reduced and hatchery data points to a slowdown in poult placements.  The egg production forecast is lowered, reflecting recent hatchery data.

The beef export forecast for 2013 is lowered, reflecting the pace of trade in the first quarter. Beef imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania.  Pork exports are cut as exports to a number of markets are relatively slow.  The broiler export forecast is reduced from last month on expected higher prices.

Cattle prices are unchanged from last month.  Hog prices are lowered as greater inventories and weaker forecast exports are expected to pressure prices. Broiler prices are raised on robust current prices and demand.  Turkey price forecasts are lowered as demand has been weaker-than-expected.  The egg price forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected first quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is reduced on lower milk per cow in the first quarter. Cow numbers are unchanged from last month.  Fat-basis imports are reduced mostly on lower imports of anhydrous products.  The skim solids import forecast is reduced largely on lower expected imports of milk protein concentrates.  Export forecasts are unchanged from last month.  Fat-basis ending stocks are forecast higher, but skim-basis stocks are lowered.

With slightly lower forecast 2013 milk production and improved domestic product demand, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised.  As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are higher than last month. The all milk price for 2013 is higher at $19.45-$19.95 per cwt.

COTTON:  This month's 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include offsetting increases in production and exports, resulting in ending stocks of 4.2 million bales, unchanged from last month's forecast.  Production is raised 280,000 bales based on USDA's final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2013.  Domestic mill use is unchanged.  Exports are raised to 13.0 million bales, based on the larger supply and strong export shipments to date.  The marketing-year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.

The 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher beginning and ending stocks and sharply higher trade.  Beginning stocks are raised mainly in India due to adjustments to the 2010/11 and 2011/12 balance sheets.  World production is forecast slightly lower as a reduction for Brazil is partially offset by the increase in the United States.  World consumption is raised slightly, as recent data indicate higher consumption for India and Vietnam.  Forecast world trade is raised 1.8 million bales, including a 1.5-million-bale increase for China, based on reported allocations of additional import quotas to mills.  Exports are raised for India, the United States, and Australia, but are lowered for Brazil and Mexico.

World 2012/13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month.  China's higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from the massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales.  Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month. 

 

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My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

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If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser:

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Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.


 

Crop Production Report for 4/10/13

Apr 10, 2013

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Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 36 years.

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Crop Production Report for 4/10/13

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 
2012 and 2013

 

 

 

March Weather Summary

The persistence of a large high-pressure system over the North Atlantic led to a southward displacement of the polar jet stream across the central and eastern United States. That resulted in a steady delivery of cold, Canadian air, leading to below-normal March temperatures in most areas from the Plains to the East Coast. Monthly temperatures averaged more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in portions of North Dakota and neighboring areas. In contrast, mild weather covered much of the West, leading to premature melting of high-elevation snow packs; however, the Western warmth also promoted spring fieldwork and crop development.
The North Atlantic blocking high also slowed the normal progression of storm systems, leading to an active pattern in some parts of the country.

 In particular, significant precipitation fell in several regions, including portions of the northern Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley. On several occasions, precipitation fell in the form of late-season snow; however, precipitation largely bypassed several areas, such as the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast region, and parts of the Northeast.Most of the West also experienced drier-than-normal weather, fueling concerns about spring and summer water supplies - especially from California to the central and southern Rockies.Agricultural highlights included the lack of spring fieldwork in the Midwest - in stark contrast to March 2012 - and continuing stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat from South Dakota to Texas. In parts of the Midwest, temperatures during March 2013 averaged more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit below those observed a year ago.

 On the central Plains, drought was so deeply entrenched that even a moderately wet March failed to substantially improve subsoil moisture levels or crop conditions. On the southern Plains, a return to dry conditions coupled with late-month freezes, maintained or increased stress on winter wheat. Late-March freezes also struck much of the remainder of the South, threatening emerging summer crops, heading winter wheat, and fruit crops; however, Southern crop development was far behind last year's pace due to persistently cool conditions, helping to reduce the overall threat of freeze injury.

March Agricultural Summary

Below average March temperatures stretching from the Great Plains eastward led to fields remaining frozen for longerthan normal resulting in delays of spring fieldwork for portions of the Great Lakes region and Midwest. Most notably, temperatures in portions of the northern Great Plains fell to more than 9 degrees below normal. Elsewhere, warm conditions in the Southwest provided producers ample time for fruit, vegetable, and hay harvest, as well as spring planting. Precipitation was below average throughout parts of the United States during the month, with much of the southern and western portions of the country receiving moisture totaling less than 50 percent of normal.Field preparation for row crops was ongoing throughout much of the southern half of the Nation as March began, with producers cultivating fields, applying fertilizers and herbicides, and irrigating fields ahead of planting. In California, rice paddies were drained and leveled, while seeding was underway in Louisiana and Texas by March 17. Sugarcane producers in Florida and Texas were harvesting the remainder of their 2012 crop toward month's end. By March 31, small acreages of most row crops had been planted, but, when compared with last year's early start, the overall planting pace was behind normal in most areas.


Despite an increase in precipitation compared with recent months, soil moisture levels and winter wheat conditions in the central and southern Great Plains failed to show substantial improvement during March. Conversely, irrigated small grain crops across the Southwest were developing well. High winds blew throughout Texas during the month, quickly drying out any available topsoil moisture. On March 31, thirty-four percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 33 percent on November 26, 2012 and 58 percent from the same time last year. Throughout much of the Hard Red growing region, soil moisture shortages negatively impacted crop condition 
during winter dormancy.
 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?
 

The markets now covered daily are Soybeans,Corn, and S&P

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover markets for less than $10 a day.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

If clicking on the above link does not work please copy and paste the following in your browser:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=D5MG7VPCUWW2N

Howard Tyllas

Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email: dailynumbers@futuresflight.com
http://www.futuresflight.com/

   Tel.1-312-823-9189,  1-702-405-7245

Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk.In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied romise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

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