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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Crop Production Report 2/9/2010

Feb 09, 2010


USDA Crop Production Report 2/9/2010
 

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 Released February 9, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service

(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Crop Production

 

     Crop Summary:  Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010     

                               (Domestic Units) 1/                             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :     Area Planted      :    Area Harvested    

              Crop              :-----------------------------------------------

                                :   2009    :   2010    :   2009    :   2010   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :                  1,000 Acres                 

                                :                                              

Grains & Hay                    :                                              

  Barley                        :  3,567.0                 3,113.0             

  Corn for Grain 2/             : 86,482.0                79,630.0             

  Corn for Silage               :                          5,605.0             

  Hay, All                      :                         59,755.0             

    Alfalfa                     :                         21,227.0             

    All Other                   :                         38,528.0             

  Oats                          :  3,404.0                 1,379.0             

  Proso Millet                  :    350.0                   293.0             

  Rice                          :  3,135.0                 3,103.0             

  Rye                           :  1,241.0                   252.0             

  Sorghum for Grain 2/          :  6,633.0                 5,520.0             

  Sorghum for Silage            :                            254.0             

  Wheat, All                    : 59,133.0                49,868.0             

    Winter                      : 43,311.0    37,097.0    34,485.0             

    Durum                       :  2,554.0                 2,428.0             

    Other Spring                : 13,268.0                12,955.0             

                                :                                              

Oilseeds                        :                                              

  Canola                        :    827.0                   814.0             

  Cottonseed 3/                 :                                              

  Flaxseed                      :    317.0                   314.0             

  Mustard Seed                  :     51.5                    49.8             

  Peanuts                       :  1,116.0                 1,081.0             

  Rapeseed                      :      1.0                     0.9             

  Safflower                     :    175.0                   165.5             

  Soybeans for Beans            : 77,451.0                76,407.0             

  Sunflower                     :  2,030.0                 1,953.5             

                                :                                               

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops   :                                              

  Cotton, All                   :  9,149.2                 7,690.5             

    Upland                      :  9,007.5                 7,552.0             

    Amer-Pima                   :    141.7                   138.5             

  Sugarbeets                    :  1,183.2                 1,145.3             

  Sugarcane                     :                            877.7             

  Tobacco                       :                            354.1             

                                :                                              

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils       :                                              

  Austrian Winter Peas          :     20.5                    13.7             

  Dry Edible Beans              :  1,537.5                 1,463.0             

  Dry Edible Peas               :    863.3                   837.9             

  Lentils                       :    415.0                   407.0             

  Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/         :                                              

                                :                                              

Potatoes & Misc.                :                                               

  Coffee (HI)                   :                              6.3             

  Hops                          :                             39.7             

  Peppermint Oil                :                             69.8             

  Potatoes, All                 :  1,069.8                 1,045.0             

    Winter                      :      9.0                     8.7             

    Spring                      :     79.2                    73.7             

    Summer                      :     44.5                    43.0             

    Fall                        :    937.1                   919.6             

  Spearmint Oil                 :                             20.5              

  Sweet Potatoes                :    109.6                    97.7             

  Taro (HI) 4/                  :                              0.4             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop  

    year.                                                                      

2/  Area planted for all purposes.                                             

3/  Acreage is not estimated.                                                  

4/  Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.                        

                                                                                

          Crop Summary:  Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010        

                               (Domestic Units) 1/                             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              :     :        Yield        :     Production     

             Crop             :Units:-------------------------------------------

                              :     :   2009   :   2010   :   2009   :   2010  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              :     :                      ----- 1,000 ----    

                              :     :                                           

Grains & Hay                  :     :                                          

  Barley                      :Bu   :   73.0                  227,323          

  Corn for Grain              :"    :  165.2               13,151,062           

  Corn for Silage             :Tons :   19.3                  108,209          

  Hay, All                    :"    :   2.47                  147,442          

    Alfalfa                   :"    :   3.35                   71,030          

    All Other                 :"    :   1.98                   76,412          

  Oats                        :Bu   :   67.5                   93,081          

  Proso Millet                :"    :   33.7                    9,865          

  Rice 2/                     :Cwt  :  7,085                  219,850          

  Rye                         :Bu   :   27.8                    6,993          

  Sorghum for Grain           :"    :   69.4                  382,983          

  Sorghum for Silage          :Tons :   14.5                    3,680          

  Wheat, All                  :Bu   :   44.4                2,216,171          

    Winter                    :"    :   44.2                1,522,718          

    Durum                     :"    :   44.9                  109,042          

    Other Spring              :"    :   45.1                  584,411          

                              :     :                                          

Oilseeds                      :     :                                           

  Canola                      :Lbs  :  1,811                1,474,130          

  Cottonseed 3/               :Tons :                         4,178.0          

  Flaxseed                    :Bu   :   23.6                    7,423          

  Mustard Seed                :Lbs  :    991                   49,364          

  Peanuts                     :"    :  3,412                3,688,350          

  Rapeseed                    :"    :  1,700                    1,530           

  Safflower                   :"    :  1,462                  241,970          

  Soybeans for Beans          :Bu   :   44.0                3,361,028          

  Sunflower                   :Lbs  :  1,554                3,036,460          

                              :     :                                          

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :     :                                          

  Cotton, All 2/              :Bales:    774                 12,401.3          

    Upland 2/                 :"    :    763                 12,011.0          

    Amer-Pima 2/              :"    :  1,353                    390.3          

  Sugarbeets                  :Tons :   25.8                   29,519          

  Sugarcane                   :"    :   34.4                   30,151          

  Tobacco                     :Lbs  :  2,325                  823,290          

                              :     :                                          

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils     :     :                                          

  Austrian Winter Peas 2/     :Cwt  :  1,328                      182          

  Dry Edible Beans 2/         :"    :  1,733                   25,360          

  Dry Edible Peas 2/          :"    :  2,045                   17,137          

  Lentils 2/                  :"    :  1,440                    5,859          

  Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/       :"    :                             874          

                              :     :                                           

Potatoes & Misc.              :     :                                          

  Coffee (HI)                 :Lbs  :  1,270                    8,000          

  Hops                        :"    :  2,383                 94,677.9           

  Peppermint Oil              :"    :     91                    6,379          

  Potatoes, All               :Cwt  :    413                  431,425          

    Winter                    :"    :    245                    2,132          

    Spring                    :"    :    289                   21,321          

    Summer                    :"    :    336                   14,469          

    Fall                      :"    :    428                  393,503          

  Spearmint Oil               :Lbs  :    132                    2,698          

  Sweet Potatoes              :Cwt  :    201                   19,647          

  Taro (HI) 3/                :Lbs  :                           4,000          

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop  

    year.                                                                       

2/  Yield in pounds.                                                           

3/  Yield is not estimated.                                                    

                                                                               

       Crop Summary:  Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010     

                                (Metric Units) 1/                              

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :     Area Planted      :    Area Harvested    

              Crop              :-----------------------------------------------

                                :   2009    :   2010    :   2009    :   2010   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :                   Hectares                   

                                :                                               

Grains & Hay                    :                                              

  Barley                        : 1,443,530               1,259,800            

  Corn for Grain 2/             :34,998,400              32,225,460            

  Corn for Silage               :                         2,268,290            

  Hay, All 3/                   :                        24,182,250            

    Alfalfa                     :                         8,590,350            

    All Other                   :                        15,591,900            

  Oats                          : 1,377,560                 558,070            

  Proso Millet                  :   141,640                 118,570             

  Rice                          : 1,268,700               1,255,750            

  Rye                           :   502,220                 101,980            

  Sorghum for Grain 2/          : 2,684,310               2,233,890            

  Sorghum for Silage            :                           102,790            

  Wheat, All 3/                 :23,930,530              20,181,080            

    Winter                      :17,527,530  15,012,780  13,955,730            

    Durum                       : 1,033,580                 982,590            

    Other Spring                : 5,369,430               5,242,760            

                                :                                              

Oilseeds                        :                                              

  Canola                        :   334,680                 329,420            

  Cottonseed 4/                 :                                              

  Flaxseed                      :   128,290                 127,070            

  Mustard Seed                  :    20,840                  20,150            

  Peanuts                       :   451,630                 437,470            

  Rapeseed                      :       400                     360            

  Safflower                     :    70,820                  66,980            

  Soybeans for Beans            :31,343,650              30,921,150            

  Sunflower                     :   821,520                 790,560            

                                :                                              

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops   :                                              

  Cotton, All 3/                : 3,702,590               3,112,270            

    Upland                      : 3,645,250               3,056,220            

    Amer-Pima                   :    57,340                  56,050            

  Sugarbeets                    :   478,830                 463,490             

  Sugarcane                     :                           355,200            

  Tobacco                       :                           143,320            

                                :                                              

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils       :                                              

  Austrian Winter Peas          :     8,300                   5,540            

  Dry Edible Beans              :   622,210                 592,060            

  Dry Edible Peas               :   349,370                 339,090            

  Lentils                       :   167,950                 164,710            

  Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/         :                                              

                                :                                              

Potatoes & Misc.                :                                              

  Coffee (HI)                   :                             2,550            

  Hops                          :                            16,080            

  Peppermint Oil                :                            28,250            

  Potatoes, All 3/              :   432,940                 422,900            

    Winter                      :     3,640                   3,520            

    Spring                      :    32,050                  29,830            

    Summer                      :    18,010                  17,400            

    Fall                        :   379,230                 372,150            

  Spearmint Oil                 :                             8,300            

  Sweet Potatoes                :    44,350                  39,540            

  Taro (HI) 5/                  :                               180            

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop   

    year.                                                                      

2/  Area planted for all purposes.                                             

3/  Total may not add due to rounding.                                         

4/  Acreage is not estimated.                                                  

5/  Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.                    

                                                                               

          Crop Summary:  Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010        

                                (Metric Units) 1/                              

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :         Yield         :      Production      

              Crop              :-----------------------------------------------

                                :   2009    :   2010    :   2009    :   2010   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                :                  Metric Tons                 

                                :                                              

Grains & Hay                    :                                               

  Barley                        :    3.93                  4,949,370           

  Corn for Grain                :   10.37                334,052,360           

  Corn for Silage               :   43.28                 98,165,550            

  Hay, All 2/                   :    5.53                133,757,130           

    Alfalfa                     :    7.50                 64,437,330           

    All Other                   :    4.45                 69,319,800           

  Oats                          :    2.42                  1,351,070           

  Proso Millet                  :    1.89                    223,730           

  Rice                          :    7.94                  9,972,230           

  Rye                           :    1.74                    177,630           

  Sorghum for Grain             :    4.35                  9,728,220           

  Sorghum for Silage            :   32.48                  3,338,440           

  Wheat, All 2/                 :    2.99                 60,314,290           

    Winter                      :    2.97                 41,441,590           

    Durum                       :    3.02                  2,967,640           

    Other Spring                :    3.03                 15,905,060           

                                :                                              

Oilseeds                        :                                              

  Canola                        :    2.03                    668,650           

  Cottonseed 3/                 :                          3,790,220           

  Flaxseed                      :    1.48                    188,550           

  Mustard Seed                  :    1.11                     22,390           

  Peanuts                       :    3.82                  1,673,010           

  Rapeseed                      :    1.91                        690           

  Safflower                     :    1.64                    109,760           

  Soybeans for Beans            :    2.96                 91,472,190           

  Sunflower                     :    1.74                  1,377,320           

                                :                                              

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops   :                                              

  Cotton, All 2/                :    0.87                  2,700,070           

    Upland                      :    0.86                  2,615,090           

    Amer-Pima                   :    1.52                     84,980           

  Sugarbeets                    :   57.78                 26,779,190            

  Sugarcane                     :   77.01                 27,352,530           

  Tobacco                       :    2.61                    373,440           

                                :                                              

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils       :                                              

  Austrian Winter Peas          :    1.49                      8,260           

  Dry Edible Beans              :    1.94                  1,150,310           

  Dry Edible Peas               :    2.29                    777,320           

  Lentils                       :    1.61                    265,760           

  Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/         :                             39,640           

                                :                                              

Potatoes & Misc.                :                                              

  Coffee (HI)                   :    1.42                      3,630           

  Hops                          :    2.67                     42,950           

  Peppermint Oil                :    0.10                      2,890           

  Potatoes, All 2/              :   46.27                 19,569,110           

    Winter                      :   27.47                     96,710           

    Spring                      :   32.43                    967,100           

    Summer                      :   37.71                    656,300           

    Fall                        :   47.96                 17,849,000           

  Spearmint Oil                 :    0.15                      1,220           

  Sweet Potatoes                :   22.54                    891,170           

  Taro (HI) 3/                  :                              1,810           

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop   

    year.                                                                      

2/  Production may not add due to rounding.                                    

3/  Yield is not estimated.                                                    

 All Orange Production Down 3 Percent from January               
                                                                               
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 7.94 million tons,
down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 14 percent from the
2008-09 final utilization.  The Florida all orange forecast, at 129 million
boxes (5.81 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and
down 21 percent from last season's final utilization.  Early, midseason, and
Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million
tons), down 4 percent from January 1 and 22 percent lower than last season. 
The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 63.0 million boxes (2.84 million
tons), is 5 percent below the previous forecast and down 19 percent from the
2008-09 crop.  Eight days of sub-freezing temperatures were recorded during
the period of January 5-13, 2010.  A freeze damage survey was conducted
January 26-27, 2010.  Additional assessments will be made through mid-March. 
Fruit size decreased for the early, midseason, and Navel varieties, while
fruit drop increased.  Fruit size has been below average for the Valencia
crop all season.
                                                                               
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2009-10 season is 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 3 percent
from the January 1 forecast and down 6 percent from last season's final yield
of 1.66 gallons per box.  The early-midseason portion is projected at
1.50 gallons per box, down 6 percent from last season's record yield of
1.60 gallons per box.  The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.65 gallons
per box, 6 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per
box.  All projections of yield assume the processing relationship this season
will be similar to those of the past several seasons.                                      

                                                        

            

                                        

         Fruits and Nuts Summary:  Production, United States, 2008-2010        

                               (Domestic Units) 1/                             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            :         :               Production               

            Crop            :  Units  :-----------------------------------------

                            :         :    2008     :    2009     :    2010    

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            :         :                  1,000                 

                            :         :                                        

Citrus 2/                   :         :                                        

  Grapefruit                :   Tons  :      1,548         1,331       1,160   

  Lemons                    :   "     :        619           950         855   

  Oranges                   :   "     :     10,076         9,198       7,936   

  Tangelos (FL)             :   "     :         68            52          41   

  Tangerines and Mandarins  :   "     :        527           443         511   

                            :         :                                        

Noncitrus                   :         :                                         

  Apples                    :   Lbs   :    9,609.3       9,953.6               

  Apricots                  :   Tons  :       81.6          68.3               

  Bananas (HI)              :   Lbs   :   17,400.0      15,400.0                

  Grapes                    :   Tons  :    7,319.3       7,067.6               

  Olives (CA)               :   "     :       66.8          42.8               

  Papayas (HI)              :   Lbs   :   33,500.0      31,300.0               

  Peaches                   :   Tons  :    1,135.3       1,105.7               

  Pears                     :   "     :      869.9         936.2               

  Prunes, Dried (CA)        :   "     :      129.0         157.0               

  Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)    :   "     :       15.5          18.8               

                            :         :                                        

Nuts & Misc.                :         :                                        

  Almonds (CA) (shelled)    :   Lbs   :  1,630,000     1,390,000               

  Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :   Tons  :       32.0          47.0               

  Pecans (in-shell)         :   Lbs   :    194,080       290,500               

  Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)   :   Tons  :      436.0         415.0               

  Maple Syrup               :   Gals  :      1,912         2,327               

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop  

    year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.                       

2/  Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.                         

                                                                               

         Fruits and Nuts Summary:  Production, United States, 2008-2010        

                                (Metric Units) 1/                               

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             :                    Production                   

             Crop            :--------------------------------------------------

                             :      2008      :      2009      :      2010     

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             :                   Metric tons                   

                             :                                                 

Citrus 2/                    :                                                 

  Grapefruit                 :   1,404,320        1,207,460        1,052,330   

  Lemons                     :     561,550          861,830          775,640   

  Oranges                    :   9,140,790        8,344,290        7,199,420   

  Tangelos (FL)              :      61,690           47,170           37,190   

  Tangerines and Mandarins   :     478,090          401,880          463,570   

                             :                                                 

Noncitrus                    :                                                 

  Apples                     :   4,358,710        4,514,880                    

  Apricots                   :      74,040           61,980                    

  Bananas (HI)               :       7,890            6,990                    

  Grapes                     :   6,639,920        6,411,660                    

  Olives (CA)                :      60,600           38,830                    

  Papayas (HI)               :      15,200           14,200                    

  Peaches                    :   1,029,940        1,003,090                     

  Pears                      :     789,110          849,320                    

  Prunes, Dried (CA)         :     117,030          142,430                    

  Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)     :      14,060           17,060                     

                             :                                                 

Nuts & Misc.                 :                                                 

  Almonds (CA) (shelled)     :     739,360          630,490                    

  Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)  :      29,030           42,640                    

  Pecans (in-shell)          :      88,030          131,770                    

  Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)    :     395,530          376,480                    

  Maple Syrup                :       9,560           11,630                    

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or 

    from previous reports.  Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop  

    year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.                       

2/  Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.                        

                                                                                

                            January Weather Summary                            

                                                                               

A protracted and severe cold outbreak struck Florida's peninsula during the

first half of the month, causing varying degrees of damage to citrus,

sugarcane, vegetables, and specialty crops.  Much of the significant damage

occurred on January 6-7 and 10-12, when temperatures dipped below 20 degrees

Fahrenheit in some northwestern citrus areas and fell to 32 degrees

Fahrenheit or below as far south as the winter vegetable production area near

Homestead, south of Miami.

                                                                                

Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal

across most of Florida's peninsula, and were also below normal across the

remainder of the Southeast.  Below-normal temperatures were also noted in

much of the western Corn Belt, where a very deep snow cover had become

established during December and persisted through January.  In contrast,

above-normal January temperatures dominated the Nation's northern tier and

much of the West.  Monthly readings averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit

above normal in northern New England and portions of the Northwest.  At some

Northwestern locations, it was the warmest January on record.

                                                                                

Relatively dry conditions accompanied the Northwestern warmth, consistent

with the maturation of a strong El Niño.  Meanwhile, a barrage of mid- to

late-month storms struck areas from California to the southern Plains, more

than doubling the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack and improving

water-supply prospects throughout the Nation's southwestern quadrant.

                                                                               

Across the Nation's midsection, short-term dryness on the central Plains

contrasted with wetter than normal conditions on the northern and southern

Plains.  On the northern Plains, snow helped to protect winter wheat from a

variety of weather extremes.  On the southern Plains, several episodes of

wintry precipitation caused travel disruptions but aided pastures and winter

grains.

                                                                               

Farther north and east, wintry weather added to already impressive snow

depths in the western Corn Belt.  In contrast, relatively dry conditions

prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt, another signal consistent with a strong,

mature El Niño.  Elsewhere, frequent precipitation maintained unfavorably

soggy conditions from Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida into the

southern Mid-Atlantic States.  The Southeastern wetness hampered fieldwork,

including final summer crop harvest efforts, and left standing water in some

winter wheat fields.  However, heavy rain largely bypassed southern Florida

and the central Gulf Coast region.

                                                                               

                          January Agricultural Summary                         

                                                                               

With the exception of the Great Lakes and New England, January temperatures

were below normal east of the Great Plains.  The mercury plunged to as many

as 6 degrees below normal in portions of the Southeast, with recordings

across much of Florida's peninsula falling to 8 degrees below normal.  In

contrast, the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the Rocky Mountains

experienced warmer than normal temperatures, with recordings reaching

8 degrees above average across the eastern halves of Oregon and Washington. 

Precipitation totals varied dramatically from one region to another.  Strong

winter storms delivered above average rain and snowfall to much of the

Southwest, Texas, and northern Great Plains where monthly accumulations

totaled as much as 400 percent of normal.  Elsewhere, large portions of the

Rocky Mountains, Corn Belt, Delta, and New England were abnormally dry. 

Isolated locations in Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming received as little as

2 percent of their normal monthly precipitation.

                                                                               

Producers in several States were busy cultivating, fertilizing, and

irrigating fields in preparation for spring planting.  Cotton harvest in

Texas and Arizona was complete by mid-month, while fruit, nut, and vegetable

growers harvested their crops throughout January.  An arctic cold front

delivered several nights of subfreezing temperatures to Florida early in the

month.  Freeze damage reduced strawberry production, and completely ruined

some snap bean, squash, and tomato fields.  Young sugarcane acreage was

burned back, while the tops of the older crop were frozen.  As a result,

producers have been rapidly harvesting their cane fields to help limit the

loss of sucrose content.

                                                                               

A wave of storm systems provided favorable soil moisture to developing small

grain crops in California, Oklahoma, and Texas.  Conversely, excessively wet

fields coupled with below average temperatures in Florida and Georgia

hampered seed germination, emergence, and crop growth in winter wheat.

                                                                                

                                 Crop Comments                                 

                                                                               

Sugarcane:  Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2009 is forecast at

30.2 million tons, of which 28.3 million tons will be utilized for sugar and

1.87 million tons for seed.  Total production for sugar and seed is down

fractionally from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from 2008. 

Sugarcane producers are expecting to harvest 877,700 acres for sugar and seed

in 2009, unchanged from January but up 1 percent from last year.  Yield for

sugar and seed is estimated at 34.4 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from the

previous forecast but up 2.6 tons from 2008.

                                                                               

Production in Florida is forecast at 14.1 million tons, down 1 percent from

January but up 6 percent from 2008.  Freezing temperatures mid-month

negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the Everglades region of Florida. 

As a result, yield is forecast at 36.1 tons per acre, a decrease of 0.3 ton

from the previous forecast.  Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were

carried forward from January.

                                                                               

Grapefruit:  The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.16 million

tons, down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 13 percent from the

2008-09 final utilization.  Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at

18.8 million boxes (799,000 tons), down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast

and 13 percent below last season.

                                                                               

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes

(225,000 tons), down 4 percent from January and down 20 percent from the

previous year.  The colored grapefruit forecast, at 13.5 million boxes

(574,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast and 11 percent

lower than last season.  The decrease is due to a slowing of the grapefruit

growth rate.  California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are

carried forward from the January 1 forecast.

                                                                                

Tangerines and Mandarins:  The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast

at 511,000 tons, down 6 percent from the January 1 forecast but 15 percent

above the 2008-09 crop.  Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million

boxes (190,000 tons), down 15 percent from the January 1 forecast but up

4 percent from the previous season.  Harvest of the later maturing Honey

variety is well underway and fruit size measurements are down.  Arizona and

California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward

from the January 1 forecast.

                                                                          

Tangelos:  Florida's tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons),

unchanged from the January 1 forecast but down 22 percent from last season's

final production.  If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo crop since

1962, when Florida had a damaging December freeze.

                                                                                

Papayas:  Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.65 million pounds

for December 2009, up 6 percent from November but 7 percent lower than a year

ago.  Total crop area for December is estimated at 1,975 acres, unchanged

from November but 18 percent below December 2008.  Harvested area totaled

1,320 acres, unchanged from the previous month but 10 percent lower than last

year.  Warm, dry weather in December aided fruit development and ripening.

                                                                                

Florida Citrus:  The citrus region experienced several nights of low

temperatures during the first half of January.  Weather stations reported

high temperatures in the 30's and 40's.  In an attempt to protect the fruit

and limit crop losses, grove caretakers irrigated heavily and accelerated

harvest.  Temperatures returned to a 70 to 80 degree range by mid-January. 

Harvesting of early, midseason, and Navel oranges neared completion while

Valencia harvest was just getting started.

                                                                               

All of the processing plants had opened and were mainly receiving early and

midseason oranges and grapefruit.  Primary grove activities were irrigating

and harvesting.

                                                                               

California Citrus:  During the first half of January picking of tangerines,

navel oranges, and grapefruit continued in the Central Valley.  The lemon

harvest continued in both the desert region and Central Valley.  Citrus fruit

harvest slowed significantly in mid-January due to storms moving through the

Central Valley and desert region.  The Valencia orange crop continued to

develop well.

                                                                               

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts:  Pruning and pre-emergent spraying

occurred in grape vineyards.  Dormant sprays to control pests were applied in

prune and peach orchards.  Pruning continued in nut orchards, while herbicide

applications to berms also took place in almond and walnut orchards.  During

the middle of January most maintenance work in vineyards and orchards was

suspended or slowed due to heavy rains and strong winds throughout central

and southern California.  Some fallen almond trees were reported.  Honeybees

were shipped in from other States and hives were placed in almond orchards

for the upcoming pollination season.

                                                                               

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

                                                                               

Survey Procedures:  The orange objective yield survey for the February 1

forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the

U.S. production.  Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the

season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with

ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys.  From

mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined.  In

September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage

surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to

develop the current forecast of production.  California and Texas conduct

grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April,

and July.  California conducts an objective measurement survey in September

for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

                                                                               

Estimating Procedures:  State level objective yield estimates for Florida

oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with

historical estimates.  Reports from growers and packers in California and

Texas were also used for setting estimates.  These three States submit their

analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). 

The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

February 1 forecast.

                                                                               

Revision Policy:  The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised.  A

new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. 

End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary

released in September.  The production estimates are based on all data

available at the end of the marketing season, including information from

marketing orders, shipments, and processor records.  Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

                                                                                

Reliability:  To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure

based on past performance, is computed.  The deviation between the February 1

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of

the final estimate.  The average of squared percentage deviations for the

latest 20-year period is computed.  The square root of the average becomes

statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."  Probability statements can be

made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's

forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

                                                                               

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is

3.8 percent.  However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3

freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is

3.2 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange

production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more

than 3.8 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons.  Chances are 9

out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed

6.6 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

                                                                               

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during

the past 20 years have averaged 335,000 tons (309,000 tons excluding abnormal

seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 655,000 tons (18,000 tons to

638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons).  The February 1 forecast for

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below

6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons).  The difference does

not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or

overstate final production.

                                    

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

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