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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report 9/11/09

Sep 11, 2009





USDA Report

Crop
Production
                                                                               
National Agricultural Statistics Service
                                                                               

                                                                               
               Corn Production Up 2 Percent from August Forecast               
                        Soybean Production Up 1 Percent                        
                         Cotton Production Up 2 Percent                        
                                                                               
Corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last
month and 7 percent higher than 2008.  Based on conditions as of September 1,
yields are expected to average 161.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from
August and 8.0 bushels above last year.  If realized, this will be the
highest yield on record and production will be the second largest, behind
2007.  Yield forecasts increased from last month across the western Corn Belt
and the northern half of the Great Plains as mild temperatures and adequate
soil moisture supplies provided favorable growing conditions.  Yield
prospects were unchanged in the eastern Corn Belt where dry conditions during
August depleted soil moisture supplies.
                                                                               
Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.25 billion bushels, up
1 percent from the August forecast and up 10 percent from last year.  Based
on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.3 bushels per
acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008.  If
realized, this will be the third highest yield on record.  Compared with last
month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all States except Indiana,
where the yield is expected to be down 2 bushels.  The largest increases in
yield from the August forecast are expected in Alabama and Maryland, up 5 and
6 bushels, respectively.  If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama,
Georgia, and Mississippi will be a record high and the forecasted yield in
Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio will tie the previous record high.  Area
for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.8 million acres, up slightly from
June and up 3 percent from 2008.
                                                                               
All Cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million 480-pound bales, up
2 percent from last month and up 5 percent from last year.  Upland cotton
production is forecast at 13.1 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from
last month and up 6 percent from last year.  Producers in the Southeast and
Delta regions are expecting increased yields from last month.  Upland growers
in Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee are expecting
record high yields.  The American-Pima production forecast, at 367,000 bales,
was carried forward from last month.
                                                                               
  
Soybeans:  Area for harvest is forecast at 76.8 million acres, unchanged from
last month but up 3 percent from 2008.  Harvested area, if realized, will be
the largest on record.
                                                                               
The September objective yield data for the combined eleven major
soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,
Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate
a slightly lower pod count compared with last year, as late planting this
spring led to slower than normal development.  Compared with final counts for
2008, pod counts are down in six States, with decreases of more than 140 pods
per 18 square feet in Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota.  The largest
increase from 2008's final pod count is expected in Ohio, up 230 pods per
18 square feet.
                                                                               
After beginning the month 18 points behind the normal pace for setting pods,
the crop developed rapidly during August and progress had nearly returned to
normal by the end of the month.  As of August 30, ninety-three percent was at
or beyond the pod-setting stage, on pace with last year but 3 points behind
normal.  The only States where pod-setting was not within 5 points of the
normal pace were Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, where development was
between 7 and 8 points behind the 5-year average.
                                                                               
As of August 30, sixty-nine percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in
good to excellent condition, 12 percentage points above the same week in
2008.  Crop conditions declined during August in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,
Kentucky, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but increased across the rest of the
major growing region.  Increases of more than 7 points in percent rated good
to excellent occurred in Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Wisconsin
as timely rains during the month improved the crop condition.  If realized,
the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi will be a record
high and the forecasted yield in Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio will tie
the previous record high.


   Crop Comments                                 
                                                                               
Corn:  Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at
80.0 million acres, unchanged from August but up 2 percent from last year.
                                                                               
As of August 30, sixty-nine percent of the crop was rated in good to
excellent condition in the 18 major corn-producing States, up 1 percentage
point from last month and 8 points above last year.  Condition ratings
declined from last month in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley.  However,
despite the decreases, condition ratings were well above the previous year.
                                                                               
The September 1 corn objective yield data indicate a record high number of
stalks and ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield States
(Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South
Dakota, and Wisconsin).  All objective yield States, except Missouri and
Wisconsin, recorded record high ear counts.
                                                                               
Cool weather across the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest continued to
slow crop development during much of August.  Meanwhile the rest of the
Midwest experienced generally mild temperatures and adequate soil moisture
supplies which favored corn growth and development.  Overall, corn
development remained behind normal due to the cool, early season temperatures
and delayed planting.  On August 23, fifty-seven percent of the corn acreage
was at or beyond the dough stage, 22 points behind the 5-year average. 
Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota were each over 30 points
behind their average pace while Illinois was 27 points behind.
                                                                               
By August 30, thirty-two percent of the corn acreage was at or beyond the
dent stage compared with the 5-year average of 60 percent.  All States were
behind average except Colorado and North Carolina.

                                                                               
This report was approved on September 11, 2009.
    Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data                     
                                                                               
The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield
surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2009.  Randomly selected plots in
corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to
obtain specific counts and measurements.  Data in these tables are rounded
actual field counts from this survey.
                                                                               
                Corn for Grain:  Plant Population per Acre,               
                         Selected States, 2005-2009                       
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :  Month  :  2005   :  2006   :  2007   :  2008   :  2009  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :         :                     Number                     
               :         :                                                
IL             :  Sep    : 28,000    28,050    28,000    29,150    29,650 
               :  Oct    : 28,050    28,000    28,100    29,000           
               :  Nov    : 28,000    28,000    28,100    28,950           
               :  Final  : 28,000    28,000    28,100    28,900           
               :         :                                                
IN             :  Sep    : 25,300    26,450    27,350    28,500    28,350 
               :  Oct    : 25,200    26,350    27,350    28,350           
               :  Nov    : 25,200    26,350    27,350    28,350           
               :  Final  : 25,200    26,350    27,350    28,350           
               :         :                                                
IA             :  Sep    : 28,050    28,600    29,100    29,300    29,500 
               :  Oct    : 27,950    28,600    29,100    29,250           
               :  Nov    : 28,000    28,600    29,100    29,250           
               :  Final  : 28,000    28,600    29,100    29,250           
               :         :                                                
KS             :  Sep    : 21,600    21,800    20,600    20,250    22,650 
               :  Oct    : 21,500    21,750    20,500    20,950           
               :  Nov    : 21,400    21,750    20,500    20,950           
               :  Final  : 21,400    21,750    20,500    20,950           
               :         :                                                
MN             :  Sep    : 28,400    28,850    29,850    30,150    30,800 
               :  Oct    : 28,300    28,900    29,800    30,100           
               :  Nov    : 28,400    28,900    29,750    30,150           
               :  Final  : 28,450    28,900    29,750    30,050           
               :         :                                                
MO             :  Sep    : 24,100    24,350    24,200    25,700    25,700 
               :  Oct    : 24,050    24,350    24,300    25,700           
               :  Nov    : 24,050    24,350    24,300    25,700           
               :  Final  : 24,050    24,350    24,300    25,700           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 23,900    24,750    25,000    24,500    25,700 
  All          :  Oct    : 23,700    24,550    25,000    24,300           
               :  Nov    : 23,700    24,600    25,000    24,250           
               :  Final  : 23,700    24,450    25,000    24,250           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 26,700    27,400    27,250    27,250    28,250 
  Irrigated    :  Oct    : 26,650    27,200    27,250    27,350           
               :  Nov    : 26,650    27,200    27,200    27,250           
               :  Final  : 26,650    27,200    27,200    27,250           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 20,400    20,650    21,350    20,000    21,750 
  Non-Irrigated:  Oct    : 20,000    20,450    21,300    19,900           
               :  Nov    : 20,000    20,550    21,350    19,900           
               :  Final  : 20,000    20,250    21,350    19,900           
               :         :                                                
OH             :  Sep    : 25,650    26,250    26,900    27,750    28,300 
               :  Oct    : 25,600    26,250    26,700    27,800           
               :  Nov    : 25,600    26,200    26,600    27,800           
               :  Final  : 25,600    26,200    26,600    27,800           
               :         :                                                
SD             :  Sep    : 23,450    23,900    23,400    22,950    24,300 
               :  Oct    : 23,650    24,000    23,100    23,100           
               :  Nov    : 23,700    24,000    23,150    23,100           
               :  Final  : 23,700    24,000    23,150    23,100           
               :         :                                                
WI             :  Sep    : 27,400    27,250    28,800    28,800    28,150 
               :  Oct    : 27,100    27,100    28,700    28,500           
               :  Nov    : 27,050    27,450    28,800    28,250           
               :  Final  : 27,050    27,450    28,800    28,250           
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               
                 Corn for Grain:  Number of Ears per Acre,                
                         Selected States, 2005-2009                       
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :  Month  :  2005   :  2006   :  2007   :  2008   :  2009  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :         :                     Number                     
               :         :                                                
IL             :  Sep    : 26,950    27,600    27,750    28,600    29,150 
               :  Oct    : 26,850    27,450    27,750    28,500           
               :  Nov    : 26,850    27,400    27,750    28,400           
               :  Final  : 26,850    27,400    27,750    28,350           
               :         :                                                
IN             :  Sep    : 24,850    25,850    26,950    27,950    27,950 
               :  Oct    : 24,600    25,750    26,800    27,700           
               :  Nov    : 24,650    25,700    26,800    27,700           
               :  Final  : 24,650    25,750    26,800    27,700           
               :         :                                                
IA             :  Sep    : 27,150    27,350    28,500    28,600    29,250 
               :  Oct    : 27,100    27,350    28,400    28,600           
               :  Nov    : 27,100    27,350    28,450    28,600           
               :  Final  : 27,100    27,350    28,400    28,600           
               :         :                                                
KS             :  Sep    : 21,100    20,850    20,900    19,850    22,750 
               :  Oct    : 21,000    20,750    20,800    20,600           
               :  Nov    : 20,900    20,750    20,800    20,650           
               :  Final  : 20,900    20,750    20,800    20,650           
               :         :                                                
MN             :  Sep    : 28,000    28,050    28,850    29,900    30,250 
               :  Oct    : 27,900    28,250    28,600    29,350           
               :  Nov    : 28,050    28,250    28,600    29,450           
               :  Final  : 28,050    28,250    28,600    29,400           
               :         :                                                
MO             :  Sep    : 22,550    23,850    23,950    25,050    24,800 
               :  Oct    : 22,600    23,800    23,950    25,000           
               :  Nov    : 22,600    23,800    23,950    24,900           
               :  Final  : 22,600    23,800    23,950    24,900           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 23,250    23,850    24,850    24,050    25,650 
  All          :  Oct    : 22,800    23,700    24,750    23,950           
               :  Nov    : 22,800    23,700    24,750    23,900           
               :  Final  : 22,800    23,550    24,750    23,900           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 26,250    26,750    27,200    26,800    27,900 
  Irrigated    :  Oct    : 25,900    26,600    27,000    27,000           
               :  Nov    : 25,900    26,600    27,000    26,900           
               :  Final  : 25,900    26,650    27,000    26,900           
               :         :                                                
NE             :  Sep    : 19,550    19,400    21,100    19,550    22,100 
  Non-Irrigated:  Oct    : 18,950    19,150    21,050    19,500           
               :  Nov    : 18,900    19,200    21,100    19,550           
               :  Final  : 18,900    18,800    21,100    19,550           
               :         :                                                
OH             :  Sep    : 24,800    25,200    26,350    26,950    27,700 
               :  Oct    : 24,700    25,350    26,000    27,400           
               :  Nov    : 24,650    25,450    25,950    27,250           
               :  Final  : 24,650    25,450    25,950    27,250           
               :         :                                                
SD             :  Sep    : 23,150    22,050    23,250    24,150    26,150 
               :  Oct    : 23,100    21,900    22,700    23,900           
               :  Nov    : 23,050    21,700    22,700    23,800           
               :  Final  : 23,050    21,700    22,700    23,800           
               :         :                                                
WI             :  Sep    : 26,550    26,750    27,800    27,750    27,500 
               :  Oct    : 26,350    26,850    27,700    28,300           
               :  Nov    : 26,350    27,200    27,850    27,950           
               :  Final  : 26,350    27,200    27,850    27,900           
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                               
                         Soybeans: Objective Yield Data                        
                                                                               
The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield
surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2009.  Randomly selected plots
in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements.  Data in this table are actual field counts
from this survey.
                                                                               
               Soybeans:  Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,              
                         Selected States, 2005-2009                        
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  State : Month :   2005    :   2006    :   2007    :   2008    :   2009   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :       :                          Number                          
        :       :                                                          
AR 1/   : Sep   :                                                          
        : Oct   :   1,796       1,645       1,621       1,569              
        : Nov   :   1,823       1,655       1,665       1,723              
        : Final :   1,824       1,667       1,690       1,715              
        :       :                                                          
IL      : Sep   :   1,824       1,860       1,800       1,621       1,610  
        : Oct   :   1,820       1,890       1,796       1,893              
        : Nov   :   1,858       1,923       1,818       1,801              
        : Final :   1,858       1,923       1,831       1,829              
        :       :                                                          
IN      : Sep   :   1,747       1,764       1,667       1,608       1,516  
        : Oct   :   1,790       1,893       1,660       1,577              
        : Nov   :   1,899       1,909       1,628       1,648              
        : Final :   1,899       1,909       1,641       1,659              
        :       :                                                          
IA      : Sep   :   1,796       1,688       1,787       1,758       1,858  
        : Oct   :   1,935       1,758       1,917       1,732              
        : Nov   :   1,968       1,760       1,933       1,770              
        : Final :   1,970       1,760       1,932       1,775              
        :       :                                                          
KS      : Sep   :   1,383       1,466       1,605       1,346       1,627  
        : Oct   :   1,431       1,509       1,524       1,487              
        : Nov   :   1,547       1,581       1,608       1,581              
        : Final :   1,546       1,581       1,609       1,629              
        :       :                                                          
MN      : Sep   :   1,597       1,500       1,558       1,466       1,456  
        : Oct   :   1,598       1,586       1,589       1,493              
        : Nov   :   1,640       1,568       1,588       1,470              
        : Final :   1,640       1,568       1,588       1,472              
        :       :                                                          
MO      : Sep   :   1,580       1,673       1,566       1,538       1,856  
        : Oct   :   1,585       1,746       1,579       1,473              
        : Nov   :   1,679       1,738       1,685       1,673              
        : Final :   1,652       1,735       1,697       1,690              
        :       :                                                          
NE      : Sep   :   1,778       1,699       1,876       1,692       1,793  
        : Oct   :   1,903       1,801       2,042       1,766              
        : Nov   :   1,920       1,784       2,088       1,857              
        : Final :   1,920       1,766       2,084       1,857              
        :       :                                                          
ND      : Sep   :   1,386       1,127       1,323       1,261       1,208  
        : Oct   :   1,471       1,241       1,445       1,261              
        : Nov   :   1,496       1,260       1,500       1,405              
        : Final :   1,496       1,260       1,497       1,405              
        :       :                                                          
OH      : Sep   :   1,990       1,868       1,892       1,942       1,846  
        : Oct   :   1,890       1,895       1,850       1,755              
        : Nov   :   1,974       1,835       1,909       1,618              
        : Final :   1,981       1,866       1,909       1,616              
        :       :                                                          
SD      : Sep   :   1,572       1,255       1,476       1,425       1,513  
        : Oct   :   1,617       1,345       1,492       1,465              
        : Nov   :   1,605       1,316       1,510       1,492              
        : Final :   1,556       1,312       1,510       1,492

                  August Weather Summary                            
                                                                               
A summer-long cool spell continued through the end of August across the
Plains and the Midwest, providing an absence of heat stress for crops such as
corn, soybeans, and spring wheat, but perpetuating a slow pace of crop
development.  August temperatures averaged as many as 4 to 6 degrees
Fahrenheit below normal across the northern and central Plains and the upper
Midwest.  In contrast, temperatures rebounded to near- to above-normal levels
in the East, while extreme heat persisted across drought-stricken southern
Texas.  Hot weather also continued in the Desert Southwest, but temperatures
fell slightly from July's unseasonably warm levels in the Pacific Northwest.
                                                                               
Across the Plains and Midwest, abundant August showers maintained generally
favorable soil moisture levels for late-developing summer crops.  Farther
south and east, historic drought conditions continued to grip southern Texas,
while pockets of unfavorable dryness developed in the middle and southern
Atlantic Coastal Plain.  Across the remainder of the South, mild, wet weather
prevented significant stress on pastures and immature summer crops.
                                                                               
Elsewhere, drier-than-normal weather in most areas from the Rockies westward
contrasted with wet conditions across the interior Northwest.  Especially dry
conditions were noted in the Southwest, where rainfall associated with the
summer rainy season (monsoon) was significantly below normal.  In California,
typical late-summer dryness and the effects of a 3-year drought contributed
to an increase in wildfire activity.
                                                                               
                          August Agricultural Summary                          
                                                                               
Blooming of this year's soybean crop advanced to 76 percent complete by
August 2, on par with last year but 10 points behind the 5-year average while
pod set had occurred in 36 percent of soybean fields, 18 points behind the
average.  Blooming neared completion as warmer mid-month temperatures and
timely rainfall kept pod set active across much of the growing region.  On
August 16, ninety-three percent of the crop was blooming, 3 points behind the
average, with pods set on 72 percent, 13 points behind the average.  Despite
below average temperatures toward the end of the month, pod set remained
active across the major soybean-producing regions of the country, with
93 percent of the acreage at or beyond the stage by August 30.  Leaf drop had
occurred on 3 percent of the Nation's acreage by August 30, one point behind
last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average, and was most advanced in
the Delta.  Overall, 69 percent of the soybean crop was rated in good to
excellent condition on August 30, a slight improvement from the beginning of
the month and 12 points better than last year.

August storm systems brought above average rainfall to numerous locations
across the country, improving soil moisture levels in areas of the Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while adding to already surplus soil moisture
in the Corn Belt.  Most notably, rainfall accumulations in eastern Iowa and
northern Missouri totaled between 11 and 12 inches, or up to 400 percent of
normal.  Conversely, abnormally dry conditions persisted along much of the
Pacific Coast, in the Four Corners region, and across most of Texas.  Cooler
temperatures lingered in the Great Plains, Great Lakes, Corn Belt, most of
the Delta and parts of the Southeast, slowing summer crop development.  In
contrast, above average temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Northwest,
the Southwest, Texas, and along the Atlantic Coast.
                                                                               
Cooler temperatures during August kept phenological development of the 2009
corn crop behind normal throughout the month.  On August 2, seventy-six
percent of the crop was at or beyond the silking stage, 13 points, or 1 week,
behind the 5-year average while 14 percent of the crop had reached the dough
stage, 15 points behind normal.  Denting was underway by August 9, with
5 percent of the Nation's corn acreage reported at or beyond the stage,
1 point behind last year and 9 points behind the average.  By mid-month,
silking was nearly complete with progress most active in the Dakotas and
Michigan.  On August 23, development to the dough stage was over 3 weeks
behind normal in North Dakota, 2 weeks behind normal in Illinois, and over
1 week behind normal in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and South
Dakota.  By August 30, seventy-five percent of the crop was at or beyond the
dough stage, 13 points behind the 5-year average.  Denting was evident in
32 percent of the crop, 10 points behind last year and 28 points behind the
average, with progress behind normal in all estimating States except Colorado
and North Carolina.  Acreage mature, at 5 percent, was 1 point behind last
year and 8 points behind the average.  Overall, the condition of the corn
crop improved slightly during August, with 69 percent rated good to excellent
on August 30, compared with 68 percent on August 2 and 61 percent last year.

Producers continued to harvest winter wheat at a slower than normal pace well
into August.  On August 2, eighty-five percent of the crop was harvested
compared with 90 percent for the 5-year average.  Mid-month harvest remained
most active in the Pacific Northwest and Montana, while harvest was complete
or nearly complete across the rest of the growing region.  By August 23,
ninety-seven percent of the Nation's crop was harvested, on par with last
year but 1 point behind the average.
                                                                               
Heading of the 2009 spring wheat crop was nearly complete by August 2,
slightly behind last year and the 5-year average.  Harvest was underway but
behind in all estimating States at the start of the month, with 3 percent of
the crop harvested by August 2, two points behind last year and 12 points
behind the average.  Sunny skies prevailed mid-month and provided nearly a
full week of days suitable for fieldwork in the Pacific Northwest where the
harvest pace was most active.  By August 30, producers had harvested
38 percent of their crop.  However, significant delays remained in all
estimating States, with the biggest lag evident in North Dakota, the largest
spring wheat-producing State, where harvest was over 3 weeks behind normal. 
Overall, the condition of the spring wheat crop improved during the month,
with 75 percent of the crop rated good to excellent on August 30.
                                                                               
Rice acreage at or beyond the heading stage reached 41 percent by August 2,
compared with 39 percent last year and 53 percent for the 5-year average. 
Mid-month head development was most active in Arkansas, California,
Mississippi, and Missouri while heading was nearly complete in Louisiana and
Texas.  Producers had harvested 8 percent of the Nation's crop by August 16,
on par with last year but 2 points behind the average.  Harvest activity
remained limited to Louisiana and Texas until the week ending August 30 when
producers in Arkansas and Mississippi began harvesting their crop.  Overall,
66 percent of the rice crop was rated in good to excellent condition on
August 30, a 4 point improvement from ratings on August 2 but 4 points below
last year.
                                                                               

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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

Anonymous
I'd like to know where all this corn is. I live in Iowa and the Fairbank ethanol plant is paying 8 cents over the Dec. for cash and 20 cent under for fall. I know 3 bucks/bushel really kind of sucks but when was the last time the Oct. delivery basis was 20 cents under in anticipation of a crop the size they say is coming ??
3:03 PM Sep 11th
 

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