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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report 3/31/11

Mar 31, 2011

 

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Report 3/31/11

Corn Stocks Down 15 Percent from March 2010

Soybean Stocks Down 2 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 5 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 3.38 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 26 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.14 billion bushels are down slightly from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 3.53 billion bushels, compared with 3.21 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 1.25 billion bushels, down 2 percent from March 1, 2010. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 505 million bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 744 million bushels, are up 13 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2010 - February 2011 quarter totaled 1.03 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 1.42 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 288 million bushels, down 17 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.14 billion bushels, are up 13 percent from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 508 million bushels, up 20 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 56.5 million bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 35.7 million bushels, are up 4 percent from March 31, 2010. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.8 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance of 11.8 million bushels is down 42 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 138 million bushels, down 12 percent from March 1, 2010. On-farm stocks are estimated at 57.7 million bushels, 14 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 80.3 million bushels, are 11 percent below March 2010. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance totaled 42.4 million bushels, 14 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 86.3 million bushels, 12 percent below the stocks on March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks on hand, 27.0 million bushels are stored on farms, down 13 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 59.4 million bushels, down 11 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during December 2010 - February 2011 totaled 14.7 million bushels, up 16 percent from the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 171 million bushels, down 3 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 13.0 million bushels, are down 45 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 158 million bushels, are up 4 percent from a year earlier. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance from all positions is 66.8 million bushels, down 11 percent from the same period last year.

Sunflower stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 867 million pounds, down 29 percent from March 1, 2010. All stocks stored on farms totaled 330 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 537 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 663 million pounds; of this total, 257 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 406 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 204 million pounds, with 73.2 million pounds stored on the farm and 130 million pounds stored off the farm.

Corn Planted Acreage Up 5 Percent from 2010 Soybean Acreage Down 1 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Up 8 Percent

All Cotton Acreage Up 15 Percent

Corn growers intend to plant 92.2 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2011, up 5 percent from last year and 7 percent higher than in 2009. If realized, this will be the second highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in 2007.

Acreage increases of 250,000 or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota. The largest decrease is expected in Texas, down 150,000 acres.

Soybean planted area for 2011 is estimated at 76.6 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. If realized, the United States planted area will be the third largest on record. Compared with last year, planted acreage declines of 100,000 acres or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Ohio. If realized, the planted area in New York and North Dakota will be the largest on record.

All wheat planted area is estimated at 58.0 million acres, up 8 percent from last year. The 2011 winter wheat planted area, at 41.2 million acres, is 10 percent above last year and up 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 29.4 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.2 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.7 million are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2011 is estimated at 14.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 2010. Of this total, about 13.6 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2011 is estimated at 2.37 million acres, down 8 percent from 2010.

All cotton plantings for 2011 are expected to total 12.6 million acres, 15 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 12.3 million acres, up 14 percent from 2010. American Pima acreage is expected to total 252,500 acres, up 24 percent from 2010. Cotton acreage increases are expected in every State. The largest increase, at 548,000 acres, is expected in Texas.

Acreage increases of more than 100,000 acres are expected in North Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi.

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Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189


Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where
projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk.
In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied
promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will
profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such
promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication
of future performance

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