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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report for 9/30/13

Sep 30, 2013

 

 

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Corn Stocks Down 17 Percent from September 2012
Soybean Stocks Down 17 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 12 Percent

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 824 million bushels, down 17 percent from 
September 1, 2012. Of the total stocks, 275 million bushels are stored on farms, down 12 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 549 million bushels, are down 19 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 1.94 billion bushels, compared with 2.16 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 141 million bushels, down 17 percent from September 1, 2012. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 39.6 million bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 101 million bushels, are down 23 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2013 totaled 294 million bushels, down 41 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2012 soybean production is revised to 3.03 billion bushels, up 18.6 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged, but harvested area is revised up 60,000 acres to 76.2 million acres. The 2012 yield, at 39.8 bushels per acre, is up 0.2 bushel from the previous estimate. A table with 2012 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 17 of this report.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 1.85 billion bushels, down 12 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 547 million bushels, down 5 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.31 billion bushels, are down 15 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 991 million bushels, up 10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 66.8 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 42.4 million bushels, are down 3 percent from September 1, 2012. Off-farm stocks totaled 24.4 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance of 17.8 million bushels is down 55 percent from the same period a year earlier.2 Grain Stocks (September 2013)

Barley stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 196 million bushels, down slightly from September 1, 2012. On-farm stocks are estimated at 106 million bushels, 5 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 90.8 million bushels, are 7 percent above September 2012. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 99.0 million bushels, 19 percent above the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 63.4 million bushels, 25 percent below the stocks on 
September 1, 2012. Of the total stocks on hand, 37.0 million bushels are stored on farms, 9 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 26.4 million bushels, 48 percent below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2013 totaled 38.9 million bushels, compared with 34.0 million bushels during the same period a year ago.

Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 15.0 million bushels, down 34 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 602,000 bushels, are down 48 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 14.4 million bushels, are down 34 percent from September 1, 2012. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance from all positions is 26.1 million bushels, down 27 percent from the same period a year ago.

Old crop sunflower stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 339 million pounds, up 78 percent from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms totaled 45.1 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 294 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 276 million pounds; of this total, 37.0 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 239 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 63.2 million pounds, with 8.10 million pounds stored on the farm and 55.1 million pounds stored off the farm.


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Disclaimer:    No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are tempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

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