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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report 12/10/13

Dec 10, 2013

 WASDE Report 12/10/13 

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OILSEEDS:  Total U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.44 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed.  Although soybean production remains unchanged, 2013/14 supplies are raised 10 million bushels on stronger-than-expected early season soybean imports.  Soybean exports are increased 25 million bushels to 1.475 billion reflecting record commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November.  Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.690 billion as strong foreign demand for soybean meal, led by the European Union and Southeast Asia, more than offsets a reduction in domestic soybean meal use.  Soybean oil supplies are increased in line with higher crush.  With total use unchanged, soybean oil stocks are increased 55 million pounds to 1.69 billion.  Although total use is unchanged, soybean oil used for methyl ester is projected lower reflecting expanded production of non-ester based renewable diesel.  Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 150 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and soybean meal are projected higher this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2013/14 is projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel, up 35 cents on both ends of the range.  The soybean meal price is projected at $400 to $440 per short ton, up 25 dollars on both ends of the range.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 38 to 42 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 502.3 million tons, up 2.9 million tons from last month.  Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and palm kernel only partly offset by reductions in cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and copra.  Global soybean production is projected at a record 284.9 million tons, up 1.4 million due to increases for Argentina and Canada.  Argentina production is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 1.0 million due to higher projected area.  Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 70.0 million tons, up 2.1 million due to gains for Canada and Australia. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 1.9 million tons to 18.0 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.  Favorable conditions throughout the growing season resulted in record rapeseed yields this year.  Other changes this month include lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 128.3 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month.  Increased soybean exports from the United States and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.8 million tons, up 2.1 million as lower soybean stocks in the United States are more than offset by increased soybean stocks in Argentina, Canada, the European Union, and Russia, and higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 10 million bushels this month with higher projected imports.  Record production and higher exports for Canada are expected to add to wheat supplies in the United States.  Imports are raised 5 million bushels each for Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat.  Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged, but minor adjustments are made by class with SRW wheat exports raised 5 million bushels and HRS wheat exports lowered an offsetting amount.  Projected ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels.  The 2013/14 projected season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel as near record world supplies and increased export competition reduce price prospects for U.S. wheat.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 5.3 million tons to 887.3 million.  This is up 32.1 million tons from last year, but 9.0 million tons below the record supplies of 2011/12.  Global 2013/14 production is raised 5.0 million tons with most of the increase for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada estimate which put production at a record 37.5 million tons.  This is up 4.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 5.4 million tons higher than the previous record in 1990/91 as excellent summer weather and an extended growing season boosted yields to record levels.  Production is also raised for Australia, up 1.0 million tons to 26.5 million, slightly above the recent forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.  Production is also raised 0.4 million tons for 2012/13 reflecting recent revisions to last year’s crop by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.  Partly offsetting this month’s 2013/14 increases is a small reduction for the European Union as the latest statistical reports lower output for Denmark, but raise output slightly for the Netherlands and France.

Global wheat trade for 2013/14 is raised this month with larger available supplies in key exporter countries and stronger demand expected for several importing countries.  Exports are raised 1.5 million tons for Canada, 1.0 million tons for the European Union, 0.5 million tons for Australia, and 0.2 million for Turkey.  Imports are raised for Egypt, Bangladesh, Mexico, Azerbaijan, South Korea, Syria, and Turkey.  Most of the increase in exportable supplies is from higher production in Canada and Australia; however, in the European Union higher corn imports and feeding are expected to free up wheat to support the strong ongoing pace of sales and shipments.  Wheat feeding is increased for Canada, Egypt, and South Korea.  Wheat food use is raised for Bangladesh and Syria.  Global wheat ending stocks are projected 4.3 million tons higher mostly on increases for Canada and Australia.

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month with a 5-million-bushel increase projected for corn imports.  With a record crop now estimated for Canada, additional quantities of Canadian corn are expected to find their way into the U.S. market.  U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected higher with increases for food, seed, and industrial use and for exports.  Corn used in ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of weekly ethanol production since mid-October.  Exports are also projected 50 million bushels higher based on the pace of sales to date and higher expected global consumption.  Projected U.S. ending stocks are lowered 95 million bushels. 

The 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.05 to $4.75 per bushel based on prices reported to date.  Average prices received by farmers, however, are expected to continue to be reported above prevailing cash bids well into early 2014 as some sales will reflect the higher forward prices available before harvesting.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 3.6 million tons higher.  At 1,420.5 million tons, supplies are up 122.8 million from 2012/13 and 103.1 million above the previous record in 2011/12.  Corn accounts for more than 80 percent of the increase over this period with 2013/14 world corn production up 101.4 million tons from last year.  Global corn output for 2013/14 is raised this month with Canada and Ukraine increased 1.1 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively.  Partly offsetting are 0.4-million-ton reductions for both the European Union and Kenya.  World barley and oats production are also raised, up 1.7 million tons and 0.8 million tons, respectively.  Barley production is raised 1.2 million tons for Australia and 0.8 million tons for Canada.  Partly offsetting are small reductions for Iran and the European Union.  Oats production is raised 0.6 million tons for Canada with small increases also for the European Union and Australia.  World sorghum production is lowered 0.4 million tons with smaller crops projected for India and Australia.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.3 million tons with half of the increase from higher foreign corn consumption.  Corn feeding is raised for Canada, the European Union, and Ukraine.  Foreign barley and oats consumption are also raised with increased barley feeding in Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Canada, and increased oats feeding in Canada.  Higher coarse grain production in Canada, Australia, and Ukraine support increased use for these countries and higher imports allow for the increases for the European Union and Saudi Arabia.   Global corn exports are raised 1.8 million tons with increases for the United States and Canada.  Global barley exports are raised 0.9 million tons with increases for Australia, Ukraine, and Canada.  World corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the U.S. reduction is only partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine. 


SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013/14 is decreased 217,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to lower imports from Mexico.  Total use is increased, as all of the forfeited sugar held by the Commodity Credit Corporation is expected to be sold for non-human use.  However, domestic food use is lowered based on recent weaker-than-expected deliveries.  Ending stocks are lowered 423,000 tons from last month.

For Mexico, USDA is adopting recent projections by the government of Mexico for increased production and imports, compared with last month’s WASDE projections.  Domestic consumption is decreased also to match government projections.  However, USDA projects stocks nearly unchanged from last month.  Mexico projects higher exports to non-U.S. markets which more than offsets lower exports to U.S. markets.

For Mexico, USDA is adopting recent projections by the government of Mexico for increased production and imports, compared with last month’s WASDE projections.  Domestic consumption is decreased also to match government projections.  However, USDA projects stocks nearly unchanged from last month.  Mexico projects higher exports to non-U.S. markets which more than offsets lower exports to U.S. markets.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are raised from November.  For 2013, small changes are made to the fourth quarter for the major species, based on slaughter data to date.  The forecast for 2014 is raised based on higher expected cattle and hog carcass weights and higher cattle slaughter.  No change is made to 2014 broiler production, but the turkey production forecast is reduced based on hatchery data.  Egg production is reduced slightly for both 2013 and early 2014.

Beef imports are lowered slightly for 2013, but no change is made to 2014.  Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014.  Pork imports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 based on estimates for the third quarter and early fourth quarter and expectations for slightly stronger imports in 2014.  Pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are reduced from last month based on slightly weaker demand in Asia. The 2013 broiler export forecast is lowered slightly based on exports to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.  Turkey exports are raised for 2013 but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.

Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are raised from November as demand for fed cattle remains strong.  Hog prices for 2013 are lowered as fourth-quarter prices have been slightly weaker-than-expected.  The forecast for 2014 is unchanged.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are raised from last month.  Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by expected tight supplies of beef and moderate production increases.  Turkey prices are expected to be supported by slower forecast growth in production.  Egg prices are forecast higher for 2013 and 2014, reflecting current price strength and lower forecast production.

The 2013 milk production forecast is reduced slightly from last month, based on recent estimates of cow numbers.  The forecast for 2014 is raised as higher milk forecast prices and lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in cow numbers and output per cow. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2013 but are unchanged for 2014. On a skims-solids basis, imports are raised in 2013 but unchanged for 2014.  Exports are raised on a fats basis based on the strength of butterfat shipments to non-traditional markets.  On a skims-solids basis, higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey exports are offset by lower lactose exports leading to a lower forecast for 2013, but for 2014, expected strength in NDM results in a higher skim-solids forecast.

For 2013, the cheese price forecast is reduced, reflecting current prices.  However, strength in current prices for butter, NDM, and whey resulted in higher price forecasts for those products.  For 2014, despite higher dairy production, demand strength in importing countries and improving domestic demand in the United States is expected to support prices for all products. The Class III milk price is unchanged for 2013 as lower forecast cheese prices offset higher whey prices but the forecast is raised for 2014 based on higher forecast cheese and whey prices.  The Class IV price forecast is raised for both years on higher butter and NDM prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $19.90 to $20.00 per cwt for 2013 and $19.70 to $20.50 per cwt for 2014.
 
COTTON:  This month’s U.S. cotton estimates for 2013/14 are virtually unchanged from last month.  Production is estimated at 13.1 million bales, as decreases for the Southeastern states are mostly offset by increases in the Delta.  The forecasts for domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks also are unchanged.  The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast to range from 70-78 cents per pound, unchanged at the midpoint but narrowed one cent on each end.

The world 2013/14 cotton estimates include higher beginning stocks, partially offset by lower production, raising ending stocks by less than 1 percent.  Beginning stocks are raised 1.0 million bales for India, based on prior-year reductions in India’s consumption from official sources.  Production is reduced for China and Benin, but is raised for Pakistan.  Global consumption is virtually unchanged, but world import demand is reduced due mainly to larger available supplies in India and Pakistan.

RICE:  Slight changes are made to the U.S. 2013/14 all rice and rice-by-type supply and use balance sheets. All rice imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt (all in long-grain) to 21.0 million based on U.S. Census Bureau data through October and expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.  U.S. 2013/14 beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago.  U.S. 2013/14 rice total use is unchanged from last month—with domestic and residual use and exports forecast at 116.0 million and 100 million cwt, respectively.  The rice-by-class forecasts of domestic and residual use and exports are also unchanged from a month ago. All rice ending stocks at 30.2 million cwt are down 3 percent from a month ago.

The 2013/14 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $14.80 to $15.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.80 to $17.80 per cwt, unchanged from last month.  The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.40 to $16.40 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range.

Global total supplies of rice for 2013/14 are lowered more than the decrease in total use resulting in a drop in world ending stocks.  Global rice production is projected at 470.6 million tons, still a record, but down 2.6 million from last month due primarily to lower forecasts for India and Thailand.  India’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 2.0 million tons to 103.0 million, still the third largest crop on record, due to the impact of torrential rains from a number of tropical cyclones and flooding in northeastern and southeastern regions.  Thailand’s 2013/14 rice production is lowered 0.6 million tons to 20.5 million, still a record, due to an expected decline in the dry-season or off-season rice crop.  Changes to Thailand’s off-season rice pledging program have cut intervention prices and eligible tonnage for each household by 13 percent making it less appealing to Thailand farmers.  The Philippine rice crop is still a record, but is lowered less than 0.1 million tons to 11.6 million due to the impact of Super Typhoon Haiyan.  Despite being one of the strongest storms ever recorded, crop damage from the typhoon is not expected to affect the nation’s rice supply as the impacted regions were not key producing areas, according to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Manila.

Global rice consumption for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 472.9 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month due mostly to a decrease in India.  Global 2013/14 exports are increased due to an increase of 0.5 million tons for Thailand, now forecast at 8.5 million.  World imports are also increased with the Philippines and the European Union up from last month, partially offset by lower imports for Iran and the United States.  World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 104.3 million tons, down 2.2 million from last month, and a decrease of 2.3 million from the year earlier.  Ending stocks are lowered for the European Union, India, Thailand, and the United States. 


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