Hog & Corn Comments 04/28/09 - Hogs caught in aftershock of flu.

CORN - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.78 3/4, High - $3.86, Low - $3.76 3/4, Close - $3.83 1/2 Up $.02 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “It was all about the Swine Flu today and the negative press that comes with it.  It is interesting to see human emotion take hold and panic which is what we saw last night and early this morning in the corn market.  I said in my last post I was looking for $3.65-.67 to be tested again before we go higher (May ‘09 contract) and today our low during the day session was $3.66 and we never looked back.  I have switched my focus from May ‘09 to July ‘09 because of the pending May expiration.  I think this pull back is an excellent opportunity to further cover feed needs as I purchased a June ‘09 $3.80 call and sold a July ‘09 put today for $.08.  There is good support in this area and this is the second time we have made a move lower like this only to come charging right back.  We have a small double bottom for this move at $3.70 in the July ‘09 contract and I fully expect it to hold as our low unless we get a massive outbreak of the Swine Flu that actually requires killing pigs however I don’t see it happening.”

July ‘09 corn: Not much has changed from yesterday as far as my thoughts are concerned.  I still think we have good support in this area and if you don't have feed coverage in place for corn I would look to get coverage in this area.  It was a relatively quiet day in the corn market not much to talk about so I will leave it at that.  I am looking for an early low again tomorrow and a late high in the July '09 contract.  We closed above $3.82 1/2 and if we do it again tomorrow then the market should begin to seek out the $3.95 area.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tomorrow.  Now that I have all my feed needs covered via $3.80 June ‘09 call options to the upside I will look for opportunities to manage any potential equity we acquire and look for a place to exit our short $3.40 July ‘09 puts on a rally.

July ‘09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.01
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.95
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.85 1/2
Today’s close: $3.83 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.82 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.78
(S3) Support 3: $3.76 1/4
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL - July ‘09 Electronic
Open - $306.40, High - $311.20, Low - $303.00, Close - $304.00 Down $2.30
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “Like corn meal was a victim to the panic selling related to the Swine Flu.  As mentioned above I wasn’t friendly meal at the end of last week at all and I expect a possible test of $296.60 in the July ‘09 contract.  Just to make note I have switched my focus from May ‘09 meal to July ‘09 meal due to the contract expiration in the May contract.  I am looking for some more early selling in soybeans and then I think we can put a fork in for the day as I believe we will have traded enough contracts to get through all of the emotion that has come with the Swine Flu.  I have a cycle low on in July ‘09 meal around May 18th so I am in no hurry to buy meal although I did let May ‘09 $320.00 call options turn into long futures Friday and I still have the position for now.  It is on around 55% of my needs but I will monitor this position closely.”

July ‘09 meal: I said not in a hurry to buy meal but we didn't get an early low and a late high like I thought we would today.  I am staying with that thought for tomorrow because the hourly chart was searching for a short-term bottom today which I think will show up in early trade tonight.  I am still looking for a test of $296.60 in the July '09 contract at some point and we may have a chance to get it in the near future as the rumor today was the Chinese were going to cancel some soybean orders.  I look for buying to surface after early selling in tomorrow's session.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tonight and a late high tomorrow.

May ‘09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $311.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $308.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $307.10
Today’s close: $304.00
(S1) Support 1: $303.00
(S2) Support 2: $300.60
(S3) Support 3: $298.10

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $68.15, High - $68.60, Low - $65.65, Close - $66.30 Down $2.35
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “Synthetically the June ‘09 hog futures were trading $3.65 lower on the day when factoring in options.  The limit for the day is only $3.00/cwt in the futures but option could still trade and when you factor in what they did it suggests the June was actually down $3.65/cwt instead of $3.00 like the futures showed.  This is actually a good sign for tomorrow as far as I’m concerned.  The opening today (from a weekly perspective) was bullish based on what I look at on the charts.  If the June ‘09 contract can manage to reverse and move higher we could be setting a bottom.  Now, I didn’t say go buy the market but I would look to trail hedges with a buy stop at $69.20 or purchase a call option against hedges to protect equity if you have any.

I have talked about events before and this is one too only on a larger scale.  With events comes emotion but when you put all of the information down on paper this is just a temporary setback in the futures because Swine Flu IS NOT spread by eating pork.  I am impressed with the Government as they have tried to make it very clear that you cannot get sick from eating properly handled and well cooked pork.  I am looking for tomorrow to have a some more follow through selling and if we gap open lower and then turn around and trade higher on the day there will be a buy signal at $68.90 stop with a risk management sell stop $.25 below the current low at the time you get your fill.

The one wild card here is the media, they can report however they like and I would imagine there will be a fair amount of fear/panic based headlines which may extend the selling in hogs.  I for one don’t believe the selling will last much longer in the hog pit; there really is no reason to at this point.  I will be restructuring my hedges tomorrow to be in a more bullish position while still having coverage in place to the downside.  I want to protect the equity that was gained today as best we can.”

June ‘09 hogs: Well June '09 hogs got hit again today, the only good thing is that we rallied into the close.  There seemed to a decent number of buy orders coming into the market via the Globex.  I said there was a buy signal for today at $68.90 on a stop today but we didn't get there which turned out to be a good thing.  I did move my positions around to provide more upside potential should we get a rally off of these new lows, I rolled down some call options that were out of the money down to $68.00 and $69.00 in the June.  I was wrong on the early low and late high today but I think we should see this action tomorrow.

The cutout was down $1.44 today but it was up $.45 yesterday so with all things considered it isn't that big of a decline in my book but on the same token I trying to be objective when looking at this situation and use logic when thinking instead of emotion and fear.  The market and media does a great job of instilling the latter into us and it feeds on itself.  When I look at the market I try to think about what I know about it.  1.) Swine Flu is providing plenty of negative press, 2.) packers will not do anyone any favors and why should they, it is business for them just as it is for the producer but it stinks they have as much control as they do.  3.) We CAN NOT get swine flu from consumption of pork so there is no fundamental reason at this time (other than import bans from other countries from the select states that have swine flu in the U.S.).  4.) I have a cycle low the end of this week week, 5.) we left a HUGE gap at $71.25 in the June '09 contract's weekly chart and gaps tend to get filled.

After looking at all of this information I ask myself if I want to try and trade the market six times in a day to scalp some small gains for position myself for something bigger down the road.  In my experience I have usually been happier with the positioning approach vs. the trading approach especially when it comes to events.  The big thing is trust your research and have a contingency plan in place if you are wrong but you need to deal with the emotion and keep it under control as much as possible.  If you will read the comments I wrote on Saturday the 25th, (click on the 25th on the archive calendar to the right of the screen) you will see what my thoughts were then and I wrote that in an un-emotional state. 

The market will indeed prove me right or wrong from a market direction perspective but the bottom line is managing your positions and your equity and that is what I look to do.  My CONDITIONAL buy order for tomorrow is IF we open below $65.65 in the June '09 contract then I would have a buy stop at $65.90 with a risk management sell stop about $.25 below the current low at the time of your fill. 

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.  There were good buy orders coming into the market later this afternoon and I expected an early violent sell off and then recovery the balance of the day which we didn't get so I now look for that tomorrow.  I was wrong on today's action but I believe it will happen tomorrow.

June ‘09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-29-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $68.32
(R2) Resistance 2: $67.30
(R1) Resistance 1: $66.675
Today’s close: $66.30
(S1) Support 1: $65.65
(S2) Support 2: New Contract Lows
(S3) Support 3: $

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

Swine Flu - 04/25/09 Market thoughts for Monday, April 27th.

Hog & Corn Comments 04/22/09 - Pork cutout can’t catch a break lately.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.74 1/2, High - $3.78 1/4, Low - $3.70, Close - $3.73 1/2 Down $.00 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had.  Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt.  As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can.  I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.”

May ‘09 corn: $3.76 seems to be the golden number that May '09 corn can't seem to get through and close above.  May is range bound between the 50% and 62% retracement level back to the early March '09 low.  As I have said in some of my more recent posts I have a cycle low due near the 29th of April and I will hold a skeptical attitude toward corn until then and review then.  I am still looking to buy corn at $3.67 1/2 if I can.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tomorrow.  As I said I will continue to try and buy May '09 corn around $3.67 1/2.

May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.83 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.78
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76
Today's close: $3.73 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.72
(S2) Support 2: $3.70
(S3) Support 3: $3.68 1/2
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MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $325.50, High - $329.80, Low - $324.30, Close - $329.80 Up $4.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: "I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels.  I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in lace to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control.  May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market.”

May ‘09 meal: I am surprised May '09 meal did what it did today; we sold off as the day was progressing but it came back strong into the close.  The overnight market set off an INTRA-DAY sell signal on the hourly chart (very short-term) at $328.20 with a protective buy stop at $330.50.  The important number to keep in mind right now is $326.00 as the market settled above it today and if it does again tomorrow then I would say a test of the most recent high of $333.90 is likely. 

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high tonight/tomorrow.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $341.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $333.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $331.00
Today's close: $329.80
(S1) Support 1: $327.90
(S2) Support 2: $326.00
(S3) Support 3: $324.10

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.75, High - $72.80, Low - $71.325, Close - $72.375 Down $.025
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Yesterday I said: “June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and
failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower.  I need to see the June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again.  I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being. "

June ‘09 hogs: I am still looking for that close below $72.175 which looks like it should come tomorrow and then I would be looking for a test of $70.525.  My short-term target on June '09 hogs is $70.525 on gut feel but technically we need a couple of closes below $72.175.  I still have my cycle indicator saying we should stay weak into May 4th so I will remain hedged for now with my upside open until $80.00 if we should get that high.  Once we get closer to May 4th or reach some downside objectives ($69.525 in June '09) I may adjust my positions to become more of a bullish position meaning open the upside completely.  

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an
early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now.  If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.52.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-23-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.95
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.90
Today's close: $72.375
(S1) Support 1: $71.95
(S2) Support 2: $71.35
(S3) Support 3: $70.525

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.70, High - $3.79, Low - $3.68 1/2, Close - $3.74 Up $.04 1/2.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: “My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to.  This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it.  If you have questions about something either email or call me!  I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't.  I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts.  This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday.  

As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night.  We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening.  We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels.”

May ‘09 corn:  As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had.  Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt.  As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can.  I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow.  I will continue to try and buy around $3.67 1/2.

May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.81 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.79
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76 3/4
Today's close: $3.74
(S1) Support 1: $3.73 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.70 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.67 1/2
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MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $319.20, High - $325.50, Low - $317.90, Close - $325.30 Up $6.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: "I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but tomorrow looks like an early low and late high type day.  The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season.  It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move.  I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs.  I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.”

May ‘09 meal: I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels.  I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in place to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control.  May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market. 

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $329.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $327.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $325.50

Today's close: $325.30
(S1) Support 1: $323.70
(S2) Support 2: $322.10
(S3) Support 3: $320.90

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.40, High - $72.75, Low - $72.20, Close - $72.40 Up $.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Thursday I said: “After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009.  Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market.  I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about.  I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong.  Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th."

June ‘09 hogs:  June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower.  I need to see the June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again.  I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being.  

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low and I'm staying hedged for now.  If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.52.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.75
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.75
Today's close: $72.40
(S1) Support 1: $72.20
(S2) Support 2: $71.675
(S3) Support 3: $71.22

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Tue, Apr 21, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Monday's Close:         Fresh 1/4" trim loins steady
to 1.00 lower; butts unevenly steady; sknd hams 20-23 lbs steady, 23-27 lbs
mostly 1.00-3.00 lower; sdls bellies 4.00 lower; lean trimmings not established.
Trading slow to moderate, with mostly light demand and mostly moderate to heavy
offerings.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :             100.0
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :               2.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/21       102.0      59.91   73.12   70.56  38.85 106.46 45.90  72.78
Change :               -0.80   -2.11   -0.44   2.68   1.06  0.23  -4.42
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Tue, Apr 21, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARROWS & GILTS :  1.84 hgr   :  2.70 hgr   :  2.16 hgr   :   .45 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 49.00-64.00 : 49.00-64.00 : 49.00-64.00 : 49.25-60.54
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    60.90    :    62.17    :    61.92    :    58.38
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count      :   32,751    :   18,263    :   23,121    :    9,405
==========================================================================

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.74 3/4, High - $3.84, Low - $3.60 1/2, Close - $3.69 1/2 Down $.06 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: “The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower.  I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill.  I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong.  I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend.  I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.”

May ‘09 corn:  My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to.  This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it.  If you have questions about something either email or call me!  I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't.  I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts.  This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday.  

As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night.  We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening.  We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels. 

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of my comments about high to low movement in the paragraph above.  I will continue to try and buy around $3.65 or HIGHER if it looks like things may turn up.  

_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $326.00, High - $331.00, Low - $318.50, Close - $319.20 Down $7.40
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Thursday I said: "Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels.  The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low.  There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts.  I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.”

May ‘09 meal: I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but tomorrow looks like an early low and late high type day.  The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season.  It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move.  I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs.  I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $328.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $326.20
(R1) Resistance 1: $322.30
Today's close: $319.20
(S1) Support 1: $318.50
(S2) Support 2: $315.90
(S3) Support 3: $312.40

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $73.20, High - $73.20, Low - $71.675, Close - $72.40 Down $1.325
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly
Thursday I said: “The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity.  Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened.  The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day.  As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract."

June ‘09 hogs:  After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009.  Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market.  I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about.  I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong.  Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th.  

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now.  If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Wednesday then I am looking for a test of $70.525.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $73.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $72.95
(R1) Resistance 1: $72.725
Today's close: $72.30
(S1) Support 1: $71.95
(S2) Support 2: $71.675
(S3) Support 3: $72.00

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Mon, Apr 20, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Friday's Close:         Fresh bone-in loins mostly
weak; butts mostly 1.00 higher; processor cuts not tested; lean trimmings steady.
Trading slow to moderate, with light to moderate demand and mostly moderate
offerings.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :              85.5
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :               9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/20        94.5      60.71   75.23   71.00  36.17 105.40 45.67  77.19
Change :               -0.17    2.91    0.96  -0.63  -0.42 -3.71    unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Mon, Apr 20, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARROWS & GILTS :   .70 hgr   :   .21 hgr   :   .57 hgr   :  1.28 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 48.25-62.16 : 49.50-62.16 : 49.50-62.16 : 48.25-62.00
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    59.00    :    59.38    :    59.77    :    57.93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count      :   27,381    :    9,879    :   15,390    :   11,547
==========================================================================

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.85 1/4, High - $3.89 1/2, Low - $3.80 3/4, Close - $3.85 3/4 Up $.01 1/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: “Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day.  Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging.  As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can.  $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83.  I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own.  I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears.  I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high”

May ‘09 corn:  The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower.  I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill.  I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong.  I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend.  I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of the aforementioned profit-taking going into the weekend.  I will continue to try and buy around $3.76 3/4.  

_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $317.10, High - $329.40, Low - $316.80, Close - $329.40 Up $12.10
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher
Yesterday I said: "I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.  I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high.  I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there.  Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow.”

May ‘09 meal: Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels.  The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low.  There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts.  I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I see a potential sell signal ONLY if we open at $329.50 or higher in tonight's trade.  If the market opens slightly lower, then it is primed for a follow through move higher tomorrow.  Stay objective in this market and don't chase it if you don't have coverage in place; if you need to protect meal use a call option for now and buy on a dip.

 May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $348.70
(R2) Resistance 2: $340.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $332.80
Today's close: $329.40
(S1) Support 1: $324.00
(S2) Support 2: $321.10
(S3) Support 3: $318.60

 June ‘09 hogs:  The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity.  Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened.  The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day.  As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract.  

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  Once again the cutout was up by $.65 today and should provide some support for tomorrow's market; however, nothing is a "secret" anymore so I expect that some of today's positive cutout news has already been traded.  I am sticking to my thoughts of early high and late low for tomorrows June '09 hog trade.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $74.85
(R2) Resistance 2: $74.10
(R1) Resistance 1: $73.75
Today's close: $73.275
(S1) Support 1: $73.05
(S2) Support 2: $72.80
(S3) Support 3: $72.00

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Thu, Apr 16, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Wednesday's Close:      Fresh loins generally steady
to firm; butts mostly steady; sknd hams 23-27 lbs 3.00 lower, other weights not
tested; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings steady. Trading slow, with light
to moderate demand and mostly light offerings.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :             72.75
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :               6.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/16        78.8      61.91   77.65   69.43  35.79 107.54 48.73  76.71
Change :                0.65    2.02   -0.10   1.42   4.35 -0.80    unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Afternoon Price report was available at the time of this release so click here

for the report.

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.94, High - $3.94 3/4, Low - $3.84, Close - $3.84 1/2 Down $.09 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: “ I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4.  Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04.  I expect the May ‘09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.”

May ‘09 corn:  Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day.  Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging.  As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can.  $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83.  I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own.  I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.  I don't look for a test of R3 tomorrow but I think the market will be looking for this week's bottom tomorrow. 

_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $315.80, High - $321.80, Low - $314.50, Close - $317.30 Up $1.00
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said: “I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10.  Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20.  I expect the May ‘09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.  **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart.  If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.**  This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long.  As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.”

May ‘09 meal: The early high and late low pattern worked on May '09 meal today but I think we may have some additional downside tomorrow.  The signal that I talked about in the paragraph above was executed today and I did take the trade however I exited the straight futures portion of our position at $318.10 instead of the $318.50 stop like I said yesterday.  I still have the call spreads in place to the upside in the event I am wrong because we still need protection.  I will look for an opportunity to purchase these futures at a lower price if we can.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high.  I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high.  I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there.  Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow. 

May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $321.80
(R2) Resistance 2: $319.30
(R1) Resistance 1: $318.60
Today's close: $317.30
(S1) Support 1: $315.50
(S2) Support 2: $313.10
(S3) Support 3: $310.90

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $72.75, High - $73.475, Low - $72.00, Close - $73.05 Up $.45
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Yesterday I said: “I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05.  Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25.  I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses.  I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June ‘09 contract."

June ‘09 hogs:  I haven't altered my thoughts on the June '09 hog contract for now as I believe it has some room to move to the downside in the next week or so.  Cash and cutout were both higher this afternoon so it should give the market a small boost tomorrow.  Today we retraced around 62% of yesterday's move which is typical but the low of today also completed a 62% retracement back to our low of $70.52 from March 30th.  The market is trending lower but I still need to see a close below $72.70 if we are going to test $70.52 and we didn't get it today. 

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. Seasonally we tend to move lower from today's close until the April 30th close and I will stick with the 80% odds of that seasonality along with the other signals that show up to support that type of move.

June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $74.25
(R2) Resistance 2: $73.75
(R1) Resistance 1: $73.475
Today's close: $73.05
(S1) Support 1: $72.55
(S2) Support 2: $72.15
(S3) Support 3: $70.525

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Wed, Apr 15, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Tuesday's Close:        Fresh bone-in loins 2.00-6.00
higher; butts steady to 3.00 lower; sknd hams 20-27 lbs 2.00 higher; sdls
bellies not established; lean trimmings steady. Trading slow, with light to
moderate demand and offerings.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :              58.5
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :              15.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/15        73.5      61.26   75.63   69.53  34.38 103.19 49.53  76.71
Change :                0.60   -1.33    0.68  -5.46  -0.13  5.98   0.03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Wed, Apr 15, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARROWS & GILTS :   .83 hgr   :   .70 hgr   :   .79 hgr   :   .78 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 46.00-58.45 : 52.70-58.45 : 46.00-58.45 : 47.50-58.00
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    56.09    :    56.50    :    56.69    :    55.05
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count      :   23,141    :    9,987    :   14,840    :    8,101
==========================================================================

_________________________________________________________________________

CORN - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $3.87, High - $3.99, Low - $3.85 1/4, Close - $3.94 1/4 Up $.06 3/4.
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said:  "I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather.  Support for tomorrow’s market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4.  Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94.  I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet.  I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before."

May '09 corn:  I didn't get my sideways market like I thought I would today but we did hold support near my first number of $3.85 3/4 but I was off by $.05 on the upside for resistance.  You will notice I said I was waiting for $3.76 1/2, which I still am but I do have a call spread in place in case I am wrong so we still have protection in place if the market moves higher.  We didn't manage to close above the 50% retracement level of $3.95 1/4 so as of now this is still just a bounce, we need to close above $3.95 1/4 for a couple days before look to $4.07 as a target. 

Bottom line:  I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4.  Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04.  I expect the May '09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.

MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic
Open - $312.80, High - $319.00, Low - $312.40, Close - $316.30 Up $3.20
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

Yesterday I said:  "I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow.  Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80.  Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there.  Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow’s meal trade.  We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May ‘09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation."

May '09 meal:  The early high did come in the first hour of trade today as well as the low in the last hour of trade but the low was still above my first support point and we nailed the resistance with my second number from yesterday.  After making a high at $319.00 again today we have a small double top formation for the time being.  I am still in the camp that meal looks toppy at this level and I don't want to be an aggressive owner of futures or cash at these levels.  I have a majority of ownership via known risk call spreads which I intend to keep for the moment.

Bottom line:  I'm looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10.  Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20.  I expect the May '09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.  **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart.  If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.**  This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long.  As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.

HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX
Open - $74.15, High - $74.25, Low - $72.45, Close - $72.60 Down $1.50
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Friendly

Yesterday I said:  "I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow as we are approaching the 15th of April and the May and June ‘09 contracts have a sizable lead on the cash index.  I expect support to be $73.97, $73.72 and $73.35.   I am looking for resistance to be $74.40, $74.82 and then $75.90 but I don’t expect this level to be touched tomorrow.  I am looking for a near-term top in hogs this week and the beginning of a small retracement of the recent move higher.

June '09 hogs:  I didn't do very well in projecting accurate support and resistance for today's trade but the market action projections were spot on with an early high and a late low.  I know I know rocket science right?  : )  All kidding aside, I don't think the June '09 hog contract has much upside left for the next week or so.  I believe this is the beginning of a retracement in what should be a longer-term move higher.  

Bottom line:  I'm looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.  I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05.  Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25.  I expect the June '09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses.  I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June '09 contract.

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Tue, Apr 14, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Monday's Close:         Fresh loins firm to 5.00
higher; butts generally steady; sknd hams 17-20 lbs 2.00-4.00 lower from last
quote, other weights not established; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings
steady to 1.00 higher. Trading slow to moderate, with mostly moderate demand
and light to moderate offerings.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :             86.88
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :              10.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/14        96.9      60.66   76.95   68.85  39.84 103.32 43.55  76.68
Change :                0.67    2.75   -0.30  -0.10  -0.64  0.12    unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Tue, Apr 14, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARROWS & GILTS :   .01 hgr   :   .26 hgr   :   .17 hgr   :   .24 lwr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 46.75-57.23 : 48.50-57.09 : 48.50-57.23 : 46.75-56.08
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    55.19    :    55.74    :    55.86    :    54.27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count      :   26,504    :   11,039    :   15,382    :   10,942
==========================================================================

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

May '09 corn opened the day session on a weaker note with Crude Oil down over $3.00 a barrel and the Dow Jones off by more than 100 points.  We still haven't cleared any area to make me extremely concerned about the drawback we've had in corn as a matter of fact it has been somewhat anticipated.  I am only long 25% of needs with $2.80 puts in place to cover me to the downside; I also have a call spread on to the upside to make sure we have the coverage we need if I am wrong.  I exited all of my long futures positions around $4.03 1/2 and re-entered 25% of them at $4.02 because the market didn't break as soon as I thought it would.  I also placed some cheap call spreads in place last Thursday to get through the weekend and/or until I re-establish my long positions against my $2.80 puts.  

I had orders in today to buy another 50% of my needs at $3.76 1/2 in the May '09 contract but we didn't get that low.  We are now in the time-frame in which the corn market will be controlled to some degree by weather and planting progress.  As of right now I am looking for a test of $3.76 in the May '09 contract and possibly a test of $3.68 1/2 if the weather stay's nice.  Forecast's change and as of right now my cycle indicator says there isn't much to look forward to in the next couple of weeks in corn.

Bottom line - I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather.  Support for tomorrow's market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4.  Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94.  I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet.  I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before.

MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $311.10, High - $315.00, Low - $307.80, Close - $313.10 Up $1.90
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

I said in one of my previous posts that I exited some of my meal because wanted to protect equity but would stop back into the market if I was wrong.  I was wrong and therefore bought meal on about 40% of needs with futures against my long puts and then purchased a cheap call spread to give me coverage to the upside if the market makes an extended move.  I am not sold on the idea the May '09 meal market is going to sky rocket from here but I know I am not smarter than the market.  I see signs on the charts that tell me meal is looking for a top thus I have less aggressive ownership in futures and more in a know risk position.  I had a sell signal in May '09 soybeans on Thursday at $10.23 1/2 which is still good even after today's action, it will be void if we touch $10.31 1/2 before a sell off.  

Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow.  Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80.  Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there.  Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow's meal trade.  We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May '09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation. 

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Mon, Apr 13, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Friday's Close:         Fresh bone-in loins not tested;
butts 3.00-4.00 higher; sknd hams 20-23 lbs 2.00 higher from last quote, other
weights not established; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings steady. Trading
slow, with light to moderate demand and light offerings.



-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS          :             22.75
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :               9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/13        31.8      59.99   74.20   69.15  39.94 103.96 43.43  76.68
Change :                0.51   -0.09    2.72   0.13   1.57  0.85   0.02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Mon, Apr 13, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
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   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
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BARROWS & GILTS :   .06 hgr   :   .64 lwr   :   .31 lwr   :  1.38 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 46.75-57.09 : 48.00-57.09 : 47.00-57.09 : 46.75-56.99
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    55.20    :    55.46    :    55.69    :    54.57
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Head Count      :   13,144    :    5,254    :    7,102    :    5,849
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As a review from yesterday I said "I expect to see an early high and a late low tomorrow as enthusiasm expires over today's USDA report findings.  I look for early resistance tonight at $4.06-.07 then all the way up to $4.13 (don't think we will get there) and support should be $4.03, $3.99 3/4 and $3.96 1/2 but I think the $4.00 area should hold pretty good support.  ***IF MAY '09 OPENS ABOVE $4.06 TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A MORE NEGATIVE TONE TO TOMORROW THAT WHAT I HAVE DISCUSSED.***  I don't think we will open above $4.06 but I wanted to point it out if it does so you know what to expect from the market." 

As stated above the enthusiasm from yesterday's acreage report seems to have run its course.  I thought the $4.00 area would provide good support but not so.  The crude oil market was down most of the day and the U.S. Dollar Index wasn't doing anything crazy so I attribute today's action to the corn market trading the corn market and nothing else.  The May '09 contract broke through the low side of my support point today but closed at $3.96 just 1/2 cent off the support level.  To no surprise it didn't reach my resistance level either because of the move we made yesterday. 

I exited some short $3.60 May '09 put options today (it was the short side of a put spread against long futures) for $.03 just to take them off of the books and leave my long $3.80 put in place to leave the downside open if the market decides to turn and head south (unlikely).  I am still in the camp of having good strategies in place to allow for upside participation in the market as I think we have a shot at testing $4.40 in the May '09 futures in the next 30 days.

Bottom line - Nothing happened today to make me think yesterday's rally was a fluke, as a matter of fact today's action was perfectly normal in my opinion.  We retraced 50% of yesterday's move and held that support level which suggests we could make another run at the most recent high of $4.06 in the near future.  I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $3.93, $3.90 1/2 and resistance at $3.99 1/2, $4.01 and $4.06 and if we get excited $4.13 however I think it is unlikely for tomorrow. 

MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $293.00, High - $298.30, Low - $291.80, Close - $294.30 Down $1.00
Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher

I said yesterday " the close on May '09 meal was a positive one today but like corn I think we may have gotten too excited to keep a strong rally like this going for two consecutive days.  I'm looking for a steady to better open tonight only to find resistance at $296.40 then $298.70.  Support should be around $293.20, $292.30 and $291.30.  I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow in May '09 meal."

My support and resistance levels were much better in meal today than they were in corn.  May '09 meal got within $.40 of my top resistance level and $.50 of my lowest support level.  Like corn, May '09 meal retraced near 50% of yesterday's day session move and bounced from there.  I still like the prospect of a higher meal market through time and want upside coverage in place as we move forward.  That being said I exited my long meal contracts today at $294.80ish and will look to re-enter the market at a lower level if possible otherwise I will have my stop above the market to get back long if I'm wrong.  I currently have a $280.00 May '09 put in place to protect downside risk on my futures (exited today) and that's what I will purchase against if the market gets to $284.00.  $284.00 is just above a gap that was left in the hourly chart yesterday and they are typically a target to go back and fill.

Bottom line - I am still bullish meal and soybeans but I am still looking for a tad more downside in the May '09 meal contract.  I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $291.80, $288.1 and $285.50.  I see resistance at $295.90, $296.40 and $298.30.

Reviewing yesterday I said "The market held just above my $70.52 support number and traded .52 above my high end resistance number and closed above it for the day.  The issue I have with the market doing this today is its quarter/month end and strange things can happen on days like today.  I am not buying into today's trade action just yet, because there is no evidence of a stronger cash market and cutout dropped by $.99 today.  I look for an early high and a late low tomorrow with resistance at $72.725 then $73.20 and support should be at $71.45 and $70.675.  Cutout was down today which is in line with what the short-term charts show for tomorrow, a negative trade day.  Tomorrow is the cycle low but it is more of a general area it isn't a signal to buy so as I said yesterday I will continue to look for signs in the market that suggest the move lower is over."

Like I said it seems like funny things happen on the last day of the month and especially the quarter in some markets particularly the hog market.  Today confirmed that thought with June '09 giving back most of its gains from yesterday.  Cash hogs are still in the toilet and the prospects of higher prices don't look that great at the moment and cutout has shown us over the course of two days that product isn't moving that well either.  I remain hedged with upside potential to $80.00 in the June '09 contract.  I am looking for signs of a market bottom but they are not showing up we didn't buy into the head fake the market gave us yesterday.  

Bottom line - I'm looking for June '09 to continue lower tomorrow and I am expecting an early low AND high, I think the high and low of the day session will be during the first hour of trade tomorrow.  The cutout was down $1.69 (I wish it were an April Fool's joke!) today so I expect nerves of those that are long to be on high alert and just puke out of positions as we can easily make new contract lows tomorrow.  I am looking for a test of $69.52 tomorrow and I will need to see how we close tomorrow to decide if my cycle low this week is going to have any merit.  Support in June '09 hogs for tomorrow should be $70.675, $69.52 then limit lower at $68.45.  Resistance should be $71.52 and $71.70 but I don't think we will touch either of them, tomorrow could be ugly.

NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA     Wed, Apr 01, 2009     USDA Market News

USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of:  3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.

Compared to Tuesday's Close:        Fresh 1/4" trim loins firm;
butts steady to 1.00 lower; sknd hams 1.00 lower; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs 1.00
lower; lean trimmings not established. Trading mostly moderate, with moderate
demand and moderate to heavy offerings.



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Loads PORK CUTS          :            126.38
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK  :               1.0
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USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

           Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
        53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
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         Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
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04/01       127.4      55.00   66.26   62.59  39.61  98.36 36.39  74.90
Change :               -1.69   -4.46    0.03  -0.20   0.64 -1.97  -0.49
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NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA     Wed, Apr 01, 2009     USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
                :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
   no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARROWS & GILTS :   .31 lwr   :   .10 lwr   :   .54 lwr   :   .02 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 45.25-59.26 : 45.25-59.26 : 45.25-59.26 : 45.50-58.11
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    56.23    :    57.35    :    56.94    :    54.66
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Head Count      :   24,765    :   11,167    :   16,568    :    7,827
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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.